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Showing content with the highest reputation since 04/07/19 in Posts

  1. 17 points
    Both through the web platform and ProRealTime... I cannot close out an open position on US500... IG are you going to refund any money lost because of your techincal error?
  2. 9 points
    One of my open positions have disappeared form the positions tab. I had a total of 5 open positions, the number beside the positions tab says 4. There are only 4 positions displayed. However the account totals row in the bottom is behaving like the last position is still there, the total positions sum takes into account all 5 open positions, likewise with the market value and profit/loss columns.
  3. 9 points
    Hi - facing a new issue on the platform. My charts are being wiped out and set to the same default every few minutes/seconds. No matter what I configure, within a few moments it defaults to a 5min candle stick with no other indicators - what is happening?
  4. 8 points
    I am Not able to see open positions. The customer hotline is also not working. What is the issue. Rectify ASAP.
  5. 7 points
    Don't fall for it. Don't try and catch a falling knife. Manage your risk - use stops and guaranteed stops for the love of god if you're looking to hold stocks over night or ANYTHING over the weekend. If you're in to intraday trading think about options (my thing of late - check post history if you want) which manage risk when buying and stop you chasing losses. Get those alerts and notifications set up on your phone. Diversify a portfolio with some defensive stuff as well. Read read read read read the news people. Take a step back. Think about it. Actively say you're going to cut the emotion. ONLY THEN make your trade. Never risk more than you could lose. Any other things which would help? Lets share over this economic mardi gras...
  6. 6 points
    Hi IG, Any plans to become a supported broker on Tradingview? I like the IG web platform but Tradingview stock screener is great and would be nice to trade from there. https://uk.tradingview.com/brokers/
  7. 6 points
    Righto, having used this web platform every day for the past year it decides to go mad. Really important trading day... every 30 seconds or so, every bleedin' drawing I've made, adjustment to chart, timeframe etc all resets back to a default 5min and deletes all drawings WHAT IS GOING ON!!
  8. 5 points
    To make your trading plan and trade strategy just answer these questions then move on to the testing section below. 1/ TRADING PLAN a) System What type of trader will I be? Swing, trend trader, trend follower, day trader, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, option trader, another, or a combination? What time frame will I be trading on? What will I be trading? Will I trade long or short or both? What has to happen to invalidate my trading system and make me look for flaws in my thinking? b) Psychology How big of a position size can I mentally and emotionally handle trading? Does my chosen trading method fit my personality for activity and risk tolerance? Do I actually enjoy trading? Do I have the mental strength to persevere until successful in trading? c) Risk How much of my trading capital will I risk per trade? How many losses in a row with this level of risk will lead to blowing up my trading account? How much will I lose at one time if all my open positions go against me at the same time? How correlated with each other are all your open positions and your potential trading vehicles that are on your watch list? 2/ TRADING STRATEGY What signals my entry? What will signal my exit? Where will the initial stop loss go? Do I use a trailing stop or a price target to lock in profits? What is the probability of my trade working out based on historical data? (see testing below). STRATEGY TESTING Ok, so you've discovered that a random approach doesn't work so you've found a strategy but you'll have no confidence to trade with real money until you've proved to yourself it actually works and that means testing and collecting data over a number of trades on demo first. The simplest data to collect are the win rate and the average risk/reward ratio of say 20 demo trades, you can then plot these onto a profitability graph to see if the strategy actually works before you risk real money. To collect the trade data you will need a simple spread sheet, try this one https://forums.babypips.com/t/free-excel-trading-journal/52738 Just fill in these 9 green boxes for excel to auto calc the Win rate and the average Risk/Reward Ratio. The date is by drop down box as is the asset, you can change the list of assets to whatever on the 'List Variables' tab. Use the Take Profit as the exit price even if it's a loss and leave the Exit Price column blank. Take the Win Rate and the Average RRR and plot them on the graph, anywhere above the red line is profitable, below the line is not. NB/ The journal works fine on windows excel but if opening it in Windows 10 OpenOffice you will get the 'invalid entry' pop up for columns G,H, and I, click on the letter to highlight (G, H & I) > data > validity and uncheck the 'show error message'. OpenOffice has also allocated the currency dropdown box for G, H & I so just ignore. So now you have a trading plan, that probably won't change much unless your circumstances change, and you also have a trading strategy to bolt onto the plan, you may have 2 or 3 of them, say a buy the dip strategy and a breakout strategy, and you also have a means to test that strategy on demo to gauge if it really does have a chance of working out on a live account. You may go through a number of strategies or make changes and retest again and again before finding something to test on a live account but at least you're not losing real money to find out if it really works or not because if it doesn't work on demo it won't work live. Best of Luck
  9. 5 points
    Web app and mobile apps are not working in the middle of the trading day! This is precious money making time but IG is making it going bankrupt time!
