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ProRealTime Automated Strategy Email Notifications
I just wanted to update you on a great new feature which has been implemented on the back of client feedback! For all ProOrder automated trading users of ProRealTime, you can now have an email automatically sent whenever your trading strategy is stopped (for any reason), or is due to expire in x days. Read on to find out more!
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UK GDP today - EMEA brief 10 August
Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower, as trade fears continue to impact market sentiment. Japanese markets where the biggest loser over the session, with a big outperformance in the Q2 GDP figure (0.5% from -0.2%) paving the way for a push higher for the Yen. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble and Turkish lira continue to fall amid strained relationships with the US and political concerns.

Looking ahead, GDP remains a focus, with the UK figures to watch out for. Given the new monthly growth readings, watch for that figure alongside the wider quarterly one. With UK manufacturing production, trade balance, and industrial production also being released, it is likely that the pound is set for a volatile morning. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Canadian jobs data alongside the US CPI inflation reading.
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Bitcoin longer term - maybe 500MA?
I've been reading a few posts on this and thought I may as well as my two cents rather than just tacking on to other peoples opinions and statements. Put simply I hope to lay out a couple of simple reasons why I think bitcoin and crypto will go up in the longer term time frame. This has nothing to do with 'believing in' the asset, more that it's just worth having a position when you think of the underlying market plumbing.

Bitcoin will go up for the following reasons: inelasticity, thin liquidity, human behavior, bitcoin halving event, and 'ETF city'. I've gone into more detail below.
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Post in Turkish lira really having a hard time
Keep up to date with movements in the FX market as one of our FX / Flow dealers, Ludwik, updates on significant news events. The latest today? USDTRY: "TURKISH LIRA DROPS 13.5% TO 6.30 VERSUS THE DOLLAR - will post more when possible, be careful- huge vol. spike this AM"
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Trader's View - APAC brief 10 Aug
In what was a slightly disappointing climax to the day, the ASX200 failed to close about 6300, indicating some reservations amongst investors about yesterday’s move. It isn’t the first time that the local market has failed to hold above that level, raising questions about the substance beneath these sorts of moves higher.

So far, reporting season has delivered some respectable results, which — assuming if it continues — will give impetus for pushes higher. However, considering the vulnerability in bank stocks owing to tightening funding costs and slow credit growth, coupled with flatness in the materials space due to softer commodity prices and trade war fears, a sustainable move higher in the index must questioned and approached carefully.
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Oil slips 3% - EMEA brief 9 August
Asian stocks were largely higher, with Japanese indices providing the one outlier amid a wider rally led by rampant upside for Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. One major drag has been energy stocks, coming off the back of a 3% fall in crude prices yesterday. The New Zealand dollar fell sharply, after the RBNZ governor set out a timetable which saw rate remain at rock-bottom levels into 2020. Elsewhere, Chinese CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, with CPI in particular rising from 1.9% to 2.1%.

Looking ahead, the data remains relatively thin on the ground, with US PPIP and unemployment claims providing the only highlights. Earnings-wise, keep an eye out for figures from the likes of Macy's, Viacom, and News Corp.
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Trader's View - APAC brief 9 Aug
Geopolitical ructions became the dominant theme late in North American trade, setting up a day for Asian markets distracted by trade-war developments and rising diplomatic tensions in other geographies. The heightened trade war anxieties were piqued by news that China would be slapping retaliatory tariffs of 25 per cent on $US16b worth of US imports, in response to the Trump administrations go-ahead earlier in the week to implement comparable tariffs on Chinese imports.

The trade concerns were then exacerbated by news that the US would increase sanctions on Russia for its involvement in poisoning an ex-Spy in the UK. Both stories are fresh but add to already tense diplomatic relations between the US and China, and the US and Russia: expect the news to rattle Asian and European markets, which have proven far more vulnerable to geopolitical risks.
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Tesla privatisation and what it means for my IG positions
The helpdesk has had a number of questions relating to Tesla and the tweets last night from Musk. We have a few answers and continued discussion on the IG Community forum which leads from the following question: "As a UK-based investor, I have a number of Tesla shares in my ISA portfolio. If Tesla were to succeed in their bid to go private, I would like to keep the majority, if not all, of that stake as Elon Musk has suggested Tesla would not only make that possible, but actually encourage."
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Tweets boost Tesla - EMEA brief 8 August
Earnings solid coming from the US continues to push futures up overnight. Oil prices held steady, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran. Elon Musk tweeted last night regarding taking Tesla private. Stock up as he quoted a $420 price target. Today there’s a 39.1 point FTSE div (updated from 39.0 on the dividend adjustment post) and a 25.8 Dow div.

