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Interesting issue @dmedin, and one I have struggled with myself. I have a few personal insights for you, if care for them, as follows: Firstly I use multiple time frames for both analysis and as trading triggers, although I usually use the 1H chart as my main trading window, within the context of the bigger picture. With respect to EWT I never use it exclusively, and it is never an actual trigger for trading, merely an analytical corroboration. In other words I need to have a credible EWT set up but don't use label positioning as a trading trigger; it is too rough a technique for that. With respect to Daily vs 1H, often I cannot see the internals on the daily chart (e.g. a wave 1 with an internal 1-5 pattern) but the wave labeling should sense in the context of the rest of the labeling on the daily. In such cases I will then look to see if I can see the 1-5 internals on a shorter term time frame (4H/1H); occasional also 15 mins but below 1H things get less reliable for me. I will happily trade a price action move that conforms to my trading triggers even if the specific EWT at that point is not conclusive as I often see it in hindsight, however the contextual bigger picture EWT has to be present and credible for me to trade. If we look at the Daily chart for Coffee (below). The May bottom at present looks like a trend ending turn (a large wave C - see my previous posts for why I think this is a C). The rally up to wave 1 (purple) could be seen as either a 1-5 or an A-B-C, indeed my first thought was an A-B-C, which is what I was posting initially. However the move down to wave 2 (purple) is a clearer A-B-C, which suggested the previous rally was a 1-5. With another rally and retrace to follow (1-2 blue) and a strong straight rally to a new higher high vs 1 (blue), I can surmise that the current rally is part of a motive wave that will eventually breakout into a confirmed trend change and long term bull market. I cannot see the internal 1-5 on the wave 1 (brown) rally until I look at the short term time frame charts. However the wave 1 label is consistent with the rest of the daily chart labeling and I had a number of indicators suggesting a turn back down and I was anticipating a bearish retrace to set up a strong move to test the key 11,500 level. So far this is playing out. It must be noted that until we get a breakout and a higher high than the wave 1 (purple) point I cannot rule out a consolidation phase. Indeed there are 2 unclosed gaps on the recent rally, one right at the beginning, which could mean the whole rally gets retraced to a new lower low. If that happens then the wave 1 (brown) is negated. Like a lot (all) of technical analysis the price action needs to confirm which scenarios are possible until there is only 1 left. While I believe my Fundamentals case is strong for a long term bull market the technicals help to sort out the timing via the various scenarios in play. Currently my lead scenario is for a retrace to wave 2 (brown) and then a rally to test the key resistance level. However a deep rally might begin to change my mind. The case for my lead scenario is strong, including the strength of the wave 1 (brown) rally. It will take an equally strong bearish price action move to negate this.

Hi everyone, so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle. Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon) First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows. What do you think of this approach?

@dmedin, My IG app on my iPhone seems to be working but the desktop version on my iMac is not. This is very frustrating as when I am at home then I want to use IG on my desktop as the user experience is far greater and superior than on the smartphone. That is for emergencies only! None of my charts are loading up and the website is very slow and 'clunky'.

Last day of the early start: UK and European clocks go back one hour when daylight saving time (DST) ends on Sunday 27 October. From this date until Sunday 3 November, the end of US DST, there are a number of changes to our opening hours: • US and Canadian markets will trade one hour earlier in UK time. For example, US and Canadian shares will be quoted between 1.30pm and 8pm • All forex markets will open at 9pm on Sunday 27 October and close at 9pm on Friday 1 November • 24-hour dealing on indices will open at 10pm on Sunday 27 October and close at 9pm on Friday 1 November • US shares (all sessions) will run from 8am to midnight Monday to Thursday, and from 8am to 9pm on Friday 1 November • In-hours trading on Eurex futures (including the Germany 30) will be available one hour earlier at 12:10am • Expiring US markets will be settling an hour earlier than usual • New York Cocoa, Sugar and Coffee, and London Sugar all close an hour earlier than normal • Weekend trading on indices will open at the same time (4am Saturday), but will close one hour earlier (9.40pm Sunday) The dealing desk will also close early at 9pm on Friday 1 November.

