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  1. 10 points
    @dmedin, In all of the humour added by @Caseynotes there is a very important point. A point that must be understood. First of all, spread betting is merely a vehicle to use to get to a destination. There are other vehicles available and it is your personal choice which vehicle you choose. For example if I want to invest in a company for the long term then I use a different broker to IG. If I want to trade a trend either 'long' or 'short' then I use IG's Spread Betting account. Why do I use Spread Betting? Well the two main reasons are the use of leverage and the other is that profits are free from Capital Gains Tax making it a tax efficient way of trading. Now the two reasons I have highlighted are totally irrelevant if you are either a bad trader or a good trader using a bad trading strategy when using Spread Betting. I will try and identify strong trends to trade using Spread Betting. Trading with the trend is crucial on Spread Betting. The stronger the trend the better. So it is not just about spotting a trend. 'Trend Strength', 'Momentum' and other indicators have to align to try and give you the best chance of a profitable trade. The amount of traders I have come across on just this IG Community alone that do not have the following is staggering: Trading Plan Trading Strategy Trading System Now without the above the odds are going to be against you and the probability of success diminishes. Also it is not just above having the three points above but they must be effective and efficient in trading the markets. Spread Betting is not gambling. It is merely a trading platform. Gambling is using trade capital to trade without an effective trading plan, without an effective trading strategy and without an effective trading system. It is the individual that gambles not IG's Spread Betting platform. An ineffective trader could invest thousands of pounds on a share in the hope that it recovers or goes up. If the share price continues falling and that trader loses thousands of pounds then it is the trader who is the gambler and it does not matter if they used a traditional share broker, invested via an ETF, bought a mutual fund or traded using a CFD or Spread Betting account. It is the actions of the trader that is the issue and at fault. Once you have a defined trading plan, a clear trading strategy which can be executed and a trading system capable of delivering the objectives of the trading plan then you will decide which platform or structure to use for your trading / investing. So the platform that you use will be dependant on your trading plan, trading strategy and trading system. Now guess what? If you have no trading plan, trading strategy and trading system then how can you pick the most effective trading platform to use? How can you come to the decision that a Spread Betting account is better than a traditional Share Broking account? How can you determine that CFD is better than a Spread Betting account? @Caseynotes, put the point across in a lovely humorous way and I have tried to put the point across in a more serious way and hopefully both will resonate with most types of readers here on IG Community.
  2. 8 points
    Indeed I have been sat here for a good many tears, I mean years. Did I get rich quick, no. I do treat it as a business though, a buying and selling business. So like all careers there is a lot of theory to be grounded in plus a lot of practical to get experience in. There is probably a whole years worth of course work in just learning how to spot and avoid the traps. I picked out an old Tom Dante quote which sums it up rather well, see below.
  3. 7 points
    I don't know what expectations you had when you started David, mine were to make a lot of money and retire. That didn't happen. After a while I stopped trading, took a step back and looked at what was happening. I had none of the stuff mentioned above which are needed for success. What I did have were lots of trading websites, discussion forums, tips websites, news feeds and so on. A confusion of noise with no structure and no plan. If you decided to open a business you would have a business plan. You would probably open a business that you knew something about and had lots of experience in, or could hire people to fill the gaps. You would know how much things cost, how much you could charge, and what the likely market would be. You would do a lot more than that and still might fail for any number of reasons. Spread betting, or any other form of trading is a business. You need to know what you are doing, you need to do it consistently and you need to keep monitoring your performance. To make money you need an 'edge' - which is simply a strategy which over the long term gives you more in wins than losses. It doesn't really matter what that edge is, just that you have it and trade it consistently. You do not need, and should avoid, trading on anyone elses advice. As I write I have a long position on Gold. I could explain why and someone might read this tomorrow, think it sounds reasonable and decide to buy too. I mogt have sold by then and gone short. My advice would be worthless. If you want to make money here's how. Open a demo account, with a similar amount of funding to what you would have in a real account. Review what you already know about trading strategies and pick one that you think you understand. Research this and make sure that you know all of the details. Does it apply to all markets? Does it suit short term or long term trading? Why do you think that it would give you an edge? Write the whole plan down - preferably with a checklist of all conditions that need to be in place before you take a trade. Start trading it with the demo account. Keep doing that for months if you need to until you always stick to your plan. Review the results. Did you stick to the plan? Did you make enough demo profit for it to be worth your while? Keep going with this until you are sure, then start with a small trading account and see if you can still stick to the plan, and make money. As you succeed you can start increasing trade size or adding other strategies but slowly. Remember that the reason for doing this is to make money. If you can increase the value of your trading account by 5% in a year you are doing better than most savings accounts. 3% in a month doubles it in 2 years. Big wins are for adrenalin junkies. Steady consistent wins are for millionaires. Final thought: Spread betting is the hardest 'easy money' you will ever make. Michael
