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Post in Gold & Silver in a LT rally
"I'm not sure with gold these days. It seems to be very range bound for months and months, as below. Seem to be a little towards a mid range so no real conviction bid or offer."
LIVE video at 1pm - #IGCommodityChat: Oil
Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following our previous chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
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Wyckoff Logic
Wyckoff accumulation - distribution simplified and "four market phases every trader should know".
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Post in Bitcoin - Price Behaviour
The crypto markets are seeing some serious volatility in the latter half of this month. What are your thoughts and do you agree with other Community members?

"This will go down in the annals alongside the Tulip Mania, South Sea bubble and of course the DotCom bubble and the subprime scandal and still to come perhaps the great housing market bubble..."
Fed Rate Reveal Promotes Stock Rally - EMEA Brief 29 Nov
Fed hints that that future interest rate rises may be lower than anticipated. Whilst Wall Street saw it's 5th biggest daily increase Asian stocks also gained as a result, the Nikkei saw a 0.9% increase whilst SoftBank rose over 3% and Nintendo a further 4%.

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Rate rises slowing - APAC bried 29 Nov
A game of chicken: Did Powell just blink? That’s how last night’s speech from the Fed chair is being interpreted. Debate has raged whether in the face of financial market turmoil, the Fed will be forced to cool its rate-hike rhetoric. Powell’s speech – and this is speculative – may have represented this. Gone was the talk of rates being “a long way” from neutral, and that rates may need to move “past (the) neutral” rate. Instead, it was replaced with the key comment interest rates are “just below” the neutral range, and that future rate hikes, as Fed Vice President Richard Clarida implored yesterday, will be “data dependant”. Perhaps we saw last night, in the tradition of many-a Fed Chair gone before, the latest incarnation of a “Fed-put” – that is, this time around, a “Powell-put”, which will underwrite financial market strength at the first sign of true-trouble.

Rates and bonds: The reactions in financial markets have been predictable, but assertive. US Fed fund futures suggest that traders have heard enough to justify pricing in an 80 per cent chance of a Fed-hike next month. But naturally, the shifting of expectations has been seen in the pricing for rate hikes in 2019. The Fed’s last dot-plots implied 3 hikes for next year – and markets got close to pricing the full three at stages only just over a month ago. We are now seeing just the one, and for some very dovish folk, even that’s too bullish. The short end of the US Treasury curve is manifesting the shift in sentiment: the benchmark 10 Year Treasury note is yielding 3.05 per cent currently, but the yield on interest rate sensitive 2 Year note has fallen back to 2.80 per cent, taking the spread between those two assets back to 25 basis points.
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Crude prices gain: are we close to the bottom? - EMEA Brief 28 Nov
Asian equities gained as investors weighed in comments from Federal Reserve officials and a possible breakthrough in US-China trade war. Shares in Hong Kong and China led the gains with the Hang Seng Index climbing 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.7%.
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Trump and the Trade War - APAC bried 28 Nov
A loaded menu: If this week in financial markets is a buffet of information, then yesterday’s session tasted like the entrée. The themes that were predicted to define this week’s trade all showed-up in one form or another, hinting at bigger things to come. US President Trump added heat to the trade war, then spiced up the Brexit debate; a speech from US Federal Reserve Vice President Richard Clarida had traders questioning how many Fed hike’s markets have baked-in; another day of plunging  oil prices stirred up fears regarding corporate credit; and overcooked tech-stocks fluctuated, with the key ingredient there the wobbles in Apple Inc.’s share price. The mixture of stories blended through the market is just a sample of what could be in store for the rest of the week, with traders now at the edge of their seat and hungry for more answers.