Account size sorted. Let the games begin

Err, day trading? No thanks! His roller coaster can be smoothed out if he switches to longer term trading. Day trading is a roller coaster, that's part of that game, especially intra-day. He is right about his emotional pressures, it is because he is over trading (too many traders seeking to generate massive hits in one go). He is wrong that the way to address this is to go back to a small account as he will not have addressed his underlying emotional issues and trading errors, they will emerge again if he is successful (i.e. his account grows). In the end trading is about accumulating wealth over time not about generating a steady income. The opportunities the markets offer are lumpy so you have to be ready to take advantage when they are offered. A big part of trading successfully is to not trade, most of the time.

How to retire by 40 *note number 6 🙂

@TrendFollower- Thought you'd like this piece: https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/bitcoin-price-weakness-could-spark-wider-crypto-sell-off-191114 Let me know what you think and what you would want from our analysts. They love hearing what you want our community members are chatting about and are happy to invest some time and share their thoughts.

Also today is the start of the Trump impeachment hearings which might also affect the markets. Starting at 10am (I think EST which is 3pm gmt). How to watch Wednesday's impeachment hearing By Veronica Stracqualursi, CNN Updated 1103 GMT (1903 HKT) November 13, 2019 https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/13/politics/watch-impeachment-hearing-wednesday/index.html?utm_content=2019-11-13T12%3A11%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image

Hi I am one of the successful person but I do not do Publicity about my success. I make few Hundred and few thousand from time to time . Everybody has different ways of playing the market so u should not follow the crowd . Do what suits you best . I do not use Bollinger bands . another Success theory is to be patient and Don't be Greedy. Take your profit and run its your hard earned money. If u dont take profit then the brokers will take it . good luck in Trading

It seems Live Cattle prices are being supported by strong beef prices. Also it is being reported that Asia are also one one of the reasons why prices are going up. What we are seeing is a strong bullish trend upwards. How many other assets during the same period have trended stronger than Live Cattle? Not many is the answer.

Hi, may I ask is there a system glitch in IG for Wall street Cash index as Dow closed 27492 at 5.01am and the Dow Futures was 27424 but IG Wall street at 5am is 27487, at 5.01am is 27454. Rightfully it should reflect the same value without any gap during the transition of market closing. There is a wide gap of 30 points difference (attached screenshot from the IG.) Observed that the current points difference between Indices and Indices future of Dow 30 at Investing.com is 68 points (attached the screenshots from Investing.com) Please kindly advise. Thanks!

Huge beat in ZEW figures: EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV), Actual: -2.1 Expected: -13.0 Previous: -22.8

Indicator showing the correlations between the SPX500 and a number of currency pairs and indexes across several time frames.

as it did between 2012 & 2016 , I can see this one just bouncing around between blue & red

OK I get the reasoning and it will most likely trade lower at some point but my challenge is twofold: firstly that the bulk of the bearish move is over; secondly the current retrace is complex, which is more difficult to trade out of. Therefore the risk/reward is not a good as other stocks, say J&J or Boeing, which you are also looking at. Same reasoning as for GE if you recall. If you are going to take the risk to Short a stock better to go for the bigger rewards. Catch a wave 3 down and you can ride it a long way in trend follower mode.

LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk BAML: European Equities Saw Biggest Inflows In 88 Weeks Surmounting To $1.7Bln - RTRS

That's weird. I thought I had posted an updated on this thread... Losing my mind maybe... Anyway yesterday's bearish move on both Gold and Silver helped me spot something I should have spotted earlier, which is a possible consolidation Triangle formation. The key to such a pattern is to trade the breakout (watch out for fakeouts though). The set up that is most favourable at present is for a breakout to the down side to continue the retrace to test the H&S neckline (circa 1360). The Triangle itself has 5 hits and conventional EWT has it that the fifth sparks a move in the direction of the turn (in this case down). Currently we have seen a hit of the bottom line and a small rally but this could be a smaller consolidation within a bearish fast move down. Ideally want to see further USD strength to support this directional move. Alternatively we could see another round trip within the consolidation pattern.

I'm just watching it again (half way through) and forgotten how good it is. It explains a lot as to why so many just keep going round in circles.

A little stutter after the initial breakout yesterday but now Oil looks to be backing the first break up with a second break to new highs in the move. The rally up from the Fib 50% is in a nice 1-5 (motive rather than retrace) and then a small 1-2 retrace was put in to only the Fib 23% before being propelled to that new higher high (very bullish). Let's see if this one sticks.