  4. 5 points
    I would suggest EURUSD @eloronz for the following reasons: It is the largest FX pair market by volume and value and therefore the most stable, least prone to flash moves, which are a killer for new traders (and old I guess but old hands are more aware of this phenomenon) GBPUSD can be a bit spiky from a technical perspective, often spikes through a support/resistance zone before conforming, which makes stop placement more challenging USDJPY is often impacted by flight to safety Yen buying With EURUSD you are effectively trading, it is a better proxy than the USD basket (DX) EURUSD may be impacted by Brexit nonsense short term but is less prone to spikes around this than GBPUSD I would steer clear of non USD pairs for now, it is easier to focus on the USD impact EURUSD conforms well to charting and other technical analysis
  5. 5 points
    Ha ha, yes, exactly the same thing happened to me. I started a 4 year university course but realised I knew it all after the first year so I took the final exam and unbelievably I didn't pass. Clearly someone was to blame for this (other than me obviously) so I cast my eyes around and of course it must have been the college's fault. I mean all you have to do is take some indicators and chuck them on a chart and then pick out some pretty patterns right? I knew this would be easy for me as I'm good at spotting patterns. Clearly the fact that this approach failed meant the whole thing must be rigged. So next I scoured the internet looking for someone to tell me what to do and would you believe it but that didn't work either. The whole internet is telling me to do this or do that but when I applied these tips and tricks to the stocks I had carefully selected by chucking darts a stock page pinned to the wall nothing worked! I didn't realise I was competing in a two way auction, I thought I was just gambling like I do in Vegas where if the action is really hot and the big guys are throwing lots of money around and the spread is getting bigger and bigger then that is exactly the right time to jump in, boy was I suckered. It's not fair really as all I wanted, all I was trying to do, was to get rich quick, a very reasonable and quite simple goal really. The fact that this did not happen has made me sad and this has affected my relationships and it's all due to nothing less than completely unwarranted victimisation by the system I was trying to beat.
  6. 4 points
    Don't fall for it. Don't try and catch a falling knife. Manage your risk - use stops and guaranteed stops for the love of god if you're looking to hold stocks over night or ANYTHING over the weekend. If you're in to intraday trading think about options (my thing of late - check post history if you want) which manage risk when buying and stop you chasing losses. Get those alerts and notifications set up on your phone. Diversify a portfolio with some defensive stuff as well. Read read read read read the news people. Take a step back. Think about it. Actively say you're going to cut the emotion. ONLY THEN make your trade. Never risk more than you could lose. Any other things which would help? Lets share over this economic mardi gras...
  7. 4 points
    Thanks for the responses guys. As I phoned them to discuss the situation I had a voicemail from my account manager cancelling the trade as they suspected it was a mistake. Great service 👍
  8. 4 points
    they never really advertise it but think its worth noting
  9. 4 points
    To make your trading plan and trade strategy just answer these questions then move on to the testing section below. 1/ TRADING PLAN a) System What type of trader will I be? Swing, trend trader, trend follower, day trader, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, option trader, another, or a combination? What time frame will I be trading on? What will I be trading? Will I trade long or short or both? What has to happen to invalidate my trading system and make me look for flaws in my thinking? b) Psychology How big of a position size can I mentally and emotionally handle trading? Does my chosen trading method fit my personality for activity and risk tolerance? Do I actually enjoy trading? Do I have the mental strength to persevere until successful in trading? c) Risk How much of my trading capital will I risk per trade? How many losses in a row with this level of risk will lead to blowing up my trading account? How much will I lose at one time if all my open positions go against me at the same time? How correlated with each other are all your open positions and your potential trading vehicles that are on your watch list? 2/ TRADING STRATEGY What signals my entry? What will signal my exit? Where will the initial stop loss go? Do I use a trailing stop or a price target to lock in profits? What is the probability of my trade working out based on historical data? (see testing below). STRATEGY