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Showing content with the highest reputation since 14/08/19 in Posts

  1. 2 points
    Recent attention to a looming recession has come about due yield spreads turning negative - see FRED. 2yr v 10yr seems to be preferred. It's been a pretty good indicator in the past and for those that say "it's different this time" - I doubt it. Average time from inversion to recession is quoted at 17 months. If that's right then it puts it late 2020 possibly early 21. We now have the longest bull market ever recorded and it's been driven by massive injections from the central bank needle. Drugs work until they don't. This fits with my motto "It doesn't matter.....until it does!" Remember this bull, rising since the GFC, has risen primarily on "bad" news ( i.e.the needles comin'). Any hint it will be withdrawn is met with the screaming abdabs. It's effectiveness is diminished after each fresh dose. You need more and more to achieve the desired effect. The US having the least smelling pile, now has rates at 2%. It's reckoned you need 3% -4% minimum to fight a recession and why, ideally, the Fed wants it higher. The firepower for easing in that situation isn't there. So more Quantative it is. Bull markets die on euphoria. It doesn't feel quite like that yet so I'd say we're in a wave 4 which will be exited on the next QE dose. The Fed will probably paint itself into a corner and be unable to fight the next recession with rate cuts when it comes. All boats (equity and bonds) rose on this last tide so expect the opposite by which time all thought of central banks being the great panacea will have evaporated.
  2. 2 points
    I think they were referring to short vs long positioning stats, may have changed by now.
  3. 1 point
    Mercury, of course, how you label your wave counts is entirely up to you. Corrective waves (according to EWT) are in the following form: ZigZags, Flats (Regular & Expanded) & Triangles. Complicated corrections are usually a combination. A common one is a double Zig-Zag. Triangles can often found in wave 4 or B but never wave 2. Motive waves are usually pretty simple to spot even for a novice. The problem always occur with corrections in my experience. Knowing the substructure count is critical in that respect. ZigZag (5-3-5), Flat (3-3-5), Triangle (3-3-3-3-3). There is often an alternative count (although one will always be preferred) and only subsequent price action reveals which is correct. There are a few rules, but really not many, and some guidelines. With respect Mercury there is no rule nor guideline that I have ever seen that says "the move does not penetrate above the previous high" for a corrective wave!! For those that don't have the time nor inclination you can subscribe to various services. In the hands of an expert, when combined with Fibonacci ratios, trend lines and sentiment indicators it is, IMHO, a powerful tool.
  4. 1 point
    A bearish engulfing pattern appears on Dow daily chart and have bounced off 20EMA.
  5. 1 point
    resistance became support ....................
  6. 1 point
    Interesting point @dmedin and one I considered when transferring from individual stocks to indices. The dual issue I experienced was the need to track individual announcements on the financial calendar on stocks and the "rising tide raises all boats" factor of central bank policy. Better to trade the index in these crazy times as even rubbish stock seem to get a lift. Later, when the dust settles on a crash, maybe we can get back to value investing but for now I don't see the point.
  7. 1 point
    There is a distinct different between the price you pay as a consumer and the price the farmers are paid. Consider that the commodity market dictated that the price of a pound of coffee was in 2011 was $31 and now it is $9. I don't know how much a farmer or local merchant might get vs those prices but let's say it is the same % or similar then the farmers have experienced a 70% decline in their revenue. Even if the buyers have been supportive, and retail prices only seem to go up right, then they will still have seen at least a 50% decline I would hazard. That would be enough to to drive me to something else... Also in the programme I saw it was reported that growers were struggling and leaving the industry. One coffee roaster had actually vertically expanded into growing to secure supply. I took this at face value. In any case my point was simply to illustrate a basic fundamental that triggered me to look at the charts. The power of the thesis is in the charts, the fundamentals merely support the reasons why the price charts have done what they have done since 1975 at least and will likely so so again.