Looks like you have it sorted. Go Long then.

I used to get frustrated when weekends came around because I couldn't trade but now I enjoy the enforced break from the markets. Trying to trade over the weekend is not going to help your health and mindset over the longer term. Maybe use the weekend to work on yourself, your health and do the things you really enjoy. Just getting some perspective can really help your trading. Here's a website with some great ideas: https://www.thistradinglife.com/post/7-things-to-do-outside-of-the-markets-for-trading-success Even if you want to do trading-related stuff, there's plenty of backtesting, strategy development and general reading around the topic you can do without actually trading. Oh and the spreads are HUGE too!

Earnings calendar for this week, still a few big names to go through;

Hi, an index is designed to mimic or track a basket of companies but won't do that 100% in real time as an index is a market unto itself with it's own market participants who will drive price up or down irrespective of the basket companies. So neither actually drives the other and so you get index traders responding to index chart patterns and structure regardless of what the basket is doing. Imbalances between index and basket will occur from time to time but will eventually work itself out. It's the same for ETFs that are designed to mimic or track an index, they are their own market and price will swing according to the actions of that market's participants rather than the index the ETF is based on.

Hey guy, Just uploaded a new post with some of our content linked. You can find the new forum by clicking here. This will just be a general chat on the upcoming election and how you think it will affect the markets. It would be great to get your ideas Have a great weekend!

Hey @pnda112k Thanks for your feedback message. We only offer two types of orders to open. One is the limit order which is buying/ selling at a more favorable level. If you're buying, the price will be lower than the market price. If you were wanting to buy at a higher price then it's a stop order, which can be subject to negative slippage. You must have placed a stop order which means you can get filled at a worse price. I see the strategy you want to put in place but we're unable to offer a guaranteed open price with a stop order, sorry.

No break out today alas, waiting for tomorrow's NFP and ISM manufacturing data releases maybe. Looks like a small scale A-B-C retrace off the channel resistance line, similar on AUDUSD. Might see another leg lower tomorrow or overnight, which could reach the Fib 50% but would expect price to return above the weekly channel line and close above by the end of play tomorrow if a breakout is on the cards. Hopefully we will actually see a confirmed breakout tomorrow on both EURUSD and AUDUSD, maybe also GBPUSD.

Bitcoin breakout rally? break higher that recent high at my 1 (blue) to confirm.

Hi, the SA40 is somewhat out of sync with the other main indices and although a US rate cut should boost the US indices and therefore have a knockon affect for others it's difficult to know how much of the expected cut has already been priced in as there is 97% expectancy of a 25 bp cut today (2% > 1.75%). On a confirmed rate cut I would still look for a triangle break to the up side and think to enter after a daily close above the line on next day continuation.

I had this problem when I used any other browser instead of Chrome. So now I stick to Chrome.

Woohoo. @DSchenk Well. I did cut my win a little early (just as well if you take a look at the chart) but they were close enough to 1:2 PL for me. I didn't manage to get my Balance down to £500, but it's not too important for now. I've made a note of my New Starting balance which was £1877 I think (i'll check) Profit went up to £35 initially and come right back down to £0 when I was about to close it thinking it failed. Let it run and it got back up to +£93 with a risk of £60 just below the Green Candle at around the 600p mark. However, I was lucky here. (I know-no place for luck) I had to use the 15M to see it break above the previous Red Candle. In at 624 Out at 655. Margin of just under £500. 1 Trade. Day 1 Win :D. Up 25% Buuuut, this was a Bad Trade.......Too Slow and already decent Pull back on the 5M. I've been very very Lucky. Duly Noted.

No election, no brexit until next scheduled election. GBP negative as market does not like this impasse and until EU grants extensions they will never reach any deal. debate and motion from 15.30 today. Eyes on the prize with vote at 17.00 latest, or any time between these two times...

The COT data is published once a week (Friday at 8:30), I'm looking for a user friendly format that I can include in thread on Mondays.

Fair and obvious ... the British way of doing business

Ross starting over, does this mean he is going to give up all the expensive subscriptions as well? As pointed out in early Sept from vid posted on this thread Ross explains he is paying $250 a day for his direct market access platform and high speed connections which doesn't include the commissions on his trades. Anyone trying to copy may struggle to keep up.