TESTING Ok, so you've discovered that a random approach doesn't work so you've found a strategy but you'll have no confidence to trade with real money until you've proved to yourself it actually works and that means testing and collecting data over a number of trades on demo first. The simplest data to collect are the win rate and the average risk/reward ratio of say 20 demo trades, you can then plot these onto a profitability graph to see if the strategy actually works before you risk real money. To collect the trade data you will need a simple spread sheet, try this one https://forums.babypips.com/t/free-excel-trading-journal/52738 Just fill in these 9 green boxes for excel to auto calc the Win rate and the average Risk/Reward Ratio. The date is by drop down box as is the asset, you can change the list of assets to whatever on the 'List Variables' tab. Use the Take Profit as the exit price even if it's a loss and leave the Exit Price column blank. Take the Win Rate and the Average RRR and plot them on the graph, anywhere above the red line is profitable, below the line is not. NB/ The journal works fine on windows excel but if opening it in Windows 10 OpenOffice you will get the 'invalid entry' pop up for columns G,H, and I, click on the letter to highlight (G, H & I) > data > validity and uncheck the 'show error message'. OpenOffice has also allocated the currency dropdown box for G, H & I so just ignore. So now you have a trading plan, that probably won't change much unless your circumstances change, and you also have a trading strategy to bolt onto the plan, you may have 2 or 3 of them, say a buy the dip strategy and a breakout strategy, and you also have a means to test that strategy on demo to gauge if it really does have a chance of working out on a live account. You may go through a number of strategies or make changes and retest again and again before finding something to test on a live account but at least you're not losing real money to find out if it really works or not because if it doesn't work on demo it won't work live. Best of Luck
  10. 4 points
    Hey Guys, I’m glad to announce I will be your new community point of contact. I'm taking over from @JamesIG. I have worked at IG for four years on our trading floor but have moved to manage the community. It will be great to hear any feedback you have for IG and I will happily push these idea to our developers. Do make sure if you need anything answered to @ me and I will respond as soon as possible. Thanks, Charlotte 😊
  11. 4 points
    Hihi, 30pt spread on weekend cable is fixed. We're looking at reducing if feasible / volatility permitting (for reference, narrowest indicative prices we saw from 1900 Sunday were 50 pts wide). How much of a factor in deciding whether to trade on the weekend is spread, what would you see as attractive to trade? Regarding true 24/7 trading - it's very difficult. We keep having to trade off between release time & platform up time - unfortunately trading hours aren't likely to increase soon. Only silver lining is that usually the 2200-0400 period is very quiet in terms of macro events. Open to any other feedback re. weekend markets. Thanks, Ludwik
  12. 4 points
    Here some of my thoughts on the importance of ATR (Average True Range) in Day Trading. Here's my thought process: In order to make profit you need volatility Volatility is the change in price of an asset over time As day traders we're interested in volatility per day To measure this I take the true range over one day, which is effectively the high of day minus the low of day and take the average of that over 200 periods If we assume we only take one position on a given day, in theory the max profit I get is when I buy exactly at low of day and sell exactly at high of day (or short-sell at high of day and cover at low of day) I need to subtract the spread from this max profit The margin factor requirements from IG define how much I actually can make in terms of £. Higher margin factor means lower qty to trade with, means lower profit, even if Average True Range is high I pulled some data today to find assets which fulfil requirements below low spread low margin requirements high average true range I looked into Indices, Crypto, Metals, Currencies, Commodities and Shares. I didn't fully automate the queries, so just pulled some snapshot data in the below. There might be some nuggets I missed, if you spot any, please let me know. (All profit calculations are based on a hypothetical £10k account - for larger accounts things may look differently because the margin factor rises in tiers for large accounts) Indices IG has a few indices at 5% margin factor, which outperform the rest. Only exception is Australia 200 which is hanging behind the China 300, while the latter has 10% margin factor. Most profitable ones to trade would be NASDAQ, NIKKEI and DAX. Interesting finding for me as currently trading the FTSE 100. Might give NASDAQ a try. Crypto Perform worse than Indices, because of 50% margin factor. ATR is much higher compared to Indices though, so if IG lowers the margin factor at any time in the future, these may become interesting. Metals Nickel and Spot Gold seem to do well. Gold because it only has 5% margin factor. Nickel because it has a large ATR of 2.8%. Currencies There are only few currency pairs which have a margin factor of 3.33% and a few more with 5%. Those perform better than the rest with 10%. ATR is relatively low here. Best ones I could find are GBP pairs like GBP/JPY, GBP/ZAR and GBP/CHF. Might be related to Brexit and high volatility in GBP at the moment? Commodities Surprisingly perform relatively well. Carbon Emissions, Natural Gas and US Crude at the top spots. 