  8. 1 point
    I was watching a TV series called "This Giant Beast That is the Global Economy " starring and narrated by Kal Penn, actor in "House" and speech writer with Obama. It doesn't really cover any new concepts, although there were a few interesting observation in their, like what the most important commodity in the global economy is... (I wont spoil it for anyone who hasn't seen it yet and wants to but it was not that obvious and is blindingly obvious in retrospect). One thing that did pop out that I though was relevant for the forum was that the price of coffee is way too low for farmers to make money. The logical conclusion of this is that they will farm something else and supply will be curtailed and then prices will go up, the basic perpetual cycle of supply and demand change. This very basic fundamentals proposition motivated me to look at coffee on the charts to see if there was a building opportunity and I think there may be. I will preface my analytical assessment with the statement that I know very little about the coffee industry other than how to select a great bean type as a consumer and make a great flat white. If I look at the long term charts (Quarterly/Monthly) I see that coffee trades in a large range from about 4000 to 34000 at the extremes (or $0.40 - $3.40 per US pound if you prefer). This seems to represent the classic economics supply and demand curve in candle pricing form. With the available data we can see a set of cycles between the market top and bottom zones that in the main run fairly directly between the zones. At this point my thesis would be that if you catch the market right at either extreme you can hold until price reaches the opposite end of the range (net 30,000 points or so). For best results you want a straight run rather than one with large reversals. If I apply EWT to the chart I see a series of 1-5s and A-B-C, although this is arguably less relevant than for markets that do not operate between such obvious ranges as the key is obviously to look at trading when the market enters, or more correctly, then exits the range extremes zones. Still it is interesting to see that the run up in the mid 70s was a motive 1-5 that still marks the high point in price. After that I see a series of massive A-B-Cs culminating in a slightly lower high extreme price in the late 1990s than that printed in the 70s (still went into the market top zone though). This high then produced a 1-5 down to the lowers price on the chart around 2002. The next move up to 2011 could be either an A-B-C or a 1-5 and the current move looks decidedly like an A-B-C. If the 2011 move is an A-B-C and the current move is also an A-B-C then I would expect the current move to be a larger wave B that ends higher than the previous low and spawns a massive rally that ends higher than the previous high and is a 1-5 that goes pretty much straight up. Either way the current move is and A-B-C so will end higher than the previous low and as most of the bear moves end inside the market bottom zone I can reasonable conclude that this move will end somewhere between 4200 - 8000. Let's look at a shorter term charts to see if we can refine this. I have 2 weekly charts attached, the first of which shows the bearish move down from 2011 and the second of which zooms in on the final wave C of C. In the first chart I can see a clear A-B-C structure to all 3 of the larger A-B-C wave form of the bearish move. This confirms an A-B-C and not a 1-5 and also confirms that the market is in a final wave C of C, which will spawn that Bull market. I also have a nice upper resistance trend line and 2 possible lower lines (both may be valid) with a lot of good current (green circle) and prior pivot (purple circle) touches. If we look at the second weekly chart the wave C of the larger wave C (from the wave B pink) is cutting a clean 1-5 pattern and looks to have just completed the 3-4 part of this. The rally to wave 4 (blue) is in a-b-c, which you would expect of a retrace so the next bearish phase should be a final wave 5 that will mark the end of the overall bear market. I would be looking for price to hit one of the lower channel lines but inside or on the 8000 level ideally. Note all previous moves that did not make it to the extremes zone were not wave Cs (As or Bs) and all the 5 did. So the conclusion to this is that all wave Cs or motives 1-5s penetrate the extremes zones of the range but As and Bs tend not to. Also 1-5 waves tend to run hard and fast and make more extreme price tops. The current move looks line a Wave C that would spawn a 1-5. Finally looking at the daily chart the current bearish phase looks to have put in a 1-2 (green) of that final 1-5 I am looking for. I will be tracking this for the 3-4-5 and other signals to see if I can spot the turn. As and when price breaks out of the upper weekly trend line resistance I think a strong bull market will be in play that could be a motive 1-5 that makes it into the extreme market top zone. In all of the bull turns through there has been a strong short term retrace so the best strategy might be to let the turn happen and spot the initial retrace turn. In these agri type commodities getting in on such a range extremes turn has to be the way to play it. I will be tracking this one with interest for a while but it will require some time still to mature I think.
