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Brexit: European leaders approve withdrawal agreement - EMEA Brief 26 Nov
May will start her two-week campaign to sell her historic Brexit deal to MPs as EU leaders have agreed on the UK's Brexit deal during the summit held in Brussels over the weekend, outlining it is "the best and only deal possible".
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Main market drivers - APAC brief - 26 Nov
The themes: Boy oh boy, are we facing a significant week. It promises to be a big one, with so many of the pressing macro-economic issues currently driving market activity set to dominate headlines. Given this is so, and the Thanksgiving hangover kept trade light on Friday, casting an eye ahead and speculating on what the next seven days may deliver the most valuable insights. The themes won’t be foreign to traders: we’ve got the US Federal Reserve and global interest rates, slower global growth, the US-China trade war, Brexit, and the crash in oil prices. The way each unfolds sets the foundations for markets not only in the crucial month of December, but also the start of 2019. Being so, it’s more than likely that whatever the developments in these stories, traders will be perusing the devils in the detail to infer as much they can from them, providing ample fuel for heightened and ongoing volatility.

The Fed and US rates: The US Federal Reserve remains the major and most powerful driver of financial market activity. The impact of the end of the easy money era is manifesting in markets the world over. The question has long been asked – for the most part of the last decade, in fact – what the effects will be of normalizing Fed policy. We are apparently beginning to get that answer. This Friday welcomes the release of FOMC Monetary Policy Minutes, and the core concern for traders is whether the Fed is showing further signs of burgeoning dovishness. Traders have interpreted the central bank’s recent discourse as reflecting a reduced willingness to keep to an aggressive rate hiking path, amid concerns that growth and inflation (the later a data-point that market participants will also receive this week) has possibly topped-out. It’s resulted in markets pricing-in a 73 per cent chance of a rate hike from the Fed in December; and pricing out all but one hike from the Fed in 2019.
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#IGCommodityChat: Oil
What is the murky future of Oil?

Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following this week's chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
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D&G products removed on a number of Chinese major e-commerce sites- EMEA Brief 23rd Nov
Dolce and Gobbana tension rises as their goods are no longer available on a few Chinese e-commerce sites, including Taobao and JD. Com. 
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Markets on Thanksgiving - 23 Nov
Time to give thanks: It’s Thanks Giving in the US, so US traders are away from their desks and equity markets in the country are offline. Perhaps it’s something the bulls can be thankful for: the holiday has resulted in very thin volumes across the globe, giving a subsequent ability to take pause from the unfolding market rout. There is so much information awaiting market participants coming into the end of November and start of December, so surely the opportunity to distract oneself for now by gorging on roast turkey and a few beverages of choice is being welcomed by our American cousins. Presumably, little can fix for too long the underlying anxiety caused by the myriad of fundamental concerns plaguing investors. But that’s next week’s problem, for now – better that we take stock while the American punters sift around for reasons to give thanks.

Global equities: To capture a theme from last night’s trade: it was – for all intents and purposes – about Brexit. Before delving into that one, let’s take a check on the price action. European equities were down across the board. The volumes for the continent were, as has been touched on, remarkably thin, except for the FTSE, which was down 1.28 per cent on the unfolding Brexit drama. The DAX clocked in a loss of 0.94 per cent for the day, unable to grasp the lead from the Asian region’s mixed but respectable trading day, which saw the Nikkei up 0.65 per cent and the Hang Seng up 0.18 per cent, but the CSI300 down 0.37 per cent. In our local session, the ASX200 was another index that bucked the trend of low activity, continuing its bounce off support around 5600 to close 0.86 per cent higher on volumes 10 per cent above the 100-day average.

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#IGCommodityChat: Gold
We’re sitting down with professional investor Simon Popple and Ross Normal, CEO of Sharps Pixley, to discuss what the future might be for gold markets, and giving you the chance to ask him questions as part of a live Q&A.
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Gold recovers amidst fears over a weakening dollar - EMEA Brief 22 Nov
After yesterday´s meeting in Brussels, Theresa May said “both sides have given sufficient direction” and she will meet Jean-Claude Juncker again on Saturday “to discuss how we can bring to a conclusion this process and bring it to a conclusion in the interest for all our people”, indicating that a final deal is likely to come very soon.

