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Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/07/19 in Posts

  1. 17 points
    Both through the web platform and ProRealTime... I cannot close out an open position on US500... IG are you going to refund any money lost because of your techincal error?
  2. 9 points
    One of my open positions have disappeared form the positions tab. I had a total of 5 open positions, the number beside the positions tab says 4. There are only 4 positions displayed. However the account totals row in the bottom is behaving like the last position is still there, the total positions sum takes into account all 5 open positions, likewise with the market value and profit/loss columns.
  3. 9 points
    Hi - facing a new issue on the platform. My charts are being wiped out and set to the same default every few minutes/seconds. No matter what I configure, within a few moments it defaults to a 5min candle stick with no other indicators - what is happening?
  4. 8 points
    I am Not able to see open positions. The customer hotline is also not working. What is the issue. Rectify ASAP.
  5. 7 points
    Hi IG, Any plans to become a supported broker on Tradingview? I like the IG web platform but Tradingview stock screener is great and would be nice to trade from there. https://uk.tradingview.com/brokers/
  6. 7 points
    Don't fall for it. Don't try and catch a falling knife. Manage your risk - use stops and guaranteed stops for the love of god if you're looking to hold stocks over night or ANYTHING over the weekend. If you're in to intraday trading think about options (my thing of late - check post history if you want) which manage risk when buying and stop you chasing losses. Get those alerts and notifications set up on your phone. Diversify a portfolio with some defensive stuff as well. Read read read read read the news people. Take a step back. Think about it. Actively say you're going to cut the emotion. ONLY THEN make your trade. Never risk more than you could lose. Any other things which would help? Lets share over this economic mardi gras...
  7. 6 points
    Righto, having used this web platform every day for the past year it decides to go mad. Really important trading day... every 30 seconds or so, every bleedin' drawing I've made, adjustment to chart, timeframe etc all resets back to a default 5min and deletes all drawings WHAT IS GOING ON!!
  8. 5 points
    Web app and mobile apps are not working in the middle of the trading day! This is precious money making time but IG is making it going bankrupt time!
  9. 5 points
    The same thing happened to me after the scheduled maintenance today. I'm missing seven positions! The sum total seems correct. I've just shot an email to the helpdesk. I'm assuming they're going to be receiving a lot of these emails, and I sure hope they get this fixed pronto.
  10. 5 points
    Hi, wonder if could offer a bit of friendly advice? It seems to me that you could really do with introducing some urgent risk management into your trading. Monitoring large positions is essential, as is learning how to cut losses, not adding to positions that are already seriously in the red. Can highly recommend a book by Mark Douglas called 'The Disciplined Trader' - it's a great read and could help give you the mindset to protect your capital in future and avoid these kinds of situations arising. IG will give margin calls as appropriate, but are under no obligation to notify you that your portfolio is being decimated as you put it. Really sorry that you're so badly under water...but learning to cut losses quickly is the best way to avoid serious losses (and significant overnight funding charges).
  11. 5 points
    I don't know what expectations you had when you started David, mine were to make a lot of money and retire. That didn't happen. After a while I stopped trading, took a step back and looked at what was happening. I had none of the stuff mentioned above which are needed for success. What I did have were lots of trading websites, discussion forums, tips websites, news feeds and so on. A confusion of noise with no structure and no plan. If you decided to open a business you would have a business plan. You would probably open a business that you knew something about and had lots of experience in, or could hire people to fill the gaps. You would know how much things cost, how much you could charge, and what the likely market would be. You would do a lot more than that and still might fail for any number of reasons. Spread betting, or any other form of trading is a business. You need to know what you are doing, you need to do it consistently and you need to keep monitoring your performance. To make money you need an 'edge' - which is simply a strategy which over the long term gives you more in wins than losses. It doesn't really matter what that edge is, just that you have it and trade it consistently. You do not need, and should avoid, trading on anyone elses advice. As I write I have a long position on Gold. I could explain why and someone might read this tomorrow, think it sounds reasonable and decide to buy too. I mogt have sold by then and gone short. My advice would be worthless. If you want to make money here's how. Open a demo account, with a similar amount of funding to what you would have in a real account. Review what you already know about trading strategies and pick one that you think you understand. Research this and make sure that you know all of the details. Does it apply to all markets? Does it suit short term or long term trading? Why do you think that it would give you an edge? Write the whole plan down - preferably with a checklist of all conditions that need to be in place before you take a trade. Start trading it with the demo account. Keep doing that for months if you need to until you always stick to your plan. Review the results. Did you stick to the plan? Did you make enough demo profit for it to be worth your while? Keep going with this until you are sure, then start with a small trading account and see if you can still stick to the plan, and make money. As you succeed you can start increasing trade size or adding other strategies but slowly. Remember that the reason for doing this is to make money. If you can increase the value of your trading account by 5% in a year you are doing better than most savings accounts. 