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Showing content with the highest reputation since 15/06/18 in all areas

  1. 17 points
    Both through the web platform and ProRealTime... I cannot close out an open position on US500... IG are you going to refund any money lost because of your techincal error?
  2. 12 points
    I don't know what expectations you had when you started David, mine were to make a lot of money and retire. That didn't happen. After a while I stopped trading, took a step back and looked at what was happening. I had none of the stuff mentioned above which are needed for success. What I did have were lots of trading websites, discussion forums, tips websites, news feeds and so on. A confusion of noise with no structure and no plan. If you decided to open a business you would have a business plan. You would probably open a business that you knew something about and had lots of experience in, or could hire people to fill the gaps. You would know how much things cost, how much you could charge, and what the likely market would be. You would do a lot more than that and still might fail for any number of reasons. Spread betting, or any other form of trading is a business. You need to know what you are doing, you need to do it consistently and you need to keep monitoring your performance. To make money you need an 'edge' - which is simply a strategy which over the long term gives you more in wins than losses. It doesn't really matter what that edge is, just that you have it and trade it consistently. You do not need, and should avoid, trading on anyone elses advice. As I write I have a long position on Gold. I could explain why and someone might read this tomorrow, think it sounds reasonable and decide to buy too. I mogt have sold by then and gone short. My advice would be worthless. If you want to make money here's how. Open a demo account, with a similar amount of funding to what you would have in a real account. Review what you already know about trading strategies and pick one that you think you understand. Research this and make sure that you know all of the details. Does it apply to all markets? Does it suit short term or long term trading? Why do you think that it would give you an edge? Write the whole plan down - preferably with a checklist of all conditions that need to be in place before you take a trade. Start trading it with the demo account. Keep doing that for months if you need to until you always stick to your plan. Review the results. Did you stick to the plan? Did you make enough demo profit for it to be worth your while? Keep going with this until you are sure, then start with a small trading account and see if you can still stick to the plan, and make money. As you succeed you can start increasing trade size or adding other strategies but slowly. Remember that the reason for doing this is to make money. If you can increase the value of your trading account by 5% in a year you are doing better than most savings accounts. 3% in a month doubles it in 2 years. Big wins are for adrenalin junkies. Steady consistent wins are for millionaires. Final thought: Spread betting is the hardest 'easy money' you will ever make. Michael
  3. 11 points
    Indeed I have been sat here for a good many tears, I mean years. Did I get rich quick, no. I do treat it as a business though, a buying and selling business. So like all careers there is a lot of theory to be grounded in plus a lot of practical to get experience in. There is probably a whole years worth of course work in just learning how to spot and avoid the traps. I picked out an old Tom Dante quote which sums it up rather well, see below.
  4. 9 points
    One of my open positions have disappeared form the positions tab. I had a total of 5 open positions, the number beside the positions tab says 4. There are only 4 positions displayed. However the account totals row in the bottom is behaving like the last position is still there, the total positions sum takes into account all 5 open positions, likewise with the market value and profit/loss columns.
  5. 9 points
    Hi - facing a new issue on the platform. My charts are being wiped out and set to the same default every few minutes/seconds. No matter what I configure, within a few moments it defaults to a 5min candle stick with no other indicators - what is happening?
  6. 9 points
    Ha ha, yes, exactly the same thing happened to me. I started a 4 year university course but realised I knew it all after the first year so I took the final exam and unbelievably I didn't pass. Clearly someone was to blame for this (other than me obviously) so I cast my eyes around and of course it must have been the college's fault. I mean all you have to do is take some indicators and chuck them on a chart and then pick out some pretty patterns right? I knew this would be easy for me as I'm good at spotting patterns. Clearly the fact that this approach failed meant the whole thing must be rigged. So next I scoured the internet looking for someone to tell me what to do and would you believe it but that didn't work either. The whole internet is telling me to do this or do that but when I applied these tips and tricks to the stocks I had carefully selected by chucking darts a stock page pinned to the wall nothing worked! I didn't realise I was competing in a two way auction, I thought I was just gambling like I do in Vegas where if the action is really hot and the big guys are throwing lots of money around and the spread is getting bigger and bigger then that is exactly the right time to jump in, boy was I suckered. It's not fair really as all I wanted, all I was trying to do, was to get rich quick, a very reasonable and quite simple goal really. The fact that this did not happen has made me sad and this has affected my relationships and it's all due to nothing less than completely unwarranted victimisation by the system I was trying to beat.
  7. 8 points
    I am Not able to see open positions. The customer hotline is also not working. What is the issue. Rectify ASAP.
  8. 7 points
    Hi IG, Any plans to become a supported broker on Tradingview? I like the IG web platform but Tradingview stock screener is great and would be nice to trade from there. https://uk.tradingview.com/brokers/
  9. 7 points
    Don't fall for it. Don't try and catch a falling knife. Manage your risk - use stops and guaranteed stops for the love of god if you're looking to hold stocks over night or ANYTHING over the weekend. If you're in to intraday trading think about options (my thing of late - check post history if you want) which manage risk when buying and stop you chasing losses. Get those alerts and notifications set up on your phone. Diversify a portfolio with some defensive stuff as well. Read read read read read the news people. Take a step back. Think about it. Actively say you're going to cut the emotion. ONLY THEN make your trade. Never risk more than you could lose. Any other things which would help? Lets share over this economic mardi gras...
  10. 7 points
    It's taken me over a year of demo account trading to "perfect" a strategy that is proving profitable on a weekly basis... I'm in this for the long run, so really no rush to get into the markets, but I think I am just about ready to enter the "real world". One of the major lessons I learnt over the year (beyond what has already been mentioned above), PATIENCE! Literally sitting watching the ticker for the right time to enter the trade has been key, you may miss a trade or two, but in the long run its pays to see confirmation in trend before taking on the risk. Oh, and when I say a year, I mean literally every day of the week for a minimum of 2 hours (excluding videos on yourtube, audio books, reading about trading etc).