  9. 1 point
    Yeah try the API if you want it. https://labs.ig.com/rest-trading-api-reference/service-detail?id=530 If you want something I could code it up.
  10. 1 point
    No music, All my trading is automated these days on a server in the cloud. Or at least 99% of it is. I do like to have a bit of excitement now and again.
  11. 1 point
    I don’t listen to any music when I trade. I like to trade in silence but each trader will have their own preference. No amount of music can help a trader if they have not put in the required time and effort in acquiring the skills necessary to trade.
  12. 1 point
    Hi all, I would like to share my trade idea on HSI, hope to get advise from all the great people here. 1. HSI remains weak on Daily chart. 2. Multiple week long protests and weak GDP weighs on Hong Kong market in the weeks to come. 3. Although HSI may find some relief from a recently announced economic package and any positive US-China trade talks, negative sentiment remains Trade Idea: 1. Current bull on daily chart is strong, it is likely exceed 20 EMA and extend beyond it. 2. Wait for candle to close below 20 EMA again. 3. Short with TP of 25000 for ~1000 pips. SL at 500 pips for R:R of 1:2
  13. 1 point
    @dmedin, If Gold hits your price target and you open a long trade then just hold that trade and do nothing clever until the trend reverses. Set your stop loss appropriately based on your risk tolerance and how much you are willing to lose of your capital or profits if you initiate a trailing stop. I wait until I am in profit to initiate my trailing stop. If you have a strong conviction based on the price action and certain signals and indicators then add on any dips. Keep is as simple as you can. The key is to make as much profit as you can. The longer you are in a rising trend then the greater your chance of a winning trade and greater profit potential. If you have the risk appetite for it then use leverage on your trade to increase the profits but use a robust risk management strategy before doing so.
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
    The most profitable way to trade ... the evidence says you should buy and hold.
  16. 1 point
    Hi, just check you have gone through the steps as in the link below, if yes then to link mt4 to IG open mt4, 'File' > 'Open an account' and click on the IG data feeds (live or demo) click 'next' and follow the instructions. I think for live the logon and password details are sent by email but for demo they are just made up by the platform. https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-platforms/metatrader-4/download-mt4
  17. 1 point
    Maybe he's already in deep trouble and this is his 'hail Mary'. It's a bad idea to trust anyone in the financial world ...
  18. 1 point
    Of the specific event @AbDXB1345 maybe counter parties with exposure to GE, whether the insurance companies referenced by Markopolos or suppliers to GE, especially any with a significant portion of their business with GE. As GE has been a poor performer for decades it is not likely to be a huge impacting factor for investors as Enron was in 2000, given that Enron was riding high. For me it is more about a signal of a wider problem within the economic data being reported. It is rarely just one organisation that is hiding things, typically this is tip of the iceberg stuff and the contagion risk is that it spreads to the wider market and that will be enough to trigger a collapse event and a resulting recession or worse.
  19. 1 point
    @JamesIG, Thanks for the clarification.
  20. 1 point
    Thanks James, this was of great help. Where can I find the epic for each ETF so I can trade it via the API?
  21. 1 point
    @JamesIG Thanks for the reply!
  22. 1 point
    Unfortunately daily statements can't be turned off as it's a legal requirement for us to send them out whenever there is a change to your account. The only thing i can suggest is setting up a rule in your email client to automatically move them to a specific folder if you so wish. With that said, its worth keeping an eye on them so you're fully aware of what is happening on your account.
  23. 1 point
    We have this tool which may be of use https://etfscreener.ig.com With US ETFs it's worth remembering that there may be some which you can't trade (based on your personal circumstance). That screener should show you all the ones we currently offer. If you would like one which isn't on the list, let us know and we can look to add.
