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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. 4 minutes ago, EMDE said:

    @Caseynotes that's what i had in mind, but i was thinking there's little liquidity making it less volatile/no movement, i also wasn't sure if other traders are still in it.. so Ive kept watching fx pairs... i might have it mixed up on the volatile/liquidity bit. when it comes to indices they seem to have wide spreads... whats the strategy for entering with that? just go for it even with a wide spread?.

    There is potentially more liquidity available for FX than any other market, just little incentive to use it at the moment (low volatility). Traders have been watching the fundamentals and been quite happy to watch the eurusd go sideways for a year and a half. Choose your markets wisely, Dax and Ftse have a spread of  just 1 point, Dow 1.6 points, also take a look at the main commodities. Yes, stay away from high spreads, they instantly put you at a disadvantage.

    • Like 1

  2. Larry Tentarelli @LMT978

    "Here's what works best for me: a consistent, technical process a narrow set of rules that excludes random trades, trade w/ the main trend trade one direction, long or short, no predictions no opinions, small losers/bigger winners, scaling partial gains while holding the core position"

    • Like 1

  3. 14 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Wonder where this will go 🤔  You see I cashed out already.  But I'm ready to go back in when the time is right, Matilda.  :)

    at the first sign of resistance, buy and hold not as easy as it sounds then? 🧐


  4. 2 hours ago, EMDE said:

    can someone give some insight on whats happening when it comes to fx.. for a while now it all seems like its barely moving so i only put a quick scalp in once a week or so an that's basically it. but it seems like everyone sees it as normal, continuing to talk about trade ideas.. how often are fx/futures traders trading?.. as im feeling like i cant catch much opportunities.. if anyone has some tips it'll be appreciated. i usually trade London session on 1 to 4hr time frames.. usually in slow times i just don't trade but its seeming like this for a while now, Ive been relearning stuff but it just feels like im going in circles catching things i learnt a few years back and im not completely sure if its relevant to the current situation.  i also understand about the signing of the trade deal recently/...this week an how coming into big events or recently the end of the year has markets slowing down but what about other times?

    FX is near historic volatility lows which means little movement and tight ranges making FX very difficult to trade. I've written about this else where on the forum in the past (somewhere). The alternatives are to increase the size of your account and so enable increased bet sizes, concentrate on only the most volatile pairs, concentrate trading around news events where volatility is raised or simply find better markets to trade, indices are doing will at the mo 🙂

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-fx-volatility-has-been-falling-and-what-to-do-about-it-2019-11-08

    "there’s no doubt about it – volatility in the foreign exchange markets has been falling recently. The Deutsche Bank historical volatility index of the major G7 currencies, while not quite back to the lows of 2014, is certainly getting there."

    image.png.d71bf1db79d9838d82eb3a1edf2e23ae.png

    • Like 2

  5. Indices continue upward, Bonds down, Oil and Gold up overnight.

    Today UK retail sales at 9:30am. EU CPI at 10am. US housing data at 1:30pm. US Mich consumer senti at 3pm.

    @Charlotte, just to note loading the platform has been incomplete all week (see blank spaces below), never been a problem before.

    image.thumb.png.f76c28cbf70d3b1b457845745624a557.png

    image.thumb.png.6425c6b5e580fc3151ceb431876b7dbb.png


  6.  

    1 hour ago, dmedin said:

    Well, that was pretty fecking painful.

    not sure what you are trying to say, you may have heard this from me before though, indicators are just a guide but price action on appropriate chart structure is real so learn chart structure. on the chart above there is down trend and then consolidation, another down leg and then consolidation, a break to the upside then consolidation followed by a break up and lastly a reversal bar. There aren't any pullbacks on this chart.

    Learn chart structure.

    image.png.a074ba17aa6bba85f4e280d02bb890b4.png

    • Like 1

  7.  

    32 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    many pundits are currently drawing comparisons with the period which preceded the collapse dot-com tech bubble

     

    34 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    The founder of NorthmanTrader, Sven Henrich, also argued in a "The Ghosts of 2000"

    On 14/01/2020 at 14:20, Caseynotes said:

    "The Nasdaq Composite is currently 36% above its 200 week moving average. At the 2000 peak, it was 150% above This market is not like the Dot Com bubble."

     

    twitter.com › Guruleaks1 › status

     

    GuruLeaks on Twitter: "Sven Henrich aka @Northmantrader ...

    1.  
    23 Mar 2017 - Replying to @Guruleaks1 @NorthmanTrader @CNBC. be aware of market gurus who don't trade with real money. Henrich doesn't manage ...
    23 Mar 2017 - Always ask to see ur gurus verified P/L, many pretend to trade while collecting sub ... Replying to @Guruleaks1 @NorthmanTrader @CNBC.

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    • Great! 1

  8. This is a useful little tip on timing pullback entries and shows how you can spot when a pullback is profit taking (by the bulls in this case) and not a serious attempt at a reversal by the bears. A case of waiting for the bears to obviously fail before looking to enter.

     

    image.png.4e7024d7491c2b4023762fb4dbdeff47.png

    Your Trading Coach @YTCtrading

    "It's not always as visually obvious as appears here, but this is a key principle underlying ALL my pullback entries."

    • Like 1

  9. 13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    This seems pretty generous, he'll be the only bloke trading it so I bet IG will be hedging by betting against him :D  Or with him, if he's any good :D

    with 10's of thousands of markets out there it's often the case that the broker will wait for client interest before including a company onto the platform.

    The hedging by IG is not to bet against you but if required works the other way around. So if IG wants to hedge against your trade they will take out the same trade in the same direction so if you win so do they and they can pass their profit over to you, if you make a loss they take that loss to compensate their own loss.

    • Like 2

  10. "Our call of the day from the founder and chief executive of Ciovacco Capital Management"

    He said the bigger picture for stocks is now coming together. “A sound argument can be made that the stock market made a cyclical low in 2018 within the context of a secular trend,” Ciovacco said. He was alluding to that big equity drop in December 2018, while a secular trend refers to a rising or falling market trend. It can last from five to 25 years, peppered by smaller bear or bull markets, respectively.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/years-of-stock-gains-are-ahead-but-also-scary-pullbacks-says-strategist-2020-01-16

     

     

    • Like 1

  11.  

    10 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

    DAX seems to be between a rock and a hard place?

    I wonder where the max pain is?

    "Max pain, or the max pain price, is the strike price with the most open contract puts and calls - and the price at which the stock would cause financial losses for the largest number of option holders at expiration."

     

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp

    the key is the interconnectedness of these large international companies and their dependence on a booming US economy, currently Dax and Ftse are marking time waiting for that next US boom, note marking time and not collapsing because markets are expecting US growth in the future. If the US economy picks up substantially then so will demand for Audis, Mercs and BMWs, same for Ftse company products. Markets have been waiting for some kind of resolution to the US/China trade dispute and true the picture is still not clear but is clear enough to encourage the US markets, if that continues the others must follow.   

    • Like 1
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