10% margin factor with relatively high ATR of around 3% I might give those a try. Shares Now shares are a little bit different to the rest, because they can be very volatile at times and don't move at all at other times. The best bet might be to find shares which were recently falling sharply aka trading well below 200 EMA. IG then increases the margin factor, but that might take some time. So if you find a stock which recently fell sharply and you can get in before IG increases margin factor you have insane profit % of 50%+ like Metro Bank and Kier Group in the below. Difficulty here is that the True Range has huge swings itself and you need to time it right to get on a big move. That's why I'm sticking with Indices at the moment. So, if we ignore shares for a moment, the top 3 assets to day trade according to this theory would be: 1) Carbon Emissions 2) US Tech 100 3) Natural Gas What do you think about this approach? Does it make any sense? Commodities seem to be doing well in this approach - has anyone in here experience trading them? (US Crude and Iron Ore would be place 4 and 5 - that makes 4 out of the overall top 5 being commodities and 1 Index)
  13. 4 points
    Hi there. In my first year I lost money; a genuine massacre. But I did not give-up, as I am quite resilient and kept going in trading and losing money again and again in the second and the third year. Until the forth year, where I reached the break-even. Now I am constantly and largely profitable, quarter after quarter, since last 4 years. I learnt how to trade the hard way. It is quite a common path, I discovered later reading the Market Wizards - a book I suggest you read - a collection of interviews done by Jack Schwager to a group of worldwide top traders. So funny to discover I was not alone having burnt my account at the beginning of my trading experience. The game is complex and lots of things influence your performance, including your emotions when you see the P&L in deep red. For that, it was very helpful to me to discover my limits: how much money I can afford to lose without losing my emotional control, sleeping hours or my temper - I also had moment where I was unpleasant with my family. But this is not acceptable, as you wrote. How much money can I lose without caring? 50 pounds? 500 pounds? 5000 pounds? 50000? It is all personal and you need to ask yourself what is your limit, as this should size your trade. At the end It is a game of probabilities and the more you trade the more you have opportunities to finalize your trading strategy/strategies, selecting only the ones with high probability of success. But nobody is right 100% and some of then will go wrong. Also for the suggestions given by Trade of the weeks: no discounts for anybody. But listen: the market is not fake and nobody is conspiring against you or anybody. Don't take this perspective to quit. There are retail traders (like me) that are constantly making profit. The break-even is an outstanding results, as you are - at this point - on the top quartile. Learning when not to trade also improved my performance a lot - as you cannot lose when all your positions are closed. As we speak, I am out of all markets and this is average 70% of the time. I take a trade only when all the homework is signalling high probability of success and from the past I scaled down from 20 trades a week to approx 2 or 3. Or sometimes zero. For every single trade I also write a lot, in my trading journal. Not just the pre-analysis, why I have selected the trade, the overall risk assessment and the related stop, the target price, all the multi-frame chart analysis . But also I record what happens during the trade: I write how the market is moving, the intensity of waves. And I also record my level of emotional reaction during the trade: from 1 to 10 I want to know if the trade was completely emotional agnostic or if I lost my sleeping. At the end, you need to be a Marine soldier studying every centimeter of the the battle field, to survive. Including you. Keep going with just 1 pip per trade - small money, but real trades. Don't give up. Improve your strategy, record your performance and try to understand when and why you have been successful or not. One day you will reach the profitability. Good luck.
  14. 4 points
    The ascendancy of Asia and in particular China is due to Western short term outlook whereas China takes a long term perspective. At the moment, China enjoys an unfair playing field. Why would they want to change this? As US China trade talks have been going on for decades, it is obvious that they are following a similar strategy to the Roman commander Scipio Africanus. Delay, delay until the time is right to strike. This is obvious what they are doing with their trade talks with the US. It is just impossible to have the current trade imbalance forever. Ceteris Paribus, China will become the technological superpower that could easily eclipse the US as they don't look at quarterly bottom lines but 10, 20 or even 100 years ahead. The western powers could easily be likened to Hannibal whereas the Chinese to Scipio. Hannibal was a brilliant tactician and had initial gains in Spain and in Italy. But the better strategist, Scipio ultimately prevailed leading to the total destruction of the Cartheginians. So perhaps the West should learn from history if it wants to remain the dominant economic world powers. I am not a fan of Trump but in his position vs China I support his stance. If unchecked, China will soon become the world's largest economy and all that entails like being able to outspend the US on defence. Will the world be a better place with China as the dominant super power? Think the Uighur community and the Tibetans might disagree that it would.