Trump and the Trade War: Okay – enough of the cheesy food metaphors (sorry, last one). What we were delivered in the last 24 hours is very important and establishes the firm possibility of spikes in volatility over the next seven days. US President Trump, for one, hogged the airwaves – and he doesn’t seem like a happy camper. After the close of Monday’s North American session, President Trump fired the first broadside at his Chinese counterparts ahead of this week’s meeting at the G20, stating that he expected that his administration would go ahead with increased tariffs on Chinese goods come January 1 this year. Not only that, but he suggested that iPhones and other high-volume consumer goods could be included in the next round of tariffs, proclaiming consumers would be comfortable paying an extra 10 per cent on such items.
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G20 summit; the return of liquidity; Brexit time running out - DailyFX Key Themes
As far as summits for leaders of the world’s largest economies go – in other words, an already very important affair – the gathering in Argentina this coming Friday and Saturday is crucial.
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Brexit- could this threaten a UK-US trade deal? EMEA Brief 27 Nov
Trump reported that Brexit could potentially threaten a UK-US trade deal, leaving Britain unable to negotiate a free-trade agreement with the US
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US traders return - APAC brief 27 Nov
US traders return: It’s nice to be back to some normal programming. The big-wigs on Wall Street have returned to their desks and volumes across the market are looking far healthier. After last week’s sell-off and volatility, and well before the meaty part of trade this week, traders appear to have had their appetite for risk whetted. Only slightly, of course: there is an acute awareness that the next seven days will hurl up some major events and some significant uncertainty. However, the VIX is off its highs and below 20 once again, and riskier assets are feeling some love. There were patches of underperformance yesterday, naturally – our ASX200 happened to be one of them, along with Chinese indices – but as it applies to most the major indices, a healthy coat of green is covering the screen to kick-off the first 24 hours of the week’s trade.


Asian session: The tide turned during the Asian session, with no true impetus behind it. If anything, the fundamentals we received during Asia’s trade made for ugly viewing: Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI data was released, and that disappointed markets, adding to fears of slower global growth; while New Zealand Retail Sales figures put-in an abominable showing, printing flat quarter-on-quarter versus expectations of a 1.0 per cent expansion. They were non-stories, though, in the ultimate context of yesterday’s trade, as futures markets pushed-higher on pricing of a solid start to the week for equity markets. Some macro-excuses to buy stocks did arrive in the European session, when reports that Italian policy makers were reviewing their maligned budget filtered through markets, compounding the slight lift in confidence engendered by the weekend’s rubber-stamped Brexit deal.
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Brexit: European leaders approve withdrawal agreement - EMEA Brief 26 Nov
May will start her two-week campaign to sell her historic Brexit deal to MPs as EU leaders have agreed on the UK's Brexit deal during the summit held in Brussels over the weekend, outlining it is "the best and only deal possible".
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Main market drivers - APAC brief - 26 Nov
The themes: Boy oh boy, are we facing a significant week. It promises to be a big one, with so many of the pressing macro-economic issues currently driving market activity set to dominate headlines. Given this is so, and the Thanksgiving hangover kept trade light on Friday, casting an eye ahead and speculating on what the next seven days may deliver the most valuable insights. The themes won’t be foreign to traders: we’ve got the US Federal Reserve and global interest rates, slower global growth, the US-China trade war, Brexit, and the crash in oil prices. The way each unfolds sets the foundations for markets not only in the crucial month of December, but also the start of 2019. Being so, it’s more than likely that whatever the developments in these stories, traders will be perusing the devils in the detail to infer as much they can from them, providing ample fuel for heightened and ongoing volatility.

The Fed and US rates: The US Federal Reserve remains the major and most powerful driver of financial market activity. The impact of the end of the easy money era is manifesting in markets the world over. The question has long been asked – for the most part of the last decade, in fact – what the effects will be of normalizing Fed policy. We are apparently beginning to get that answer. This Friday welcomes the release of FOMC Monetary Policy Minutes, and the core concern for traders is whether the Fed is showing further signs of burgeoning dovishness. Traders have interpreted the central bank’s recent discourse as reflecting a reduced willingness to keep to an aggressive rate hiking path, amid concerns that growth and inflation (the later a data-point that market participants will also receive this week) has possibly topped-out. It’s resulted in markets pricing-in a 73 per cent chance of a rate hike from the Fed in December; and pricing out all but one hike from the Fed in 2019.
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#IGCommodityChat: Oil
What is the murky future of Oil?

Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following this week's chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
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D&G products removed on a number of Chinese major e-commerce sites- EMEA Brief 23rd Nov
Dolce and Gobbana tension rises as their goods are no longer available on a few Chinese e-commerce sites, including Taobao and JD. Com. 
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Markets on Thanksgiving - 23 Nov
Time to give thanks: It’s Thanks Giving in the US, so US traders are away from their desks and equity markets in the country are offline. Perhaps it’s something the bulls can be thankful for: the holiday has resulted in very thin volumes across the globe, giving a subsequent ability to take pause from the unfolding market rout. There is so much information awaiting market participants coming into the end of November and start of December, so surely the opportunity to distract oneself for now by gorging on roast turkey and a few beverages of choice is being welcomed by our American cousins. Presumably, little can fix for too long the underlying anxiety caused by the myriad of fundamental concerns plaguing investors. But that’s next week’s problem, for now – better that we take stock while the American punters sift around for reasons to give thanks.

Global equities: To capture a theme from last night’s trade: it was – for all intents and purposes – about Brexit. Before delving into that one, let’s take a check on the price action. European equities were down across the board. The volumes for the continent were, as has been touched on, remarkably thin, except for the FTSE, which was down 1.28 per cent on the unfolding Brexit drama. The DAX clocked in a loss of 0.94 per cent for the day, unable to grasp the lead from the Asian region’s mixed but respectable trading day, which saw the Nikkei up 0.65 per cent and the Hang Seng up 0.18 per cent, but the CSI300 down 0.37 per cent. In our local session, the ASX200 was another index that bucked the trend of low activity, continuing its bounce off support around 5600 to close 0.86 per cent higher on volumes 10 per cent above the 100-day average.

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#IGCommodityChat: Gold
We’re sitting down with professional investor Simon Popple and Ross Normal, CEO of Sharps Pixley, to discuss what the future might be for gold markets, and giving you the chance to ask him questions as part of a live Q&A.
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Gold recovers amidst fears over a weakening dollar - EMEA Brief 22 Nov
After yesterday´s meeting in Brussels, Theresa May said “both sides have given sufficient direction” and she will meet Jean-Claude Juncker again on Saturday “to discuss how we can bring to a conclusion this process and bring it to a conclusion in the interest for all our people”, indicating that a final deal is likely to come very soon.

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Overnight bounce - APAC brief 22 Nov
Overnight bounce: A bounce in equities has finally arrived, unwinding some of the week’s heavy losses. As it currently stands, the NASDAQ – ground zero for much of the recent market correction – is leading the pack, up 1-and-a-half per cent for the day, followed by the S&P, which is up 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones, which is up 0.65 per cent. Volumes are down generally speaking, so the recovery today lacks bite – though the Thanksgiving holiday in the US may somewhat be behind this, meaning an apparent lack of conviction in this relief rally could be explained away. Meaningful price action in other areas of the market that gives a solid read on the current psychology of traders is absent: US Treasuries have been comparatively inactive, with yields remaining contained across the curve, and the US Dollar is slightly lower, without demonstrating remarkable activity itself.


