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MongiIG

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MongiIG last won the day on July 25

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  1. Barclays have proven just why they should retain their investment banking arm, with a jump in profits pointing towards a likely bullish drive from here. Source: Bloomberg Shares Barclays Market sentiment Stock Investment Investment banking Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 29 July 2021 Barclays earnings provide bullish impetus Barclays has given its shareholders plenty to celebrate today, with the bank posting an impressive £5 billion profit for the first half (H1) of 2021. That ability to almost quadruple their profits for H1 provided a fresh bout of buybacks and dividends to reward investors banking on a pro-cyclical boost for the sector. Part of the boost came from the ability to claw back provisions that had been made in anticipation of bad debts, with Covid-19 sparking a wave of defaults. However, the government’s supportive measures managed to stave off much of those effects, with banks reclaiming those funds set aside in preparation of such losses. Meanwhile, the bank saw positive signs that consumer demand was starting to grow once again. Nonetheless, much of the profits seen at Barclays came thanks to their investment banking division, drawing a line between the bank and its UK peers. The US banks have historically outperformed UK banks thanks in part to their more volatile trading divisions. However, while shareholders had been pushing Barclays to shift away from their investment banking exposure, Jes Staley’s decision to fight off those moves have been justified today. Instead, we could now see investors specifically look towards Barclays as a potential outperformer thanks to that greater risk profile. Bullish breakout could bring long-term reversal The stock managed to break up through the £1.80 resistance level back in March, with the decline in treasury yields seeing the stock ease back since. However, we have seen price find support on the descending trendline, with price now stuck between two long-term lines. With the rally through £1.80 bringing an end to the long-term downtrend, there is a good chance that we are set for another leg higher from here. The fact that the stochastic is turning upwards after a period of downside highlights how momentum appears to be shifting in favour of the bulls. Source: ProRealTime The daily chart highlights the uptrend in place over the past 16 months, with todays rally taking price back into that £1.80 region. The declines seen over the course of the past three-months does still remain in play unless we see a rise through the July high of £1.78, yet the fact that the price appears to have topped out at that level does raise the likeliness that this recent pullback is over. Further upside through that level would provide greater confidence of such a bullish surge, although ultimately any further downside would simply be deemed a buying opportunity unless the price breaks the £1.29 low established in January. Find out more on how to buy, sell and short Barclays shares Source: ProRealTime
  2. Hi @Marcraffard It is a good thing you did your research, it is one key tool for trading. With the research you have done, as a trader you will get a better understanding why the market is moving in a certain way, while at the same time you will be able to anticipate these moves when such announcements happen again in future. All the best - MongiIG
  3. The dollar weakened in early European trading Thursday, falling to two-week lows after further indications that U.S. interest rate hikes are still a distant event following the conclusion of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower at 92.157, just higher than the two-week low of 92.097 reached earlier Thursday. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 109.78, GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.3931, climbing to a one-month high, EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1856 ahead of German data on inflation and unemployment, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7385. The U.S. central bank kept interest rates steady on Wednesday at the end of its latest two-day meeting, as widely expected, while suggesting that the U.S. economy was making progress towards the levels where the Fed members would agree to tapering monthly bond purchases. However, comments from Chairman Jerome Powell that rate increases were "a ways away" and that the job market still had "some ground to cover” before the central bank begins to taper its assets weighed on the dollar. His comments mean that investors will be keeping a close eye on the latest economic data. The weekly initial jobless claims, due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), are set to show a continued decline, while the second quarter GDP release at the same time is expected to show 8.5% annualized growth, a sharp increase from the 6.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. “We still find it likely that a tapering decision is taken in September with a formal slowdown of the purchases from December and onwards,” said analysts at Nordea, in a note. “We expect the Fed to be able to finalize tapering by the summer of 2022.” Elsewhere, USD/CNY edged 0.3% lower to 6.4731, with the yuan regaining a lot of the ground it lost due to the regulatory onslaught against technology companies that rattled local equity and bond markets. . Helping the tone Thursday were reports saying that China's securities regulator called a select group of foreign and Chinese banks and institutional investors late on Wednesday to try and soothe nerves. CNBC reported that China would continue to allow companies to list in the United States. By Peter Nurse, 29 July 2021. Investing.com