  15. 4 points
    It's taken me over a year of demo account trading to "perfect" a strategy that is proving profitable on a weekly basis... I'm in this for the long run, so really no rush to get into the markets, but I think I am just about ready to enter the "real world". One of the major lessons I learnt over the year (beyond what has already been mentioned above), PATIENCE! Literally sitting watching the ticker for the right time to enter the trade has been key, you may miss a trade or two, but in the long run its pays to see confirmation in trend before taking on the risk. Oh, and when I say a year, I mean literally every day of the week for a minimum of 2 hours (excluding videos on yourtube, audio books, reading about trading etc).
  16. 3 points
    Step 1 - buy daily puts at the start of the session 1% out the money (basically above the line on the platform) step 2 - profit *nb: vast over valuation of stocks required and exponential growth on nCoV deadly virus V useful discuss....
  17. 3 points
    There is absolutely no reason for such language. IG have excellent facilities and service both novice investor, and experienced trader, extremely well. We all have bad days and I wish you every success in the future.
  18. 3 points
    It would be great if we could right click on a price level on a chart and have the option to add alert. This would be much quicker than going into the alert panel and typing out the price level for the alert. 🙂
  19. 3 points
    JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY ONE BARK FOR SELL ???
  20. 3 points
    yes you could have done this as well your max risk would have been the 80 and the 50 = 130 quid total, and the NET profit would have been the 820 profit on the put, minus the 130, so NET PROFIT of 690 quid on a 130 quid risk. Not bad.
  21. 3 points
    Apple warns may miss quarterly guidance estimates due to virus impact starts a new pullback in the indices.
  22. 3 points
    Before market open - check current risk on or risk off ( on = indices and oil up, gold and bonds down. off = opposite ) expect continuation of current until new news affects the charts. - note times of up coming news events that day that could affect the markets if outside expectations. During I used to have squawk box years ago but found it a distraction and only told me earlier why the market had jumped or reversed, watching the charts is instant and someone on twitter will tell me why about 30 seconds later anyway (they still have a squawk box). Also on twitter is info that may come into play in the near future to keep an eye on. the news feed on the IG web based platform is good (IG pay Reuters well for it) but the IG mt4 news feed is not the same so I don't use. The more you get used to chart reading the easier it becomes but it does take time.
  23. 3 points
    I don't use anything else - have looked at other news sources and they don't seem worth the money 🙂 I sometimes look at Youtube videos from DailyFX, IG, Bloomberg and anything else that looks interesting. FT.com is said to be indispensable, but I'd rather just look at the charts!
  24. 3 points
    Can't add to the recently restarted US OIL thread now so start anew again. "Oil has been showing some signs of "hope" over past 24 hours. Given the fact oil and Chinese CSI 300 move in tandem, maybe the oil bounce could turn violent to the upside."
  25. 3 points
    The new share dealing platform is now live. Let me know what you think. You can find the help video by following the link below: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/investments/share-dealing-and-isas/how-do-i-use-the-share-dealing-platform
  26. 3 points
    Dow still has higher to go from here. I cut my losses drastically and hedging the remainder. Can't be too attached with wanting to be right 😄. Need to live longer to fight more battles to win the war. I expected Dow 30000+ later this year after a correction first but seems much sooner now which I am caught by surprise. The retracement will come when more trader's money like myself is taken first. @dmedin - trading against me may be a good strategy going forward 😂
  27. 3 points
    fair go, the failure to break through the blue rectangle was crucial for further downside. Now looking for resistance (sellers to step back in) and the most likely area is just before the red 29400 defending their initial stops.