  10. 5 points
    The same thing happened to me after the scheduled maintenance today. I'm missing seven positions! The sum total seems correct. I've just shot an email to the helpdesk. I'm assuming they're going to be receiving a lot of these emails, and I sure hope they get this fixed pronto.
  11. 5 points
    Hi, wonder if could offer a bit of friendly advice? It seems to me that you could really do with introducing some urgent risk management into your trading. Monitoring large positions is essential, as is learning how to cut losses, not adding to positions that are already seriously in the red. Can highly recommend a book by Mark Douglas called 'The Disciplined Trader' - it's a great read and could help give you the mindset to protect your capital in future and avoid these kinds of situations arising. IG will give margin calls as appropriate, but are under no obligation to notify you that your portfolio is being decimated as you put it. Really sorry that you're so badly under water...but learning to cut losses quickly is the best way to avoid serious losses (and significant overnight funding charges).
  12. 5 points
    I don't know what expectations you had when you started David, mine were to make a lot of money and retire. That didn't happen. After a while I stopped trading, took a step back and looked at what was happening. I had none of the stuff mentioned above which are needed for success. What I did have were lots of trading websites, discussion forums, tips websites, news feeds and so on. A confusion of noise with no structure and no plan. If you decided to open a business you would have a business plan. You would probably open a business that you knew something about and had lots of experience in, or could hire people to fill the gaps. You would know how much things cost, how much you could charge, and what the likely market would be. You would do a lot more than that and still might fail for any number of reasons. Spread betting, or any other form of trading is a business. You need to know what you are doing, you need to do it consistently and you need to keep monitoring your performance. To make money you need an 'edge' - which is simply a strategy which over the long term gives you more in wins than losses. It doesn't really matter what that edge is, just that you have it and trade it consistently. You do not need, and should avoid, trading on anyone elses advice. As I write I have a long position on Gold. I could explain why and someone might read this tomorrow, think it sounds reasonable and decide to buy too. I mogt have sold by then and gone short. My advice would be worthless. If you want to make money here's how. Open a demo account, with a similar amount of funding to what you would have in a real account. Review what you already know about trading strategies and pick one that you think you understand. Research this and make sure that you know all of the details. Does it apply to all markets? Does it suit short term or long term trading? Why do you think that it would give you an edge? Write the whole plan down - preferably with a checklist of all conditions that need to be in place before you take a trade. Start trading it with the demo account. Keep doing that for months if you need to until you always stick to your plan. Review the results. Did you stick to the plan? Did you make enough demo profit for it to be worth your while? Keep going with this until you are sure, then start with a small trading account and see if you can still stick to the plan, and make money. As you succeed you can start increasing trade size or adding other strategies but slowly. Remember that the reason for doing this is to make money. If you can increase the value of your trading account by 5% in a year you are doing better than most savings accounts. 3% in a month doubles it in 2 years. Big wins are for adrenalin junkies. Steady consistent wins are for millionaires. Final thought: Spread betting is the hardest 'easy money' you will ever make. Michael
  13. 4 points
    It really is unacceptable. I’ve been trading with IG for 4-5 years and experienced various outages and frustrations with the stability of the platform, typically at the most inconvenient of times. However, these outages in the last 24 hours are serious. Calling to deal doesn’t help when market volatile.
  14. 4 points
    Trading app is very unstable. Could not see my open position. Can't close my position. Same thing happen 12 hrs ago. Please rectify it asap. I need to close some position.....this is terrible. Will you bear if there are losses.
  15. 4 points
    Usually IG does refund if the error is 100% theirs but often you need to provide yourself Screenshot and video... which is a little ridiculous. I'm now using a Desktop recoding tool every single time I trade with IG because last time there was an outage I couldn't close some long position I had which then endup being all negative. I had luckily took a video with my phone as a proof otherwise theyr would have not refund anything.
  16. 4 points
    is there a reason I'm still getting charged commsion even though I'm making 3 trades a month?