  4. Gold and Brent crude head higher as dollar weakens Gold and Brent crude manage to push through resistance, as the dollar weakens in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 29 July 2021 Gold drives higher from key support Gold has managed to push sharply higher from the $1790 support level overnight, with the Federal Open Committee Meeting (FOMC) bringing a decline for the US dollar. That helps to alleviate the pressure on gold for now, with price seemingly heading back into the recent uptrend seen throughout early July. Near-term resistance comes in the form of $1823, yet there is a risk that we post a retracement before long given the sharp moves seen overnight. In either case, the uptrend does remain intact, with a break back below $1790 required to negate that recent bullish pattern. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude pushing through resistance as it builds on recovery Brent crude has pushed up through the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level of $74.12, helping to alleviate fears of a bearish reversal. The recent declines seen around the OPEC+ talks are behind us, and we look likely to continue the long-term uptrend from here. As such, while a move through $76.30 would be required to fully eradicate this recent selloff, it makes sense to favour bullish positions unless price falls through the prior swing-low (currently $73.12). Source: ProRealTime
  5. Dollar weakness drives EUR/USD and GBP/USD gains, while USD/CAD breaks lower FOMC-fuelled dollar weakness sparks EUR/USD and GBP/USD gains, while USD/CAD breaks through Fibonacci support. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CAD Canadian dollar Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 29 July 2021 EUR/USD drives higher after recent upside break EUR/USD has built on the rise through $1.1831, with the pair driving into a fresh two-week high. The gradual nature of the recent downtrend did point to such a move likely coming into play before long, and we are now looking for clues as to where this rise will push into. The wider Fibonacci retracement from $1.1975 is of particular interest, with $1.189 and $1.1922 representing the two notable deep Fib levels worth considering from the bears to come back into play once again. Until then, further short-term upside looks likely from here. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD breaks key resistance to end recent bearish threat GBP/USD has managed to push up through the $1.391 resistance level overnight, with the pair negating the downtrend in play over the course of June and July. With a more bullish outlook now confirmed, it makes sense to simply follow the intraday trend of higher lows, with a bullish outlook in play until the price breaks back below $1.3843. Source: ProRealTime USD/CAD breaks Fibonacci support after recent consolidation USD/CAD has finally broken from its consolidation phase, with the pair falling into a two-week low this morning. Crucially, that brings us back below the 76.4% Fibonacci support level as we close in on the key swing low of $1.2425. A break back below that level would confirm the end of the uptrend that has dominated the past two months. As such, watch out for further downside from here, with a break below $1.2425 in particular providing greater confidence in that bearish outlook. Source: ProRealTime
  6. FTSE 100, DAX and Dow consolidation expected to bring fresh push higher FTSE, DAX, and Dow consolidation likely to ultimately resolve in another push towards the upside. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 29 July 2021 FTSE 100 rallies back into Friday’s high The FTSE 100 has managed to push back into the recent high of 7041, with the index largely warding off selling pressure evident on Tuesday. The ongoing recovery phase points towards a potential move into the 7070 resistance level given the current break through 7041. From a wider perspective, we would want to see a rise above 7151 to entirely negate the declines seen in mid-July and confirm the uptrend once again. Source: ProRealTime DAX pausing after recent recovery move The DAX has been attempting to regain ground over the past 10-days, with price on the rise after a wider 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. While Tuesday saw a break back below 15542 support, the lack of follow-through highlights how we are likely to head higher before long. Watch for a push through the 15641 level to build a more bullish picture once again, with the index likely to grind lower until that upside break occurs. Source: ProRealTime Dow Jones likely to push into fresh highs before long The Dow has seen a brief move into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at 34858 this week, with the downside moves proving somewhat limited in nature. A break back below 34761 would signal a potential wider retracement coming into play. Until then, another move higher looks likely from here as we build on the bullish trend. Source: ProRealTime
  7. For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: China’s Hang Seng tech index rebounds sharply on reports China is responding to investor concerns over regulatory outlook. UK earnings: Lloyds Q2 pretax profit tops estimates, announces acquisition of Embark Shell to resume share buybacks targeting $2bn by year-end BT Q1 earnings top estimates, AZN, Diageo also report US earnings: Facebook warns on growth outlook, shares lower, PayPal disappoints, Amazon ATB Europe earnings: VW raises FY outlook Credit Suisse Q2 net income falls short of estimates Fed last night, rates unchanged, considers tapering bond purchases , US quarterly GDP later today Brent crude closing in on $75 as EIA inventories fall short of estimates.
