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Kodiak

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Posts posted by Kodiak

  1. "Before moving to a spreadsheet example, note that we have a chicken and egg dilemma. We need our first Heikin-Ashi candlestick before we can calculate future Heikin-Ashi candlesticks. "

    https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:heikin_ashi

     

  2. Maybe more time for daytrading (US and Asia markets) in France?

    "

    Paris curfew ordered amid massive surge in coronavirus cases, Macron says

     

    France recorded more than 22,000 cases on Wednesday – more than three-times peak of first wave in April"

    "

    The curfew will last from 9pm until 6am and will come into force at midnight on Saturday.

    Anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of €135 euros, which will rise for repeat offences. "

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-curfew-coronavirus-france-latest-cases-macron-b1041285.html

     

    • Like 1
  3. 1 hour ago, HMB said:

    Interesting post!

    I tend to agree with you, but let me just play the advocatus diabolo here for the sake of progressing the discussion:

    Which market are you referring yo - NYFANG +MSFT (and maybe TAN and UBER etc.) or the rest of the world?

    Define overvalued.  Financial conditions are unprecedentedly easy across the globe - so what to compare current levels of P/E, EV/EBITDA etc. with?  To me this market seemed overvalued since 2018 the latest...

    The alternative narrative is, that what's going on is simply everyone trying to get a piece of ownership in an obvious future pie, to be grown by a massive change of our way of life due to convergence of various fast-progressing technologies.  Wouldn't be the first time....  The stimulus theme is certainly more than a side show, and accelerated  dynamics, but it didn't create the underlying trend.  Hence its absence alone would not end it.

    negative earnings for a while would, eventually, though, I guess... 

    how much do Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Tesla earnings depend on stimulus?  (genuine question - I have no idea)  

    Lets first see how the election goes (president and congress) before we price in future earnings

    "It is one way Mr. Biden hopes to reverse President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and extract money from corporations if he wins the presidency and Democrats take full control of Congress. The argument for higher corporate taxes resonates with many voters."

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-tax-plan-targets-profitable-companies-that-pay-almost-nothing-11595848477

    • Like 2
  4. Maybe the market pricing in Biden as president?

    "Biden Urges Bigger Role for Fed in Addressing Racial Wealth Gap"

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-urge-federal-reserve-to-take-on-racial-wealth-gap-11595948475

    "Research shows that stock ownership is highly concentrated among the rich, with the wealthiest 10% of US households owning 84% of all stocks in 2016,"

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/17/investing/stock-market-inequality-coronavirus/index.html

     

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/politics/black-white-us-financial-inequality/index.html

    • Like 1
  5. Well the market change all the time so dont expect it to work fpr long

    The thing is that when you take more money than buy and hold from the market someone else pays the profit and probably try to change the way they trade after a while?

    Lets take a look at DAX buy and hold (including dividend)

    3 years ago Dax was at 12 587 and now at 12 555 (thats a loss of 32 points)

    6 years ago 9486 thats 3069 points profit

    and 6 years would be about 1500 days of trading?

    thats 2 points a day or 10 points a week for buy and hold

    and IG (or others) dont work for free

     

    • Like 1
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