UK earnings from key firms such as Prudential, Glencore, and G4S help to offset a lighter macro calendar, although we do have a speech from FOMC member Barkin, plus weekly crude inventories and a New Zealand rate decision.
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GBP 11 month lows - EMEA brief 7 August
Whilst GBP has slipped to its lowest level in 11 months on Brexit ‘no deal’ fears, Asian markets were largely in the green overnight, coming off the back of a US session which saw the Dow within touching distance of record highs. Interestingly, Chinese stocks were the main outperformer, with fears over their trade war with the US dissipating for now. The buying is however supported by below average volumes today questioning the sustainability thereof. The one outlier came from Australia, with the ASX 200 in the red despite the RBA deciding to retain their historically low monetary policy stance. Elsewhere, crude prices rose, with the imposition of fresh sanctions on Iran raising rumours that they would seek to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. 

Looking ahead, there are few events of note worth watching out for, with much of the eurozone data already released from Germany earlier this morning. Coming off the back of yesterday’s weak German factory orders number, this morning has seen a greater deterioration in German Industrial production and trade surplus than expected, in a clear response to the breakdown of trade with the US. Elsewhere, look out for the UK Halifax House Price Index (HPI) and Canadian Ivey PMI releases as the only events of interest. The corporate calendar is a little more interesting, with Walt Disney and Snap earnings due out later today.
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Trade Wars Re-upped, A Dollar Run and Apple's $1 Tln Market Cap - DailyFX Key Themes
US-China trade war moving beyond boundaries.The next major leg of a broader dollar trend? Apple passes $1 trillion valuation and calls attention to where value is being assigned. These are the three key themes for DFX this week, as reported by John Kicklighter.
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Dividend Adjustments 6 Aug - 10 Aug
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 6 Aug 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
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German factory and PMI - EMEA brief 6 August
A mixed affair overnight saw Australian and Hong Kong stocks shrug off fears of a deepening trade war between the US and China, while Japanese and Chinese indices traded in the red at the end of the session. Rhetoric within the two sides stepped up once more, with China threatening a retaliatory set of tariffs on $60 billion of US exports. One of the key reasons for the strength in Australian indices was the gains we have seen in Iron Ore overnight, with the likes of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both enjoying a positive session. Asian equity markets are trading firmer this morning, although China's Shanghai Composite trades 1.3% lower and the Nikkei flat. In retaliation to Trump's tariff retorts, China has said that it is ready for a "protracted war" in the wake of what they believe to be unreasonable demands from the US.

Looking ahead, there are precious few economic events of note, with the German factory orders deterioration (-4% from 2.6%) already seen this morning providing one of the only releases of interest. Also keep an eye out for the Sentix investor confidence figure for the eurozone. A similar story for the US session, with a Canadian bank holiday adding to the calm of the day.
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Apple $1,000,000,000,000 - EMEA brief 3 August
Trade fears continue to dominate in Asia, with the Chinese markets leading the losses as markets prepare for a potential raft of tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the US. Apple hit $1 trillion market cap yesterday, with the news boosting stocks across many of the region. However, that tech boost failed to translate through to the Asian session. Data-wise, Australian retail sales remained stable at 0.4%, despite expectations of a slight decline. We also saw the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI fall to 52.8 from 53.9.

Looking ahead, today sees the heavy hitters come out on the economic front, with the UK services PMI reading due to bring substantial speculation over the UK economy’s largest sector. This will also have a knock-on effect upon GDP expectations. This PMI theme also carries into the US session, where the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading comes out for the US economy. However, the biggest event of the day comes in the form of the US jobs report, with markets expecting to see payrolls move slightly lower and earnings to tick higher. On the corporate calendar, watch out for earnings reports from the likes of Berkshire Hathaway, and Kraft Heinz to close out the week.
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BoE Super Thursday - EMEA brief 2 Aug
Looking ahead, the UK PMI focus continues, with the construction sector under the microscope in the morning. That UK theme continues at midday, with the Bank of England widely expected to raise rates for the first time this year. A relatively quiet US session means that there will be a greater focus on wider economic issues and corporate earnings reports. With Caterpillar, Apple, and Tesla all out of the way, today sees reports from the likes of GoPro, Kellogg, and AIG.
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BoE interest rate decision 2nd August
Join the IG discussion: "This is it. We’re looking at a near 80% odd expectation of a rate rise despite many thinking that it may not be the best course of action in the long run. What are people’s expectations of the August rate hike? Likely to happen for good reason, or really for the BoE MPC to save face? Continued slow rate rises are needed I’m sure... but does the data support it? 

Second rate rise in 10 odd years. One thing’s for sure the banks are going to make bank (pun intended) if this comes through. Could be worth getting on the sector ETFs and short term stock swings. Steeper futures curve, better profitability on consumer debt / mortgages etc, whilst not as much of a pay out on banking interest, and latency in clients switching to bigger and better bank accounts."
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FOMC today - EMEA brief 1 August
Looking ahead, the beginning of a new month brings the usual trio of UK PMI readings, with the manufacturing figure kicking things off today. There are a host of eurozone PMI surveys, but for the most part they are revisions rather than the preliminary reading in the UK.