@Fib550 After speaking with our dealing desk they confirmed that there's always been a credit for short positions held. This can be changed by the desk or our risk analysis team but you will be able to see the changes on the information section on the deal ticket.

The target is purely technical at this stage. If the market had completed a retrace back in April 2019 I would have expected the $50 level to be broken and it may yet be as this rally is not yet confirmed for me. My thesis is that the April turn was a wave A not a C and the move down that ended with the massive gap up was a wave B so a wave C is next, which ordinarily should exceed the April high. After than I am looking for credible wave C end and turn zones, of which there are several, including $85 and the Long term Fib 50% zone. I don't need to worry about this now I just need to see if the rally will confirm, keep my stops close and move to break even as soon as practical and let it play out. Then price action will reveal, hopefully, where the market is heading in due course.

Hey @dmedin I've spoken to the marketing team about this. Although we have the footnote regarding the 6 hour time off, I do see where you're coming from so I will pass on the information. Luckily they sit very close to me! Thanks for leaving your feedback

Hey @Fib550 We can go through an example. So say you were trading Bitcoin ($1) contract. Lets say Bitcoin is at 7954.88/7990.88. When you open the position it will be in a loss of (($1 x (7990.88-7954.88)) = $36. What you have to remember is until you close that position the profit/ loss is not going to be realised. So say you had a running profit of $100, decide to close it and the rate of GBPUSD is 1.28658/1.28675. We incorporate the 0.5% fee into the FX rate when we close your position. So we divide the Bid by 1.005 and we times the Ask by 1.005. Meaning we would convert the Dollar profit ($100) at a rate of 1.280179/1.2931837. That's how we incorporate our conversion fee. If you were holding Bitcoin for longer than 10 days you have to be aware that the overnight funding is a percentage. If you're long you currently pay to hold the position. If you're short you will be credited for holding a position. This fee, because you're holding the dollar contract, will be based off the consideration of your trade. When calculated it will then be converted at the FX rate + our 0.5% fee. So if you were holding $1 contract, size 1, and the buy price of Bitcoin is 7980 at the time the fee is taken the charge would be (7980 x $1 x 0.0548%) = $4.37debit. This will then be converted to Sterling at the fx rate + our fee.

Pro Real Time keeps crashing. It's the most unstable platform I have used to date. Not impressed.

er, it was attempted humour, sorry for the fail.

you didn't comment? funny little video, I though at first it was the typical play, let me tell you some dirty secrets to show you can trust me then let me sell you something, and it was, but not really. So he's a company and been with IG a long time and is perfectly happy and will remain an IG customer for the foreseeable future, fine but; watch out for the PRT backtester? don't be fooled by all those flashing lights? didn't see the clearly stated client sentiment data as a contrarian indicator note. the signals service doesn't really work if you just follow it blindly, or you could fade the signals, which he stopped doing because? There you go, you have been warned ☹️

Yes, me too. They are of course 'championing our trading' by threatening to throw us under the bus to save their own skins. Very nice people.

Interesting set of charts; Chris Kimble @KimbleCharting 1d Are "High Times" about to return to pot stocks? After large declines, these stocks are each testing support at each (1).

you seem to set a good set of rules, but I have always found forks a little subjective, even personal. Different people see different ones. Here's mine

See this thread;

Remember Luncheon Vouchers? Every time I read an article like this I replace Crytpo/Bitcoin with Luncheon Voucher and Blockchain with database 😉: Whole Foods is not taking any risk on Bitcoin nor holding Bitcoin on it's accounts - it will simply allow bitcoin to be converted to fiat at it's stores, or rather it's accepting a "voucher" for a coffee, the voucher just so happens to have been bought with Bitcoin.

Check this out: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/10/21/aurora-cannabis-is-dumping-its-pot-which-may-be-a-sign-its-all-over/#5298dc955775 Seems like the end is nigh

I'm beginning to feel depressed (anxious, guilty, hopeless) and also the more I read about investing and trading, the less faith I have in it. Ignorance is definitely bliss. Hopefully after Brexit we will go back the glory days of the British Empire when poor people were kept in their place, and not given too much education for their own good (thus giving them unrealistic expectations).