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Aussie growth underwhelms: APAC brief 7 June
Aussie growth underwhelms: Australian GDP data was the highlight of the economic calendar yesterday. All-in-all, the data was of minimal impact, though it did for make big headlines: the growth rate came-in at 1.8 per cent on an annualized basis, as expected – the slowest rate of economic growth since the GFC. A poor print undoubtedly, but one that had been priced into the market well in advance. Hence, markets were little moved upon the release. The ASX200 hardly budged. The Australian Dollar lifted very slightly, and temporarily tussled with the 0.7000 handle. And interest rate markets increased very marginally the probabilities of more RBA cuts by year-end.

Where the weakness is: The data was more of interest for economists and other pedants. And there were some interesting takeaways from the release. As is well known, one of the major headwinds for domestic growth is private consumption, which continued to show signs of slowing. The savings ratio also lifted, as consumers seemingly opted to defer spending and pocket their modest pay rises. More than just demand side concerns, there was also a noteworthy drag on growth from the supply side. Dwelling investment also contracted in the last year, in line with what has been a well-publicised slowdown in construction activity, and sustained falls in the property market.

Where growth is coming from: The GDP data wasn’t without its silver linings, of course. A series of factors leapt-out as the primary drivers of growth in the Australian economy in the past 12 months. It was largely improvements in the nation’s terms of trade, courtesy of the major multi-month rally in iron ore, followed by big government spending measures, mostly in form of the NDIS and other health services, that proved the greatest contributors to growth. Though welcomed, to be sure, the areas of Australia’s economy sustaining growth speaks of a country currently working below its capacity, and in need of some sort of a boost.
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Chart on mobile Android app not working
A recent Google Chrome roll out has had a negative impact on the IG android app. This recent change has meant that charts, among other things, are not loading. Please check the following thread for more info.
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Trade wars grow more global; Dollar reserve risks; a host of fundamental themes - DailyFX Key Themes
In a surprise move, the United States is now fighting a full trade war on two fronts as of this past week. With the path to a US-China compromise still lacking any clear hand holds, US President Donald Trump announced a wholly unexpected  economic move against neighbor Mexico this past Thursday evening. According to his tweet, the United States would charge a 5 percent import tax on ALL Mexican goods coming into the country as of June 10th. He further made clear that this was move not in retaliation for trade issues – in fact conditions had seemed to improve significantly on that front with the US dropping the steel and aluminum taxes on both of its direct neighbors in a bid to push through the USMCA agreement.
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Dividend Adjustments 3 June - 10 June
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 3 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
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Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: APAC brief 31 May
Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: The overnight session was, on balance, positive for risk assets, though the conviction behind market-moves was missing. The S&P500 – the natural barometer for market-mood currently – experienced a middling day. It’s closed more-or-less flat, having made a failed foray higher throughout Wall Street trade, to have sold off right-below crucial resistance at 2800. For the bulls in the market, circumstances didn’t fundamentally change last night. The short-term trend is pointing to the downside, with momentum clearly holding in that direction, too. The 200-day moving average is acting as a magnet for the index now, seemingly keeping the market neutralized until the next market-moving catalyst. 
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Post in USDCAD short drop before a mega rally?
"USDCAD continues it tortuous consolidation with lots of whipsaw action.  The price action still looks like a complex retrace trapped in a range to me but this market has arrived at a critical juncture this morning with a short term double top just posted.  If the market rejects a breakout to a higher high then the retrace move remains intact and a sharp drop should ensue.  However a breakout would indicate that the wave B bigger picture retrace/consolidation is not yet done and more upside is on the cards for a while."

Bollinger Bands 20, 2.5 - always wins, what am I missing?
"Pretty simple strategy: I am looking on a daily chart for the major indices (eg S&P500, Nikkei 225, DAX30) and have Bollinger bands (20, 2.5). As soon as there is a significant breakout below the lower band (or higher band, but since I have started trading, it was always the lower one) I will buy in. Usually not into a straight falling knife but wait until there is some stability eg for 15-30min at a low level."
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Markets returning to normal trade: APAC brief 29 May
Markets returning to normal trade: action is any guide, their verdict of the weekend news flow is “not much has really changed”. This isn’t to say the movements in financial markets in the past 12-18 hours have been ones of major conviction. Afterall, volumes are still light and the extent of the moves in price witnessed were modest. Nevertheless, despite what was notionally a tranquil weekend for financial market news, market participants have seen it fit to continue to take risk off the table, as if nothing has really changed at all.
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The future of Europe in question: APAC brief 27 May
Global political economy in focus: International diplomacy, politics and global trade are at centre of attention to begin the new week. Indeed, that’s in part due to the corporate and economic calendar appearing relatively lighter, being the final week of the month; as well as the fact the UK and US are off on public holidays on Monday. But even in the absence of other hard-hitting, high impact news, the confluence of politics-related headlines merits attention in their own right. And it spans the globe: Trump is talking trade in Japan, the Europeans are voting in their Parliamentary elections, and the UK is now searching for a new Prime Minister.