3% in a month doubles it in 2 years. Big wins are for adrenalin junkies. Steady consistent wins are for millionaires. Final thought: Spread betting is the hardest 'easy money' you will ever make. Michael
  12. 4 points
    To make your trading plan and trade strategy just answer these questions then move on to the testing section below. 1/ TRADING PLAN a) System What type of trader will I be? Swing, trend trader, trend follower, day trader, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, option trader, another, or a combination? What time frame will I be trading on? What will I be trading? Will I trade long or short or both? What has to happen to invalidate my trading system and make me look for flaws in my thinking? b) Psychology How big of a position size can I mentally and emotionally handle trading? Does my chosen trading method fit my personality for activity and risk tolerance? Do I actually enjoy trading? Do I have the mental strength to persevere until successful in trading? c) Risk How much of my trading capital will I risk per trade? How many losses in a row with this level of risk will lead to blowing up my trading account? How much will I lose at one time if all my open positions go against me at the same time? How correlated with each other are all your open positions and your potential trading vehicles that are on your watch list? 2/ TRADING STRATEGY What signals my entry? What will signal my exit? Where will the initial stop loss go? Do I use a trailing stop or a price target to lock in profits? What is the probability of my trade working out based on historical data? (see testing below). STRATEGY TESTING Ok, so you've discovered that a random approach doesn't work so you've found a strategy but you'll have no confidence to trade with real money until you've proved to yourself it actually works and that means testing and collecting data over a number of trades on demo first. The simplest data to collect are the win rate and the average risk/reward ratio of say 20 demo trades, you can then plot these onto a profitability graph to see if the strategy actually works before you risk real money. To collect the trade data you will need a simple spread sheet, try this one https://forums.babypips.com/t/free-excel-trading-journal/52738 Just fill in these 9 green boxes for excel to auto calc the Win rate and the average Risk/Reward Ratio. The date is by drop down box as is the asset, you can change the list of assets to whatever on the 'List Variables' tab. Use the Take Profit as the exit price even if it's a loss and leave the Exit Price column blank. Take the Win Rate and the Average RRR and plot them on the graph, anywhere above the red line is profitable, below the line is not. NB/ The journal works fine on windows excel but if opening it in Windows 10 OpenOffice you will get the 'invalid entry' pop up for columns G,H, and I, click on the letter to highlight (G, H & I) > data > validity and uncheck the 'show error message'. OpenOffice has also allocated the currency dropdown box for G, H & I so just ignore. So now you have a trading plan, that probably won't change much unless your circumstances change, and you also have a trading strategy to bolt onto the plan, you may have 2 or 3 of them, say a buy the dip strategy and a breakout strategy, and you also have a means to test that strategy on demo to gauge if it really does have a chance of working out on a live account. You may go through a number of strategies or make changes and retest again and again before finding something to test on a live account but at least you're not losing real money to find out if it really works or not because if it doesn't work on demo it won't work live. Best of Luck
  13. 4 points
    It really is unacceptable. I’ve been trading with IG for 4-5 years and experienced various outages and frustrations with the stability of the platform, typically at the most inconvenient of times. However, these outages in the last 24 hours are serious. Calling to deal doesn’t help when market volatile.
  14. 4 points
    Trading app is very unstable. Could not see my open position. Can't close my position. Same thing happen 12 hrs ago. Please rectify it asap. I need to close some position.....this is terrible. Will you bear if there are losses.
  15. 4 points
    Usually IG does refund if the error is 100% theirs but often you need to provide yourself Screenshot and video... which is a little ridiculous. I'm now using a Desktop recoding tool every single time I trade with IG because last time there was an outage I couldn't close some long position I had which then endup being all negative. I had luckily took a video with my phone as a proof otherwise theyr would have not refund anything.
