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Top content from across the community, hand-picked by us.
Bullishness rolls on - APAC brief 17 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Bullishness rolls on: The bullish correction in financial markets continues, and global equity markets are rolling on. It’s a matter of contention as to why this rally hasn’t been faded, just in the short term. Stocks were oversold on a technical basis, and the market internals were very over-stretched at the deepest trough of the recent sell-off. An elastic band effect was expected – a brief snap back in to place. Perhaps complacency will bite at some stage, and the rally in risk-assets will prove a mere counter-trend. Analysing the price-action however, the buyers are controlling the market. Keys levels in several major share-indices have been tested and breached. Yes, without overwhelming conviction, but the technical breaks of resistance are there. One must respect the will of the market.
Fear falling, confidence rising: Substance in the move higher is lacking, just at present. Fundamental justifications are emerging, though not in such way yet that justifies out-right bullishness in this market. Earnings season in the US has gotten off to a good start, with bellwether banks beating analyst forecasts thus far, and the overstated effects of Brexit have been contained. The meaty part of reporting season is still ahead of us, so evidence US corporates are in a better than expected shape remains wanting. The simple explanation for why market participants are more confident now is that they believe policymakers have their back. Separating the philosophical arguments about whether that ought to be proper reason to take-risk, invest and trade in a financial market, for self-interested traders, that’s enough of a cue to buy-in now.
Fear falling, confidence rising: Substance in the move higher is lacking, just at present. Fundamental justifications are emerging, though not in such way yet that justifies out-right bullishness in this market. Earnings season in the US has gotten off to a good start, with bellwether banks beating analyst forecasts thus far, and the overstated effects of Brexit have been contained. The meaty part of reporting season is still ahead of us, so evidence US corporates are in a better than expected shape remains wanting. The simple explanation for why market participants are more confident now is that they believe policymakers have their back. Separating the philosophical arguments about whether that ought to be proper reason to take-risk, invest and trade in a financial market, for self-interested traders, that’s enough of a cue to buy-in now.
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#IGBrexitChat - submit your questions to our panel - EMEA trading session
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Community Blog,
We have a live #IGBrexitChat broadcast today at 13:00 GMT to follow up on market movements and potential trade opportunities. Submit your questions to our panel now!
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Double defeat: Will May survive no confidence vote? - EMEA Brief 16 Jan
MichaelaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
May's Brexit deal rejected by 230 votes making may's defeat the biggest in UK history of sitting governments. The no vote saw the GBP rise 0.05% to $1.28. As a result of the landslide defeat May is to face vote of no confidence, the vote is expected to be held at 19:00 GMT.
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The Brexit-vote fall-out - APAC brief 16 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
ASX’s looming recovery: The ASX200 has clawed itself to a level on the cusp of validating the notion that the market has bottomed. It might feel that we ought to already be at that stage, given we sit 7-and-a-half per cent of the markets lows. But turnarounds take time to be confirmed, and now having broken psychological-resistance at 5800, Australian equities are inches away from that point. There are counterarguments to be made, to be fair: the recent rally has come on the back of lower volumes, and the buyers have lost a degree of momentum. Nevertheless, the capacity to push beyond 5800, and then when the time comes, form a new low when the inevitable short-term retracement arrives, would give credence to the “market-recovery” narrative.
ASX today: SPI futures this morning is pointing to a gain on 7 points at the open, at time of writing. There are several risks that could undermine that outlook. As the laptop’s keys are being tapped, there is 2 hours left to go on Wall Street, and the UK Parliament have just begun the process to vote on UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit Bill. More on that later. ASX bulls today will be searching for a solid follow through from yesterday’s 0.71 per cent gain. The daily candle on the ASX200 chart showed a market controlled by buyers from start to finish: the market never dipped below its opening price, and it finished by leaping to a new daily (and 2-month high) at the close.
