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Top content from across the community, hand-picked by us.
Post in Crude Oil (WTI)
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
"Brent is now approaching (well poking through) my upper channel line. I have been saying for weeks that this is the point to consider that a counter trend rally may be on. We still need a close above to confirm but sometimes the breakout can be fast and it looks to me like we are in a wave 3 (strong move)."
Liquidity is thinning, Fed is telling us something, a true G20 breakthrough? - DFX key themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
We have officially closed out November Friday and we are now heading into the final month of the trading year. Historically, December is one of the most reserved months of the calendar year with strong positive returns for benchmark risk assets like the S&P 500 along with a sharp drop in volume and significant drop in traditional volatility measures (like the VIX index).
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High-Stakes in the House of Commons - EMEA Brief 04 Dec
JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Theresa May will begin the five days of her House of Commons debate today, culminating in a historic vote on her Brexit compromise deal on December 11.
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A bullish Monday - APAC brief 2 Dec
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A bullish Monday: That big uplift we were all expecting after the weekend’s events at the G20 has transpired. The trade-war truce, as fleeting as it may prove to be, has supported a substantial enough boost in sentiment. Risk appetite has been teased, and risk assets across the global, beginning in the Asian session yesterday, and carrying through European and North American trade, have dutifully rallied, consequently. It’s a synchronized boost, prevailing across asset-classes, with traders relishing the double-shot of bullishness injected into markets in the last 7 days: a much more dovish Fed, which has lowered the possibility of higher global interest rates; and a de-escalation of the trade-war, which has ameliorated the concerns regarding future global economic growth.
Global stocks: There remains, at time of writing, a few moments left in the North American session, and as it stands, the good-vibrations are waning somewhat. Nevertheless, Wall Street is higher, capping-off a positive day for markets overall. The NASDAQ is leading the charge, up around 1 per cent for the session, while the Dow Jones and S&P500 are 0.7 per cent higher for the day. It follows an Asian and European session which saw the Nikkei up 1 per cent, the CSI300 up 2.8 per cent, the DAX up 1.85 per cent, and the FTSE100 up 1.2 per cent. Volumes have also been very substantial, running 30 per cent above average on the S&P, and a remarkable 45 per cent above average in Chinese share markets, adding conviction behind the day’s trade.
Global stocks: There remains, at time of writing, a few moments left in the North American session, and as it stands, the good-vibrations are waning somewhat. Nevertheless, Wall Street is higher, capping-off a positive day for markets overall. The NASDAQ is leading the charge, up around 1 per cent for the session, while the Dow Jones and S&P500 are 0.7 per cent higher for the day. It follows an Asian and European session which saw the Nikkei up 1 per cent, the CSI300 up 2.8 per cent, the DAX up 1.85 per cent, and the FTSE100 up 1.2 per cent. Volumes have also been very substantial, running 30 per cent above average on the S&P, and a remarkable 45 per cent above average in Chinese share markets, adding conviction behind the day’s trade.
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Adding the % Range column to a watchlist
DanielaIG posted a blog entry in IG Product Updates,
You can now add % Range to a watchlist on the web trading platform
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US and China agree tariff ceasefire; Markets soar - EMEA Brief 3 Dec
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The US and China have agreed a temporary ceasefire on additional tariffs on each others goods at the G-20 summit in Argentina to allow for trade talks to continue in the new year.
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Trumps G20 summit - APAC brief 3 Dec
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Trump’s G20 Summit: Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump seems to be able to get things done. Given he is the most powerful man in the word – at the very least, in a political sense – perhaps this isn’t such a difficult task. When you have the world’s largest economy, coupled with the world’s most potent military at your disposal, one would have all the leverage needed to get their way. But nevertheless, arguably not since Ronald Reagan has global politics experienced such a rapid ideological shift. There were plenty of little-stories, centring around a myriad of economic and political issues, that were played out at the weekend’s G20 summit. The overarching narrative however, at what was possibly the most historically significant G20 meeting since 2009 – when world leaders gathered to discuss the global economy at the depths of the Global Financial Crisis – was about the pitfalls of global trade and migration, and it had President Trump written all over it.