Markets watching for surprises: The overarching narrative hasn’t fundamentally changed. Generally speaking, a level of bearishness characterizes market activity, as the US-China trade war continues to rattle nerves. Nevertheless, global politics and international relations is bringing-about some shifting gears within the broader economic machine. On balance, there’s been little fall-out from the handful of political events unfolding across the globe. If anything, though not game-changing, they’ve collectively proven to be a net-positive for market sentiment. Of course, this could turn-around rapidly: traders ought to be used to expecting the unexpected by now. Hence, the least that can be said is “so-far”, so good.
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Post in Indices
"UK retail sales at 9:30 and US durable goods at 1:30. Strong bear day yesterday though only Nikkei tested key support levels." Stay up to date on how the indices are moving and have your say.

Post in Successful strategy?
Analysis of 43 million trades by DailyFX showed that 61% of trades are actually profitable (when looking at EURUSD specifically). Read more about that and check out their Podcast here. Have any questions? Ask away.
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Brent Crude rally ends, time for the big Bear!
"Looks to me like my question as to whether the the 25 April turn was a rally end or a simple retrace may have been answered as Brent price dropped hard through the supporting lower channel line.  I would like to see the recent lows broken to confirm but odds are that this market is now heading down.  Could this mean that Stocks have also topped out?"
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Post in Dax & Dow
What are your long term opinions on market movements? "As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes."
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A split in the trade war path; growth forecasts; EU Parliamentary elections - DailyFX Key Themes
Are We Turning the Corner on Global Trade Wars? There were a few very prominent, positive developments on the trade war front this past week, but is it enough to systemically change the course of the global economic standoff back towards the cooperative growth of the past?
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Post in Problem with high stakes poker
"How does the hand get played out? That's the trillion dollar question. Xi has the advantage of time. Trump the advantage of financial clout (he's their biggest customer). However, the poker analogy is not really fair as the results are not binary, more quantum than binary. There are no big winners from an escalation of the current situation and the downsides are far from desirable."
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Price-action looks ominous for the S&P500: APAC brief - 20 May
A choppy week ends generally flat for Wall Street: Global stocks ended the week on softer footing. But if one narrows their attention to just the S&P500 as the bellwether, the past 5-days culminated in only a 0.76 per cent fall. Trade continues to dominate sentiment on a macro-scale. The US-China trade-war has deteriorated considerably, with positivity in the market currently being sustained by some vague hope that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines of June’s G20 meeting to discuss trade. A total reversal of tariffs between the US and China looks increasingly unlikely however, so markets wait now for the new trade-barriers detrimental consequences to manifest in market fundamentals.

Risk appetite is waning: Intraday price action on Wall Street somewhat reflected the loosening control buyers have on this market. After a spill at the open, the S&P500 grinded higher throughout trade to turn positive on headlines that the US would be removing steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It proved to be cold comfort for market participants, however. Volatility edged-up throughout the session, US Treasuries gained very slightly, and the S&P500 shed 0.58 per cent, capping off a day which witnessed a marked flow out of risk-assets, and into safe-haven assets, wherever they could be found.
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Something Interesting
"USDCNH is flying up to key resistance could mean Govt interventions coming or are they going to let it go through 70000?"
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Customise Stochastic and KDJ indicators on charts
On the back of recent client feedback you can now customise the Stochastic and KDJ indicator levels on IG charts.
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Stock markets continue to recover: APAC brief 17 May
Stock markets continue to recover: Global stocks have maintained their bounce. It’s looking more like a market that is searching for it’s next high now, as price action, from a technical perspective, suggests the recent wave-lower is over. Hence, from here, considering trade-war risks, and therefore anxiety in the market, remains high, the matter becomes whether stock indices are preparing to pop in a new higher-high, or whether what we will see is a new lower-high. The result of that simple binary will inform market participants what the broader trend is in the market: are we still trending higher, or are we seeing the start of a trend reversal?

The litmus test to come: This commentary pertains primarily to the S&P500, which has been the bellwether for global equities, recently. But it could equally be said of the ASX200, too, which demonstrated its resilience yesterday. Just sticking to the S&P500, the price set-up offers some potentially interesting insights about the world, in the weeks to come. Another high for US stocks is another record high and a clear continuation of that market’s bull run – defying, really, what is a deteriorating global backdrop. If this fails to occur, then talk will certainly emerge whether stocks are beginning a prolonged period of weakness, in line with clearly softer fundamentals.
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Post in Relative Rotational Graphs
Hi folks, you may have seen the 'announcement' on Community, but at 10:30 today we'll have Julius de Kempenear, founder of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) discussing GBP and how it is trading among its peers, as well as the future prospects of the FTSE 100. We'll be discussing the sectors on the move and how RRG’s try to identify a trend.
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Large FTSE & Wall St dividends tonight
We're expecting large dividends tonight. You can see the breakdown via the BBG screenshots attached. You can also check out other Index dividend adjustments on our weekly blog post.
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Post in Earnings Calendar
Earnings releases before US market open tomorrow. Check out these possible technical setups. What are your thoughts on these opinions?
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Trade wars escalate; political risks spread; don't trust volatility readings - DailyFX Key Themes
The world seemed to be on a very different path a week ago. Through the close on Friday, May 3rd, the rhetoric serving as forward guidance for the US-China trade war was clearly being directed to suggest the end to the economic conflict was at hand.

That took a dramatic turn two days later when US President Trump contradicted the leaks of an impending compromise and deal by stating clearly that the United States would raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports that were being levied 10 percent to an even more punitive 25 percent. True to his word, the President ratcheted up the trade war between the world’s two largest individual economies.
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