  16. 4 points
    is there a reason I'm still getting charged commsion even though I'm making 3 trades a month?
  17. 4 points
    I queried this via IG support chat before opening my ISA. I was advised the custody fee would only be applied once for both Share Dealing and ISA and only then if a minimum of 3 trades were not made in the previous quarter (in either account or in a combination of the two). A dealing account with zero holdings would not incur a custody charge anyway, as it's a fee for holding custody of shares, rather than an account management or inactivity fee. In a similar way, 3 trades made in my dealing account in March entitled me to the £3 UK commission rate and free US dealing in my ISA account from the moment I opened it on 6 April. Hope that helps.
  18. 4 points
    Hi MAKTRADER6970, I puzzled by this as well. You're right this is not how options really work. I trade options all the time in the US and make money by selling calls on shares I own and selling puts on shares I want to buy. When you sell you should get the premium immediately the option is sold. J_Bernard appears to be correct. We're not buying and selling options just betting on the option prices. You can't use them sensibly or profitably, so I think we should not bother with them. It appears to me CFDs and spread betting is just that - gambling where the broker wins every time.
  19. 4 points
    Trading FX these are the sort of indicators you need, matching what is currently strong vs what is weak, not stuff on patterns and macd, rsi or whatever. The first pic is from Nov and out of date but the second is of yesterday, maybe I should include something like this in the daily dashboard? Vote a like for yes or a sad for don't bother.
  20. 4 points
    Thanks for the responses guys. As I phoned them to discuss the situation I had a voicemail from my account manager cancelling the trade as they suspected it was a mistake. Great service 👍
  21. 4 points
    The ability to have two separate instances of two different trading platforms in two different tabs of my browser. Right now if I navigate to the new share dealing platform in one tab, my spread betting account in the other tab automatically redirects to the new share dealing platform also. Totally unnecessary.
  22. 4 points
    they never really advertise it but think its worth noting
  23. 4 points
    Hey Guys, I’m glad to announce I will be your new community point of contact. I'm taking over from @JamesIG. I have worked at IG for four years on our trading floor but have moved to manage the community. It will be great to hear any feedback you have for IG and I will happily push these idea to our developers. Do make sure if you need anything answered to @ me and I will respond as soon as possible. Thanks, Charlotte 😊
  24. 4 points
    Hihi, 30pt spread on weekend cable is fixed. We're looking at reducing if feasible / volatility permitting (for reference, narrowest indicative prices we saw from 1900 Sunday were 50 pts wide). How much of a factor in deciding whether to trade on the weekend is spread, what would you see as attractive to trade? Regarding true 24/7 trading - it's very difficult. We keep having to trade off between release time & platform up time - unfortunately trading hours aren't likely to increase soon. Only silver lining is that usually the 2200-0400 period is very quiet in terms of macro events. Open to any other feedback re. weekend markets. Thanks, Ludwik
  25. 4 points
    Here some of my thoughts on the importance of ATR (Average True Range) in Day Trading. Here's my thought process: In order to make profit you need volatility Volatility is the change in price of an asset over time As day traders we're interested in volatility per day To measure this I take the true range over one day, which is effectively the high of day minus the low of day and take the average of that over 200 periods If we assume we only take one position on a given day, in theory the max profit I get is when I buy exactly at low of day and sell exactly at high of day (or short-sell at high of day and cover at low of day) I need to subtract the spread from this max profit The margin factor requirements from IG define how much I actually can make in terms of £. Higher margin factor means lower qty to trade with, means lower profit, even if Average True Range is high I pulled some data today to find assets which fulfil requirements below low spread low margin requirements high average true range I looked into Indices, Crypto, Metals, Currencies, Commodities and Shares. I didn't fully automate the queries, so just pulled some snapshot data in the below. There might be some nuggets I missed, if you spot any, please let me know. (All profit calculations are based on a hypothetical £10k account - for larger accounts things may look differently because the margin factor rises in tiers for large accounts) Indices IG has a few indices at 5% margin factor, which outperform the rest. Only exception is Australia 200 which is hanging behind the China 300, while the latter has 10% margin factor. Most profitable ones to trade would be NASDAQ, NIKKEI and DAX. Interesting finding for me as currently trading the FTSE 100. Might give NASDAQ a try. Crypto Perform worse than Indices, because of 50% margin factor. ATR is much higher compared to Indices though, so if IG lowers the margin factor at any time in the future, these may become interesting. Metals Nickel and Spot Gold seem to do well. Gold because it only has 5% margin factor. Nickel because it has a large ATR of 2.8%. Currencies There are only few currency pairs which have a margin factor of 3.33% and a few more with 5%. Those perform better than the rest with 10%. ATR is relatively low here. Best ones I could find are GBP pairs like GBP/JPY, GBP/ZAR and GBP/CHF. Might be related to Brexit and high volatility in GBP at the moment? Commodities Surprisingly perform relatively well. Carbon Emissions, Natural Gas and US Crude at the top spots. 