  8. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates, and acknowledge that while progress had been made toward its threshold to start tapering monthly bond purchases, more time was needed to assess the progress at upcoming meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 0% to 0.25% and said it would continue its $120 billion monthly bond purchases. "Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals.," The Fed said in its statement. "Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings." The Fed has faced calls from within its ranks to bring forward the timeline on tightening monetary policy in the wake of rising inflation. Despite admitting that the pace of inflation has surprised to the upside, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been reluctant to heed calls to tighten policy sooner rather than later. “While reaching the standard of ‘substantial further progress’ is still a ways off, participants expect that progress will continue,” Powell said earlier this month in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. A recovery in the labor market appears to be at the heart of the Fed’s taper threshold. But Powell recently admitted the labor market "still has a long way to go." Sentiment on the recovery in the labor market and broader market, meanwhile, suffered a further blow with the resurgence in Covid-19 cases brought on by the delta variant and a slowing vaccination rates. “Until a couple of months ago, our GDP growth forecast had been distinguished for the prior year by being well above consensus expectations,” Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a recent report to clients. “At this point, our forecast is instead distinguished from consensus expectations by the sharpness of the deceleration that we expect over the next year and a half.” Goldman Sachs now expects the U.S. economy to return to expansion of 1.5% to 2% in the second half of next year. Traders will shift attention to Powell's press conference at 2.30 PM ET (1830 GMT), for more clues on the roadmap to tapering bond purchases. But the Fed chief isn’t expected to provide any meaningful updates on the timeline. "We expect the Committee to debate the pace and flexibility, as well as the relationship of tapering with rate hikes. At the post-FOMC press conference, we expect Chair Powell to acknowledge the Committee's discussions, while stressing no decision has yet been made," Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said in a recent note. By Yasin Ebrahim, 28 July 2021. Investing.com
  9. Hi @ChocoIG, thanks for your question. Please reach out to our client facing team as we can't assist with these queries on the community, the client facing team will be able to check with the desk and see why your orders are not valid and give you feedback, but we do apologise for the inconvenience. You can reach them on helpdesk.uk@ig.com All the best - MongiIG
  10. Hi @bkhan, please reach out to our client facing team as we can't assist with these queries but we do apologise for the inconvenience. You can reach them on helpdesk.uk@ig.com All the best - MongiIG
  11. Hi @Marcraffard, thanks for sharing the link on why Tesla stock fell after the earnings. Great article to read. Regards MongiIG
  12. By Dhirendra Tripathi, 28 July 2021. Investing.com Investing.com – Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock came off earlier lows in premarket trading Wednesday and was down 0.4% as the company raised its annual guidance and pegged revenue from sale of its COVID-19 vaccines at approximately $33.5 billion. The revenue from COVID-19 vaccines reflects 2.1 billion doses expected to be delivered in 2021 under already-signed contracts as of middle of this month. It could supply up to 3 billion doses if expansion at current sites happens and new suppliers are added, Pfizer said. The vaccine contributed $7.83 billion in revenue during the second quarter. Expenses and profit from the vaccine are split equally between Pfizer and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX). Pfizer raised its 2021 guidance for revenue to a range of $78 billion to $80 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share to $3.95-$4.05. This only factors in the revenue from COVID vaccines already contracted. It had earlier guided for revenue to come between $78 billion and $80 billion. Second-quarter revenue at the pharmaceutical giant rose 92% from a year ago to $18.97 billion. COVID shots aside, Pfizer’s revenue was also boosted by growth in its pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar and oncology businesses as people attended to health issues they had been putting off in the pandemic. Excluding revenue from the COVID vaccine BNT162b2, revenue grew 10% operationally to $11.1 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came at $1.07, beating the estimate of 96 cents.