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Overnight bounce - APAC brief 22 Nov
Overnight bounce: A bounce in equities has finally arrived, unwinding some of the week’s heavy losses. As it currently stands, the NASDAQ – ground zero for much of the recent market correction – is leading the pack, up 1-and-a-half per cent for the day, followed by the S&P, which is up 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones, which is up 0.65 per cent. Volumes are down generally speaking, so the recovery today lacks bite – though the Thanksgiving holiday in the US may somewhat be behind this, meaning an apparent lack of conviction in this relief rally could be explained away. Meaningful price action in other areas of the market that gives a solid read on the current psychology of traders is absent: US Treasuries have been comparatively inactive, with yields remaining contained across the curve, and the US Dollar is slightly lower, without demonstrating remarkable activity itself.


Risk assets: Certain assets have benefitted from the lull in panic-selling. To preface: the VIX has receded to a reading of 20, from highs around 23 yesterday. In currency land, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, as risk proxies, have ticked higher to 0.7265 and 0.6795. Obviously, the reduced anxiety amongst traders has meant the converse is true for haven currencies like the Japanese Yen, which is trading above 113 today. The Euro and Pound remain in the 1.13 and 1.27 handle respectively, most unmoved by the day’s sentiment. While credit spreads, which have blown out recently as risk-sentiment evaporated, have finally come-in. To counter the notion of complete risk-off: Gold has caught a bid, to trade at $US1227, or thereabouts, with its rally attributable largely to a modestly weaker greenback.
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Global Markets Retreat as Tech Rout Spreads - EMEA Brief 21 Nov
FAANG stocks have now shed more than $1 trillion in market value since recent highs, whilst Target leads the fall in retail as its shares dropped 10.5% yesterday after posting worse than expected earnings figures.
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APAC brief - 21 Nov
I see red: The global equity rout continued last night, and out to the furthest horizons it was a sea of red. There was very little reprieve no matter where one spun the globe. The Asian session saw China's equity bounce faded again, joining the suffering experienced by the Nikkei, Hang Seng and ASX200; European indices continued their orderly decline, underpinned by a 1.6 per cent drop in the DAX and a 0.76 per cent fall in the FTSE 100; and with less than an hour to trade, Wall Street is clocking losses, led by the Dow Jones, of as much as 2 per cent. The themes aren't wildly different from before, it's just now the story is being read (and bought-into) by a growing mass of traders: global growth is late-cycle, earnings have peaked, and tighter financial conditions means there's no hiding from the risks.


Seeking shelter: Not that market participants aren't searching for places to hide. The problem is, it would seem, that there aren't too many good places to find shelter. The classic safe-havens were given a good crack overnight: US Treasuries were sought out, giving the US Dollar a boost after several days of declines. Yields on US Treasuries were steady; however, this appears more a function of the residual need to maintain pricing of interest rate expectations. Gold was slightly lower because of the stronger USD alone, as was the EUR/USD, which traded into the 113-handle again, and the Pound, which dropped into the 1.27 handle. Even the Japanese Yen dropped slightly as traders scurried around, though it must be said it is far-off its recent lows.

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Nissan Shares fall along with Chairman - EMEA Brief 20 Nov
Nissan shares fell more than 5% following Chairman Carlos Ghosn being placed under arrest for allegedly violating Japanese financial law
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Risk factors - APAC brief 20 Nov
Risk? No, thanks: Markets have given a resounding “nope” to all varieties of risk overnight. Equities have been slogged on Wall Street, following to a sluggish day in European markets, that saw the FTSE drop 0.2 per cent and the DAX shed 0.85 per cent. Here it looks like this is the convergence punters have been calling: US shares are playing a rapid catch-up with their global counterparts. The losses are piling up. The NASDAQ has been hit the worst in the North American session led by falls in FANG stocks. At time of writing, with about half an hour left in the session, the losses for that index are hovering around 3.00 per cent. That’s not to say the picture is any prettier for the other major US indices: The S&P500 is down just-shy of 2 per cent, and the Dow Jones is much the same.