10% margin factor with relatively high ATR of around 3% I might give those a try. Shares Now shares are a little bit different to the rest, because they can be very volatile at times and don't move at all at other times. The best bet might be to find shares which were recently falling sharply aka trading well below 200 EMA. IG then increases the margin factor, but that might take some time. So if you find a stock which recently fell sharply and you can get in before IG increases margin factor you have insane profit % of 50%+ like Metro Bank and Kier Group in the below. Difficulty here is that the True Range has huge swings itself and you need to time it right to get on a big move. That's why I'm sticking with Indices at the moment. So, if we ignore shares for a moment, the top 3 assets to day trade according to this theory would be: 1) Carbon Emissions 2) US Tech 100 3) Natural Gas What do you think about this approach? Does it make any sense? Commodities seem to be doing well in this approach - has anyone in here experience trading them? (US Crude and Iron Ore would be place 4 and 5 - that makes 4 out of the overall top 5 being commodities and 1 Index)
  26. 4 points
    Hi there. In my first year I lost money; a genuine massacre. But I did not give-up, as I am quite resilient and kept going in trading and losing money again and again in the second and the third year. Until the forth year, where I reached the break-even. Now I am constantly and largely profitable, quarter after quarter, since last 4 years. I learnt how to trade the hard way. It is quite a common path, I discovered later reading the Market Wizards - a book I suggest you read - a collection of interviews done by Jack Schwager to a group of worldwide top traders. So funny to discover I was not alone having burnt my account at the beginning of my trading experience. The game is complex and lots of things influence your performance, including your emotions when you see the P&L in deep red. For that, it was very helpful to me to discover my limits: how much money I can afford to lose without losing my emotional control, sleeping hours or my temper - I also had moment where I was unpleasant with my family. But this is not acceptable, as you wrote. How much money can I lose without caring? 50 pounds? 500 pounds? 5000 pounds? 50000? It is all personal and you need to ask yourself what is your limit, as this should size your trade. At the end It is a game of probabilities and the more you trade the more you have opportunities to finalize your trading strategy/strategies, selecting only the ones with high probability of success. But nobody is right 100% and some of then will go wrong. Also for the suggestions given by Trade of the weeks: no discounts for anybody. But listen: the market is not fake and nobody is conspiring against you or anybody. Don't take this perspective to quit. There are retail traders (like me) that are constantly making profit. The break-even is an outstanding results, as you are - at this point - on the top quartile. Learning when not to trade also improved my performance a lot - as you cannot lose when all your positions are closed. As we speak, I am out of all markets and this is average 70% of the time. I take a trade only when all the homework is signalling high probability of success and from the past I scaled down from 20 trades a week to approx 2 or 3. Or sometimes zero. For every single trade I also write a lot, in my trading journal. Not just the pre-analysis, why I have selected the trade, the overall risk assessment and the related stop, the target price, all the multi-frame chart analysis . But also I record what happens during the trade: I write how the market is moving, the intensity of waves. And I also record my level of emotional reaction during the trade: from 1 to 10 I want to know if the trade was completely emotional agnostic or if I lost my sleeping. At the end, you need to be a Marine soldier studying every centimeter of the the battle field, to survive. Including you. Keep going with just 1 pip per trade - small money, but real trades. Don't give up. Improve your strategy, record your performance and try to understand when and why you have been successful or not. One day you will reach the profitability. Good luck.
  27. 4 points
    Indeed I have been sat here for a good many tears, I mean years. Did I get rich quick, no. I do treat it as a business though, a buying and selling business. So like all careers there is a lot of theory to be grounded in plus a lot of practical to get experience in. There is probably a whole years worth of course work in just learning how to spot and avoid the traps. I picked out an old Tom Dante quote which sums it up rather well, see below.