ASX today: SPI futures this morning is pointing to a gain on 7 points at the open, at time of writing. There are several risks that could undermine that outlook. As the laptop’s keys are being tapped, there is 2 hours left to go on Wall Street, and the UK Parliament have just begun the process to vote on UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit Bill. More on that later. ASX bulls today will be searching for a solid follow through from yesterday’s 0.71 per cent gain. The daily candle on the ASX200 chart showed a market controlled by buyers from start to finish: the market never dipped below its opening price, and it finished by leaping to a new daily (and 2-month high) at the close.
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Post in Brexit Countdown
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
It's a big day for UK and EU politics, but how will that play into market volatility? Discuss options on IG Community and plan your trading strategy. "Possible affect on eurgbp and gbpusd of the different scenarios possible on the 'deal' vote today and beyond..."
The meaningful vote: not-so-bad outcome or disaster? - EMEA Brief 15 Jan
IG-Andi posted a blog entry in Market News,
Crude oil bounced higher overnight after a free-fall since Friday. WTI floated past $51.50 a barrel, after gaining 1.29%, as the markets struggle to balance out the OPEC production cuts with concerns over global growth and increased US production.
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A (shallow) sea of red - APAC brief 15 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A (shallow) sea of red: There is a lot of red across the board for global equity indices to start the week, but the extent and strength of the downside swings have so far proven quite benign. The theme dominating markets yesterday and overnight was that of slower global growth. It kicked-off more-or-less following the release of some abysmal Chinese trade figures, that added further concern that the Chinese, and therefore global economy is heading for a significant slow-down. The data sparked a generally bearish mood in global markets, prompting a bid-higher in traditional safe-haven assets. At time of writing, the JPY is up along with gold, equities are down, copper is off, commodity-currencies like the A-Dollar has dipped, while bond prices are relatively steady.
A still quiet day: The VIX index jumped at the start of day’s session but is paring its gains. It remains below the 20 level still – far from its lofty December heights. Concerns about slower global growth is the theme as mentioned, however it’s not rattling trader nerves right now as much as it might have in the recent past. Activity has also been thin. Volumes in every major share market were markedly below average. The swings we have seen in prices too are very modest compared to what one might expect in a market still inhibited (somewhat) by thin holiday liquidity. Global growth is a major headwind, markets are sure of that. However, the behaviour of traders could just as readily be attributed positioning ahead of several weeks of event risk and possible uncertainty.
A still quiet day: The VIX index jumped at the start of day’s session but is paring its gains. It remains below the 20 level still – far from its lofty December heights. Concerns about slower global growth is the theme as mentioned, however it’s not rattling trader nerves right now as much as it might have in the recent past. Activity has also been thin. Volumes in every major share market were markedly below average. The swings we have seen in prices too are very modest compared to what one might expect in a market still inhibited (somewhat) by thin holiday liquidity. Global growth is a major headwind, markets are sure of that. However, the behaviour of traders could just as readily be attributed positioning ahead of several weeks of event risk and possible uncertainty.
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Dividend Adjustments 14 Jan - 21 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14 Jan 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Trade war hopes; US government shutdown; key Brexit vote - DailyFX Key Themes - EMEA and Americas
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
We are just over 75 days away from the official date that the United Kingdom is due to separate from the European Union. If all that was necessary was to come to terms with an agreement between the two parties on their relationship post-split, this would perhaps not be so frightening...
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Clouds Loom as Chinese Economy Falters - EMEA Brief 14 Jan
JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Asian stocks fell as China's export data indicated a shock contraction, declining by 7.6% since July 2016. This points to deepening cracks in the world's second largest economy and increased fears of a significant slowdown in global growth and businesses.
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Global stocks - APAC brief 14 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Global stocks: Global equities will be forced to prove their mettle this week. Price action suggests that for many equity indices, the market is ambling at a cross-road. The macro-economic challenges moving markets in general haven't been resolved. That remained true during last week's trade, which saw global stocks move higher, in general. The difference this week is there are more numerous and higher impact risk-events that could make or break the stock market's recovery. There will be no shortage of potential catalysts to move markets, in the short term, into its next phase. Opportunity for both upside and downside exists. Though given the one-way run experienced on Wall Street, perhaps it should be judged that the risk is skewed slightly to the downside, for now.