  24. 1 point
    In reply to Mercury I'd add the comment that gold and the precious metals group (PMG) tend to do well in a low interest rate environment. They do not pay a dividend so the premium for holding is therefore reduced. Gold in most other currencies (other than USD) has hit new record highs. It is especially so with a low REAL (as opposed to nominal) rate. We have the low rate but for gold and PMGS to really take off we need a bit more inflation. Sure there is a geo-political "safe haven" element but I'd say that has been more evident in the huge sovereign bond market and forcing short term rates even lower. Rates appear to be going more negative and this will be good for gold. If we get more inflation it will positively rocket. I'd be a buyer of gold on dips - which is what's happening at the moment after a good run up.
  25. 1 point
    Adding this video link to this thread. 'Why Volatility is the Key to Trading'. It's an hour long 'how to' use futures options trade positioning to indicate possible direction in spot markets using usd/jpy as an example. It's a bit rushed to get it all in in one hour and gets a bit maths thick in places but don't worry as the skew calculations are available daily from many sources on the web, it just showing how it's done, but well worth sticking to as you end up with a chart with Bollinger Bands morphing into futures positioning high/low bands. So you have an indicator that's using real time data to plot direction not historical data. Interesting stuff.
  26. 1 point
    Many simply expect far too much from TA, certainly there is no simple yes/no indicator that will have a positive probability because if there was everyone would use it and the market would simply arbitrage it out. All indicators can only be based on historic data and we've all seen the warnings that past performance does not indicate the future. Nearly all indicators I've seen are stamped by the creator with the warning it should not be used in isolation and that would be right. I would consider the natural wave or zig zag patterns of charts as a base, some like to count bars and try to see repeated patterns in the ratios, some like to name the waves look for the ratio of the large ones (it's 1/7, I saw that down the beach one day) but I wouldn't really bother with any of that. If a combination of indicators is needed I would look to be matching the frequency's of a fast and a slow oscillator to apply to a trending chart as probably having the best chance with a view to achieving a slightly better win probability than 50/50 and a risk/reward ratio of n number of trades of around 1:2. That would be enough.
  27. 1 point
    Time is a problem @dmedin, no question. It seems there are people on the forum who devote 100% of their working time to trading but most of us must juggle it with other things. Frankly I am not one of those who even wants to be sitting in front of the charts all day, it would drive me nuts and it is only really necessary is you are trading very short time frame charts. I did try it at first, mostly because I had no trust in a system, or the market for that matter. Mostly I had no trust in myself and for good reason, I had not put in the work and taken the time to gain the experience. And I lost and lost. Where else would you see people diving into something they have no training and experience of and risking their hard earned capital. "Down the dog" maybe... But then I stopped and decided to take a different approach. Everything I read led me to a simple conclusion. Professional or retail it doesn't matter, if you are competing against the high frequency algo traders and prop traders you need to take a different approach. It seemed to me that most, if not all, of the people who had been on this journey and successfully broke through the early days of losses and stumbling about and frustration and negativity did a few things in common as follows: Got a grip on themselves and the emotional part of their brain that was driving them to jump in at wrong times without a clear premise. This is chiefly about controlling the fear of missing out syndrome and dreaming of another life. Took the time to study and develop a methodology for analysing, trading and managing their account in a professional business like manner. Changed the way they traded to few bigger better at longer time frames. I am sure there are people on this forum who will disagree and tell you that you can make money on day-trading and scalping but if it doesn't suit you then don't do it. It didn't suit me, I couldn't see the woods for the trees down at 5mins etc. So I tried something else and it works much better for me. When asked about his rules for investing Warren Buffett replied, "don't lose money". It was a bit of a joke but there was a serious message there, the key is to limit losses and ride winners so as to max your profits. In this way you don't need to worry about hit rates and pushing the 50/50 coin toss to 55/45 in your favour. You just need to win big and lose small. I will typically lose 8 out of 10 times but I scratch quickly if price action does not go according to my thesis and move stops to break even as soon as possible. If on the 9th or 10th try I hit it then I am a net winner. Trading is a long term activity. The key to success is to be net ahead over a year not a day or a week. You cannot think in terms of getting a regular income, it just doesn't work like that. Also you have to take some profits when offered to keep your account ticking over or you risk running out of runway. Regarding your point on wave recognition, it is a problem but it is the same for everyone, professional and retail alike. It is called price discovery, the market participants watch the evolution of price and take into account other factors (like fundamentals) and create a premise. Then they test this premise by placing a trade. This is simply how it works. In terms of my specific comment, I really don't care at this point whether US large caps have just made a wave B or a wave 2 as the next wave in either case (C and 3 respectively) will be in the same direction, which is up. I will assess the price action as the move develops and make decisions about when to cash and when to reverse later based on my analysis. Deciding when to cash is where you want to be, not that it is much easier than anything else in trading... EWT note: an A-B-C can look very similar to a 1-2-3 (or 5) so context is critical.