  17. 4 points
    I queried this via IG support chat before opening my ISA. I was advised the custody fee would only be applied once for both Share Dealing and ISA and only then if a minimum of 3 trades were not made in the previous quarter (in either account or in a combination of the two). A dealing account with zero holdings would not incur a custody charge anyway, as it's a fee for holding custody of shares, rather than an account management or inactivity fee. In a similar way, 3 trades made in my dealing account in March entitled me to the £3 UK commission rate and free US dealing in my ISA account from the moment I opened it on 6 April. Hope that helps.
  18. 4 points
    Hi MAKTRADER6970, I puzzled by this as well. You're right this is not how options really work. I trade options all the time in the US and make money by selling calls on shares I own and selling puts on shares I want to buy. When you sell you should get the premium immediately the option is sold. J_Bernard appears to be correct. We're not buying and selling options just betting on the option prices. You can't use them sensibly or profitably, so I think we should not bother with them. It appears to me CFDs and spread betting is just that - gambling where the broker wins every time.
  19. 4 points
    Trading FX these are the sort of indicators you need, matching what is currently strong vs what is weak, not stuff on patterns and macd, rsi or whatever. The first pic is from Nov and out of date but the second is of yesterday, maybe I should include something like this in the daily dashboard? Vote a like for yes or a sad for don't bother.
  20. 4 points
    Thanks for the responses guys. As I phoned them to discuss the situation I had a voicemail from my account manager cancelling the trade as they suspected it was a mistake. Great service 👍
  21. 4 points
    The ability to have two separate instances of two different trading platforms in two different tabs of my browser. Right now if I navigate to the new share dealing platform in one tab, my spread betting account in the other tab automatically redirects to the new share dealing platform also. Totally unnecessary.
  22. 4 points
    they never really advertise it but think its worth noting
  23. 4 points
    Hey Guys, I’m glad to announce I will be your new community point of contact. I'm taking over from @JamesIG. I have worked at IG for four years on our trading floor but have moved to manage the community. It will be great to hear any feedback you have for IG and I will happily push these idea to our developers. Do make sure if you need anything answered to @ me and I will respond as soon as possible. Thanks, Charlotte 😊
  24. 4 points
    Hihi, 30pt spread on weekend cable is fixed. We're looking at reducing if feasible / volatility permitting (for reference, narrowest indicative prices we saw from 1900 Sunday were 50 pts wide). How much of a factor in deciding whether to trade on the weekend is spread, what would you see as attractive to trade? Regarding true 24/7 trading - it's very difficult. We keep having to trade off between release time & platform up time - unfortunately trading hours aren't likely to increase soon. Only silver lining is that usually the 2200-0400 period is very quiet in terms of macro events. Open to any other feedback re. weekend markets. Thanks, Ludwik
  25. 4 points
    Here some of my thoughts on the importance of ATR (Average True Range) in Day Trading. Here's my thought process: In order to make profit you need volatility Volatility is the change in price of an asset over time As day traders we're interested in volatility per day To measure this I take the true range over one day, which is effectively the high of day minus the low of day and take the average of that over 200 periods If we assume we only take one position on a given day, in theory the max profit I get is when I buy exactly at low of day and sell exactly at high of day (or short-sell at high of day and cover at low of day) I need to subtract the spread from this max profit The margin factor requirements from IG define how much I actually can make in terms of £. Higher margin factor means lower qty to trade with, means lower profit, even if Average True Range is high I pulled some data today to find assets which fulfil requirements below low spread low margin requirements high average true range I looked into Indices, Crypto, Metals, Currencies, Commodities and Shares. I didn't fully automate the queries, so just pulled some snapshot data in the below. There might be some nuggets I missed, if you spot any, please let me know. (All profit calculations are based on a hypothetical £10k account - for larger accounts things may look differently because the margin factor rises in tiers for large accounts) Indices IG has a few indices at 5% margin factor, which outperform the rest. Only exception is Australia 200 which is hanging behind the China 300, while the latter has 10% margin factor. Most profitable ones to trade would be NASDAQ, NIKKEI and DAX. Interesting finding for me as currently trading the FTSE 100. Might give NASDAQ a try. Crypto Perform worse than Indices, because of 50% margin factor. ATR is much higher compared to Indices though, so if IG lowers the margin factor at any time in the future, these may become interesting. Metals Nickel and Spot Gold seem to do well. Gold because it only has 5% margin factor. Nickel because it has a large ATR of 2.8%. Currencies There are only few currency pairs which have a margin factor of 3.33% and a few more with 5%. Those perform better than the rest with 10%. ATR is relatively low here. Best ones I could find are GBP pairs like GBP/JPY, GBP/ZAR and GBP/CHF. Might be related to Brexit and high volatility in GBP at the moment? Commodities Surprisingly perform relatively well. Carbon Emissions, Natural Gas and US Crude at the top spots. 