Typical talk-fest: As generally occurs at these talk-fests, this year’s G20 summit was apparently characterized by the typical jostling and lobbying between the many tiers of power. What happens behind closed doors seemingly stays behind closed doors (it’s hardly surprising the masses treat these engagements with cynicism, if not outright paranoia), so it’s difficult to know the depth of discussion shared by world leaders. What we do get though is a nice little communique at the end of it all, summarizing the broad, shared vision of the member countries, with some normative statements articulating how the world ought to approach itself in the future. The short-term financial market implications of this year’s statement will presumably be limited, and more focused on (somewhat improving) US-Sino relations.
Typical talk-fest: As generally occurs at these talk-fests, this year’s G20 summit was apparently characterized by the typical jostling and lobbying between the many tiers of power. What happens behind closed doors seemingly stays behind closed doors (it’s hardly surprising the masses treat these engagements with cynicism, if not outright paranoia), so it’s difficult to know the depth of discussion shared by world leaders. What we do get though is a nice little communique at the end of it all, summarizing the broad, shared vision of the member countries, with some normative statements articulating how the world ought to approach itself in the future. The short-term financial market implications of this year’s statement will presumably be limited, and more focused on (somewhat improving) US-Sino relations.
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Post in Crude Oil (WTI)
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
"Looks to me like we could be about to get that retrace rally I have been seeking. On the Daily chart price looks to have bounced off long term support, this goes back to a Wave A turn down on the previous LT rally (weekly chart), a typically good support/resistance zone from an EWT perspective. The bearish move down conforms to a 1-5 motive wave (direction of the big picture trend and indicates next move will be counter trend relief rally)."
High Stakes at the G20 Summit - EMEA Brief 30 Nov
JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The G20 summit in Argentina begins today, where discussions around trade, Brexit, and tensions between Russia and Ukraine are expected to be the dominant topics to take centre-stage.
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Relief rally - APAC Brief 30 Nov
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A relief rally, now onto the next risk: The relief rally for market-bulls was sweet, but fleeting: it’s on to the next risk event now. Traders are being inundated by information, much of it speculative. Against this backdrop, volatility reigns: while off its highs still, the VIX is up 2.7 per cent on the day. To be clear, the Fed’s dovishness and Mr. Powell’s-famous-Put is underwriting the potential for future bullishness. But market participants can’t afford to let their guard down in this environment. We have the world’s most powerful politicians converging on Argentina, and with so many fissures running-through global political economy, the number of issues threatening market stability is considerable. One assumes that every generation thinks of themselves as existing at the end of history – reference: we can thank Fukuyama for that notion, perhaps – but it does sometimes feel that with the world-order trembling, we are living through a historical juncture of some description.
Markets want what’s familiar: Markets don’t like this. They desire support and stability and a protection of the status quo. It’s why, in part, seeing the Fed ostensibly step in to support financial markets is so emboldening, and sparks all sorts of bullish impulses. This is especially so within equity markets, which being able to gorge on cheap credit for years, became spoilt and fattened. The fundamentals of the system itself are shaky. Although this ought to be an inherent virtue when it comes to the nature of capitalism – the notion of creative destruction, as economist Joseph Schumpeter expressed it, whereby viable investments prosper, and wasteful inefficiencies are purged – for the better part of a decade, policy makers (rightly or wrongly) have sought to resist this process to maintain a semblance of economic constancy and social confidence.
Markets want what’s familiar: Markets don’t like this. They desire support and stability and a protection of the status quo. It’s why, in part, seeing the Fed ostensibly step in to support financial markets is so emboldening, and sparks all sorts of bullish impulses. This is especially so within equity markets, which being able to gorge on cheap credit for years, became spoilt and fattened. The fundamentals of the system itself are shaky. Although this ought to be an inherent virtue when it comes to the nature of capitalism – the notion of creative destruction, as economist Joseph Schumpeter expressed it, whereby viable investments prosper, and wasteful inefficiencies are purged – for the better part of a decade, policy makers (rightly or wrongly) have sought to resist this process to maintain a semblance of economic constancy and social confidence.