The havens: Typically, US Treasuries have maintained their bid. The yield on US 10 Year Treasuries has dipped to 3.05 per cent, while the yield on US 2 Year note has fallen further, down 3 points to 2.77 per cent. The markets are scrambling for safety once more as volatility spikes again: the VIX is up to about 21, and that is ample reason for investors to bail-out of equities. The US Dollar is suffering from the drop-in yields, and the Japanese Yen is accepting the safe-haven bid, along with the EUR, which is eyeing off 115 again, supported by (slightly) diminished anxiety around the Italian fiscal crisis. Of course, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand have pulled back, trading at 0.7290 and 0.6840, respectively, although it must be mentioned that commodity prices are holding well enough.
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Where to find overnight funding charges on FX pairs
When trading currency pairs, if a position is held through 10pm, it will incur an overnight funding charge. This charge is based on the interest rate differential between the two currencies in the pair, where you receive interest in the currency you buy and pay interest on the currency you sell. Swap rates also apply to cryptocurrencies and spot gold, silver, platinum or palladium.
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China-US Relationship Deteriorates after APEC Summit; May continues her Brexit Battle - EMEA Brief 19 Nov
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit ended on Sunday with leaders failing to agree on a formal joint statement for the first time in its 25-year history, due to disagreements on trade. Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to gain influence in the Pacific as Trump and Putin decided not to attend the summit, however Xi left disappointed as the US and allies made it clear that they are prepared to use economic and military means to counter China's influence.
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Weaker sentiment - APAC brief 19 Nov
Weaker sentiment: Risk aversion continues to plague global markets. Despite some positive developments on Friday regarding the US-China Trade War and US Federal Reserve policy, confidence appears to be lowly, resulting in a general flight to safety. It was telling that the NASDAQ couldn't close higher along with the Dow Jones and S&P500 on Friday: the desire to jump into growth stocks keeps diminishing in this market. It raises the risk that market participants have internalised the idea that now is not the time to be chasing capital gains in high-multiple shares. The momentum chasers are being unquestionably washed out of the market, with punters changing strategy from one of "buy the dips" to "sell the rally".

Missing conviction: It can be at these points in which moves to the downside are exaggerated because of an overall bearish bias. Assessing volumes are a terrific indicator of this, and currently and on balance, the days when Wall Street closes higher has generally coincided with days when volumes are relatively thin. The dynamic implies a lack of conviction from the buyers and sets up opportunities for aggressive sellers to profit from rallies in the market. The ASX200 demonstrated this well on Friday, where after a rather volatile week that ended with the index closing 0.10 per cent lower, intraday rallies in Aussie shares were flimsy and quite fleeting, revealing a tangible unwillingness by traders to take long positions in this market.
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May Battles for Brexit Agreement and  Party Backing - EMEA Brief 16 Nov
Theresa May continues to back her Brexit deal despite deep divisions in her party, 16 members of which have openly called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister
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Brexit break-down: APAC brief - 16 Nov
Brexit break-down: The headlines in financial markets are mostly Brexit related. What was suspected has become so: Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal with the European Union has fallen by the wayside, potentially (if not, likely) rendering it mute. 24 hours is of course a long time in markets, and this time yesterday optimism was blossoming about a potential Brexit deal to end the years of debate and gridlock. The harsh reality has now bitten though, and the brutal realpolitik has subverted that narrative: Dominic Raab – the UK’s key Brexit negotiator – has resigned from Prime Minister May’s cabinet, amounting to a no-confidence motion in the Prime Minister and her deal. It’s curious still as to what Raab’s motives are: he was in the room with Prime Minister May negotiating the deal with the Europeans. Nevertheless, he has pulled his support, and it’s now believed the castle is about to fall.