  11. 6 points
    Righto, having used this web platform every day for the past year it decides to go mad. Really important trading day... every 30 seconds or so, every bleedin' drawing I've made, adjustment to chart, timeframe etc all resets back to a default 5min and deletes all drawings WHAT IS GOING ON!!
  12. 6 points
    I will be closing this thread as it is very old. If there are any updates relating to DRIP I will update Community. If anyone wishes to open a new thread please feel free to do so, or 'like' this post (you must be logged in) to show support for div reinvestment options on share dealing.
  13. 5 points
    To make your trading plan and trade strategy just answer these questions then move on to the testing section below. 1/ TRADING PLAN a) System What type of trader will I be? Swing, trend trader, trend follower, day trader, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, option trader, another, or a combination? What time frame will I be trading on? What will I be trading? Will I trade long or short or both? What has to happen to invalidate my trading system and make me look for flaws in my thinking? b) Psychology How big of a position size can I mentally and emotionally handle trading? Does my chosen trading method fit my personality for activity and risk tolerance? Do I actually enjoy trading? Do I have the mental strength to persevere until successful in trading? c) Risk How much of my trading capital will I risk per trade? How many losses in a row with this level of risk will lead to blowing up my trading account? How much will I lose at one time if all my open positions go against me at the same time? How correlated with each other are all your open positions and your potential trading vehicles that are on your watch list? 2/ TRADING STRATEGY What signals my entry? What will signal my exit? Where will the initial stop loss go? Do I use a trailing stop or a price target to lock in profits? What is the probability of my trade working out based on historical data? (see testing below). STRATEGY TESTING Ok, so you've discovered that a random approach doesn't work so you've found a strategy but you'll have no confidence to trade with real money until you've proved to yourself it actually works and that means testing and collecting data over a number of trades on demo first. The simplest data to collect are the win rate and the average risk/reward ratio of say 20 demo trades, you can then plot these onto a profitability graph to see if the strategy actually works before you risk real money. To collect the trade data you will need a simple spread sheet, try this one https://forums.babypips.com/t/free-excel-trading-journal/52738 Just fill in these 9 green boxes for excel to auto calc the Win rate and the average Risk/Reward Ratio. The date is by drop down box as is the asset, you can change the list of assets to whatever on the 'List Variables' tab. Use the Take Profit as the exit price even if it's a loss and leave the Exit Price column blank. Take the Win Rate and the Average RRR and plot them on the graph, anywhere above the red line is profitable, below the line is not. NB/ The journal works fine on windows excel but if opening it in Windows 10 OpenOffice you will get the 'invalid entry' pop up for columns G,H, and I, click on the letter to highlight (G, H & I) > data > validity and uncheck the 'show error message'. OpenOffice has also allocated the currency dropdown box for G, H & I so just ignore. So now you have a trading plan, that probably won't change much unless your circumstances change, and you also have a trading strategy to bolt onto the plan, you may have 2 or 3 of them, say a buy the dip strategy and a breakout strategy, and you also have a means to test that strategy on demo to gauge if it really does have a chance of working out on a live account. You may go through a number of strategies or make changes and retest again and again before finding something to test on a live account but at least you're not losing real money to find out if it really works or not because if it doesn't work on demo it won't work live. Best of Luck
  14. 5 points
    Web app and mobile apps are not working in the middle of the trading day! This is precious money making time but IG is making it going bankrupt time!
  15. 5 points
    The same thing happened to me after the scheduled maintenance today. I'm missing seven positions! The sum total seems correct. I've just shot an email to the helpdesk. I'm assuming they're going to be receiving a lot of these emails, and I sure hope they get this fixed pronto.
  16. 5 points
    Hi, wonder if could offer a bit of friendly advice? It seems to me that you could really do with introducing some urgent risk management into your trading. Monitoring large positions is essential, as is learning how to cut losses, not adding to positions that are already seriously in the red. Can highly recommend a book by Mark Douglas called 'The Disciplined Trader' - it's a great read and could help give you the mindset to protect your capital in future and avoid these kinds of situations arising. IG will give margin calls as appropriate, but are under no obligation to notify you that your portfolio is being decimated as you put it. Really sorry that you're so badly under water...but learning to cut losses quickly is the best way to avoid serious losses (and significant overnight funding charges).
  17. 5 points
    There does not seem to be any discussion about what retail traders can do in light of the ESMA rulings. I want to know if anyone can let me know a company which is not subject to the Draconian ruling. My opinion is that retail traders are being discriminated against and also are being punished for wanting to spend their money in the way they want; It seems Spfeadbetting is being classed as gambling and therefore spreadbetters are a stupid lot. EMSA really have no idea how things work in real life - they need CONTROL over people and think they know best. I am nieve I know, but I do not care - I have asked ESMA what compensation they will be paying me for the money spent on useless courses, loss of any earnings, and loss of freedom to choose. I am also taking this to the Ombudsman as I sincerely think retail traders are being grossly treated and demonised an also being discriminated against. My opinion and also other peoples opinions obviously do not matter to them. i do think this is a DRACONIAN move on their part and not well thought out at all. It seems to me that they want to be seen as 'doing something' rather than looking for a solution - they obviously think retail traders are a dumb lot and cannot think for themselves. They are supposedly doing it in the name of' PROTECTION, we know all about this as prohibition has always been a first move for people who need to show they are in control of peoples lives - there is no true caring thught here - just an if you don't like it, you will have to lump it attitude. EMSA is not a parent and retail traders are not children.