Risk assets: Certain assets have benefitted from the lull in panic-selling. To preface: the VIX has receded to a reading of 20, from highs around 23 yesterday. In currency land, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, as risk proxies, have ticked higher to 0.7265 and 0.6795. Obviously, the reduced anxiety amongst traders has meant the converse is true for haven currencies like the Japanese Yen, which is trading above 113 today. The Euro and Pound remain in the 1.13 and 1.27 handle respectively, most unmoved by the day’s sentiment. While credit spreads, which have blown out recently as risk-sentiment evaporated, have finally come-in. To counter the notion of complete risk-off: Gold has caught a bid, to trade at $US1227, or thereabouts, with its rally attributable largely to a modestly weaker greenback.
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Global Markets Retreat as Tech Rout Spreads - EMEA Brief 21 Nov
FAANG stocks have now shed more than $1 trillion in market value since recent highs, whilst Target leads the fall in retail as its shares dropped 10.5% yesterday after posting worse than expected earnings figures.
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APAC brief - 21 Nov
I see red: The global equity rout continued last night, and out to the furthest horizons it was a sea of red. There was very little reprieve no matter where one spun the globe. The Asian session saw China's equity bounce faded again, joining the suffering experienced by the Nikkei, Hang Seng and ASX200; European indices continued their orderly decline, underpinned by a 1.6 per cent drop in the DAX and a 0.76 per cent fall in the FTSE 100; and with less than an hour to trade, Wall Street is clocking losses, led by the Dow Jones, of as much as 2 per cent. The themes aren't wildly different from before, it's just now the story is being read (and bought-into) by a growing mass of traders: global growth is late-cycle, earnings have peaked, and tighter financial conditions means there's no hiding from the risks.


Seeking shelter: Not that market participants aren't searching for places to hide. The problem is, it would seem, that there aren't too many good places to find shelter. The classic safe-havens were given a good crack overnight: US Treasuries were sought out, giving the US Dollar a boost after several days of declines. Yields on US Treasuries were steady; however, this appears more a function of the residual need to maintain pricing of interest rate expectations. Gold was slightly lower because of the stronger USD alone, as was the EUR/USD, which traded into the 113-handle again, and the Pound, which dropped into the 1.27 handle. Even the Japanese Yen dropped slightly as traders scurried around, though it must be said it is far-off its recent lows.

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Nissan Shares fall along with Chairman - EMEA Brief 20 Nov
Nissan shares fell more than 5% following Chairman Carlos Ghosn being placed under arrest for allegedly violating Japanese financial law
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Risk factors - APAC brief 20 Nov
Risk? No, thanks: Markets have given a resounding “nope” to all varieties of risk overnight. Equities have been slogged on Wall Street, following to a sluggish day in European markets, that saw the FTSE drop 0.2 per cent and the DAX shed 0.85 per cent. Here it looks like this is the convergence punters have been calling: US shares are playing a rapid catch-up with their global counterparts. The losses are piling up. The NASDAQ has been hit the worst in the North American session led by falls in FANG stocks. At time of writing, with about half an hour left in the session, the losses for that index are hovering around 3.00 per cent. That’s not to say the picture is any prettier for the other major US indices: The S&P500 is down just-shy of 2 per cent, and the Dow Jones is much the same.

The havens: Typically, US Treasuries have maintained their bid. The yield on US 10 Year Treasuries has dipped to 3.05 per cent, while the yield on US 2 Year note has fallen further, down 3 points to 2.77 per cent. The markets are scrambling for safety once more as volatility spikes again: the VIX is up to about 21, and that is ample reason for investors to bail-out of equities. The US Dollar is suffering from the drop-in yields, and the Japanese Yen is accepting the safe-haven bid, along with the EUR, which is eyeing off 115 again, supported by (slightly) diminished anxiety around the Italian fiscal crisis. Of course, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand have pulled back, trading at 0.7290 and 0.6840, respectively, although it must be mentioned that commodity prices are holding well enough.
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Where to find overnight funding charges on FX pairs
When trading currency pairs, if a position is held through 10pm, it will incur an overnight funding charge. This charge is based on the interest rate differential between the two currencies in the pair, where you receive interest in the currency you buy and pay interest on the currency you sell. Swap rates also apply to cryptocurrencies and spot gold, silver, platinum or palladium.
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China-US Relationship Deteriorates after APEC Summit; May continues her Brexit Battle - EMEA Brief 19 Nov
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit ended on Sunday with leaders failing to agree on a formal joint statement for the first time in its 25-year history, due to disagreements on trade. Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to gain influence in the Pacific as Trump and Putin decided not to attend the summit, however Xi left disappointed as the US and allies made it clear that they are prepared to use economic and military means to counter China's influence.
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