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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon.

    Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch. 

    Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.

    ro1.jpg.9682b44478f93997bb0db6c7bedd64db.jpg


  2. 15 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

    The likes of Bloomberg, CNBC et al do have a form of bias which traders need to be careful and aware of. Yes they may have some expert analysts but they cannot predict the future any better than some of us who are trading our real money and spending real time observing price action. 

    That's correct and they do influence people, in all the years I've been watching markets on a daily basis there has not been a week go by when someone hasn't called an upcoming recession, whenever the indices correct downward the calls come daily, not least on this forum.

    Indices often look a 'bit toppy', it's called 'the wall of worry', technical based traders not understanding the drivers and the nature of indices are forever calling major reversals and routinely get it wrong, traders need to block out 'the noise' and just follow the charts. 

    Here's an interesting chart, volume of twitter pessimist sentiment spikes correlate with SPY lows. 

    ro2.jpg.76b66e6ad60e4a88dd7f1c934a43ea59.jpg

     


  3. MT4 Learn to Trade


    Though there are many platforms to choose from learning to trade on mt4 stands out for a good number of important reasons. IG offers a multitude of platforms each with their own special features but essentially they all set out to do the same job. If you are just starting out you should not be looking to specialise but should first be seeking to learn the basic art of trading on a average market on a average time frame. Once you have learnt to use a platform picking up how to use any of the others is relatively simple and mt4 is good first choice.

     

    Built in trading journal.

    It usually takes a while before people learn that they need to be journaling their trades, all that time is wasted. And no, the account PnL is not enough, when you start out you will be trialing many different approaches, at some point you will realise you've come full circle, you'll stop to consider what you've learnt and you'll realise the answer is nothing because you have no record of what you've done and what worked when. With a journal you can review and compare different time periods and see without doubt what was working and by how much. MT4's built in journal starts recording your trades from day 1.

     

    Micro lot bet sizes.

    Demo is really only useful to learn the ins and outs of the platform, and maybe checkout the basic prospects of a new strategy, you will not learn to trade on the demo platform, you need to be risking real money, even if it's only fractions to begin with, start low with a view to build up as your skill and confidence grows rather than starting too high, panicking because of the risk and being forced to drop down, this crushes confidence. MT4 is the only IG platform where you are able to start at 10 pence per point (micro contracts).

     

    All styles of charts.

    Every conceivable chart type is available on mt4 (HA, Renko etc) allowing you to experiment and get a feel for them and find out early if they work for you or not, learning on a platform with only the basic chart types (line, bar and candle) will leave you wondering and looking backwards rather than forwards as you progress.

     

    Every type of indicator.

    The range of indicators available for free download is legendary, literally 10's of thousands. Same as for chart types, experiment to get a feel for what suits early on and develop from there.

     

    Easy learn auto trading with mt4 EAs.

    EAs were a main feature for mt4 right from the beginning. Trading robots are popular and mt4 has special features to make the use of Bots easy to learn and, as for indicators, there are many already written you can download plus there is lots of tuition on how to write one yourself.

     

    Lots of help and support network via the mql5 community.

    The resource pages on mql5.com for mt4/5 are huge and there is also a very large and active members forum, most any question you might have is likely to have been already answered, search and see, if an answer is not found just ask the community.


     

    MT4 may well not be the platform you end up with once you have learnt the actual basics of trading, it has it's faults like any platform, doesn't cover stocks for example, but it probably should be the one to start out on to learn how to trade.


  4. @nit2wynit, sorry to hear you hit the limit but you're not the first and won't be the last to blow your first live account.

    Plenty of lessons learnt I'm sure and time to start afresh. imho your plan to fast hit a slow market was ambitious and I'm not convinced the platform was the problem, I've said before that the demo platform is the same as live and that's basically true for normal markets but the demo won't reproduce a laggy market, it can't, and I suspect other broker's live platforms will also have problems finding prices on illiquid stocks.

    You are right that a small account reduces options but the key is to learn the basics of trading first before trying to specialise.

    Start from the bottom and learn the basics, the basics are finding entry points and targets on an average market on an average time frame and keep practicing and adjusting til you get it right, and I would do this on a simple platform that allowed very low bet sizes rather than a demo account.

    So that would be something like trading the ftse on a 1 - 4 hour chart using 10 pence per point on the mt4 platform. So you're risking real money, enough to hurt your pride but not your account.

    That should be where everyone starts but most never do, they always seem to start at the top and work their way down before starting over again from the bottom.

    Anyway, we all look forward to round 2, best of luck.

     

     

    • Thanks 1

  5. 1 minute ago, dmedin said:

    President ****-for-brains is out of control and needs to be impeached ...

    so that you can buy these great new very cheap cars from China, but they look vaguely familiar for some reason 🙄

     image.thumb.png.ee4450123e73df4d1837d28894332e78.png

     


  6. We all know what the book says about a yield curve inversion, that a recession will follow 1 - 2 years after and that between the inversion will reverse back, bonds will be sold while stocks enjoy a brief rally before finally rolling over into a recessionary bear market, after all it's happened 7 times before so must be again right. Well not necessarily, previously the inversions have been deep and lasted several months, that hasn't happened yet. Also fore warned is fore armed and we already know the problem is this time, it's Trump trying to get China to play by the rules, oh and debt.

    The thing is that the bond market has changed radically in the last decade and longer, look at the long term chart of the 10 year bond yield below, falling steadily since the 1980's, with the 10 year being so low a 2/10 year yield inversion is much more likely under far less economic provocation.