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Post in Gold & Silver in a LT rally
cryptotrader posted a post in a topic,
"I'm not sure with gold these days. It seems to be very range bound for months and months, as below. Seem to be a little towards a mid range so no real conviction bid or offer."
LIVE video at 1pm - #IGCommodityChat: Oil
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Community Blog,
Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following our previous chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
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Wyckoff Logic
Caseynotes posted a topic in General Trading Strategy Discussion,
Wyckoff accumulation - distribution simplified and "four market phases every trader should know".
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Post in Bitcoin - Price Behaviour
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
The crypto markets are seeing some serious volatility in the latter half of this month. What are your thoughts and do you agree with other Community members?
"This will go down in the annals alongside the Tulip Mania, South Sea bubble and of course the DotCom bubble and the subprime scandal and still to come perhaps the great housing market bubble..."
"This will go down in the annals alongside the Tulip Mania, South Sea bubble and of course the DotCom bubble and the subprime scandal and still to come perhaps the great housing market bubble..."
Fed Rate Reveal Promotes Stock Rally - EMEA Brief 29 Nov
MichaelaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Fed hints that that future interest rate rises may be lower than anticipated. Whilst Wall Street saw it's 5th biggest daily increase Asian stocks also gained as a result, the Nikkei saw a 0.9% increase whilst SoftBank rose over 3% and Nintendo a further 4%.
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Rate rises slowing - APAC bried 29 Nov
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A game of chicken: Did Powell just blink? That’s how last night’s speech from the Fed chair is being interpreted. Debate has raged whether in the face of financial market turmoil, the Fed will be forced to cool its rate-hike rhetoric. Powell’s speech – and this is speculative – may have represented this. Gone was the talk of rates being “a long way” from neutral, and that rates may need to move “past (the) neutral” rate. Instead, it was replaced with the key comment interest rates are “just below” the neutral range, and that future rate hikes, as Fed Vice President Richard Clarida implored yesterday, will be “data dependant”. Perhaps we saw last night, in the tradition of many-a Fed Chair gone before, the latest incarnation of a “Fed-put” – that is, this time around, a “Powell-put”, which will underwrite financial market strength at the first sign of true-trouble.
Rates and bonds: The reactions in financial markets have been predictable, but assertive. US Fed fund futures suggest that traders have heard enough to justify pricing in an 80 per cent chance of a Fed-hike next month. But naturally, the shifting of expectations has been seen in the pricing for rate hikes in 2019. The Fed’s last dot-plots implied 3 hikes for next year – and markets got close to pricing the full three at stages only just over a month ago. We are now seeing just the one, and for some very dovish folk, even that’s too bullish. The short end of the US Treasury curve is manifesting the shift in sentiment: the benchmark 10 Year Treasury note is yielding 3.05 per cent currently, but the yield on interest rate sensitive 2 Year note has fallen back to 2.80 per cent, taking the spread between those two assets back to 25 basis points.
Rates and bonds: The reactions in financial markets have been predictable, but assertive. US Fed fund futures suggest that traders have heard enough to justify pricing in an 80 per cent chance of a Fed-hike next month. But naturally, the shifting of expectations has been seen in the pricing for rate hikes in 2019. The Fed’s last dot-plots implied 3 hikes for next year – and markets got close to pricing the full three at stages only just over a month ago. We are now seeing just the one, and for some very dovish folk, even that’s too bullish. The short end of the US Treasury curve is manifesting the shift in sentiment: the benchmark 10 Year Treasury note is yielding 3.05 per cent currently, but the yield on interest rate sensitive 2 Year note has fallen back to 2.80 per cent, taking the spread between those two assets back to 25 basis points.