  28. 3 points
    Don't know anything about Wheat @cheviot and can't get sufficient years of data on IG to get a purely bearing, however the chart from 2000ish they do have looks very similar to some agri crops I do track and trade (NY Sugar No.11 and Aribica Coffee). All of these soft commodities seem to have topped out during the commodity super-cycle top in 2011ish and since then have been in decline, whereas some of the harder commodities and precious metals have rallied harder, and in the case of PMs the general market bias is definitely bullish (not yet convinced!). In my Coffee and Sugar posts I have discussed the case for an impending massive cyclical bull market on the basis that we have been at or near the long term range bottom, although there was still room below. These markets took off, especially coffee BUT now it looks to me like Coffee is reversing and is more likely to put in lower lows on the long term trend before that Bull can take hold. I had reversed and shorted Coffee near the top of the recent rally but thought it was a bullish retrace rather than a reversal. Sugar is not there yet, although I am tactically Short now and waiting to see how it plays out. My concern is that Sugar could follow all the rest of the Softs (And indeed hards as well, currently) lower. Part of my thesis for a bull market in the making was technical and part fundamentals (As always). The Fundamentals part was that in a trading range market, once you reach the bottom (or top) the probability is massively in favour of a reversal into the opposite trend. Timing is hard as these markets can stay hugging the extremes for a long time. There are signs that in both Coffee and Sugar farmers are leaving the market (supply issue building). However, as @TrendFollowermentioned a while ago I believe, there was is a large stockpile of coffee about to be released on the market in Brazil. Sugar definitely has a supply problem though it seems. Another part was the idea doing the rounds of hyper inflation, driven by central banks getting what they have been seeking but not being able to control it. This is being called the "reflation trade" and unsurprisingly not everyone agrees with the hypothesis... The third factor was a falling USD, which ought to be good for commodities in theory (doesn't trump supply demand drivers though) but currently it is looking increasingly likely we will see DX at about 10000 (currently 9760ish). So all in all it seems that another period of commodity bearishness is in play (check also the thread on HG Copper). I remain convinced that a commodity bull market is going to happen and that softs will be the place to be when it does as I feel that industrial commodities will get hit by a recession (we may get that inflation trade first though, especially on Oil, which may then trigger the stocks crash and reflect the recessionary forces). All of these markets are related but food and water security is the single biggest issue the planet faces long term, far out weighing climate change (the climate gang are talking about the wrong things!). If the population is set to grow to somewhere between 9-13 billion by 2100 where is all the food and water going to come from? That's long term of course but if prices are depressed and farmers leave the industry then supply shortages at low prices are inevitable. Cue prices increases, and probably in a dramatic fashion. The question remains, when? I thought we might be there but this months price performance on Coffee makes me thing we are not yet.
  29. 3 points
    I can see what your saying but think you may be over estimating the sophistication of the average retail client. The SSI figures are for clients with open long or short positions so covering to get out of a long just removes the long and doesn't add to the short side. Any system that works for you is valid and I wouldn't knock it but your average retail punter has little experience and only lasts about 6 months, they always seems intent on basically trying to call tops and bottoms which they generally don't have the skill or experience to do. So they just keep reloading after each stop out til the account is gone. They would be far better concentrating on learning a simple trend following strategy to begin with. As I inferred earlier, every time there is a single red daily candle on the Dow or S&P everyone falls over themselves to declare 'this is it' the top is finally in, get short. After years and years of it it really starts to grate, particularly with so many noobs so keen to just jump straight in on any shout out.
  30. 3 points
    Visualisation in Excel of current market situation: Built using https://www.excelpricefeed.com
  31. 3 points
    This might be of some use to people or potentially just a bit of fun. Daily FX have a DNA FX quiz. Let me know what you think and what you get Start the quiz
  32. 3 points
    Potentially massive resistance zone has been reached on the Dow, the area between 28,000 - 28,500. If it breaks, then we should see the price move up towards 30,000, but if it holds and falls, then for me this could be the top. I think the remainder of November will give us the answer. Very critical period.
  33. 3 points
    Another record broken, as the Dow breaks 28k, another high goes higher. The Bulls are sure the only way is up. Regarding the China trade talks: are they really going so well? Wall street thinks so, but Shanghai is not as convinced. Maybe they sense the trouble in Honk Kong is not really over, or maybe they don't trust the eminent Mr Trump? Curious how there is little mention of the troubles in HK when discussing China trade talks, as if it were an inconvenient irrelevance. Or an elephant in the room? Or the next Tiananmen square? Curious indeed. As is the disregard of the ever widening Federal deficit hitting $134 billion last month. Mere peanuts? It would appear, it is the time of the Bull. But after the November figure fest and Xmas bump, winter will be upon us. The time of the bears? Or more unchecked expansion, profit and positivity? I am hedging my bets, even if the hedges are costing me margin. Either things will change or I miss out on my Xmas and years bonus by being overly cautious and sceptical.
  34. 3 points
    no it's not true and you should know as the question has been answered dozens of times.