  13. The Federal Reserve keep markets guessing around taper talk, with the rise in Delta cases expected to result in a more cautious approach. Source: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Inflation Federal Open Market Committee Technical analysis Market trend Core inflation Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 The Federal open market committee (FOMC) return to the fold this week, with investors keenly looking out for clues from a meeting that is likely to be more talk than action. That two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday 27 July. Inflation fears remain Recent months have seen a significant degree of uncertainty after the Federal Reserve (Fed) took a notable shift in tone away from their explicitly dovish and supportive stance seen since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Instead, the recent rise in inflation has brought a more cautious approach, with the committee clearly losing confidence that this recent rise in prices will be transitory. The chart below highlights how those inflationary pressures remain highly present, with both headline and core consumer price index (CPI) pushing through the 5% threshold. Notably, that takes core inflation to the highest level in 20-years. Source: Federal Reserve Last month’s dot plot highlights how that rise in inflation has pushed outlook at the Fed, with a majority of members seeing rates rising in 2023. Meanwhile, we have also seen a total of seven members that foresee higher rates as early as next year. Source: Federal Reserve Expectations of a 2022 rate rise are evident when looking at the market pricing of the first hike. Any rate rise at Wednesday’s meeting looks highly unlikely given the 0% currently priced in. However, the longer-term outlook sees expectations rise towards the end of 2022. Source: Eikon Delta variant could result in cautious approach Despite the ongoing pressure brought about by soaring inflation, the rise of the Delta variant does provide the basis for a more cautious Fed this time around. Despite 48% of the US enjoying full vaccination status, those efforts have been undermined by rise of the more contagious Delta strain which now accounts for 91% of US cases. The surge in Delta dominance has been simultaneous with a rise in cases, with new cases rising to the highest level since April 2021. Source: Ourworldindata Tapering the key topic for traders With a rate rise unlikely this year, traders will instead focus on tapering given the fact that the Fed will look to address their asset purchases scheme first. The ongoing quantitative easing policy helps to drive equity prices upward and a weaker dollar. With that in mind, any move to withdraw this stimulus would likely drive markets lower. From an FX perspective, the dollar trajectory is less clear as the strength that could come from tighter policy can be counteracted by haven demand as equity prices head lower. While we are unlikely to see tapering commence yet, we are likely to see volatility if the Fed provides forward guidance on when tapering will start. Dollar index technical analysis The dollar has started to head lower as we move into this week’s meeting, with price falling back below the ascending trendline that supported price over the past month. The recent rally is yet to take us up through the prior high of $93.47, with the long-term downtrend yet to be debunked. Until then, there is a risk of a move lower, with a decline through the $92.07 swing low bringing a more bearish outlook. Until that level breaks, there is a risk we could see the uptrend of the past two-months come back into play. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 technical analysis The S&P 500 is also weakening as we head into the meeting, with prices easing back from Monday’s record high. Should the Fed decide to bring a more hawkish stance, we could see this pullback extend. However, such a move would likely represent a retracement of the rally from 4232. As such, even if we do see a somewhat unlikely roadmap for tapering laid out, it would likely present another opportunity to buy the dip. Meanwhile, a more patient approach would raise the likeliness of a swift move back towards previous highs Source: ProRealTime
  14. EUR/USD and GBP/USD on the rise as AUD/USD lags behind EUR/USD and GBP/USD show potential for a bullish resurgence, while AUD/USD lags behind. Source: Bloomberg Forex Market sentiment Australian dollar EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 EUR/USD shows first signs of bullish phase EUR/USD managed to rise through the $1.1831 resistance level yesterday, with the pair showing the first signs of a bullish phase after two months of downside. The very gradual nature of this sell-off has highlighted the potential for a breakout before long, yet we needed to see a push through resistance for that to come into play. While $1.1831 is a notable level, a rise through $1.1851 would bring greater confidence that a bullish phase is coming into play. Nonetheless, with the intraday trend showing higher highs and higher lows, it makes sense to look at this with a more bullish view unless the price falls back below $1.177. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD closes in on key resistance GBP/USD has been on the rise over the course of the past week, with the pair pushing up through the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level yesterday. With pricing closing in on the key $1.391 swing high, a break through that level would bring a bullish reversal signal after two months of downside. As such, the ability to break up through $1.391 will be critical in determining sentiment as we move forward. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD lags behind as it falls towards double top support AUD/USD has failed to replicate the gains seen elsewhere, with the dollar dominating this pair once again this morning. A break through the $0.733 level would complete a double top formation, highlighting the potential for further downside from here. As such, watch for a potential break below $0.733 to bring about a bearish continuation signal. Notably, the underperformace of the Australian dollar also brings attention to the fact that we could see strength for the likes of EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD in the day ahead. Source: ProRealTime
  15. Gold stabilises above support as oil holds its ground Both gold and oil are consolidating, the former after losses and the latter after gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 Gold The gold price fell back from Monday’s high, but once again found support around $1795. The rally from Tuesday’s low appears to be stalling below $1808, below Monday’s peak, suggesting selling momentum remains strong for now. But the continued formation of a base around $1795 does at least suggest downside will be limited in the short-term. Source: ProRealTime WTI Oil has avoided a renewed turn lower for now, but a break above trendline resistance from the recent highs remains unbroken. However, losses below $70.50 have been contained, which leads the bullish side to have the upper hand for a time. That being said, a breakout above $72 is needed to revive bullish momentum. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on a commodity?
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