  18. 5 points
    If you're looking for the most comprehensive economic calendar around this is the one for you, somewhat more comprehensive than the IG version at any rate. 🙂 https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
  19. 5 points
    What is the EOM indicator? An indicator that highlights the relationship between price and volume and is particularly useful when assessing the strength of a trend. As implied by its name, it is used to measure the ease of movement in price. It is a volume-based oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line. In general, when the oscillator is above zero, the price is advancing with relative ease. When the indicator is below zero, the prices are declining with relative ease. A wide range (difference between highs and lows) on low volume implies that price movement was relatively easy, as it did not take much volume to move prices. Alternatively, a small range and large volume indicates that price movement was difficult as there was a relatively small price movement on high volumes. Other important things to remember with EOM The closer the EMV line is to zero, the less ease of movement on that specific period. The bigger the spike in the EMV line, the more ease of price movement, either positive (if above the zero line) or negative (if below the zero line). The ease of movement indicator can also be used as an average, by adding together various single-period ease of movements and dividing them by the number of periods being considered. By smoothing out the indicator over time it can be used to identify trends and areas of convergence/divergence. A graphic example Let’s review the EOM indicator by using it in a real-life example which took place at the beginning of Dec ‘18. Using the Wall Street 30 min chart we can see a correlation between the EOM indicator and subsequent market movements at the opening of the session on Monday. Looking at the chart below you can see there is a positive spike in the EOM line which holds for a few periods before it starts declining. The cause for the spike is likely to have been the bullish (but cautious) reaction to a ceasefire between the US and China on trade tariffs. This could have meant that traders were holding Wall Street pushing the price higher, however maybe not as many people bought into the rally, therefore creating a big range on low volume. To summarise: After the initial positive reaction from the markets, traders could have become more sceptic about the viability of the ceasefire, and therefore a more bearish reaction comes in to play. This increases the range as lower lows appear maintaining the EOM at a high level. As more and more traders become sceptic, highs become lower, decreasing the range, which paired with a stable volume results in a declining EOM line. As you can see from the graph, the EOM line reacts before the actual price does, as a tightening range indicates that investors are becoming more bearish, which can eventually lead to a decline in price if it sustained over a period.
  20. 5 points
    I would suggest EURUSD @eloronz for the following reasons: It is the largest FX pair market by volume and value and therefore the most stable, least prone to flash moves, which are a killer for new traders (and old I guess but old hands are more aware of this phenomenon) GBPUSD can be a bit spiky from a technical perspective, often spikes through a support/resistance zone before conforming, which makes stop placement more challenging USDJPY is often impacted by flight to safety Yen buying With EURUSD you are effectively trading, it is a better proxy than the USD basket (DX) EURUSD may be impacted by Brexit nonsense short term but is less prone to spikes around this than GBPUSD I would steer clear of non USD pairs for now, it is easier to focus on the USD impact EURUSD conforms well to charting and other technical analysis
  21. 5 points
    I'm happy to announce that you can now add drawings to the indicator study area both on desktop and mobile of the IG charts. This new functionality has been developed on the back of client feedback submitted to Community, from within the dealing platform, and directly with our Trading Services and client facing teams. If you have any other requests, please add them in the comment section below and we'll make sure the charting dev team and product owners see them. You can now draw on indicators For instance, get more insight from your RSI indicator by drawing a trendline directly on the study area. The ability to draw on these indicators, such as MACD and volume, opens up a number of new options for technical analysis. Trends, for example, can add granular insight into market dynamics and can help improve the accuracy of your TA and strategy. But that's not all... We also; added the measure tool to the mobile charts and made it persistent on your screen so that it does not disappear when you tap or click away. improved the usability of the charts so that you cannot move your drawings by mistake when moving your charts sideways. To move a drawing, you would need to explicitly select it first. improved the general rendering performance of these drawings. Coming very soon! we've added the option to activate or deactivate the snapping on the candles. This should be rolled out around mid October. All the best and happy trading IG Community Moderator Team
  22. 5 points
    Very much similar to the ADVFN Toplists, it would be really useful if the mobile app could give a quick top 20 risers and fallers (by points or percentage) https://uk.advfn.com/insights/toplist/LSE This is one of the first things I go to in the mornings and through the day. It could cover all LSE market, or UKX, AIM, midcap etc..?
  23. 4 points
    Dear IG, When will dividend reinvestment be available on share dealing and ISA accounts? This is such a key and fundamental part of long term investing! To not have this feature is very poor and is pushing me towards a different provider. I really rate IG as a whole but to not have DRIP is pretty much a deal breaker when deciding where to conduct my long term investing. Regards, James
  24. 4 points
    It really is unacceptable. I’ve been trading with IG for 4-5 years and experienced various outages and frustrations with the stability of the platform, typically at the most inconvenient of times. However, these outages in the last 24 hours are serious. Calling to deal doesn’t help when market volatile.
  25. 4 points
    Trading app is very unstable. Could not see my open position. Can't close my position. Same thing happen 12 hrs ago. Please rectify it asap. I need to close some position.....this is terrible. Will you bear if there are losses.
  26. 4 points
    Usually IG does refund if the error is 100% theirs but often you need to provide yourself Screenshot and video... which is a little ridiculous. I'm now using a Desktop recoding tool every single time I trade with IG because last time there was an outage I couldn't close some long position I had which then endup being all negative. I had luckily took a video with my phone as a proof otherwise theyr would have not refund anything.
  27. 4 points
    is there a reason I'm still getting charged commsion even though I'm making 3 trades a month?
  28. 4 points
    Please consider adding the VWAP indicator to the platform. I see it's used in Pro Realtime / Meta trader, but for some reason not on the main web platform.
  29. 4 points
    I queried this via IG support chat before opening my ISA. I was advised the custody fee would only be applied once for both Share Dealing and ISA and only then if a minimum of 3 trades were not made in the previous quarter (in either account or in a combination of the two). A dealing account with zero holdings would not incur a custody charge anyway, as it's a fee for holding custody of shares, rather than an account management or inactivity fee. In a similar way, 3 trades made in my dealing account in March entitled me to the £3 UK commission rate and free US dealing in my ISA account from the moment I opened it on 6 April. Hope that helps.