US market’s cross-roads: The will of the Bulls was under scrutiny in the latter part of last week. The lingering question has yet to be answered: are we experiencing a recovery, or will this be a faded rally? The S&P500 couldn't manage to break the big-psychological resistance level of 2600. The bulls appeared to simply stall on Friday, with the US market according to the S&P500 closing a very narrow 0.01 per cent lower. Friday's trade amounted to the only negative session for the major-US stock index for the week. The upside-momentum is apparently waning for US equities. The VIX is lower it must be stated, so fear is diminishing in the market. But perhaps confidence is still rattled somewhat by December's market-rout.
US market’s cross-roads: The will of the Bulls was under scrutiny in the latter part of last week. The lingering question has yet to be answered: are we experiencing a recovery, or will this be a faded rally? The S&P500 couldn't manage to break the big-psychological resistance level of 2600. The bulls appeared to simply stall on Friday, with the US market according to the S&P500 closing a very narrow 0.01 per cent lower. Friday's trade amounted to the only negative session for the major-US stock index for the week. The upside-momentum is apparently waning for US equities. The VIX is lower it must be stated, so fear is diminishing in the market. But perhaps confidence is still rattled somewhat by December's market-rout.
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Using IG alerts to identify trading opportunities
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Community Blog,
We have different alerts for every type of trader, from the technical analyst to the long-term investor. See which ones will work for you and review some possible use cases to help you identify trade opportunities.
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Will the New Year Blues continue? - EMEA Brief 11 Jan
MichaelaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Yesterday saw further pessimism from corporate giants as the likes of Jaguar Land Rover, Macy's Inc and BlackRock Inc cut profit forecasts.
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Sentiment cooling - APAC brief 11 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Sentiment cooling: Sentiment is cooling and the drivers that have sustained global equity's recovery are subsiding. It's no cause for alarm (yet) by any means. The markets are demonstrating a level of short-term exhaustion after its chaotic December. The same risks remain; traders have just shifted their views. The concerns regarding a slow-down in global growth have abated somewhat, though the issue is still simmering. The outlook for how the Fed will approach policy is being judged as more-dovish, however it remains an ambiguous matter. The US and China appear to be pushing for a trade-deal, but it's known that it will be a protracted process to arrive at one. The US government shut down is down the list of worries for markets for now, although it is gradually gaining greater significance.
ASX200’s crossroads: SPI futures are currently indicating a modest jump of 5 points for the ASX200 at the open. The conviction for Aussie-market Bulls will be tested today. The ASX200 stands before a reasonably significant wall, that if climbed, goes some way to validate that it's recent rally is more than a counter-trend. The zone between 5780 and 5800 has proven a marshy resistance area in the last two-days. The Bulls have done well to push the market through prevailing downward trend-line resistance, but now a meaningful push through 5800 is required to confirm the move higher. After a lukewarm day, the ASX managed to close at 5797, courtesy of a somewhat inexplicable 0.3 per cent jump in the index's price in the post-market auction.
ASX200’s crossroads: SPI futures are currently indicating a modest jump of 5 points for the ASX200 at the open. The conviction for Aussie-market Bulls will be tested today. The ASX200 stands before a reasonably significant wall, that if climbed, goes some way to validate that it's recent rally is more than a counter-trend. The zone between 5780 and 5800 has proven a marshy resistance area in the last two-days. The Bulls have done well to push the market through prevailing downward trend-line resistance, but now a meaningful push through 5800 is required to confirm the move higher. After a lukewarm day, the ASX managed to close at 5797, courtesy of a somewhat inexplicable 0.3 per cent jump in the index's price in the post-market auction.