10% margin factor with relatively high ATR of around 3% I might give those a try. Shares Now shares are a little bit different to the rest, because they can be very volatile at times and don't move at all at other times. The best bet might be to find shares which were recently falling sharply aka trading well below 200 EMA. IG then increases the margin factor, but that might take some time. So if you find a stock which recently fell sharply and you can get in before IG increases margin factor you have insane profit % of 50%+ like Metro Bank and Kier Group in the below. Difficulty here is that the True Range has huge swings itself and you need to time it right to get on a big move. That's why I'm sticking with Indices at the moment. So, if we ignore shares for a moment, the top 3 assets to day trade according to this theory would be: 1) Carbon Emissions 2) US Tech 100 3) Natural Gas What do you think about this approach? Does it make any sense? Commodities seem to be doing well in this approach - has anyone in here experience trading them? (US Crude and Iron Ore would be place 4 and 5 - that makes 4 out of the overall top 5 being commodities and 1 Index)
  26. 4 points
    Hi there. In my first year I lost money; a genuine massacre. But I did not give-up, as I am quite resilient and kept going in trading and losing money again and again in the second and the third year. Until the forth year, where I reached the break-even. Now I am constantly and largely profitable, quarter after quarter, since last 4 years. I learnt how to trade the hard way. It is quite a common path, I discovered later reading the Market Wizards - a book I suggest you read - a collection of interviews done by Jack Schwager to a group of worldwide top traders. So funny to discover I was not alone having burnt my account at the beginning of my trading experience. The game is complex and lots of things influence your performance, including your emotions when you see the P&L in deep red. For that, it was very helpful to me to discover my limits: how much money I can afford to lose without losing my emotional control, sleeping hours or my temper - I also had moment where I was unpleasant with my family. But this is not acceptable, as you wrote. How much money can I lose without caring? 50 pounds? 500 pounds? 5000 pounds? 50000? It is all personal and you need to ask yourself what is your limit, as this should size your trade. At the end It is a game of probabilities and the more you trade the more you have opportunities to finalize your trading strategy/strategies, selecting only the ones with high probability of success. But nobody is right 100% and some of then will go wrong. Also for the suggestions given by Trade of the weeks: no discounts for anybody. But listen: the market is not fake and nobody is conspiring against you or anybody. Don't take this perspective to quit. There are retail traders (like me) that are constantly making profit. The break-even is an outstanding results, as you are - at this point - on the top quartile. Learning when not to trade also improved my performance a lot - as you cannot lose when all your positions are closed. As we speak, I am out of all markets and this is average 70% of the time. I take a trade only when all the homework is signalling high probability of success and from the past I scaled down from 20 trades a week to approx 2 or 3. Or sometimes zero. For every single trade I also write a lot, in my trading journal. Not just the pre-analysis, why I have selected the trade, the overall risk assessment and the related stop, the target price, all the multi-frame chart analysis . But also I record what happens during the trade: I write how the market is moving, the intensity of waves. And I also record my level of emotional reaction during the trade: from 1 to 10 I want to know if the trade was completely emotional agnostic or if I lost my sleeping. At the end, you need to be a Marine soldier studying every centimeter of the the battle field, to survive. Including you. Keep going with just 1 pip per trade - small money, but real trades. Don't give up. Improve your strategy, record your performance and try to understand when and why you have been successful or not. One day you will reach the profitability. Good luck.
  27. 4 points
    Indeed I have been sat here for a good many tears, I mean years. Did I get rich quick, no. I do treat it as a business though, a buying and selling business. So like all careers there is a lot of theory to be grounded in plus a lot of practical to get experience in. There is probably a whole years worth of course work in just learning how to spot and avoid the traps. I picked out an old Tom Dante quote which sums it up rather well, see below.