  30. 4 points
    Thanks for the responses guys. As I phoned them to discuss the situation I had a voicemail from my account manager cancelling the trade as they suspected it was a mistake. Great service 👍
  31. 4 points
    The ability to have two separate instances of two different trading platforms in two different tabs of my browser. Right now if I navigate to the new share dealing platform in one tab, my spread betting account in the other tab automatically redirects to the new share dealing platform also. Totally unnecessary.
  32. 4 points
    they never really advertise it but think its worth noting
  33. 4 points
    Hey Guys, I’m glad to announce I will be your new community point of contact. I'm taking over from @JamesIG. I have worked at IG for four years on our trading floor but have moved to manage the community. It will be great to hear any feedback you have for IG and I will happily push these idea to our developers. Do make sure if you need anything answered to @ me and I will respond as soon as possible. Thanks, Charlotte 😊
  34. 4 points
    Hihi, 30pt spread on weekend cable is fixed. We're looking at reducing if feasible / volatility permitting (for reference, narrowest indicative prices we saw from 1900 Sunday were 50 pts wide). How much of a factor in deciding whether to trade on the weekend is spread, what would you see as attractive to trade? Regarding true 24/7 trading - it's very difficult. We keep having to trade off between release time & platform up time - unfortunately trading hours aren't likely to increase soon. Only silver lining is that usually the 2200-0400 period is very quiet in terms of macro events. Open to any other feedback re. weekend markets. Thanks, Ludwik
  35. 4 points
    Here some of my thoughts on the importance of ATR (Average True Range) in Day Trading. Here's my thought process: In order to make profit you need volatility Volatility is the change in price of an asset over time As day traders we're interested in volatility per day To measure this I take the true range over one day, which is effectively the high of day minus the low of day and take the average of that over 200 periods If we assume we only take one position on a given day, in theory the max profit I get is when I buy exactly at low of day and sell exactly at high of day (or short-sell at high of day and cover at low of day) I need to subtract the spread from this max profit The margin factor requirements from IG define how much I actually can make in terms of £. Higher margin factor means lower qty to trade with, means lower profit, even if Average True Range is high I pulled some data today to find assets which fulfil requirements below low spread low margin requirements high average true range I looked into Indices, Crypto, Metals, Currencies, Commodities and Shares. I didn't fully automate the queries, so just pulled some snapshot data in the below. There might be some nuggets I missed, if you spot any, please let me know. (All profit calculations are based on a hypothetical £10k account - for larger accounts things may look differently because the margin factor rises in tiers for large accounts) Indices IG has a few indices at 5% margin factor, which outperform the rest. Only exception is Australia 200 which is hanging behind the China 300, while the latter has 10% margin factor. Most profitable ones to trade would be NASDAQ, NIKKEI and DAX. Interesting finding for me as currently trading the FTSE 100. Might give NASDAQ a try. Crypto Perform worse than Indices, because of 50% margin factor. ATR is much higher compared to Indices though, so if IG lowers the margin factor at any time in the future, these may become interesting. Metals Nickel and Spot Gold seem to do well. Gold because it only has 5% margin factor. Nickel because it has a large ATR of 2.8%. Currencies There are only few currency pairs which have a margin factor of 3.33% and a few more with 5%. Those perform better than the rest with 10%. ATR is relatively low here. Best ones I could find are GBP pairs like GBP/JPY, GBP/ZAR and GBP/CHF. Might be related to Brexit and high volatility in GBP at the moment? Commodities Surprisingly perform relatively well. Carbon Emissions, Natural Gas and US Crude at the top spots. 10% margin factor with relatively high ATR of around 3% I might give those a try. Shares Now shares are a little bit different to the rest, because they can be very volatile at times and don't move at all at other times. The best bet might be to find shares which were recently falling sharply aka trading well below 200 EMA. IG then increases the margin factor, but that might take some time. So if you find a stock which recently fell sharply and you can get in before IG increases margin factor you have insane profit % of 50%+ like Metro Bank and Kier Group in the below. Difficulty here is that the True Range has huge swings itself and you need to time it right to get on a big move. That's why I'm sticking with Indices at the moment. So, if we ignore shares for a moment, the top 3 assets to day trade according to this theory would be: 1) Carbon Emissions 2) US Tech 100 3) Natural Gas What do you think about this approach? Does it make any sense? Commodities seem to be doing well in this approach - has anyone in here experience trading them? (US Crude and Iron Ore would be place 4 and 5 - that makes 4 out of the overall top 5 being commodities and 1 Index)
  36. 4 points
    Hi there. In my first year I lost money; a genuine massacre. But I did not give-up, as I am quite resilient and kept going in trading and losing money again and again in the second and the third year. Until the forth year, where I reached the break-even. Now I am constantly and largely profitable, quarter after quarter, since last 4 years. I learnt how to trade the hard way. It is quite a common path, I discovered later reading the Market Wizards - a book I suggest you read - a collection of interviews done by Jack Schwager to a group of worldwide top traders. So funny to discover I was not alone having burnt my account at the beginning of my trading experience. The game is complex and lots of things influence your performance, including your emotions when you see the P&L in deep red. For that, it was very helpful to me to discover my limits: how much money I can afford to lose without losing my emotional control, sleeping hours or my temper - I also had moment where I was unpleasant with my family. But this is not acceptable, as you wrote. How much money can I lose without caring? 50 pounds? 500 pounds? 5000 pounds? 50000? It is all personal and you need to ask yourself what is your limit, as this should size your trade. At the end It is a game of probabilities and the more you trade the more you have opportunities to finalize your trading strategy/strategies, selecting only the ones with high probability of success. But nobody is right 100% and some of then will go wrong. Also for the suggestions given by Trade of the weeks: no discounts for anybody. But listen: the market is not fake and nobody is conspiring against you or anybody. Don't take this perspective to quit. There are retail traders (like me) that are constantly making profit. The break-even is an outstanding results, as you are - at this point - on the top quartile. Learning when not to trade also improved my performance a lot - as you cannot lose when all your positions are closed. As we speak, I am out of all markets and this is average 70% of the time. I take a trade only when all the homework is signalling high probability of success and from the past I scaled down from 20 trades a week to approx 2 or 3. Or sometimes zero. For every single trade I also write a lot, in my trading journal. Not just the pre-analysis, why I have selected the trade, the overall risk assessment and the related stop, the target price, all the multi-frame chart analysis . But also I record what happens during the trade: I write how the market is moving, the intensity of waves. And I also record my level of emotional reaction during the trade: from 1 to 10 I want to know if the trade was completely emotional agnostic or if I lost my sleeping. At the end, you need to be a Marine soldier studying every centimeter of the the battle field, to survive. Including you. Keep going with just 1 pip per trade - small money, but real trades. Don't give up. Improve your strategy, record your performance and try to understand when and why you have been successful or not. One day you will reach the profitability. Good luck.