  28. 3 points
  29. 3 points
    This is the second outrage in 24 hrs. I live in Singapore and I can’t see my opened position. The first outrage occurred on Thur (21 May) at around 10.30pm local time whereby I can’t adjust my stop loss. Where is the recourse for the losses? I am switching to CMC MARKET after this incident.
  30. 3 points
    yes that is true but I'm not a new trader and my performance is reflected in the stats I keep of all my trades and have done for years so everything is constantly monitored.
  31. 3 points
    Wow Guest, you're right, just checked out their real-time spreads, and they have tight spreads.. ..well, the same spreads as IG used to have. Now IG is 4-10 times more expensive on DAX, depending on what day you compare with. I'm going to create an account on Core Spreads now, and see how long it will take before I can move over there. I like IG's free ProRealTime platform, but I can move over to MT4 if push comes to shove! --- Caseynotes - Yes, I could trade the monthly time frame too, but I'd rather do that on Core Spreads with a 5th the spread:).. I think IG just lost me as a client. Regards, Molibar
  32. 3 points
    Why are you using the cash market at all? For holding trades open longer than a week you should be using the cfd futures market instead, no overnight interest charges just a slightly higher spread repaid every 3 months on rollover if keeping the position open for the very long term.
  33. 3 points
    I've been trying to set a trailing stop on some shares however the online help shows options that aren't appearing on my order ticket. Namely drop down options to set different types of stop. Are guaranteed and trailing stops only available on CFD accounts or am I missing something??
  34. 3 points
    must admit it is getting a bit hot and sticky in here 😳
  35. 3 points
    Does anyone know what the markets are going to do next? No, me neither. However I use my methodology to identify likely turning points and assess the risk against my long term scenarios (or road maps). As a swing trader this is an important aspect of trading, otherwise you are sitting around waiting to join a well established trend, which means wider stops and therefore greater exposure to loss; or you are trying to jump on a sudden move (day trading), which is not a long term swing trading approach (usually because we are not glued to the screens all day every day). I prefer to take on a small exposure several times and even seek to take that exposure down to zero, which is what I did the other day on the US indices (see my thread on US Indices, the big one). Others prefer a different approach that works for them, which is perfectly fair and not for me to criticize. People often talk about bias as a bad thing. This I disagree with for several reasons but chief among them is that everyone has a bias all the time. The key is to be sufficiently self aware to recognise your inherent bias and guard against throwing caution to the wind off the back of this. For me this bias is that the market has (or will soon if Oct 2018 turns out not to be the top) shifted from the runaway Bull to a Bearish footing and that this will be the beginning of a massive Bear move that will last several years. I don't mind being wrong so long as I don't lose much in my efforts to find an entry to capitalise should I be right. All of the top traders who people quote and defer to take positions within a premise (whether Technical or Fundamental or both or even from a valuation perspective for individual company shares) for what is going to happen next. This is a bias. Therefore, for me, the only way to make some serious capital gains on trading is to do exactly that. Of course this is a long term swing trader view point. I daresay day traders can simply bend with the wind each day, but I am not a day trader so can't comment on that. When you are engaging in a discussion around trading it is important to know the people you are doing so with in terms of their trading type. I don't listen to day traders because I don't day trade, not because they are wrong. It is just wrong for me and my method. If you listen too the wrong kind of people you will undermine confidence in your own methodology and if you don't have this you cannot be successful. BTW, even if you have all that you can still lose money if you do not practice tight money management. With all of that it is no wonder so many retail traders lose... A couple of other observations/saying that are relevant to this topic: Buy low/sell high - well we are about as high as we can be on indices right now The trend is your friend - yeah until the bend in the end! If you do not have a methodology to identify this inevitable bend then not only do you lose out on opportunity you also hold onto old trend positions far too long based on the original bias, resulting in impaired gains and at worst gains tuning into losses. This turns into the opposite of saying #1! Buy weakness, sell strength. Indices are seemingly strong now but are they really? So within that context (and let's hope no one feels the need to argue about that!), here is my case for stock indices turning back into a bearish phase. I currently believe the top was hit in October (my bias). Unless or until we see a fresh high high that position I will retain. The problem we have is that after such a strong Bull