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Showing content with the highest reputation since 16/03/19 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Market action proves it again: this market hinges on the Fed: The US Fed has proven itself as the most important game in town for traders. The FOMC met this morning, and lo-and-behold: the dovish Fed has proven more dovish than previously thought; the patient Fed has proven more patient that previously thought. Interest rates have remained on hold, but everyone knew that was to be the case today. It was about the dot-plots, the neutral-rate, the economic projections, and the balance sheet run-off. On all accounts, the Fed has downgraded their views on the outlook. And boy, have markets responded. The S&P500 has proven its major-sensitivity to FOMC policy and whipsawed alongside a fall in US Treasury yields, as traders price-in rate cuts from the Fed in the future. The US Dollar sends some asset classes into a tizz: The US Dollar has tumbled across the board consequently, pushing gold prices higher. The Australian Dollar, even for all its current unattractiveness, has burst higher, to be trading back toward the 0.7150 mark. Commodity prices, especially those of thriving industrial metals, have also rallied courtesy of the weaker greenback. Emerging market currencies are collectively stronger, too. This is all coming because traders are more-or-less betting that the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle, and financial conditions will not be constricted by policy-maker intervention. Relatively cheap money will continue to flow, as yields remain depressed, and allow for the (sometimes wonton) risk-taking conditions that markets have grown used to in the past decade. Some risk being taken again, though somewhat nervously: The play into risk-assets makes everything sound quite rosy. There are caveats to this, however. And that relates to what’s been inferred about global growth from the Fed’s meeting this morning. Implicitly, at the very least, the Fed has acknowledged that growth in the US and world economy is all but certain to slow-down. It wasn’t said outright – a central banker would never want to be anything less than cautiously optimistic – but the tone of Fed Chair Powell at his presser suggests a Fed that is sufficiently concerned about the global economy that they will definitively reverse its policy “normalization” course. Positivity was maintained by the Fed about US economic conditions, outrightly. However, the market has read between the lines, and it doesn’t like what it sees. Interest rates are now expected to be on hold for this cycle: So: although swung around post release, the more important bond market is telling a clearer story. The yield on the US 10 Year Treasuries have tumbled nearly 8 points to 2.53 percent, and the yield on US 2 Year Treasuries has fallen 7 points to 2.39 per cent. More remarkably, the yield on Treasuries with 3, 5- and 7-year maturities have dropped over nine points, creating a yield curve with a very flat belly. Of most concern here is that all of these securities are trading just at, or well below, the Fed’s current effective overnight-cash-rate of 2.40 per cent. Traders are now pricing in a greater than 50 per cent chance the Fed will cut rates by early next year, on the basis of deteriorating economic conditions. It’s getting harder for the Fed to get the right balance: The tight rope is getting narrower. For market participants, as always: on one side of it sits the need for accommodative financial conditions, on the other the need for robust growth conditions. It’s the rudimentary in principle, though complicated in practice, interplay between the credit cycle and the business cycle. Out of this Fed meeting, the proverbial tight rope walker is nervously shifting her gaze down towards the economic growth outlook. Powell and his team have apparently not struck the necessary equilibrium in its approach to its policy and communications to the market. Yes (again), risk assets have rallied, but right now, not in such a way that suggests the bulls are significantly more confident in the investment environment being planted before them. Other stories also important, though not as much as the Fed: Some of this could be attributed to the overhang coming from some of the other significant economic stories yesterday. Sentiment has been dented by news that key EU figure Donald Tusk may demand that no Brexit extension is granted for the UK; it has also been liver-punched by a story suggesting US President Trump does not necessarily see a lifting of tariffs on China occurring in any US-Sino trade deal. Once more: it does appear that markets have seen the greatest gravitas in the Fed meeting, though. And traders’ nervousness is being betrayed by this: despite a dovish tact, corporate credit spreads have rallied, the VIX is off its multi-year lows, and US Break-evens are revealing greater inflation risk in the US economy. Australian markets to be defined by Fed and employment numbers: Fittingly, SPI Futures are suggesting the ASX200 will open somewhere between 5-and-10 points lower this morning. Speaking of markets and the growth outlook, not only will Australian trade be impacted by the fall-out from the Fed’s nervously dovish tilt, we also get some highly anticipated employment figures out this morning. The currency and rates markets will be what to watch for: the themes driving the ASX200 this week is the renewed push in iron ore prices, along with the rotation into yield-driven defensive sectors as Australian ACGB yields tumble. The RBA have hitched their hopes for the Australian economy on a tightening labour market and subsequent lift in wages growth and inflation. Watch therefore today for any major downside miss in employment numbers. Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
  2. 2 points
    this is really relevant to me, see 15:20 min onwards https://www.piworld.co.uk/2017/01/02/conkers-corner-edward-roskill-interview/ "trying to be really disciplined is very important" "trying to be distinguish between fundamentals and the stock price which can be completely different" 18:00 "prices can behave peculiarly" "price is an irrelevance" https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/18/eldorado-resorts-caesars-explore-merger-sources.html we wait.
  3. 1 point
    Comment replicated here as probably better placed here than Tech Support for Platform or App IG, Could you please flag markets that are not open to trade on the screen prior to Place deal, or other activities are performed. So if you have closed down one side of the market for what ever reason , the flag should make it obvious to a trader before doing any analysis or attempting to place a trade and get a THIS MARKET MAY NOT BE SOLD TO OPEN message. Many thanks again.
  4. 1 point
    @TrendFollower @andysinclair @JamesIG Thank you for your responses. I thought there might have been a way on the IG platform I had missed, but apparently not.
  5. 1 point
    @RJDemo and @andysinclair - I've passed your accounts on to be manually resolved whilst we look for this batch fix. Apologies but hopefully should be resolved for you soon. Thanks.
  6. 1 point
    It seems likely to me that what will actually happen here is that Mike Ashley will bid, because aside from anything else, the House of Fraser is not of critical size without combining with Debenhams and is losing money heavily. As Mr Ashley does not have access to enough luxury brands, so he is having to fill the House of Fraser stores with Sports Direct stock which is badly weakening the House of Fraser brand. He needs to combine Debenhams with the House of Fraser fairly urgently I would say, especially now that Debenhams has signed off the Li + Fung deal which promises a pipeline of decent quality items into its stores. Equally, I believe he will use a mixture of Sports Direct shares and cash to make such a bid, this being far cheaper for him than using just his own cash or the supposed £1billion warchest he has accrued. It will also allow him to unify the purchase behind one corporate entity and use any tax advantages to the full. It seems to me that this possibility is being ignored by many writers, yet it seems very likely. The issue of the £220m bondholders is to a degree a red herring in this. It is akin to the entry price to being involved in this bid, as the bond holders have to be paid back in full if he makes a bid, equally if an administration event happens, the bondholders are the first to become indemnified and will simply swap their £220m for equity in the new entity via the administrator. That means the bondholders have to be bought out automatically as a part of the cost of buying Debenhams. Why should Mike Ashely want then to allow Debenhams to go into administration? He would totally lose his equity stake and have to bid for the parts of the group he wants from the administrator in a queue with any other bidders, without preference. That may then be more costly to him that just paying the equity cost now of a bid – say £150m plus the bonds = £370m = bargain price. The banking facility can then be renegotiated afterwards or combined with Sports Directs facility, probably with the same banks, but at a fraction of the cost! So then it is down to the cost of the equity – a takeover at these share price levels would be very cheap – probably around £100m – 150m plus £220m for the bonds, and plus say another £100m to stabilise Debenhams would mean that the total purchase would cost less than half Mike Ashley’s £1bn warchest. I’d say that would be a bargain for him for such an asset.
  7. 1 point
    APAC report not showing up today, needs admin reset.
  8. 1 point
    Very good short video on supply and demand as a leading indicator, support and resistance, and the difference between the two. https://www.tradeciety.com/supply-demand-leading/?mc_cid=7800da6988&mc_eid=5e22afae3f
  9. 1 point
    Is the FTSE showing an inverted h&s pattern on the weekly. If it is and it's broken the neck line of that, what is the likely target?
  10. 1 point
    @Nelsy-Boy & @Caseynotes, I agree with the self fulfilling prophesy part. At times traders can conduct over analysis and try and be too clever and technical. If those traders who conducts lots of technical analysis cannot demonstrate a superior level of profit performance over someone who does not conduct as much technical analysis over the same period of time then what is the point? Excellent traders are those who consistently make more profits over a year than losses. The bigger the gap between the profits they make and their losses the better. Every trader will make losses. One must learn to embrace them and keep them as low as possible and to a minimum but we all will make them. It is not about having more successful trades than losing trades. What is the point of being successful on 80% of your trades if the losses are greater than your profits because of the 20% of the losing trades where the losses were so big they were greater than your profits on the 80% of the trades.
  11. 1 point
    @RedSwift, Market makers can create scenarios which can be perceived by traders as demand for a share and they can move the price (bid/ask) to make it look like a price gain but in realty it is not. I see this on the U.K. AIM and NEX markets a lot. A lot of shares on these markets are illiquid and the market markets try and look to create price movements which look like there is demand for the shares. In reality there are liquidity issues which are being camouflaged.
  12. 1 point
    I have been keeping close tabs on Sugar and it seems to be enjoying a brief upward turn. There are no real fundamental reasons why Sugar should go above and stay above $360 apart from 'Speculation'. There is a supply glut in Asia. The one thing in favour of positive Sugar prices is that countries are trying to force the price upwards. This may see some upward price movement beyond $360 but I really do not know if that will happen. I am still at monitoring the price action stage at this moment. I shall keep those who are interested within the IG Community updated via this thread.
  13. 1 point
    @RedSwift, no, it's solely down to what people are willing to buy at and sell at, the broker is there to match the two together. If the broker can't find a match then there is no trade (and no addition to the volume figure).
  14. 1 point
    FX is 24 hr, spreads don't change on a time basis but will change for periods of high market volatility so there is the minimum spread and the average spread.
  15. 1 point
    Hi @RedSwift, you definitely want to check an economic calendar every morning to see what data is due to be released that day, note down anything connected to the markets you trade and the region you are in as it's going to be relevant as is any important data concerning the US economy. If you are looking at corporate stocks it's a good idea to keep track of earnings releases which can be the catalyst for big moves, especially when the chart is lined up for a break at the same time. For large companies these guys are a good follow on twitter and give notice for the week ahead and daily for before open and after close data releases. For everything else check the weekly COT report to see where the large speculators are heading. https://cotbase.com/ The future is never written in stone but praemonitus, praemunitus.
  16. 1 point
    Hi @Masonmmunch, the share dealing platform will be updated to html same as the sb platform with all the bells and whistles but it's taking a long time and there is still no date for roll out yet.
  17. 1 point
    @Bradipo, an on going problem with flash is that it keeps getting reset on browser updates. I'm not familiar with your browser set up but you need to go to site permissions (padlock icon on page url in chrome) and make sure flash and java are set to 'allow' (for IG pages) and not 'ask'.
  18. 1 point
    End of 2018 and time to take stock (Short HaHa!). I have been waiting for a big stocks Short opportunity for several years and finally it looks like it is arriving. It could be the biggest Shorting opportunity any of us have ever seen. Some have pointed to Bitcoin but that was not a credible opportunity in my opinion, unless you are a pure gambler. Patience is certainly a virtue with this trading game if you are seeking to catch a big move and it has been on FX too. Having missed the first bearish wave down from April 2018, I have been watching for the probable retrace to get Short for the big wave 3 down. I am also interested in swing trading the retrace and have been attempting to do this for the last few months of this year but each time a possible rally presented itself it broke down to set another lower low. It is very hard to catch a wave 1 termination but another possible turning point is currently presenting itself. Will this be the one? And what might happen next? I regularly relook at my entire assessment to see if anything has changed materially and now seems like a good time to relook at FX. The monthly chart shows the long term perspective and the potential for a long Bearish move, once the retrace rally is out of the way. The Euro had been on a charge vs USD since its inception in 2002 (well the paper currency launch) but peaked in 2008 during the Credit Crunch and since then, as with most currencies, has been steadily losing value against USD. This also comes during a period of increasing turmoil in the EU (in particular for the Euro zone), which has been well covered in other threads but in short the Euro zone has some insurmountable (in my opinion) structural problems including a disparity between the various country economies (the likes of Greece and Portugal urgently need to devalue and Italy and Spain have major issues), inability to operate a true central bank and a wide range of individual country credit rating (resulting in a lack of uniform debt cost). Add to that political turmoil that is unlikely to be resolved any time soon (not least the migrant issue) and the Euro could not only fall heavily but could actually unravel just as the previous iteration, the ERM, did. So from both a fundamentals and technical perspective I see the Bearish trend continuing in 2019. I fully expect the inception levels of sub $0.90 to be reached and quite possibly the theoretical all time lows of $0.63, if not oblivion. But what about that pesky retrace? Not much point in placing a short now unless you are willing to take a huge stop loss exposure, which I'm not. Looking at the Weekly chart you will notice a nice head & shoulders formation in 2017 that broke out through the neckline with a large gap, that crucially remains unclosed. I expect this to be closed in due course. The whole of the 2017 rally is enclosed by a consolidation Triangle formation, a likely Pennant/Flag that was broken to the downside in April. The move down since then is also enclosed in a Triangle that is now on the verge of a breakout into a rally. I also have a credible EWT 1-5 form for the wave 1 (blue) down and I expect the rally to be an A-B-C retrace, which would confirm the overall trend is still Bearish. I also have Positive Momentum Divergence (PMD) at the Nov wave 1 (blue) turn, which can also be seen clearly on the Daily chart. The wave 1 (blue) also turned on a strong weekly chart pin bar, which was coincidental with the Fib 50% off the 2008 high (see Monthly chart). Looking at the Daily chart then I can see that PMD at wave 1 (blue), which is looking strong. The move down to the turn is enclosed in a possible ending triangle that was broken and retested (support held) and then that support zone was tested again and again held and then put in a sharp rally followed by another retrace down, which put in a higher low. This kind of price action is typical of a consolidation phase prior to a strong wave 3 rally and now the market is poised over New Year at the crucial Weekly Chart Triangle upper line. A breakout through this line (which is a must to confirm the retrace) that is fast and long (signature of a wave 3), maybe even with a gap through the resistance, would tee up a run to a wave A of an A-B-C that could ultimately terminate with a retest of the breakout zone of the Pennant (circa 12,300) and the Fib 76/78% but we will have to see how the move progresses to assess the likely turning point back into the Bear. While the retrace may be lucrative it is always risky trading counter trend, especially if you do not deploy swing trading techniques, as trend trading often does not work, unless you get an early A-B and a long C trend. The bigger opportunity is clearly tracking this potential road map to spot the next Bearish phase. However as a swing trader I am more than happy to trade this and related FX pairs and am already Long from previous lows. My trading strategy is to hold those further down Longs for the termination of the A-B-C move and to add on key breakouts for a shorter term trade to the Wave A turn. I will not trade the Wave B but wait to see if I can spot the turn back into the final wave C move and pyramid this to the end of the whole retrace before reversing into the Bear move.
  19. 0 points
    I have just noticed this ETF available on IG's platform. As you can see the price performance was excellent from 2016 to 2018.
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