  28. 1 point
    Are we stupid for investing so much time, concentration and precious brainpower in learning TA when it is simply wrong most of the time? Aren't most professional technical analysts paid to provide analysis for traders, instead of actually trading their own money?
  29. 1 point
    you haven't had time to watch it and by the way didn't you once ask how do you use options positioning as an indicator? well it's all there.
  30. 1 point
    Reuters headline at 2pm on 15/08/19: Futures show markets headed for sharp fall on trade war deterioration fears! Reuters headline at 6pm on 15/08/19: Market rallies as trade war relations improve! I had a vague feeling that trading was a mug's game before, but with the passing of each day I'm starting to feel something like contempt and aversion to this stupidity.
  31. 1 point
    Target of 550 then see where it goes from there.
  32. 1 point
  33. 1 point
    For a daily chart choose a higher level pivot, the monthly here is quite interesting.
  34. 1 point
    I love this game, anyone can play and IG clients are always at it. During multi-year bull runs you will find the majority of IG clients are trying to short the market, usually between 60 and 70% at any given time, brilliant. I often wonder what makes it psychologically so enticing to keep trying to pick tops? I personally think it's because people look at the chart and see price is at the top of the screen ergo it must be about to turn round and come down right? I also wonder if the reverse is true, that in a bear market do IG clients keep trying to pick the bottom and buy? Bear markets come round so infrequently I've not had a chance to check. The two charts side by side below, are either of these the 'top'? who knows, realistically the 'top' can only be determined with hindsight, 'keeping your power dry' through multi-year bull runs waiting for the big crash just doesn't make any sense, play the chart in front of you not the one you hope to see in the future. The charts below are weekly, the S+P can take months to roll over so why would you be trying to pick the day, what's the point in being wrong hundreds of times in order to be right one day, but as the bottom chart shows there are always plenty takers.
  35. 1 point
    thanks for the update @who - I'll certainly flag the demo account for a passive review just to make sure there isn't an underlying issue. All the best, and always feel free to reach out if something isn't performing as expected.
  36. 1 point
    Hello @JamesIG, thanks for dropping by. Yes, the accounts are the same and are now correctly synced correctly across both platforms. I've been unable to replicate the issue, so I'm happy to walk away and pretend that I haven't caused all this fuss. Cheers.
  37. 1 point
    no, instead think Remora, attached to the shark so follows closely and is lead to food.