That PMI theme will carry into the US session, with the Canadian and US ISM manufacturing PMI surveys released later on. We also see the first of the major data points from the US, with the ADP payrolls figure ahead of this evening’s FOMC meeting. Crude markets will also expect volatility, with the release of the US crude inventories data earlier on in the afternoon. On the corporate front, all eyes will be on Tesla as Elon Musk hopes to prove the firm can be profitable going forward.
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BoJ maintains policy - EMEA brief 31 July
Following on from yet another bearish session in the US, we are seeing continued uncertainty despite the overnight BoJ decision to largely retain their monetary policy in similar shape. Monetary policy has been kept extremely accommodative. The bank’s shift in purchases of exchange-traded funds toward assets linked to the Topix index did little to help the index over the course of the session, yet for the most part market fears proved unfounded.

A busy economic calendar saw a largely bearish picture for the Japanese economy, with a rise in unemployment coming alongside fall in industrial production and consumer confidence. Chinese PMI figures did little to enable a more bullish outlook, with a deterioration in both services and manufacturing readings.

The morning will largely focus in on the eurozone CPI and GDP figures, with core inflation expected to tick higher to 1%. On the GDP front, the only expected change comes in the year-on-year figure, with markets looking for a tick lower to 2.4% (from 2.5%).
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ESMA margin rules from July 30th
New ESMA regulations coming into force for the EU region are set to standardise the way margin close out rules work for retail traders. On the IG trading platform the new margin close-out rules will come into effect from 1pm on Monday 30 July. Please find an overview of the new regulation and how this may effect your account. We've included a useful video and a worked example which may also help. 

Please remember that these changes only affect retail clients of EU firms (that are subject to ESMA regulation), and do not apply to professional clients. Please add any query, question, or request for clarification in the comments box.
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Trade War 'Relief', Key Rate Decisions and Apple Earnings - DailyFX Key Themes
Trade War Relief, But How Much? Fed, BoE and BoJ Rate Decisions for Individual and Collective Influence. FANG Has Set Up Apple as a More Important Capital Market Driver. Catch up on the three key themes this week from DFX's John Kicklighter.
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BoE rate changes this week? - EMEA brief 30 July
Overnight markets have started the week in a downbeat fashion, with losses across Chinese, Hong Kong, Japanese, and Australian markets amid a week of possible monetary tightening from the BoE and (potentially) the BoJ. The Nikkei is down 0.75%, as we lead into this week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. With US tech stocks failing to perform on Friday, that uncertainty has carried through into this new week, with earnings season likely to continue dominating sentiment. Data-wise, Japanese retail sales rose to 1.65; marginally lower than the 1.7% expected.
 
Global markets are trading softer this morning with US Index Futures continuing Friday's decline which was led by the US Tech sector (after Twitter results disappointed). Looking ahead, today represents a very quiet day on the economic calendar, with little to no major events to keep an eye out for. As we enter the start of a new month, this lull will not last long, with events coming thick and fast towards the second half of the week. The dollar has firmed since Friday's strong GDP print. On the corporate front, watch out for earnings figures from Caterpillar, Loews Corp, and Electronic Arts. More results listed below.
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Dividend Adjustments 30 Jul - 03 Aug
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 30 July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Twitter earnings today - EMEA brief 27th July
US Index Futures are staging a partial rebound this morning after yesterday's Nasdaq led decline following worse than expected results from Facebook.  The dollar has softened overnight and in turn we have seen some marginal gains in commodity prices. Looking ahead, a quiet day from Europe means the focus will be firmly fixed on the US GDP figure, which is expected to rise sharply to over 4%. Trump’s excitement at the ‘best financial numbers on the planet’ could possibly be another lead on the potential release, given his announcement about “looking forward to the jobs numbers” on the day of a massive NFP outperformance back in June.

The corporate calendar remains busy, with Twitter earnings maintaining the focus on tech stocks today. Meanwhile, we also have the likes of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Merck, and American Airlines numbers to look out for.
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Post in ECB - European Central Bank
Where do you see the markets moving on the back of the ECB meeting later today? ING's cut out and keep crib sheet may be useful for some of the currency traders among you, along with an alternative version published by TD. Ask the Community, or Ludwik from our FX and cryptocurrency desk, a trading question to get the most out of IG.
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US/EU trade talks go well - EMEA brief 26th July
The move in the US is led by the Nasdaq following a poor reception to Facebook results. The ongoing trade war narrative remains in the market place as Donald Trump meets with EU leaders.

European data has kicked off with the release of the German Gfk consumer climate number, which ticked moderately lower from 10.7 to 10.6. The eurozone focus will be maintained through the day, with today’s monetary policy decision from the ECB bringing heightened volatility and focus on the euro. We are unlikely to see any move from Draghi & co, yet this may not necessarily mean that we see the meeting pass without any fireworks. The US focus will be upon the impact of the EU-US trade deal, with many hoping this would become a blueprint for future dealings with China. On the calendar front, look out for core durable goods unemployment claims, and crucially the US trade balance data. 
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