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UK Retail Sales Average Flat Heading Into Super Thursday – EMEA Brief 10 Jan
IGAaronC posted a blog entry in Market News,
Today is considered ‘Super Thursday’ as a number of large UK retailers are set to release their Christmas sales data. This comes after a report from the British Retail Consortium which said that average retail sales saw 0% year on year growth
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Bullish week continues - APAC brief 10 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The bullish week continues: The pointy end of the week has arrived, and so far, the news flow is lining up well for the bulls. The big release, perhaps for the whole week, was this morning’s FOMC Minutes. Naturally, the information is old, relevant mostly to the December 19 period in which the central bank met. But given the market turmoil experienced since then, along with January’s nascent recovery, this set of Fed minutes has taken on slightly greater significance. The reception, as far as investors and other bulls are concerned, has been positive. The document reveals a much more dovish Fed than the one that Chairperson Jerome Powell presented at that meeting’s press conference. The Powell-put is in, it is being judged: the market has Fed support.
Confidence boosted by dovish Fed: That’s the perception, anyway. It could change but considering sentiment has vacillated recently on shifting “narratives”, a rosy outlook is apparently enough to pique risk-appetite. Combing through the fine-print of the Fed Minutes and few details jump out. Confidence about future growth has waned very slightly, and the need for higher interests has come into question. In fact, a few members voiced their belief the Fed should have kept rates on hold at the December meeting. The board also highlighted the disconnect between financial markets and the “real” economy, though it did add that downside risks to the US economy had increased. Without quoting line for line, the document contains the nuanced and market-sympathetic tone the bulls have been waiting for, vindicating this week’s upside turn in global equities.
Market response: The response by traders has been to buy stocks and bonds, sell the US Dollar, and seek out other risk-on-assets. The comprehensive S&P500 is dancing with the 2600 pivot point, and the reluctance to go beyond that level shows.
Confidence boosted by dovish Fed: That’s the perception, anyway. It could change but considering sentiment has vacillated recently on shifting “narratives”, a rosy outlook is apparently enough to pique risk-appetite. Combing through the fine-print of the Fed Minutes and few details jump out. Confidence about future growth has waned very slightly, and the need for higher interests has come into question. In fact, a few members voiced their belief the Fed should have kept rates on hold at the December meeting. The board also highlighted the disconnect between financial markets and the “real” economy, though it did add that downside risks to the US economy had increased. Without quoting line for line, the document contains the nuanced and market-sympathetic tone the bulls have been waiting for, vindicating this week’s upside turn in global equities.
Market response: The response by traders has been to buy stocks and bonds, sell the US Dollar, and seek out other risk-on-assets. The comprehensive S&P500 is dancing with the 2600 pivot point, and the reluctance to go beyond that level shows.
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Equities surge on trade talks progress; Oil rises - EMEA Brief 9 Jan
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The US government remains in shutdown as Donald Trump addressed the nation yesterday on border security in an attempt to gain support and funding for his wall, claiming that there is a "Humanitarian and National Security crisis" in the US.
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Calmer trade, vigilance remains - APAC brief 9 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Calmer trade, vigilance remains: The sense of cautious optimism in markets remains. Extreme swings in sentiment have been absent. Calm prevails, albeit within a mindset of greater vigilance. There hasn’t been a face ripping rally, nor a vertigo inducing fall, in global equities this week. The trading activity does feel distinct from that which was experienced in December. Fear and subsequent volatility is unwinding. The VIX continues to edge lower, though at a slower pace now. Several of the panic-inducing issues that drove the bearish activity in markets in the last quarter of 2018 appear to be progressing positively. But it’s understood that in the case of almost all these matters, ranging from slowing global-growth, to the trade-war, to Brexit and to Fed policy, that there is much more to unfold.
US stocks await their test: An inflection point will arrive where market participants will have to decide whether to push this rally in global equities from simple bounce to true recovery. The United States stock market sits at the epicentre of financial market volatility right now and judging by the price action on the S&P500, we may be inching towards that point. Putting aside the nuance of individual geographies, the S&P500 has set the tone for trade in the rest of the world’s markets. As it stands, the index has demonstrated an initial higher low, following its recent bottom at 2350. The Bull’s fight really begins now, as traders eye a cluster of resistance levels between 2580 and 2630, which will determine in a big way whether this rally has legs.