  35. 3 points
    Could well provide a lot of volatility to the markets, half the Dow 30 are reporting this week. Big day tomorrow with Boeing, MS and Cat reporting. Weightings chart;
  36. 3 points
    Hi, I'm day-trading equities on the UK market for about a year and a quarter now. As I never made any consistent profits with that, I recently started focusing on the FTSE 100 index solely and would like to discuss my (and others) daily trades on the index in this tread. Hoping to find some likeminded traders also trading the FTSE 100 index. Shout, if you are one of them! Before I start in, briefly my trading strategy on the index: (Not sure if this is according to TrendFollowers definition a trading plan, a trading strategy or a trading system or a mixture of all?) - The goal is to make 20 points per day, so for example catching a move from 7340 to 7360 - Once I lose 20 points, I'm out for the day - The 20 points can be separated in as many trades as it takes. 2 points here, 5 points there, etc. - The quantity is static for the entire day and adjusts only as a function of the account equity (So it adjusts only at major equity breakthroughs). I'm currently trading a quantity of 1 for every £400 in equity in the account. - Both long and short trades are allowed - Trades are only opened within market hours (8.00am - 16.30pm), however positions can still run outside of market hours (no need to close an open position at 16.30) - 5 min chart is the main trading chart, however 1 min chart and daily chart are open to keep an eye on What do you think of this trading plan/strategy/system? My trades for the day (13/09/2019; Screenshot attached shows the trades in ProRealTime😞 - Red day, max loss hit 1st trade was a short. Loss Saw the bottom breakout at market open and then snap back up to opening level, with reversal at 7340 resistance. I entered on the way back down at 7355. Only been in profit zone for 1 minute, then it shot back up and broke 7340 resistance. Exit, not a good start. Down 6 points 2nd trade was short. Profit After trading above the 7340 resistance it just broke, it fell back below it, where I re-entered. This time I was able to ride the down-wave and set my profit at day-break-even. Success. Back at 0. 3rd trade was long. Profit Double bottom was forming at 7330 support. I entered on way back up at 7334. Lot of consolidation made me nervous and I exited early with a small profit. Better small profit than small loss I thought. Up 3 points 4th trade was a long. Loss Then the index shot up, broke the 7340 resistance and the VWAP at 7345. I entered at a mini flag pattern for a break over 7350 resistance. Reversed at 7350 resistance and I got out at break of 7340 support. Huge blow, another one and I'm out for the day. Down 9 points. 5th trade was a short. Loss and max-loss hit. Day over Consolidating below the 7340 support, now acting as resistance. Bottom break out. I enter short. Turns out to be a false breakout and reversal. Break of 7340 resistance and I exit at break of 7350 resistance. Done for the day. Down 19 points If you also trade the FTSE100 index, would love to hear your trades of the day! Take it easy Dan
  37. 3 points
    Cheers for the comments guys. In regards to @andysinclair question: You can pull a lot of data via the IG API, check API documentation here: https://labs.ig.com/rest-trading-api-reference You need to be prolific with VBA coding though. In this example I did the analysis half-manually - and only used a quick screener I set-up in PRT (ProRealTime) to pull the assets with the highest ATR compared to their price, to get a quick snapshot what we're up against here - then pulled spread, margin factor and true range from PRT charts/IG online platform. As the methodology in theory seems to make sense, next stage is to drill deeper. I'm planning to take the top 10 assets based on the above data-set and break them down by day of week and hour of day. Rationale behind this is to a) know the best asset to trade at a given time of day. Assumption is first hour after market open of the respective asset, but would like to confirm that. (e.g. FTSE 100 8-9am; NASDAQ 14.30-15.30; ...) b) being able to derive a daily target price based on the predicted true range on a given day. E.g today is Friday. Usually on Friday's the true range is smaller, so target would be smaller as well. Goal is to quantify this. I'll update this thread once I have more insights.
  38. 3 points
    yes, and probably takes us a step closer to the truth. How many can play the piano straight off the bat - 0%. But of all the people who started to learn how many kept going til they were at a professional standard - 1%? I don't think I ever heard of anyone who didn't blow their first trading account, sometimes their 2nd and 3rd as well. So some of those who are listed in the studies are not new traders at all, they were on their 2nd or 3rd or 4th attempt. That's why the advice is always to concentrate on just staying in the game, keep bet size as low as possible, give yourself time to learn the technicalities of trading and chart reading (rather than technical analysis). I've been repeating it on this forum constantly for well over 3 years but it's just not what new traders want to hear.
  39. 3 points
    Realised it might be better to screen-grab the entire trading window so that time and price can be seen on the axis.