  28. 3 points
    I've been actively trading for a while now and this is just a couple of gripes, comments and questions. Disappearing positions - quite often I'll have a trade on with the details on the chart (stops, limits etc) and it just disappears from the chart. I can see the position is still on from the positions tab but the chart is just blank. The only way to fix it is to log out and back in again (closing the browser) to make the open positions available on the charts again, very frustrating. Ghost trades - closing trades that then refuse to go away. Usually just comes back with a useless generic error message when trying to close the position. Sometimes they go away on their own, other times it's a browser reboot again. The positions are gone/closed, but they still show as active on the charts. Crypto spreads - getting the impression that crypto is only included as an asset so that IG can be 'cool and down with the kids'. Bitcoin spread of $40 while other platforms have a spread of $1 or less ? Absolutely useless, just use IG to monitor or use indicators, but trade it elsewhere for a fraction of the cost. Orders with trailing stops - not possible, why ?? Seems like a very basic function... Same with OCO orders, which I'm sure were available once but now removed. The whole point of having orders is to trade 'hands free' and not need to monitor charts constantly. But because you can't OCO then you need to monitor the charts constantly to delete unfilled orders... Margin on orders. Why do unfilled orders count as margin ? Say I have 5 orders on and as soon as the first order is filled I want to cancel the other 4, well I can't because I don't have enough margin to have 5 (unfilled) orders at once ! Why is margin counted on 'potential' positions that aren't even opened and may never get opened ?? Margin should be calculated on open, active trades only as they happen. 10pm stop hunt - Why does a very liquid forex pair with a 0.7 pip spread suddenly jump up to 15+ pips and jump around randomly for absolutely no reason ? It's not the underlying market causing it because it doesn't happen on your competitors platforms. Be honest IG, you're just stop hunting and it should be illegal, funny how it always happens the same time every night as well (before you start blaming the underlying). Minimum stop distance - Why ???? you know that stupid grey area that stops you from putting your stops wherever you want to ? You any idea what a pain it is having to put on opposing orders on every position just to use them as stops because you insist on this minimum distance thing ? If I want to have a stop one pip away, I should just be allowed to do it rather than having to put on an order one pip away instead. Using orders completely defeats whatever you're trying to achieve with this minimum distance thing, so why even have it ? 50% line - A lot of common systems have 50% crossover strategies, so would it really hurt to have the 50% line drawn as standard on indicators ? It's a pain having to drawn it on every indicator. A bit more flexibility on all indicators would be good, like being able to change 20/80 lines etc... Settings memory - very often doesn't remember anything. Have to keep switching on 'one click' for example, or alert sounds. Every chart, I switch off 'show HLOC'. Next day, have to do it again as it never remembers from one day to the next. Very annoying... Minimum size - Now that our betters in the EU have made it almost impossible for small traders to trade on margin, how about reducing the minimum size on something like Forex from $0.50 per point to £0.10 or even smaller ? To trade one single position on Forex needs hundreds and hundreds of margin at the very minimum, so virtually anyone who hasn't got £1000+ in the bank can't trade it. Especially with the ridiculous margin being calculated on unfilled orders (see above). 90% of trades lose money, so encourage people to trade ffs ! better to take a small amount off someone than none at all ? Instead you've chosen to freeze people out the market and make it impossible for them to open positions... seems like a kinda stupid business model you got there IG... Trailing stops size - Why does it have to be stupid restrictive numbers ? why can't I put a trailing stop on at 7 pips away and stepping at 2 pips or whatever value I chose ? Why does it have to be 12 pips minimum and only steps in 5, or whatever the random number generator has spit out for that particular asset ? Another very basic thing that doesn't have any rhyme or reason to it. It should be minimum distance 1, minimum step 1, for every asset !!! Countdown timer - been asked for a few times over the years, a simple clock at the top of the page showing the current time, so people can see when the next candle/bar is going to open. Or even a countdown timer next to the price line like a lot of other companies have. I have to sync my desk clock to the charts every day and use that, it would be nice if there was just a clock on the chart though... Disclaimer - I'm definitely a rubbish trader, one of the 83% or whatever it is now. I make my money from passive income on investments and only spread bet for fun with disposable income (and I've disposed of a lot of it with IG lol :-). But there is no way I would commit serious capital to this with all the problems listed above. I don't expect any offical response from IG on any of this, but would be interested to hear from other users if they have similar gripes / problems ?