  37. 4 points
    Interesting proxy Bond yield chart here on a RRG using ETF's to demonstrate the 2 - 10 yield curve flattening over the 5 week period may give a clue to near future bond markets. (see article link) https://www.stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ignore_this_chart/2018/10/is-the-bond-market-sending-us-a-message.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter For anyone not familiar with Kempenaer's graphs here is a link to a tutorial page. https://www.stockcharts.com/docs/doku.php?id=other-tools:rrg-charts Also here is a 5 week period RRG of US indices with Dow moving from improving zone to leading while S&P composite moves from lagging to improving and Nasdaq stuck firmly in weakening.
  38. 4 points
    The ascendancy of Asia and in particular China is due to Western short term outlook whereas China takes a long term perspective. At the moment, China enjoys an unfair playing field. Why would they want to change this? As US China trade talks have been going on for decades, it is obvious that they are following a similar strategy to the Roman commander Scipio Africanus. Delay, delay until the time is right to strike. This is obvious what they are doing with their trade talks with the US. It is just impossible to have the current trade imbalance forever. Ceteris Paribus, China will become the technological superpower that could easily eclipse the US as they don't look at quarterly bottom lines but 10, 20 or even 100 years ahead. The western powers could easily be likened to Hannibal whereas the Chinese to Scipio. Hannibal was a brilliant tactician and had initial gains in Spain and in Italy. But the better strategist, Scipio ultimately prevailed leading to the total destruction of the Cartheginians. So perhaps the West should learn from history if it wants to remain the dominant economic world powers. I am not a fan of Trump but in his position vs China I support his stance. If unchecked, China will soon become the world's largest economy and all that entails like being able to outspend the US on defence. Will the world be a better place with China as the dominant super power? Think the Uighur community and the Tibetans might disagree that it would.
  39. 4 points
    Following a few questions from clients regarding the surge in Italian bond yields in the last week, I have put together a quick overview of why this has taken place. Bond yields are the return an investor is going to earn for investing its money in government bonds. The better the outlook of a country’s economy, the safer the investment will be and the lower the requested return from investors, hence a lower yield. Therefore, bond yields are inversely related to their price and the perception of strength within a country’s economy. The issue with Italy is the fact that the Italian populist government announced a more fiscally aggressive deficit budget than was anticipated. This budget was out of EU-mandated guides, which spooked investors, as Italy is under enormous pressure to control its financial position because its debt-to-GDP stands at more than twice the eurozone’s permissible limit. If Italy’s spending is not controlled, it could face a Greek-style debt crisis, putting a lot of pressure on the EU to control Rome’s budget indiscipline. Despite an announcement on Wednesday the 3rd of October, where the Italian government gave in to EU pressures and reduced the spending deficit for the next 3 years, the sentiment regarding the safety of the Italian government is still very low. This is evident because the spread between the Italian 10-year bonds and the German 10-years bonds, which act as a benchmark for sovereign risk, rose more than 300 points last week, the highest level since March 2014. This increase in government yields proves that investors are weary of the Italian government’s ability to stick to EU guidelines and believe the Italian economy is very unstable, therefore requiring higher returns to compensate for the uncertainty. I hope you find this piece clarifies the current events, if you have any questions just ask. Feel free to "@" me in your discussions.
  40. 4 points
    Hello all, to transfer shares out of IG, you will have to request the receiving broker to contact us to initiate the transfer. As mentioned above, our share trading accounts operate under a direct custody model, meaning that instead of you – the client – being personally registered on CHESS, it is our custodian Citicorp Nominees who will hold the HIN for all shares held with us. The custody model is a standard global practice that allows our clients to trade local and international shares easily and is cost effective. For this reason, we will not be able to provide you a HIN or SRN. Please ask the receiving broker to contact us, and we will provide this information to them directly . Generally, to complete a transfer form, the receiving broker only needs our PID (CHESS Participant Identification number), which is 20018. In addition, broker-to-broker transfers are free (like to CommSec or NebTrade), issuer sponsored transfers will incur a $50 charge per line of stock. I hope the above clarifies, if you have any further queries please do not hesitate to contact us.
  41. 4 points
    Same here, will be taking my business to selfwealth. This simply isn't what I signed up for.
