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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/10/19 in Posts

  1. 2 points
    Possible bounce off the channel line. Note also the small gap closure.
  2. 1 point
    I am going to take this opportunity to start a new post on 'Trend Following'. I am going to try to keep it as simple as possible for any new investors / traders who may be interested in trend following principles and adopting them within their trading / investing strategy. Even existing or experienced traders / investors may find this useful. If the more experienced traders / investors would like to enrich this thread then I would encourage them to do so, thus enhancing the overall discussion on trend following. I will start off by stating, "Failing to plan is a plan to fail." So always make sure you have a trading / investment plan that you can both execute and using discipline stick to. Have strict rules that you can follow. This is crucial as without a clear plan with rules one simply cannot trade effectively using trend following principles. One must understand that trend following has its flaws and it simply cannot predict future market movements. You will make losses. The key is to ensure that your profits cover your losses even if that means that out of ten trades you profit on three and make losses on seven. That is fine as long as the profit on the three winning trades is greater than the losses on the seven losing trades. Accepting this may mean a total change in mindset which may prove to be difficult for some. This is where an individual's personality comes in. One must assess which markets it is going to trade and have a system in place to help identify trends both upwards and downwards. Trend following aims to capture the middle of the trend so you never get in at the bottom or sell at the top. Volatility must be embraced and seen as an opportunity. Reacting to market trends as they happen is key. For those who are familiar with my posts then you will see that demonstrated on commodities such as Orange Juice, Cotton ,Wheat, Lumber, etc. No one can predict the future but using trend following principles based on historical and current price behaviour one can make assumptions. These assumptions can only be tested and presented as evidence based on the price action. It is ok to be wrong and one must not be scared or worried about what others may think. I am sure I have made many incorrect assumptions based on historical and current price action in the past and I am sure I will continue to do so. Making assumptions and then testing those assumptions is a key part of learning and gaining valuable experience. One can learn a lot more from their losses than they can from their winners. This can assist in coming up with sound risk management principles within the trading / investing plan. Be ruthless and trade both long and short depending on price movements. For those that are familiar with my posts will appreciate that I am an advocate of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. I have a long term long position in Bitcoin and Ether using XBT Provider One products and opened a long position when Bitcoin was around $2000.00. That is a long term trade. Now using spread betting on IG's platform I recently shorted Bitcoin even though at the same time I had the long position. The price action for Bitcoin merited a short position which using basic technical analysis one could not argue against. The trend had reversed to short. Now some of you may be wondering why I did not close my XBT Bitcoin trade. I am human and though one must try and eliminate emotion from the trade my flaw is that I believe in the long term story of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. This is only a flaw if they all come crashing down but I cannot predict the future so I simply do not know. Due to my convictions and beliefs which could be wrong all I can do is ensure that if any shorting opportunities come on Cryptocurrencies then I take them as I have two long positions in Bitcoin and Ether. This is where IG's Spread Betting platform works really well for me. It allows me to short both Bitcoin and Ether with leverage. Trends can change very quickly and this is where risk management comes in. One must have entry and exit rules which they stick to. It is fine to adapt these rules over time as experience may dictate a change in entry and exit points. Something I always think about when placing a trade is, 'Knowing your exit price before you enter the trade'. Stop losses and proper use of leverage are fundamental. One must let their winners run and not take profits too early. Only when there are indicators of a trend reversal must one exit and this should be done by the stop loss let. TrendFollower Tip: Trailing Stop Losses are great on winning positions so if you are not using them then you may want to consider them. I have kept this opening post very basic and simple. The detail will follow depending on the engagement this thread receives. I am out of the country from 31.07.18 to 26.08.18 so I am not available but on my return normal service will resume!
  3. 1 point
    Thanks James, that does explain why i can find no corresponding charts. Appreciated
  4. 1 point
    yes, for the mt4 platform on the mql5.com web site but you should consider volume profile over market profile. Both are similar in that they look at levels traded so provide dynamic intraday support and resistance levels but MP shows time spent at levels whereas VP shows volume traded levels. MP was more relevant when markets opened and closed but now brokers cover 24 hr VP seems to be more popular. VP on left MP on right;
  5. 1 point
    very useful and shows whats available via subscription services over and above your average broker platform. Can always go down the mt4 route where there are all sorts of interesting toys though not usually as professionally presented as this one in the vid.
  6. 1 point
    Brian Watt short vid on the difference between bid/ask volume and Delta volume showing recent ES buying (S&P 500 E-mini Futures).
  7. 1 point
    Maybe empty your account and don't make a deposit until its fixed - 😁
  8. 1 point
    Toss a coin - go long if it's heads, go short if it's tails. You've got a better chance of winning than if you use 'technical analysis'
  9. 1 point
    It's an easy way to lose lots of money.
  10. 1 point
    I'd ditch the volume because it's too slow and late for what you're trying to do and instead look to ride the PA rhythm by using something leading like Stoch instead. So still using pivots to look for possible turns but keeping in tune with the overall PA. see pic.
  11. 1 point
    So far there's no strategy here...only some numbers and charts on a sheet We found out when certain indices are most volatile and therefore best to trade. Question is now, how to capitalise on this volatility... I don't have an answer to that one yet, but will make sure to launch a £1000 trading course once I find out
  12. 1 point
    yes, instead of retaliating against yesterday's news China just signaled they were open to making at least a partial trade deal with the US.