  29. 3 points
    Logging in this morning, I found all my positions were missing. Looked again a few minutes ago and most were back, but there were still two missing off the list (UK shares). Whilst I don't doubt that the problem is related to weekly maintenance, and the missing items will be back by Monday, the number of these 'glitches' is somewhat concerning, and doesn't inspire great levels of confidence in their systems. I daresay, the current grand farce may also be contributing to these problems with staffing shortages.
  30. 3 points
    casynotes a helpful chap
  31. 3 points
    Problem with Charts. Defaulting to 5 min charts.
  32. 3 points
    Wow Guest, you're right, just checked out their real-time spreads, and they have tight spreads.. ..well, the same spreads as IG used to have. Now IG is 4-10 times more expensive on DAX, depending on what day you compare with. I'm going to create an account on Core Spreads now, and see how long it will take before I can move over there. I like IG's free ProRealTime platform, but I can move over to MT4 if push comes to shove! --- Caseynotes - Yes, I could trade the monthly time frame too, but I'd rather do that on Core Spreads with a 5th the spread:).. I think IG just lost me as a client. Regards, Molibar
  33. 3 points
    must admit it is getting a bit hot and sticky in here 😳
  34. 3 points
    yes you could have done this as well your max risk would have been the 80 and the 50 = 130 quid total, and the NET profit would have been the 820 profit on the put, minus the 130, so NET PROFIT of 690 quid on a 130 quid risk. Not bad.
  35. 3 points
    Hi, Logged in this morning and all my drawings/indicators etc are gone. The screen has reset to the 5 minute chart with no indicators or drawings. Is there a way to get them back? I put a lot of time into these. Thanks James
  36. 3 points
    As I've tried to point out often it looks like you were lured into thinking you could go into full time trading without a viable plan or tested strategy and learn on the fly. That may be because you were listening to people who are constantly giving out professional sounding advise but even after years of trying can't themselves make a living trading but instead rely on other income. On forums and on SM these ego driven guys are by far the majority, be careful who's advice you follow. Not necessarily a question of quitting but more a case of needing to rethink your whole approach.
  37. 3 points
    The new share dealing platform is now live. Let me know what you think. You can find the help video by following the link below: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/investments/share-dealing-and-isas/how-do-i-use-the-share-dealing-platform
  38. 3 points
    Dow still has higher to go from here. I cut my losses drastically and hedging the remainder. Can't be too attached with wanting to be right 😄. Need to live longer to fight more battles to win the war. I expected Dow 30000+ later this year after a correction first but seems much sooner now which I am caught by surprise. The retracement will come when more trader's money like myself is taken first. @dmedin - trading against me may be a good strategy going forward 😂
  39. 3 points
    Don't know anything about Wheat @cheviot and can't get sufficient years of data on IG to get a purely bearing, however the chart from 2000ish they do have looks very similar to some agri crops I do track and trade (NY Sugar No.11 and Aribica Coffee). All of these soft commodities seem to have topped out during the commodity super-cycle top in 2011ish and since then have been in decline, whereas some of the harder commodities and precious metals have rallied harder, and in the case of PMs the general market bias is definitely bullish (not yet convinced!). In my Coffee and Sugar posts I have discussed the case for an impending massive cyclical bull market on the basis that we have been at or near the long term range bottom, although there was still room below. These markets took off, especially coffee BUT now it looks to me like Coffee is reversing and is more likely to put in lower lows on the long term trend before that Bull can take hold. I had reversed and shorted Coffee near the top of the recent rally but thought it was a bullish retrace rather than a reversal. Sugar is not there yet, although I am tactically Short now and waiting to see how it plays out. My concern is that Sugar could follow all the rest of the Softs (And indeed hards as well, currently) lower. Part of my thesis for a bull market in the making was technical and part fundamentals (As always). The Fundamentals part was that in a trading range market, once you reach the bottom (or top) the probability is massively in favour of a reversal into the opposite trend. Timing is hard as these markets can stay hugging the extremes for a long time. There are signs that in both Coffee and Sugar farmers are leaving the market (supply issue building). However, as @TrendFollowermentioned a while ago I believe, there was is a large stockpile of coffee about to be released on the market in Brazil. Sugar definitely has a supply problem though it seems. Another part was the idea doing the rounds of hyper inflation, driven by central banks getting what they have been seeking but not being able to control it. This is being called the "reflation trade" and unsurprisingly not everyone agrees with the hypothesis... The third factor was a falling USD, which ought to be good for commodities in theory (doesn't trump supply demand drivers though) but currently it is looking increasingly likely we will see DX at about 10000 (currently 9760ish). So all in all it seems that another period of commodity bearishness is in play (check also the thread on HG Copper). I remain convinced that a commodity bull market is going to happen and that softs will be the place to be when it does as I feel that industrial commodities will get hit by a recession (we may get that inflation trade first though, especially on Oil, which may then trigger the stocks crash and reflect the recessionary forces). All of these markets are related but food and water security is the single biggest issue the planet faces long term, far out weighing climate change (the climate gang are talking about the wrong things!). If the population is set to grow to somewhere between 9-13 billion by 2100 where is all the food and water going to come from? That's long term of course but if prices are depressed and farmers leave the industry then supply shortages at low prices are inevitable. Cue prices increases, and probably in a dramatic fashion. The question remains, when? I thought we might be there but this months price performance on Coffee makes me thing we are not yet.