  42. 4 points
    I will pass on a advise I was given, when I was starting: 1st You need time to learn. I know that sounds obvious, but in trading everybody expects direct results after starting to trade. That is a bit like buying the first tennis racket and hoping to play Wimbledon next year. 2nd You need a strategy that fits your style of live. Try to figure out how long you would like to sit in front of the trading desk. There is scalping on the 1 minute chart, there is swing trading on an end of day basis (which needs you to check charts and trades for 30 min a day) and everything between. A top 10 ATP clay court baseline specialist will lose most matches trying to perform serve and volley on hardcourt only. 3rd Combine the first 2 and add very defensive money management to learn. You said, you had a swing trade strategy lasting 2-3 days. Lets asume your average trade lasts 2 days and lets assume you would find 100 trades a year. Lets further say that for training purposes (remember, we are not here to win money but learn in the first year or two) you would risk only 0.5% of your starting bankroll per trade. That would mean 200 losing trades in a row would kill your starting bankroll (which should be a training size if you use real capital or a demo account). In the case of 100 trades per year that would mean, you are out of capital in the worst case after 2 years of training, and 200 losing trades in a row would prove the strategy is not really good as well ? These 2 years will teach you so many things about the strategy, the markets, the broker and the software you use that you only need a mentor to ask questions from time to time instead of the mentor telling you what to do. Problem is most people are ot willing to train for 2 years and so they pay a lot of money to the market while searching for short cuts that do not exist. Regards
  43. 4 points
    Trade War Relief, But How Much? Finally, some trade war respite. Or at least, what looks like relief. Following week after week of steadily escalating threats and a few decisive actions (and retaliations) along the way, there was finally a joint statement of agreement between key global leaders. Following their meeting in Washington DC, US President Donald Trump and European Union President Jean Claude-Juncker issued a statement of success this past Wednesday. Any pause in this quickly ballooning threat to the global economic and financial order is welcome, but that doesn’t mean we should accept the event at face value. Did this summit result in a legitimate course correction for the growing destructive force was the press conference a political event designed to allow both leaders to claim a victory for their constituents? To evaluate that, we need to consider the terms. There was a commitment made by the EU to purchase more US-produced soybeans and natural gas. That seems encouraging at first blush, but pressing individual members to increase consumption is not reasonable. Vows to continue working towards solutions to the metals tariffs and avoiding tax on autos along with the suggestion that they would work together towards ‘zero tariffs’ is likely more enthusiasm than a plan of action. Not everything was a means to score political point. The agreement not to introduce new tariffs so long as they were negotiating is material as it curbs fear of an impending 20 percent tariff on European autos by the US and the $300 billion retaliation threatened by the EU. This glad-handing may be lacking for tangible action, but it can help curb fears of imminent escalation. That said, general capital market benchmarks – such as US equity indices – seemed little perturbed by actual progress in the economic fight these past few months. Let’s hope that aloofness and the fresh optimism holds moving forward, because this theme has not likely hit its crest. The largest threats have been made by the US against China. The Trump administration is likely putting tension on other fronts besides China as a means to amplify the leverage on this economic powerhouse. When the US eases back against developed world counterparts like EU, perhaps they expect those countries to ingratiate themselves to the US and head off critique for their handling of relationships with China. Don’t expect trade wars to truly be on the decline – much less resolved – with last week’s developments. Fed, BoE and BoJ Rate Decisions for Individual and Collective Influence The ECB rate decision this past week didn’t earn the Euro much in the way of productive volatility. Compare that to the speculation it drove – much to the central bank’s chagrin – throughout 2017. For many traders, that makes it an event to disregard. However, market participants would be wise to keep tabs on these fundamental themes for both their longer term influence on the target currency over the coming weeks and months; but it is arguably even more important to account for such events collective sway over more systemic matters like the inextricable link between global monetary policy and risk trends. It would be wise to consider these larger concerns through the week ahead as we wade into a run of central bank decisions. On tap, we have five large central bank rate decision, but only three of them are ‘majors’. The greatest weight will be hefted by the Federal Reserve. In monetary policy terms, everything about this meeting will be well fleshed out by speculators. Through exceptionally transparent forward guidance, we know the group expects to hike four times this year and that they have operated ‘on the quarters’. This meeting is out of sync for that trend. The real interest is the language used to either maintain path to a September rate hike or to start pulling back from it. Furthermore, there will be some degree of interest to see if the Fed replies to the President’s critique of policy and the currency – though that may be more appropriate for individual members’ reflections. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Super Thursday meeting is expected to deliver a hike (77% chance according to swaps) and the Quarterly Inflation report. This is the most action-oriented event, but it will compete with Brexit for Sterling momentum and scaling up to global risk trends is not something this group’s policies have been capable of in this cycle. Finally, the Bank of Japan will no doubt keep its rates in place and the size of its stimulus program untouched. However, last week, reports surfaced that the group was discussing changing its stimulus approach to make it more ‘sustainable’. It is unclear exactly what that would entail, but given they are already at an extreme, it was read as a ‘hawkish’ shift. While these events can generate movement in their own currencies and local capital markets, do not underestimate the malleability of global risk trends under monetary policy. Years of excessive (extended well beyond the needs to stabilize growth and past the point of proving it would not readily translate into desired inflation) monetary policy has inflated market levels. It won’t be the wholesale withdrawal of stimulus across the board that will prompt sentiment rebalance but rather the anticipation normally associated to risk trends. FANG Has Set Up Apple as a More Important Capital Market Driver Earnings season has been mixed in the US thus far, but more important than the report of corporate numbers each trading session is the shift in bias surrounding these updates. There is considerable amount of ‘fudge’ room in reporting quarterly figures due to the dubious accounting allowances in GAAP (I obviously am not a fan). Yet, the details in questionable figures can be played up or played down depending on what the audience is willing to tolerate – or is actively seeking. With benchmark US indices struggling to regain the remarkably progress of 2017, sentiment has notably shifted towards earnings. No longer are the impressive elements of comprehensive reports amplified and the disappointing downplayed. The shortcomings are starting to be interpreted more readily in the general shortcomings that are more apparent in other areas of the economy. It is against this backdrop that we have had a troubled quarter from the concentrated speculative leader in the FANG. For those not familiar, it is an acronym of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google – some of the largest and fasting growing market cap stocks in the world. The fact that they are also tech, which is the sector that has outperformed in US markets; and US equities which have outpaced most other liquid ‘risk’ benchmarks speaks to the concentration. As important as this group is, there support is starting to turn to borderline burden. Where Google and Amazon’s figures were positive (though they came with very clear caveats in fines and income), the Netflix and Facebook reporting were outright pained. The former dropped while the latter collapsed from record high to official bear market in a day. Given what the FANG represents, the market has paid closer attention to the state of earnings and perhaps the bias that has been applied here so consistently. How to settle a 50/50 split in the FANG updates and the plateau established in the group’s price indexing? Add an ‘A’. Due Tuesday after the bell, Apple’s earnings will tap into key US tech firms and it has its own innate amplitude as the world’s largest market cap stock. It will be important whether it beats or misses, but even more crucial is how the market treats a better or worse outcome than expected. This event can carry far more weight than just the immediate reaction for AAPL shares.