    But what about the debt then, well it's clear Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is becoming a 'thing' whether people call it or not. The Japanese have been doing something like it for years except going the long way round and printing money to buy bonds instead of just printing money.

    MMT says that so long as you don't borrow from outside and you keep inflation under control you can print the amount of money you need (see the MMT thread), Japan have been doing it for decades, the UK, US and EU started latter but doing it they are, the problem for the EU is that they have also been borrowing widely from outside.

    Central bank bond buying has distorted the bond market making yield inversions more likely, but less likely of an automatic recession to follow. Central banks will continue to print money anyway, the key is to control inflation, owing yourself money can be dealt with, it's owing other people money that's the problem.

    How will it all actually pan out, who knows, that's not a trader's concern, an investor might take a different view but they still won't know til it happens whatever 'it' is.

     

    Chart 1: Yield dipping below the red line is inversion, the shaded columns are the recession periods that followed.

    image.thumb.png.cbe8699a0e44af4b3b77a72ad67027ae.png

    Chart 2: The steady decline of the 10 year bond yield since the 1980's.

    1959339938_10yield.thumb.jpg.8635f3efbf5c45f5ec4f0f8bae32f0bd.jpg

     

    Chart 3: The 2 year bond yield retreating from recent highs.

    1283427950_2yield.thumb.jpg.d2816127a0eaac6fc12aabad756fa033.jpg

     

    • Thought provoking 1

  7. 4 minutes ago, atomax said:

    Hi,

    i've set my workspace in demo mode to have usd/gbp 2 min chart and usd/gbp 15 min chart as seperate charts in my workspace, when i try and do this in my live account i can't remember how i did it and therefore can't seem to do it. 

     

    Iknow i can split the screen but i find it easier just to flick from one to the other, can anyone help please.

    Hi, you just need to reduce down the chart, tab top right corner, see pic below.

    image.thumb.png.b0356840b3f3d43a2ba2b2b040d18a1f.png


  8. Starting the day having moved back up to resistance again, both are above the pivot and just below R1, as ever may see an initial check of support before an attempt to break out higher. Lots of Fed speak throughout today so could get jumpy.

    image.thumb.png.33345fb35715eaa7f0109c1a42a0eee9.png


  9. This market is a tricky one, it has one foot in both the western and Asian camps, clearly it is influenced by the China markets which are suffering due to the trade war, all the econ data out of China is poor and continuing to drift down. The HK market is also clearly influenced by the western indices and is trying to maintain the same shape and structure as them.

    The western camp seems dominant at the moment so I would look to them for the lead in the future direction, if Dow can jump the current resistance I would expect the HK to do the same.

    Daily chart;

    image.thumb.png.19dc6d58b87e2118bd54167c95e15be1.png


  10. 5 hours ago, llanito said:

    Hi

    The charts are not loading and I don't want to enable flash because of its security implications. The help page refers to "Old Platform" that uses Flash and I presume there is a "New Platform" which I suppose doesn't but there is no clear information on how to enable it. Anybody have any ideas?

    Thanks

    Pete

    Hi, you are probably on the new platform, you can select between the two from your 'My IG' page and use the drop down box on the 'open platform' tab (see pic below)

    Check the other solutions on the help page and see this thread linked below for other possible solutions.

    plt1.jpg.2a5baedbb8bcfacae08dbb869cf717f1.jpg


  11. Indices just waiting at this hurdle and looking for any excuse to jump, have tried going backwards several times but just not interested. Bonds drifting down is bad news for the recession obsessionists, historically touch and go's don't count, the yields need to go deep into inversion and stay there for several months for it to count as a precursor to a recession. Long term these markets are still close to their highs.

    image.thumb.png.1d8e6f059b939535f557888205b96479.png

    • Great! 1

  12. The board remains risk neutral leaning to risk on with Bonds continuing to drift down, Indices, USD and Oil up, Gold down.

    Lots of Fed speak today and the markets are keen for any kind of news so could get jumpy, JH symposium continues today and into Saturday and UK bank holiday Monday.

    image.thumb.png.aec7aab1d5bf6cc772d68c40ced10543.png

    image.thumb.png.d0da3bdc3a7766ddc56d4ad89991b0fb.png


  13. 5 minutes ago, DaveR said:

    I'm using new platform and only ever used new platform, I've cleared Cache but no difference, I've checked flash settings for the main Chrome window/tab and all other opened windows/tabs and Flash is 'Allowed' but still not working !

    Usual workspace window opens with www  address of https://deal.ig.com/wtp#/workspace/****************************  (this bit probably particular to my account so not shown)

    All Tearoffs open from www address

     https://deal.ig.com/wtp#/tearoff/market/IX.D.FTSE.DAILY.IP market specific.

    I believe this is an issue with the tearoff element of the www server but then I'm no expect but pay my spread to IG to sort things out like this !

    Oh ok, I didn't know they had tear offs on the new platform. New platform doesn't use Flash so must be something else,

    Still working ok here though, updating fine, and yes, opens in a new window as per your url above, see pic below

     

    image.thumb.png.330a2a48b59889d6010d802918aae379.png


  14. 8 minutes ago, DaveR said:

    The tearoff charts and tickets are not updating when using the web based platform via Chrome (i always use tearoff charts), this is not good as the charts within Workspace are laggy when trying to apply indicators or move drawings/text labels.

    Hi, I'm presuming you're meaning the old platform and just looked and the tear off chart was fine and updating the live price without problem but did see that chrome is now blocking Flash rather than just re-setting to 'ask' which won't load properly so needed to set to 'allow'.

    If you haven't seen already check this page

    https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/charts/ig-charts/why-are-my-ig-charts-not-working

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