  40. 3 points
    It's the opposite, I don't think I'm cut out for day trading. I still would have been better off keeping a position open from Christmas, even now. I zoomed out to the day chart and the overall picture was so much clearer than when looking at the hourly. (Although you could argue that the up-and-down nature of the hourly was actually evidence of a correction taking place - so always best to start longer-term and 'zoom in' if you're so inclined.)
  41. 3 points
    Visualisation in Excel of current market situation: Built using https://www.excelpricefeed.com
  42. 3 points
    Another record broken, as the Dow breaks 28k, another high goes higher. The Bulls are sure the only way is up. Regarding the China trade talks: are they really going so well? Wall street thinks so, but Shanghai is not as convinced. Maybe they sense the trouble in Honk Kong is not really over, or maybe they don't trust the eminent Mr Trump? Curious how there is little mention of the troubles in HK when discussing China trade talks, as if it were an inconvenient irrelevance. Or an elephant in the room? Or the next Tiananmen square? Curious indeed. As is the disregard of the ever widening Federal deficit hitting $134 billion last month. Mere peanuts? It would appear, it is the time of the Bull. But after the November figure fest and Xmas bump, winter will be upon us. The time of the bears? Or more unchecked expansion, profit and positivity? I am hedging my bets, even if the hedges are costing me margin. Either things will change or I miss out on my Xmas and years bonus by being overly cautious and sceptical.
  43. 3 points
    just meaning that TA is based on historic values that may or may not have any bearing on today's market. For example new news is much more important than yesterday's chart values.
  44. 3 points
    no it's not true and you should know as the question has been answered dozens of times.
  45. 3 points
    I'm not really sure what the motivation for the question is here: are you looking for a justification (is there hope?) to continue or a reason not to? I can't offer an answer to the second part of your question, that is personal to each individual, but the answer to the first part yes it is true that unsuccessful traders wind up giving back their profits and then some, which is one key reason they are unsuccessful. The crux of the matter though, and this is why your motivation is important here, is why the answer is yes and what, if anything, you can do about it. There are many reasons why traders lose, all traders not just retail. The literature is literally littered (a little alteration to lighten the mood...) with stories of famous traders that had significant growing pains in the early days. It rather seem to me that the only sustainable way to learn how to be a trader is to lose; to learn the hard way, and to learn how to lose. There isn't a short cut to this, although research and book learning is important to start with. And demo only gets you so far because real trading come with an insane level of psychological factors (just look at the tenor of some of the posts on this forum...) So while it is vital to have a system or methodology worked out (and ignore the trolls on this because confidence is also important) it is also vital to learn how to lose, because losses are a crucial factor in learning to be successful and in catching a trade with minimised exposure, and even the very best take regular losses accordingly. The difference between the successful and those destined not to be are many-fold but a few key one that pertain to the first part of your question are as follows: Not reconsigning when a trend has come to an end and knowing when to get out to maximise profits. Related to the above, holding on to your bias because it has been successful in the past - markets move in waves and sometime they reverse trend and if you don't recognise this when it happens you wind up trading against the trend and giving up all the profits from the previous wave and maybe more as you get more desperate to claw back. Not scratching losers quickly when the market turns against your hypothesis AND being reluctant to crystalise a loss at all, thereby holding on in the vain hope than the market will turn back in your favour (it rarely does...). A lot of retail traders talk about needing just 51% winners but in fact you need far few than than that if you let your winners run and cut losses quickly - lose small, win big. Failed traders wind up doing the exact reverse such that sometime they actually do win more than the lose but wind up as net losers financially. Thinking that trading is logical. It isn't, it is emotional (greed and fear dominate the markets - otherwise known as sentiment). That said you need to be in control of your own emotions or you will get sucked into the greed/fear whip saw and get cut to shreds. If you are not composed you will make bad calls. Related to this is blaming everything and everyone else for your bad calls. The markets don't care about you, they don't even know you exist. Big bad professional traders are not