Pound plunges: There was volatility in markets in response to the shock news, however it was mostly contained to Pound. The Cable plunged from the 1.30 handle to trade below 1.2750, in what amounts to its largest intra-day move in over a year, as yields on UK Gilts plunged on back of unwinding bets of more BOE rate hikes. Continental stock indices lost ground, with the DAX shedding 0.5 per cent for the day; however, the plunge in the Pound, coupled with more stable oil and commodity prices overnight, helped the FTSE100 close flat for the day. It’s a very premature call, but futures markets are pointing to a more stable day for European equity markets when they come on line in 10 hours-time, revealing that though Brexit is a massive social, cultural and political issue, for market participants, at least for the time being, it’s more a nuisance than a major concern.
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Post in THE GREAT BEAR IS UPON US
"Reading a very interesting part of the FT which I thought I would share. 5 things to watch for to predict a downwards movement, bear market, or economic crash."
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Christmas Rally 2018 thread WIP
"I thought I’d kick off early and knock up a quick thread for the infamous Christmas rally. Especially with the markets having sold off very recently (on 26 Oct the FTSE 100 saw a low of  around 6,854 there is some argument for entering a starting stake soonish, to take advantage of the low spot, and adding to that if the markets look favourable or closing it out if the volatility persists."
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Brexit speech to be announced to Parliament- EMEA Brief 15th Nov
Brexit draft has been backed up by the cabinet where Theresa May will announce a speech on Thursday to the Parliament, however, there are assumptions that this could end with a vote of no confidence 
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Global market landscape - APAC brief 15 Nov
The global market landscape: November’s gains, as modest as they were, have been snatched it would seem, across Wall Street indices and Australia’s ASX200. The bloodletting has been profuse once more this week, and it seems that diminishing number of momentum chasers have had handed to them another dose of market reality. To be fair, this latest round of selling has been precipitated by a new risk: tumbling oil prices. The price of the black stuff bounced overnight, but this was of course only after a considerable plunge that sent prices into a technical bear market. Energy stocks have been pummelled, and its sparked concerns that debt instruments secured to oil held by many corporates are at a materially higher risk of default. That’s turned a commodity problem into a real-financial problem.

US markets: That’s what has manifested in markets overnight. Credit spreads on US investment grade credit have blown out again, compounding the existing concerns relating to the effects Fed tightening will have on (deteriorating) liquidity conditions. The 3-month Libor rate for one, despite relatively lower volatility since the end of October, has continued to march higher, further stifling financial conditions. The assumed affect this dynamic will have on global credit availability has hit financial stocks, and those areas of the market considered highly leveraged – like US tech – driving a remarkably synchronized sell-off across Wall Street Indices last night. At time of writing, the Dow Jones, S&P500 and NASDAQ have pared losses for the session, leading into the final moments of trade, but this turnaround only occurred after an announcement by UK Prime Minister Theresa May she has cabinet support for her Brexit deal.
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MT4 Indicators
"Thought I'd start a thread on the deep and mysterious world of MT4 indicators starting with MTFs. MuiltiTimeFrame indicators are popular on MT4 and a great tool not just for keeping in touch with the higher time frames on the one chart but also to help time entries and exits and staying in trends. The indicator itself has an adjustable time frame setting allowing the current time frame to be adjusted to any higher mt4 time frame so you can either use 1 to flick through time frames or have more than 1 permanently set."
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Post in Crude Oil (WTI)
"Again agree @Caseynotes, it is interesting that the direction of this thread was teed up by @PandaFace asking about a potential Long set up and then @TrendFollower pushing a Short idea.  Hopefully PF took a pass, I think he said he did, if so score 1 for the value of the Forum when discussing actual trading ideas (we need to do more of this!  Don't be shy, just ask the question."
Cabinet summoned to Westminster as draft Brexit deal reached - EMEA Brief 14 Nov
Theresa May faces a crucial cabinet meeting today at 14:00 UK time as she seeks support from senior ministers for her draft Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.
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Fleeting relief - APAC brief 14 Nov
Fleeting relief: The Chinese and Americans are talking again; and the UK and European Union are nearing a deal. Those are the two stories that have turned the dour sentiment that characterized the first trading day of the week into something resembling optimism. Perhaps it’s another relief rally – every time the world doesn’t end we get one of those. Like when US mid-terms passed with few surprises, things going as they ought to engender nice feelings in the guts of traders. And not unjustifiably, either: the trade war and Brexit have become the two biggest bugbears in developed markets. In fact, 2018 may well be remembered in financial market history as the year the three biggest economic blocs’ almost tore one another apart – well that, and the very significant turn in US Fed monetary policy, of course.

Is this the turning point? If this sounds all a little grand, that’s because it is; and it is why although the headlines read well this morning, the text of the story is one that we’ve read before. Could this time be different? Quite possibly. The steps taken by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin to re-engage in talks is a considerable step forward, ahead of what is a planned meeting between the two nation’s Presidents, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the sidelines of this month’s G20. And the news that UK Prime Minister May has effectively secured a deal with her European Counterparts – one that includes an Anglo-friendly outcome on the Irish border, it’s been reported – bares the signs that (at the very least) the British and Europeans are on the same page.
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