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Crude prices gain: are we close to the bottom? - EMEA Brief 28 Nov
IG-Andi posted a blog entry in Market News,
Asian equities gained as investors weighed in comments from Federal Reserve officials and a possible breakthrough in US-China trade war. Shares in Hong Kong and China led the gains with the Hang Seng Index climbing 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.7%.
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Trump and the Trade War - APAC bried 28 Nov
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A loaded menu: If this week in financial markets is a buffet of information, then yesterday’s session tasted like the entrée. The themes that were predicted to define this week’s trade all showed-up in one form or another, hinting at bigger things to come. US President Trump added heat to the trade war, then spiced up the Brexit debate; a speech from US Federal Reserve Vice President Richard Clarida had traders questioning how many Fed hike’s markets have baked-in; another day of plunging oil prices stirred up fears regarding corporate credit; and overcooked tech-stocks fluctuated, with the key ingredient there the wobbles in Apple Inc.’s share price. The mixture of stories blended through the market is just a sample of what could be in store for the rest of the week, with traders now at the edge of their seat and hungry for more answers.
Trump and the Trade War: Okay – enough of the cheesy food metaphors (sorry, last one). What we were delivered in the last 24 hours is very important and establishes the firm possibility of spikes in volatility over the next seven days. US President Trump, for one, hogged the airwaves – and he doesn’t seem like a happy camper. After the close of Monday’s North American session, President Trump fired the first broadside at his Chinese counterparts ahead of this week’s meeting at the G20, stating that he expected that his administration would go ahead with increased tariffs on Chinese goods come January 1 this year. Not only that, but he suggested that iPhones and other high-volume consumer goods could be included in the next round of tariffs, proclaiming consumers would be comfortable paying an extra 10 per cent on such items.
Trump and the Trade War: Okay – enough of the cheesy food metaphors (sorry, last one). What we were delivered in the last 24 hours is very important and establishes the firm possibility of spikes in volatility over the next seven days. US President Trump, for one, hogged the airwaves – and he doesn’t seem like a happy camper. After the close of Monday’s North American session, President Trump fired the first broadside at his Chinese counterparts ahead of this week’s meeting at the G20, stating that he expected that his administration would go ahead with increased tariffs on Chinese goods come January 1 this year. Not only that, but he suggested that iPhones and other high-volume consumer goods could be included in the next round of tariffs, proclaiming consumers would be comfortable paying an extra 10 per cent on such items.
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G20 summit; the return of liquidity; Brexit time running out - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
As far as summits for leaders of the world’s largest economies go – in other words, an already very important affair – the gathering in Argentina this coming Friday and Saturday is crucial.
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Brexit- could this threaten a UK-US trade deal? EMEA Brief 27 Nov
KatherineIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Trump reported that Brexit could potentially threaten a UK-US trade deal, leaving Britain unable to negotiate a free-trade agreement with the US
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US traders return - APAC brief 27 Nov
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
US traders return: It’s nice to be back to some normal programming. The big-wigs on Wall Street have returned to their desks and volumes across the market are looking far healthier. After last week’s sell-off and volatility, and well before the meaty part of trade this week, traders appear to have had their appetite for risk whetted. Only slightly, of course: there is an acute awareness that the next seven days will hurl up some major events and some significant uncertainty. However, the VIX is off its highs and below 20 once again, and riskier assets are feeling some love. There were patches of underperformance yesterday, naturally – our ASX200 happened to be one of them, along with Chinese indices – but as it applies to most the major indices, a healthy coat of green is covering the screen to kick-off the first 24 hours of the week’s trade.
Asian session: The tide turned during the Asian session, with no true impetus behind it. If anything, the fundamentals we received during Asia’s trade made for ugly viewing: Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI data was released, and that disappointed markets, adding to fears of slower global growth; while New Zealand Retail Sales figures put-in an abominable showing, printing flat quarter-on-quarter versus expectations of a 1.0 per cent expansion. They were non-stories, though, in the ultimate context of yesterday’s trade, as futures markets pushed-higher on pricing of a solid start to the week for equity markets. Some macro-excuses to buy stocks did arrive in the European session, when reports that Italian policy makers were reviewing their maligned budget filtered through markets, compounding the slight lift in confidence engendered by the weekend’s rubber-stamped Brexit deal.