out to get retail traders, they are too busy competing with each other. The system isn't rigged as such, although manipulation does occur but it does in every market, not just financial markets. Retail traders, especially those losing, tend to be too preoccupied with these phantom issues instead of focusing on their own method, psychology and trading. Revenge trading - when you develop a mindset that a particular market "owes" you - a need to win back on the same market that you took losses on rather than switching to a better set up elsewhere. After a big loss my approach is to stay out of the market and analyse my loss to ensure I know why it happened and learn to avoid making the same mistakes again. Alas I often wind up relearning old lessons, which is another factor. Creating a "need" to make regular profits, which in turn puts too much pressure on the trader to find traders every day - the top guys do not trade everyday, they wait for the set up to be ripe. Additionally this pressure mounts up with each loss because now you need to make back your losses as well as make your regular profit, which makes the trading more reckless and results in more losses. One reason some successful traders start offering various services such as education; mentoring and tips is to get a regular income so their trading can be on a capital appreciation footing, which is what it needs to be. Believing your own BS - when a profitable trade comes off you start to get cocky and feel invulnerable so you take more speculative trades and don't stick rigourlessly to your method - this is about greed Over trading, especially after a good win. I agree with @Caseynotes but in addition, to avoid the issue in the question, a trader needs a firm grip of their emotions; needs to only trade when the set up is strong, not for other reasons; needs to cut losses and take the hit quickly, learn how to lose and need to have a method to get a sense for the rhythms of the market to avoid trading against the trend. It is about maximising your chances of success and minimising the pain when (not if) you get it wrong. There is a difference between trading and analysing (coming up with the premise for your trade) but there isn't much difference between trading and investing in the context of the premise of the question. In investing punters (and that is what they are) go in for the wrong reasons; at the wrong times and hold on too long when things go against them. They also, by and large, think they know more than they actually do about how financial markets operate. The only material difference is that there losses are limited to the stake invested whereas trading on leverage has open-ended downside.
  46. 3 points
    they should give everyone $10k of credit for screwing this up
  47. 3 points
    Recent attention to a looming recession has come about due yield spreads turning negative - see FRED. 2yr v 10yr seems to be preferred. It's been a pretty good indicator in the past and for those that say "it's different this time" - I doubt it. Average time from inversion to recession is quoted at 17 months. If that's right then it puts it late 2020 possibly early 21. We now have the longest bull market ever recorded and it's been driven by massive injections from the central bank needle. Drugs work until they don't. This fits with my motto "It doesn't matter.....until it does!" Remember this bull, rising since the GFC, has risen primarily on "bad" news ( i.e.the needles comin'). Any hint it will be withdrawn is met with the screaming abdabs. It's effectiveness is diminished after each fresh dose. You need more and more to achieve the desired effect. The US having the least smelling pile, now has rates at 2%. It's reckoned you need 3% -4% minimum to fight a recession and why, ideally, the Fed wants it higher. The firepower for easing in that situation isn't there. So more Quantative it is. Bull markets die on euphoria. It doesn't feel quite like that yet so I'd say we're in a wave 4 which will be exited on the next QE dose. The Fed will probably paint itself into a corner and be unable to fight the next recession with rate cuts when it comes. All boats (equity and bonds) rose on this last tide so expect the opposite by which time all thought of central banks being the great panacea will have evaporated.
  48. 3 points
    It's taken me over a year of demo account trading to "perfect" a strategy that is proving profitable on a weekly basis... I'm in this for the long run, so really no rush to get into the markets, but I think I am just about ready to enter the "real world". One of the major lessons I learnt over the year (beyond what has already been mentioned above), PATIENCE! Literally sitting watching the ticker for the right time to enter the trade has been key, you may miss a trade or two, but in the long run its pays to see confirmation in trend before taking on the risk. Oh, and when I say a year, I mean literally every day of the week for a minimum of 2 hours (excluding videos on yourtube, audio books, reading about trading etc).
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