US stocks await their test: An inflection point will arrive where market participants will have to decide whether to push this rally in global equities from simple bounce to true recovery. The United States stock market sits at the epicentre of financial market volatility right now and judging by the price action on the S&P500, we may be inching towards that point. Putting aside the nuance of individual geographies, the S&P500 has set the tone for trade in the rest of the world’s markets. As it stands, the index has demonstrated an initial higher low, following its recent bottom at 2350. The Bull’s fight really begins now, as traders eye a cluster of resistance levels between 2580 and 2630, which will determine in a big way whether this rally has legs.
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Combine drawings and indicators
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Product Updates,
Did you know that you can add drawings to the indicator study area both on desktop and mobile of the IG charts.
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Do you ever ‘force’ motivation on yourself?
PandaFace posted a question in IG Trading Support - Dealing Questions,
"I find it difficult to get back into trading after an extended break. Does anyone else?" Join the discussion and share your thoughts.
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Is Gold heading down? - EMEA Brief 08 Jan
IG-Andi posted a blog entry in Market News,
Trading in Asia was mixed as investors try to balance macro risks with optimism towards trade talks. The top performers were Japan’s Topix and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 both rose about 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3%.
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Wall Street’s follow-through - APAC brief 8 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Wall Street’s follow-through: Markets have basked in the afterglow of Wall Street's bull-friendly Friday session. They've gotten what they've been screaming for: some strong data and a more-dovish US Federal Reserve. For the first time in a month, perhaps more, trade has been characterised by a relative sense of calm. The VIX is drifting lower and toward the 20-mark. Stocks are up on Wall Street after a solid day in Asia, and global bonds are down. This could all change in an instant, that much is known. There are too many moving parts in this market to truly believe stability will be an ongoing theme. For now, a recess from the mad volatility that capped the end of 2018 is being welcomed by investors - and perhaps lamented by your risk-loving active-trader.
Markets placated… for now: It's the behaviour one might consider akin to that of an obstinate child. Markets, particularly in the equities space, threw as many toys out of the pram as they could find in the past 3 months, in protest of the Fed's tough talk. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell's back down and soothing words finally placated markets, giving the financial equivalent of a candy-bar in exchange for markets' good behaviour. Last night, Fed Speaker Bostic backed his chief up and reaffirmed the dovish-tone: he sees little more than one hike this year, even amid a solid growth outlook. Taking aside whether it’s the right kind of positive reinforcement, the question becomes whether the underlying problem has been fixed or is just a distraction from the facts.
Markets placated… for now: It's the behaviour one might consider akin to that of an obstinate child. Markets, particularly in the equities space, threw as many toys out of the pram as they could find in the past 3 months, in protest of the Fed's tough talk. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell's back down and soothing words finally placated markets, giving the financial equivalent of a candy-bar in exchange for markets' good behaviour. Last night, Fed Speaker Bostic backed his chief up and reaffirmed the dovish-tone: he sees little more than one hike this year, even amid a solid growth outlook. Taking aside whether it’s the right kind of positive reinforcement, the question becomes whether the underlying problem has been fixed or is just a distraction from the facts.
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Could it be the end of the trade war?- EMEA Brief 07 Jan
KatherineIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
US and China meeting in Beijing 7th - 8th Jan, to hold trade talks at vice ministerial level, looking to end the trade war as both economies are affected
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Shift in preception - APAC brief 7 Jan
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A shift in perceptions: The fundamentals shifted on Friday. It wasn't a complete "180", but enough to change market sentiment in favour of the Bulls. The highly anticipated monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figure, along with US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's interview, delivered the goldilocks outcome market participants were craving. For those holding hope for financial markets and the global economy, the information gathered from each event soothed nerves that a major global economic slowdown is upon us. It's too early to make a solid call and form a trend from the circumstances, it must be noted – especially following the poor US ISM Manufacturing data and Apple's revenue downgrade. However, the news was enough to spark bullishness in traders, driving a rally into risk assets and out of safe havens to cap-off last week.
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Dividend Adjustments 07 Jan - 11 Jan
JamesIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 07 Jan 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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