  40. 3 points
    they should give everyone $10k of credit for screwing this up
  41. 3 points
  42. 3 points
    Recent attention to a looming recession has come about due yield spreads turning negative - see FRED. 2yr v 10yr seems to be preferred. It's been a pretty good indicator in the past and for those that say "it's different this time" - I doubt it. Average time from inversion to recession is quoted at 17 months. If that's right then it puts it late 2020 possibly early 21. We now have the longest bull market ever recorded and it's been driven by massive injections from the central bank needle. Drugs work until they don't. This fits with my motto "It doesn't matter.....until it does!" Remember this bull, rising since the GFC, has risen primarily on "bad" news ( i.e.the needles comin'). Any hint it will be withdrawn is met with the screaming abdabs. It's effectiveness is diminished after each fresh dose. You need more and more to achieve the desired effect. The US having the least smelling pile, now has rates at 2%. It's reckoned you need 3% -4% minimum to fight a recession and why, ideally, the Fed wants it higher. The firepower for easing in that situation isn't there. So more Quantative it is. Bull markets die on euphoria. It doesn't feel quite like that yet so I'd say we're in a wave 4 which will be exited on the next QE dose. The Fed will probably paint itself into a corner and be unable to fight the next recession with rate cuts when it comes. All boats (equity and bonds) rose on this last tide so expect the opposite by which time all thought of central banks being the great panacea will have evaporated.
  43. 3 points
    @TrendFollower Take a second look at your chart, we have strong resistance from the weekly chart with a double top on the H1 and the inter-day trend is weak. I think a re run of last week could be on the cards unless there is a rally later on today.
  44. 3 points
    Which means if you bought at any time other than those 87 days in the 10 year history, you'd be making money. BTC $50k within 18 months. Whoop whoop. Set your alerts.
  45. 3 points
    A key metric for Lumber is the monthly US building permits which have held up well over 2019, see below;
  46. 3 points
    @nit2wynit, here's a test you can do, open up the demo on one browser page then open up the live platform on another browser page. Set them both upside by side on ftse 1 second charts and watch; they move identically. But more importantly see how fast price changes and how frequent the gaps are, this is what you are trying to trade. Going back to the other thread where you posted the day's demo trade history. Just looking at the ftse trades you are using large size to make just a couple of points, that would be hard enough using a price ladder or a tick chart but if you are using a candle chart ... well, just look at the top picture again. Yes it's a lot easier on demo because size doesn't matter, but it does on a live chart, you are constantly aware that a fast 3 tick move against you on top of the spread puts you seriously offside in the space of a slit second, that makes you jumpy, no wonder you made yourself sick. You say you dropped down in size after losses but it was too late by then, once the confidence has been wreaked you need to stop and look back at the plan. Starting off on the live platform with large size with a strategy that needs very quick reactions just causes anxiety driven decisions and they don't tend to work out to well.
  47. 3 points
    I have found that if there's going to be a short squeeze, Tuesday is the most likely of days for it to happen. They're not called "Turnaround Tuesdays" for nothing
  48. 3 points
    I have released a project that will most likely be updated once or twice a day, The updates are self explanatory, A list of the most shorted stocks by Institutional Investors in the UK. Split up into how many institutional investors are short on a stock and by the volume and an amalgamated list of of most shorted stocks. https://github.com/tg12/most_shorted_stocks Again this is a series of my own projects. Not affiliated by IG and no guarantees etc. Feedback and comments welcome. Hope you enjoy it.
  49. 3 points
    @eloronz, all the charting platforms have there own handy chart pic taker which also removes any personal info. On the online platform you click 'options' (3 dots) then 'export chart' and a snap shot of the chart is sent to your download folder. See pic below.
  50. 3 points
    @Kodiak, That means you must look at your stop loss strategy. If you are trading a strong trend (volatility occurs in all trading assets) and if your stop loss is too tight and you keep on getting stopped out then the winner is the broker not you. If you have selected the correct trend which is strong and you are trading with the trend then you must have an effective stop loss strategy. You may want to revisit your risk management and have a look at position size, how much you are willing to risk on each trade based on your risk tolerance and try and come up with a more effective stop loss mechanism that eliminates this issue but at the same time does not increase your overall losses in your trading account. I must make it clear that it is about trading the strongest trends (which tend to be bubbles, hype, frenzy, speculation) etc. I love those types of trends and one must not fear them but embrace them. They are the trends that will make the biggest profits. The weaker the trend you trade the harder it is to have a sound stop loss strategy as volatility will stop you out. It is how your trading system deals with volatility which will be key.
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