  44. 4 points
    ING's cut out and keep crib sheet for today's ECB presser.
  45. 4 points
    So Much Risk, Status Quo is an Improvement In individual trading sessions or entire weeks where there is an overwhelming amount of important, scheduled event risk; we often find the market frozen with concern of imminent volatility. Even as a remarkable surprise prints on the docket early in the week, the impact it generates is often truncated by the concern that the subsequent release can generate just as much shock value but in the opposite direction. Many opportunities have been spoiled by such situations. Yet, what happens if we face the same situation on a grander scale? What if the threats are thematic, global and frequently lacking a specific time frame? We are facing just such a scenario now. The most troublesome subject is the unpredictable winds from the global trade wars. For influence, this is a systemic threat as the economic pain will inevitably come to a head. If we had an end date to work with, there would be a more decisive risk aversion, but it is the uncertainty of pacing that leaves the markets to drift with anxiety. Most critical updates in this ‘war’ have come out of the blue in the form of a tweet from US President Donald Trump. Add to this fully capable theme conflicting – though less capricious – matters, and there is just enough sense of opportunity in short-term efforts to keep bulls clinging to hope. Monetary policy, new and failing economic relationships, corporate earnings and more can fill in between shocks of new tariff threats. Though, if we came to a scenario of a universal dovish shift in central banks (or any other theme for that matter), would it be enough to offset the blight to global growth from trade wars? Not likely. Any Whiff of Fed Worry and a Dollar with Everything to Lose I weighed out my theory last week that Fed policy can only disappoint moving forward. That is not to say it can maintain a sense of status quo – it certainly can. However, the genuine opportunities for this central bank to ‘surprise in favor of the bulls’ is so improbable as to be impractical. It has already established a pace remarkably aggressive relative to counterparts. If conditions continue to support growth and optimism, it would lead other central banks onto a path to close the gap with the Fed. If economic and financial health floundered, the Fed would in turn have to ease its pace. This past week, the CPI data gave quantitative support for the status quo – though not any material Dollar lift. The Fed’s monetary policy update to Congress on the other hand laced its confidence on the economic outlook with modest concern over the fallout from trade wars while a separate report suggested the tax cuts would have less positive effect on the economy than previously anticipated. You can bet Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will have to address questions on both fronts when he testifies before the Senate Wednesday in the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. There are many Congressmen and –women from both parties who have called out the President’s aggressive position on trade as self-defeating. Powell will want to avoid triggering market fears (avoiding volatility is a third, unspoken mandate of the central bank), but the lawmakers will push the topic whether to illustrate the damage they fear or to earn political points. If he admits growth is at risk from the advance of trade wars, it would signal to the market that the pacing already baked in is less stable than what is presumed, and the passive premium behind the dollar may start to bleed off. China Data Run and Data Questions China is in a very difficult position. It is attempting to transition itself from methods of growth that are impossible to maintain over the long term without inadvertently causing disastrous instability. To successfully make this ‘evolution’ to an economy primarily supported by domestic consumption, stable capital markets and a wealthier population (rather than leveraged financing and questionable export policies), the government requires a remarkable amount of stability. The healthy risk appetite and moderate growth registered for the global economy over the past five years was the perfect environment upon which to pursue this effort. That is especially true because the Chinese data that already draws a fair amount of skepticism from the rest of the world would look like an unlikely idyllic steering for the economy – a pace that could be dubiously attributed to the general environment. Now, however, that gentle landing has been disrupted by the aggression from the United States. The drive to escalate trade wars threatens not just the important trade between to two countries, it risks pushing disbelief over China’s statistics to the breaking point. Though they would not likely show serious pressure in any area of the economy or financial system that they control, markets have grown adept at reading between the official lines when it comes to China. Spurring fears of a ‘hard landing’ for the world’s second largest economy could spur capital flight as foreign investors look to repatriate and nationals attempt to slip through controls to diversify their exposure. It should be said that if there is a crisis in China, it will spread to the rest of the world; but some may be happy if China were permanently put off the path to securing its position as the antipodean super power to the US. It is this big picture landscape that we must keep in mind as the important data of the coming week – China 2Q GDP, fixed investment, surveyed jobless rate, retail sales and foreign direct investment – crosses the wires with unsurprisingly little impact on the controlled USDCNH exchange rate. Any questions, just ask.John Kicklighter
  46. 4 points
    This blog post is to update everyone of the themes that DailyFX expects to focus on in the week ahead. Given the focus of previous weeks, the backdrop market conditions and the event risk ahead; the three topics below will be particularly important in our coverage. Risk trends amid trade wars If you somehow were in doubt that trade wars were already underway, the enactment of reciprocal $34 billion tariffs by the United States and China on each other this past week should banish that disbelief. For much of the world, the score is one whereby the US has triggered an opening import tax on the world’s second largest economy for what it perceives as intellectual property theft, and China has retaliated in kind. From the Trump administration’s perspective, the actions are a long overdue move to balance decades of unfair trade practices. Both feel they are reacting rather than instigating which gives both sides a sense of righteousness that can sustain escalating reprisals. Yet, as discussed previously, this is not the first move in the economic engagement. The United States’ metals tariffs was the first outright move that came without the pretense of operating through WTO channels. And, in a speculative market where the future is factored into current market price; the unilateral and extraordinary threats should be considered the actual start. The anticipation of a curb on global growth and capital flow very likely was a contributing factor to the stalled speculative reach and increased volatility over the past three months. Yet, markets have not collapsed under the fear of an economic stall with values pushing unreasonable heights. Perhaps this market simply needs to see the actual evidence of fallout before it starts moving to protect itself. This past week, the midnight cue for the tariffs notably didn’t send capital markets stumbling. In fact, the major US indices all advanced through Friday’s session. Blissful ignorance can last for ‘a little longer’, but blatant disregard for overt risks on a further reach for yield is hoping for too much. A Brexit breakthrough…to the next obstacle Heading into a full cabinet meeting this past Friday, headlines leveraged serious worries that UK Prime Minister Theresa May would find herself moving further into a corner on a split Brexit view from which she would no longer be able to escape a confidence vote checkmate. Yet, the reported rebel ministers that were pushing for a more stringent position on trade and market access in the divorce procedures seemingly relented. May was free to pursue a ‘free trade area for goods’ with close customs ties (though bank access would be restricted somewhat). From the market’s perspective, this is a tangible improvement in the general situation as it removes at least one level of ambiguity in a very complicated web. The foundation of ‘risk’ – as I’m fond to reiterate – is the uncertainty of future returns. If your investment is 95% likely to yield a given return, there is little risk involved. On the other hand, if that return is only 10% (regardless of how large it may be) there is a high risk associated. The same evaluation of this amorphous event applies. With the UK government on the same page in its return to the negotiation table, there is measurably less uncertainty. That said, this was only an agreement from one side of the discussion; and the EU has little incentive to give particularly favorable terms which would encourage other members to start their own withdrawal procedures. Furthermore, there is still a considerable range of issues for which the government and parliament are still at odds. If you are interested in the Pound, consider what is feasible for any bullish exposure with the cloud cover of uncertainty edging down from 100% to 90%. Fed monetary policy can only disappoint from here We don’t have a FOMC meeting scheduled for this coming week; but in some ways, what is on the docket may have greater sway over monetary policy speculation. The US central bank has maintained a policy of extreme transparency, going so far as to nourish speculation for rate hikes through their own forecasts and falling just short of pre-committing. They cannot pre-commit to a definitive path for policy because they must maintain the ability to respond to sudden changes in the economic and financial backdrop. And, making a sudden change from a vowed move will trigger the exact volatility the policy authority is committed to avoiding. Yet, how significant is the difference between an explicit vow on future monetary policy and a very heavy allusion in an effort at ‘transparency’. The markets adapt to the availability of evidence for our course and fill in with whatever gaps there are with speculation. This level of openness by the Fed sets a dangerous level of certainty in the markets. With that said, what is the course that we could feasibly take from here? Is it probable that the rate forecast continues to rise from here – further broadening the gap between the Fed and other central banks? That is what is likely necessary to earn the Dollar or US equities greater relative value given its current favorable standing isn’t earning further gains. More likely, the outlook for the Fed will cool whether that be due to the US closing in on its perceived neutral rate, economic conditions cooling amid trade wars or the increasing volatility of the financial markets jeopardizing onerous yields. Where the Dollar may have underperformed given the Fed’s policy drive in 2017, it still carries a premium which can deflate as their outlook fades. This puts the upcoming June US CPI reading and the Fed’s monetary policy update for Congress in a different light. All of this said, this is not the only fundamental theme at play when it comes to the Dollar. There is trade wars, reserve diversification and general risk trends. Interestingly enough, all of those carry the same skew when it comes to the potential for impact. Any questions, just ask. John Kicklighter
  47. 4 points
    A trading forum and help and support network for IG clients Over the last few months we have been working on a new layout for your Community, as well as adding greater functionality and new content areas. Today is the 'go live' date and we hope you like what you see. Have a browse, and if you have any feedback or suggestions please add a comment below. Maybe take this opportunity to make your first Community post if you haven't already? This purpose of this forum is for like-minded clients to share trade ideas and discuss market opportunities, ask questions, and provide help and support to others. Learn strategies and trade ideas from experienced traders Give tips to the Community and share your market knowledge Perfect your trading by discussing ideas with others Get the most out of IG and ask the Community anything regarding trading or IG Anyone can browse the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to post or interact on Community. If you're new to Community and looking for a first step maybe check out the forum, or have a once over of our Community tutorials. We're also curious for any feedback you may have, so add a comment below to have your voice heard. We're always looking to improve our offering based on what traders want - so let us know! We migrated the old forum (and added some new features) We have migrated over all the posts, likes, 'kudos' and private messages from the previous version of the forum, as well as integrated the Community login with the wider IG eco system so you can enjoy a seamless digital experience between the platform and forum. You should be able to see all your previously posted content under the same Community username as you currently use. New content areas... Blogs: We have three blogs which we will be updated periodically. Market News - Daily morning briefings, index dividend adjustments, and one off articles IG Product Updates - A place to let you know about all the things we roll out IG Community Blog - Competitions, 'Ask the Expert' series, and Community updates Calendar: A way for discussion to be relevant and anchored to a specific date / time / macro event Our Picks: A hand picked showcase of the best IG Community has to offer. If individual client forum posts or comments get a significant number of upvotes then they may also be featured More to be rolled out shortly! ...and a few new features. Activity streams: If you're logged in you'll notice you can easily browse things such as 'unread' or 'followed' content. You can save individual search streams so they're available for the next time you log in Advanced search: An updated and intuitive search functionality Leaderboard: The Leaderboard keeps track of the hottest content and best users each day based on reputation received. You'll increase your chances of getting on here if you post more, receive more likes, and help others Community Profile: Your space in Community. Check yours out by clicking on your username in the top right hand corner Access IG Community - anytime, anywhere IG Community will be up 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The easiest way to access IG Community is using the top right hand 'Help' drop down in the dealing platform, but you can also access via our mobile apps (look under the help and support section - try it now), or by simply going to community.ig.com This initial rollout is only phase one of 'the big Community plan', and we'd love to hear your feedback. What do you like? What would you change if you had the chance? What new areas would you like to see? Let us know using the comments section below. Happy chatting IG Community Moderator Team
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