market it will not turn Bearish without a fight. The Bulls almost cannot conceive of a situation where the current bull market will end. There are plenty of examples of people talking up the market. Given this backdrop a retrace move (i.e. the long breath before the plunge) could go all the way to a double top formation. Therefore my approach is to assess each resistance zone as it is approached and watch for a trigger. When a move down is a trigger, according to my method, I take a position with a close (low exposure) stop. If I see the move flame out I exit or move stops to break even (or there abouts) to guard against a reversal, which is what happened end of last week on US indices. and begin the process again, with little or no loss. So where are we? I see all major indicies at key resistance (potential turning) points (see below), with the additional indicator of strong Negative momentum divergence and other oscillators in the over bought zones. I see a credible EWT A-B-C formation. On the hourly I currently see a small 1-5 down and now in retrace. If we get a small A-B-C up followed by a bearish move down past recent lows that will form a lower high, lower low combo. If we also see a breakout of narrowing channels we may be on for a bearish period. However I cannot say whether this is the final retrace before the big one (quite likely with the Dow at Fib 82%!) or a wave A resulting in a further wave B-C to May time. But before I worry about that I want to see the first turn and get in on that: Major indices on the Daily look like this: The Dow has almost reached the Fib 82% at a significant turning point from Pre Christmas. We saw a strong Bearish move from this point pre Christmas - markets have memories! Also a significantly narrowing channel and NMD suggests the power of this move is waning. Nasdaq looks similar but falling between Fibs 62% and 76% but at a key resistance zone nonetheless, being the long term channel breakout zone. S&P is again similar but this time right in the Fib 76/78% zone, which is also a key turning point 3 times prior to Christmas. Russell2000 is almost identical to the Nasdaq (both are momentum stock heavy) FTSE is weaker, having topped out earlier and is appears to have already turned at the Fib 50% zone, again coincident with the long term channel line breakout zone. The Dax is the weakest of all the Western markets, having topped out first and is only making it to the Fib 38% at present and again coincident with its long term channel breakout zone Finally the Nikkei, which is on a different route map having topped out in the late 1980s but topped out the current Bull run in Oct, same as for the US markets and like the FTSE100 has only achieved the Fib 50% on the current retrace.
  36. 3 points
    I bought a small lottery ticket Dow weekend size 0.25 and then closed manually 0.15 and kept 0.1 open then 15 minutes before future reopen they (IG) closed the weekend Dow and opened a position in cash Dow Same size and no extra spread
  37. 3 points
    JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY ONE BARK FOR SELL ???
  38. 3 points
    Can't add to the recently restarted US OIL thread now so start anew again. "Oil has been showing some signs of "hope" over past 24 hours. Given the fact oil and Chinese CSI 300 move in tandem, maybe the oil bounce could turn violent to the upside."
  39. 3 points
    fair go, the failure to break through the blue rectangle was crucial for further downside. Now looking for resistance (sellers to step back in) and the most likely area is just before the red 29400 defending their initial stops.
  40. 3 points
    Don't know anything about Wheat @cheviot and can't get sufficient years of data on IG to get a purely bearing, however the chart from 2000ish they do have looks very similar to some agri crops I do track and trade (NY Sugar No.11 and Aribica Coffee). All of these soft commodities seem to have topped out during the commodity super-cycle top in 2011ish and since then have been in decline, whereas some of the harder commodities and precious metals have rallied harder, and in the case of PMs the general market bias is definitely bullish (not yet convinced!). In my Coffee and Sugar posts I have discussed the case for an impending massive cyclical bull market on the basis that we have been at or near the long term range bottom, although there was still room below. These markets took off, especially coffee BUT now it looks to me like Coffee is reversing and is more likely to put in lower lows on the long term trend before that Bull can take hold. I had reversed and shorted Coffee near the top of the recent rally but thought it was a bullish retrace rather than a reversal. Sugar is not there yet, although I am tactically Short now and waiting to see how it plays out. My concern is that Sugar could follow all the rest of the Softs (And indeed hards as well, currently) lower. Part of my thesis for a bull market in the making was technical and part fundamentals (As always). The Fundamentals part was that in a trading range market, once you reach the bottom (or top) the probability is massively in favour of a reversal into the opposite trend. Timing is hard as these markets can stay hugging the extremes for a long time. There are signs that in both Coffee and Sugar farmers are leaving the market (supply issue building). However, as @TrendFollowermentioned a while ago I believe, there was is a large stockpile of coffee about to be released on the market in Brazil. Sugar definitely has a supply problem though it seems. Another part was the idea doing the rounds of hyper inflation, driven by central banks getting what they have been seeking but not being able to control it. This is being called the "reflation trade" and unsurprisingly not everyone agrees with the hypothesis... The third factor was a falling USD, which ought to be good for commodities in theory (doesn't trump supply demand drivers though) but currently it is looking increasingly likely we will see DX at about 10000 (currently 9760ish). So all in all it seems that another period of commodity bearishness is in play (check also the thread on HG Copper). I remain convinced that a commodity bull market is going to happen and that softs will be the place to be when it does as I feel that industrial commodities will get hit by a recession (we may get that inflation trade first though, especially on Oil, which may then trigger the stocks crash and reflect the recessionary forces). All of these markets are related but food and water security is the single biggest issue the planet faces long term, far out weighing climate change (the climate gang are talking about the wrong things!). If the population is set to grow to somewhere between 9-13 billion by 2100 where is all the food and water going to come from? That's long term of course but if prices are depressed and farmers leave the industry then supply shortages at low prices are inevitable. Cue prices increases, and probably in a dramatic fashion. The question remains, when? I thought we might be there but this months price performance on Coffee makes me thing we are not yet.
  41. 3 points
    Visualisation in Excel of current market situation: Built using https://www.excelpricefeed.com
  42. 3 points
    Dax pausing at the weekly R1 and Dow within striking distance of it's all time high. H1 charts;
  43. 3 points
    just meaning that TA is based on historic values that may or may not have any bearing on today's market. For example new news is much more important than yesterday's chart values.
  44. 3 points
    no it's not true and you should know as the question has been answered dozens of times.
  45. 3 points
    This is quite an old video now and has been posted and discussed on the forum before. Worth noting a couple of points, firstly that he smears all educators in what is basically the introduction and launch of his own very expensive education academy and secondly he smears all brokers without reference to any regulation authority as if they all operated out of Israel or some third world swamp. It really is just a big advertisement to get people to sign up to his courses, as in you can't make money using educators or brokers or by day trading unless you sign up with us.
  46. 3 points
    Realised it might be better to screen-grab the entire trading window so that time and price can be seen on the axis.
  47. 3 points
    Recent attention to a looming recession has come about due yield spreads turning negative - see FRED. 2yr v 10yr seems to be preferred. It's been a pretty good indicator in the past and for those that say "it's different this time" - I doubt it. Average time from inversion to recession is quoted at 17 months. If that's right then it puts it late 2020 possibly early 21. We now have the longest bull market ever recorded and it's been driven by massive injections from the central bank needle. Drugs work until they don't. This fits with my motto "It doesn't matter.....until it does!" Remember this bull, rising since the GFC, has risen primarily on "bad" news ( i.e.the needles comin'). Any hint it will be withdrawn is met with the screaming abdabs. It's effectiveness is diminished after each fresh dose. You need more and more to achieve the desired effect. The US having the least smelling pile, now has rates at 2%. It's reckoned you need 3% -4% minimum to fight a recession and why, ideally, the Fed wants it higher. The firepower for easing in that situation isn't there. So more Quantative it is. Bull markets die on euphoria. It doesn't feel quite like that yet so I'd say we're in a wave 4 which will be exited on the next QE dose. The Fed will probably paint itself into a corner and be unable to fight the next recession with rate cuts when it comes. All boats (equity and bonds) rose on this last tide so expect the opposite by which time all thought of central banks being the great panacea will have evaporated.
  48. 3 points
    It's taken me over a year of demo account trading to "perfect" a strategy that is proving profitable on a weekly basis... I'm in this for the long run, so really no rush to get into the markets, but I think I am just about ready to enter the "real world". One of the major lessons I learnt over the year (beyond what has already been mentioned above), PATIENCE! Literally sitting watching the ticker for the right time to enter the trade has been key, you may miss a trade or two, but in the long run its pays to see confirmation in trend before taking on the risk. Oh, and when I say a year, I mean literally every day of the week for a minimum of 2 hours (excluding videos on yourtube, audio books, reading about trading etc).
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