  38. 1 point
    Sorry. Sports Direct :O
  39. 1 point
    Just a little further insight into trade entry and management for you @dmedin with live market price action. On the chart below I show where I first reentered Oil Shorts, from previous posts you will see it was also where there was a gap down, close and fall again on the Daily chart. Price broke through an important support zone (red lines) that is now resistance (left side of the chart). It then rebounded back and put in a retrace and fell through support again, this happens a lot. I went short on the second break through with stops above the previous short term high. After that there was a small retest of support that failed and the market carried on down, then I moves stops to break even when I judged the market wasn't going to retrace suddenly, take me out and then carry on down again. So far so good but as the market hit the next level it rebounded. My question at the time was whether this was just a small rejection prior to another swift retest or something else. It was something else but then it looked like the price action may have completed a retrace. I was wary though because rather than drop away it went into consolidation. The breakout of consolidation would be important for short term direction. A break lower and I could consider adding to my Shorts. A break higher and I may have to reconsider the whole move. The market broke higher so it was time to close out, small profit and wait. Note prior to this I had move my stops to break even so, barring a flash move I was safe (no loss). At the end of day yesterday the market hit back into that same S/R zone and slowed and turned. Based on my methodology this was a good place to take a low exposure Short (stops just above the resistance zone). This is a preemptive trade as I did not wait for a small 1-2 move so it could get stopped out by another leg up. The market moved down and now I have stops just above the previous high for a very low exposure because if price comes back up to this level it is likely to do that additional leg up so no point in risking a larger draw down, just cut and seek a reentry later. In this whole situation I made a small profit on the first positions taken and was at break even with stops anyway and now I try again as my thesis is still that Oil goes down long term. I will only look at my other scenarios if Oil materially breaks back through the near term over head resistance. It may take me a few attempts to get Short again but I don't mind this, in fact it is common. No one catches all the moves perfectly all the time, the trick is to ensure you are still there ready to catch the final one without taking too much pain. To do this you need a method to assess the market direction (long and short term), likely trigger points for a trading opportunity, stop protection that makes sense both in terms of the price action, S/R levels and your account size and good in flight management once you are in a position. That takes time, study and practice to achieve. If you don't have this how can anyone decide when where to trade?
  40. 1 point
    I guess the most simple answer could be the reason here (as this isn't expected behavior and we haven't had other reports of this) but are you logged in to the same account on both devices? Can you check but making sure these two locations marry up? (MyIG on desktop and account number on mobile).
  41. 1 point
    P.S. Who said anyone needs to day trade. One of the fundamental killers is people looking for trades that just aren't there. If you can cut your way through the intraday noise in foreign exchange or indices, good luck with that.
  42. 1 point
    As I have said before " the Destiny of every trend line is to be broken ". I have discovered that the market doesn't care about my lines & sometimes seems to go out of it's way to break them ! Accepting that I can be wrong & knowing when I'm wrong is all part of the "game"
  43. 1 point
    @heyho, Unfortunately the broker I use for my ISA which is Investment Funds (Unit Trusts and OEICS) and Investment Trusts based is Fidelity which does not and to be honest I have no real need to. My ISA is for my long term investments and long term wealth creation strategy. For my long term share investments I use Hargreaves Lansdown. They do not offer trailing stop losses only just standard stop losses. Again I have no requirement for trailing on my share investments as they are long term investments. I only use trailing stop losses on my trading which is via IG's UK Spread Betting account which I absolutely require trailing stops as I apply trend following principles. My trading strategy is very different from my investment strategy and I keep them both separate. I use different brokers / companies so that my capital is not all with one organisation.
  44. 1 point
    Hi, i haven't used ProRealTime yet and i was just wondering.. Will i be able to change the chart candlestick opening times and closing times so they do so according to the US times? As using the normal IG platform the candles use GMT. Therefore having a little candle for sunday which makes the chart look all tachy. Thanks.
  45. 1 point
    Apropos of which, their most recent results only cover October 2018. I have noticed a large amount of bad trades and I would not be surprised if they are not updating their stats because they have lost an enormous amount of money. Additionally, These performance figures refer to simulated past trading performance on forex and stock trading. Suggests that they do not trade their own signals with their own money. That's a big red flag and I'm surprised they get away with it, being FCA regulated.
  46. 1 point
    index are for deep pockets. ig charges will fend u off hence be vigilant
  47. 1 point
    Peeps must be wondering what the Govt has up it's sleeve, they promised to wheel out the big guns if anyone dared to short the Yuan. see pic.
  48. 1 point
    Any trader using their signals should trade their signals on demo for at least a month or two , to see if they suitable for them.I look at their signals , to see if I can learn anything from them. It may help others see different view. Why are they not providing medium term signals, which are supposedly more profitable? .I have not seen any in last 2 days.There 22 intraday signals today, but no medium term signals.
  49. 0 points
    This chart suggests price is breaking down, I wonder what that means for the world's economies ?
  50. 0 points
    Nope, It's heavily shorted.... for now.