Asian session: The tide turned during the Asian session, with no true impetus behind it. If anything, the fundamentals we received during Asia’s trade made for ugly viewing: Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI data was released, and that disappointed markets, adding to fears of slower global growth; while New Zealand Retail Sales figures put-in an abominable showing, printing flat quarter-on-quarter versus expectations of a 1.0 per cent expansion. They were non-stories, though, in the ultimate context of yesterday’s trade, as futures markets pushed-higher on pricing of a solid start to the week for equity markets. Some macro-excuses to buy stocks did arrive in the European session, when reports that Italian policy makers were reviewing their maligned budget filtered through markets, compounding the slight lift in confidence engendered by the weekend’s rubber-stamped Brexit deal.
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Brexit: European leaders approve withdrawal agreement - EMEA Brief 26 Nov
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
May will start her two-week campaign to sell her historic Brexit deal to MPs as EU leaders have agreed on the UK's Brexit deal during the summit held in Brussels over the weekend, outlining it is "the best and only deal possible".
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Main market drivers - APAC brief - 26 Nov
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The themes: Boy oh boy, are we facing a significant week. It promises to be a big one, with so many of the pressing macro-economic issues currently driving market activity set to dominate headlines. Given this is so, and the Thanksgiving hangover kept trade light on Friday, casting an eye ahead and speculating on what the next seven days may deliver the most valuable insights. The themes won’t be foreign to traders: we’ve got the US Federal Reserve and global interest rates, slower global growth, the US-China trade war, Brexit, and the crash in oil prices. The way each unfolds sets the foundations for markets not only in the crucial month of December, but also the start of 2019. Being so, it’s more than likely that whatever the developments in these stories, traders will be perusing the devils in the detail to infer as much they can from them, providing ample fuel for heightened and ongoing volatility.
The Fed and US rates: The US Federal Reserve remains the major and most powerful driver of financial market activity. The impact of the end of the easy money era is manifesting in markets the world over. The question has long been asked – for the most part of the last decade, in fact – what the effects will be of normalizing Fed policy. We are apparently beginning to get that answer. This Friday welcomes the release of FOMC Monetary Policy Minutes, and the core concern for traders is whether the Fed is showing further signs of burgeoning dovishness. Traders have interpreted the central bank’s recent discourse as reflecting a reduced willingness to keep to an aggressive rate hiking path, amid concerns that growth and inflation (the later a data-point that market participants will also receive this week) has possibly topped-out. It’s resulted in markets pricing-in a 73 per cent chance of a rate hike from the Fed in December; and pricing out all but one hike from the Fed in 2019.
The Fed and US rates: The US Federal Reserve remains the major and most powerful driver of financial market activity. The impact of the end of the easy money era is manifesting in markets the world over. The question has long been asked – for the most part of the last decade, in fact – what the effects will be of normalizing Fed policy. We are apparently beginning to get that answer. This Friday welcomes the release of FOMC Monetary Policy Minutes, and the core concern for traders is whether the Fed is showing further signs of burgeoning dovishness. Traders have interpreted the central bank’s recent discourse as reflecting a reduced willingness to keep to an aggressive rate hiking path, amid concerns that growth and inflation (the later a data-point that market participants will also receive this week) has possibly topped-out. It’s resulted in markets pricing-in a 73 per cent chance of a rate hike from the Fed in December; and pricing out all but one hike from the Fed in 2019.
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#IGCommodityChat: Oil
DanielaIG posted a blog entry in IG Community Blog,
What is the murky future of Oil?
Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following this week's chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following this week's chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
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D&G products removed on a number of Chinese major e-commerce sites- EMEA Brief 23rd Nov
KatherineIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Dolce and Gobbana tension rises as their goods are no longer available on a few Chinese e-commerce sites, including Taobao and JD. Com.
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