  13. 1 point
    Has the Russell 2000 signaled the turn back into rally mode? The US small caps are often a bit leading for the large caps, the Russell went green earlier than the others just now. If any bearish trend push back down is halted short of the low and ideally pushed back into the green there is a good chance the retrace is done and he rally can resume. Obviously need to break the 1510 resistance zone to be sure.
  14. 1 point
    There are many forms of TA @cryptotrader, there is even a professional qualification, the CFA, that covers all or most of them. I use a number of techniques blended into a system of rules and indicators but almost always in the context of a fundamentals/macro backdrop. I use Elliot Wave Theory to get a big picture cyclical view and to confirm shorter term moves. I am a swing trader so my method is chiefly about identifying trend changes early and then once the trend is established and confirm I switch to trend following. Note, support/resistance, which I also use, is a form of TA. Regarding your specific observations: the candle you mention is less of a factor for me, I tend to only deploy candle price action on the daily+ time frame but it is a form of spinning top or doji candle, which can mean a trend reversal in context (i.e. not always). There was a decent IG video training session on candle patterns, probably still in the archive if you are interested. The gap is of interest because charting techniques (also a form of TA) hold that most gaps are filled quickly. The Supply/Demand proponents regard this as unfilled demand so usually the market reverses shorty after a genuine gap fill (i.e. one that is filled quickly). Gaps that take months to fill are not relevant in this context as they are really so-called breakaway gaps that were not filled during the phase in which they occurred. The market simply went into a trend change and the fill was a by product of this. Of more relevance to me was the fact that EWT suggested we ought to get a small counter trend retrace before a larger rally. Charting suggested that the support zone around the channel line - grey one - and/or breakout zone from the alternative channel line - blue one - would be a strong candidate for a counter trend turning point back into the main trend rally. Fibonacci retrace suggested the Fib 62% level, where it cut the channel line was a high likelihood turning point, which is where we got that doji candle on the 1H chart. However now of this is confirmed until we see a higher high, which is where good stop placement and money management comes into any system. So there are a few TA types there including: Elliot Wave Theory Support/Resistance Supply/Demand (which in my book is akin to, or causes support/resistance) Fibonacci retracement and Charting techniques I also use a few oscillators, especially momentum and I especially look for divergence on momentum (where price is higher (or lower) while momentum is the opposite. This occurred at the previous turn (3 Oct) and is dominant in my method unless or until that low (in this case) is broken or an opposite momentum divergence (a negative one) occurs later. That is all quite technical I know but hopefully you get the basic idea. If you google any of the individual elements you will get more info.
  15. 1 point
    While Stocks and precious metal traders wait on tender hooks for a potential turn (or breakdown...) over int he Coffee market things seem more straightforward with a break of a key support zone. Onwards to test the next I reckon and if that breaks then next stop 8000.
  16. 1 point
    Hi, see this page for investment transfer forms (If you are dematerialising stock then please also include your physical share certificate with the stock transfer form). https://www.ig.com/uk/investments/share-dealing/important-documents https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/investments/transferring-investments/how-do-i-transfer-my-investments-to-ig
  17. 1 point
    not as simple or as regimented as that, the next level could well be a TP as I expect some kind of resistance at each level and so wait to see which side takes control then look to climb aboard.
  18. 1 point
    Keep an eye on the indices, gold tracking up as indices track down but the indices bulls are trying to turn it around here, no word on Chinese retaliation as yet to the US move earlier.
  19. 1 point
    yeah. I'm looking for dips between levels or breakouts/breakdowns from levels on the lower time frame charts.
  20. 1 point
    https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/904353/sirius-minerals-boss-turns-fire-on-investor-bulletin-boards-904353.html Be-careful what you say about Sirius Minerals, The CEO is on the war path with Retail investors. Or in other words..."There is no smoke without fire"
  21. 1 point
    American stock in pre market, looking at a 30% + spread as 6.25 at 9.95 - likely correct but a shitty market so not likely to be a good traded price
  22. 1 point
    Thank you guys, I e-mailed the HelpDesk, an hour after which the booking of Working Orders started to work as normal, and continues still now. I still do not know what causes the problem, however. If it happens again I will post here or on the labs page.
  23. 1 point
    Gold staged a break of that short term support zone but has since been stopped at another short term support level. I am looking for a break of this secondary support to open the way for a strong bearish phase. Risk to this might be a bearish phase on stocks as these markets do seem quite correlated in an inverted fashion, however there is no reason why gold and silver can't beak down while stocks also go bearish for a time so I am not getting hung up in stocks in relation to gold.
  24. 1 point
    Coffee is continuing on my road map with another decent red day and a lower low. There is now a risk of an A-B-C, as is often the case, which could propel the market into the alternative rally scenario but I think this is less likely now after 2 strongly bearish days. If and when it breaks past the 9200 level I think 8000 is assured at a minimum.
  25. 1 point
    Friday saw a boost to the markets keeping the Dow in touch with the highs. And bad news for all ewes hoping for a recession, here is the S&P sector quilt for 2019 so far (and previous years dating back to 2009), oh dear, not a single negative for 2019 ☹️. If it wasn't for me you guys would only see what you were looking for. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/the-2019-sp-500-sector-quilt/
  26. 1 point
  27. 1 point
    A bit off topic but very worrying just the same. https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations