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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/10/19 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    CBD oil is apparently very good for joint pain, anxiety. But a single bottle is almost $100 I think. Said to be good for insomnia too. And they have 'vape' like products for cannabis. Lots of potential for a healthy market there ...
  2. 1 point
    Hi everyone, so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle. Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon) First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows. What do you think of this approach?
  3. 1 point
    Spread bet size calculator web page giving bet size in £/point for account size, % of account to risk (or money amount) and stop loss size. (see pic) https://www.earnforex.com/spread-bet-calculator/
  4. 1 point
    Interesting set of charts; Chris Kimble @KimbleCharting 1d Are "High Times" about to return to pot stocks? After large declines, these stocks are each testing support at each (1).
  5. 1 point
    you seem to set a good set of rules, but I have always found forks a little subjective, even personal. Different people see different ones. Here's mine
  6. 1 point
    just to add to bigdeal's reply SBs can be either cash/daily funded bet or futures/forward which have a separate chart accessed from the dropdown box next to the chart title. for cash/dfb there is no expiry but you paid an overnight interest fee, this charge does not apply to futures/forwards which have a larger spread instead. see pic.
  7. 1 point
    This looks like playing out, parliament has voted to sit on Saturday to vote on whether to accept the deal or not, Junker has just confirmed there can be no extension so the vote on Saturday can only be a vote for this deal or a no-deal brexit on the 31st Oct. The 10 DUP votes should not be needed for a win. The deal gets us out of the customs union but stay in a partial regulation union.
  8. 1 point
    the problem is the constant stream of contradictory news, it's like a drawn out central bank chair presser with price reversing at the end of every sentence. so you get a chart with lots of spikes and candles with long tails both directions, that's hard to keep up with and takes a lot of concentration as there is no confidence in the longer term direction.
  9. 1 point
    Really? I would follow the charts ... everyone (including Reuters, the IC trader) was saying the pound can't possibly keep going higher, then it will go higher because old shorts were being unwound, and now it can't possibly go higher, meanwhile it keeps going higher and higher ... follow the charts, ditch the preconceived notions about what the market 'should' be doing, right?
  10. 1 point
    Anyone traded this beast today? Could've risked £200 and made £600. And you don't even need huge margin. Sounds like something @nit2wynit would love to trade Although I don't know how large the spread was this morning between 8.00 and 8.30. Perfect entry would've been after the bounce off pivot and then break of VWAP at 17.0. Then exit around 25.0 or so
  11. 1 point
    yes, brexit schmexit, the usual discourtesy towards other's opinions, the gold bar is the one you've been holding since the beginning of 2016 which is how long I've been laughing for. anyway.
  12. 1 point
    That's always your view, has been for years, but the market just keeps ignoring you 😆
  13. 1 point
    clearly, it's the "Deal or No Deal" Line
  14. 1 point
    @dmedin, 👍 I think you are making a wise choice looking at 'daily' charts and cutting down the amount you trade. I think based on what you have shared you are right to do so. I think you should have done this a lot earlier. Now this should reduce your losses. What you need to do is now be more selective with the trade. I would suggest only trading the asset which is trending strongly based on indicators you think if align will give you a better / greater chance of success. Of course no guarantee but you want to tilt the odds in your favour as much as possible. If you can find certain indicators if when they occur on one of the stronger trending assets then this will help to increase your probability. Again no guarantees but I think this will certainly help you. See how it goes. Just be more strict in choosing the trades. Also have a think about how much capital you are going to allocate on the trades and how much you are going to risk. This will depend on your risk tolerance but you need to be clear on this. Also think about entry and exit rules. Most important have patience and you will require discipline. 👏 I think you have made the right choice and it was a long time coming but you got there in the end. Now your real journey begins.
  15. 1 point
    Beyond meat IPO lock up period ends 29th Oct should be of interest. 9,625,000 at offer price of 25 USD coming back online. spicy.
  16. 1 point
    No, it isn't. Whilst it's known that trading on the worlds global financial markets can be tough and has risks, I must reassure you that your thoughts on our business model is incorrect. This has been discussed a number of times, however I'll copy and paste for the sake of the convenience. Our business model is based on providing individuals with the opportunity to trade the world’s financial markets, in exchange for fair and proportionate transaction fees. However, we do not typically benefit from trading losses that an unsuccessful client may experience. We do not have a view on the direction of the market, and it is entirely in our interest for your trade to be executed correctly based on the instructions you provided. There is absolutely no benefit what-so-ever to IG having a stock available on the platform which you can't trade on. As we earn revenue from you trading, we want you to trade, not lose. You can read more about that here, https://www.ig.com/uk/how-does-ig-make-money or watch a video (which we're looking to update) here: As a financially regulated company which is listed on the LSE, this methodology is supported by our quarterly and annual results, and our latest Investors Relation presentation which may be of interest. If you'd like to discuss this in more detail, I'd suggest you give us a call.
  17. 1 point
    I am going to take this opportunity to start a new post on 'Trend Following'. I am going to try to keep it as simple as possible for any new investors / traders who may be interested in trend following principles and adopting them within their trading / investing strategy. Even existing or experienced traders / investors may find this useful. If the more experienced traders / investors would like to enrich this thread then I would encourage them to do so, thus enhancing the overall discussion on trend following. I will start off by stating, "Failing to plan is a plan to fail." So always make sure you have a trading / investment plan that you can both execute and using discipline stick to. Have strict rules that you can follow. This is crucial as without a clear plan with rules one simply cannot trade effectively using trend following principles. One must understand that trend following has its flaws and it simply cannot predict future market movements. You will make losses. The key is to ensure that your profits cover your losses even if that means that out of ten trades you profit on three and make losses on seven. That is fine as long as the profit on the three winning trades is greater than the losses on the seven losing trades. Accepting this may mean a total change in mindset which may prove to be difficult for some. This is where an individual's personality comes in. One must assess which markets it is going to trade and have a system in place to help identify trends both upwards and downwards. Trend following aims to capture the middle of the trend so you never get in at the bottom or sell at the top. Volatility must be embraced and seen as an opportunity. Reacting to market trends as they happen is key. For those who are familiar with my posts then you will see that demonstrated on commodities such as Orange Juice, Cotton ,Wheat, Lumber, etc. No one can predict the future but using trend following principles based on historical and current price behaviour one can make assumptions. These assumptions can only be tested and presented as evidence based on the price action. It is ok to be wrong and one must not be scared or worried about what others may think. I am sure I have made many incorrect assumptions based on historical and current price action in the past and I am sure I will continue to do so. Making assumptions and then testing those assumptions is a key part of learning and gaining valuable experience. One can learn a lot more from their losses than they can from their winners. This can assist in coming up with sound risk management principles within the trading / investing plan. Be ruthless and trade both long and short depending on price movements. For those that are familiar with my posts will appreciate that I am an advocate of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. I have a long term long position in Bitcoin and Ether using XBT Provider One products and opened a long position when Bitcoin was around $2000.00. That is a long term trade. Now using spread betting on IG's platform I recently shorted Bitcoin even though at the same time I had the long position. The price action for Bitcoin merited a short position which using basic technical analysis one could not argue against. The trend had reversed to short. Now some of you may be wondering why I did not close my XBT Bitcoin trade. I am human and though one must try and eliminate emotion from the trade my flaw is that I believe in the long term story of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. This is only a flaw if they all come crashing down but I cannot predict the future so I simply do not know. Due to my convictions and beliefs which could be wrong all I can do is ensure that if any shorting opportunities come on Cryptocurrencies then I take them as I have two long positions in Bitcoin and Ether. This is where IG's Spread Betting platform works really well for me. It allows me to short both Bitcoin and Ether with leverage. Trends can change very quickly and this is where risk management comes in. One must have entry and exit rules which they stick to. It is fine to adapt these rules over time as experience may dictate a change in entry and exit points. Something I always think about when placing a trade is, 'Knowing your exit price before you enter the trade'. Stop losses and proper use of leverage are fundamental. One must let their winners run and not take profits too early. Only when there are indicators of a trend reversal must one exit and this should be done by the stop loss let. TrendFollower Tip: Trailing Stop Losses are great on winning positions so if you are not using them then you may want to consider them. I have kept this opening post very basic and simple. The detail will follow depending on the engagement this thread receives. I am out of the country from 31.07.18 to 26.08.18 so I am not available but on my return normal service will resume!
  18. 1 point
    Thanks James, that does explain why i can find no corresponding charts. Appreciated
  19. 1 point
    yes, for the mt4 platform on the mql5.com web site but you should consider volume profile over market profile. Both are similar in that they look at levels traded so provide dynamic intraday support and resistance levels but MP shows time spent at levels whereas VP shows volume traded levels. MP was more relevant when markets opened and closed but now brokers cover 24 hr VP seems to be more popular. VP on left MP on right;
  20. 1 point
    Jesse Livermore’s Equity curve:
  21. 1 point
    very useful and shows whats available via subscription services over and above your average broker platform. Can always go down the mt4 route where there are all sorts of interesting toys though not usually as professionally presented as this one in the vid.
  22. 1 point
    Brian Watt short vid on the difference between bid/ask volume and Delta volume showing recent ES buying (S&P 500 E-mini Futures).
  23. 1 point
    Maybe empty your account and don't make a deposit until its fixed - 😁
  24. 1 point
    While waiting for what will probably a significant US opening today, in terms of the direction of both stocks and precious metals and maybe also oil, here is something interesting from a Real Vision interview aired this morning with Michael Kantrowitz, CFA, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro. Bear in mind that these guys have a strategy that is essentially buy the dips, just in a longer term cyclical context, so they are not permabears. Their analytical system has thrown up the attached checklist of events that occur in every cycle since the 1950s. Judge for yourselves but my takeaway is that IF the ISM data deteriorates further AND jobs and GDP data begins to follow then that's the ball game. This is a specific statement made by Michael in the interview as a scenario that would change their view from buy the dips to more bullish. In any case they are overweight defensives as in their view this is the right play whether this is a correction or a recession.
  25. 1 point
    A bit off topic but very worrying just the same. https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
  26. 1 point
    Thank you TrendFollower, very cool!