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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Many simply expect far too much from TA, certainly there is no simple yes/no indicator that will have a positive probability because if there was everyone would use it and the market would simply arbitrage it out. All indicators can only be based on historic data and we've all seen the warnings that past performance does not indicate the future. Nearly all indicators I've seen are stamped by the creator with the warning it should not be used in isolation and that would be right. I would consider the natural wave or zig zag patterns of charts as a base, some like to count bars and try to see repeated patterns in the ratios, some like to name the waves look for the ratio of the large ones (it's 1/7, I saw that down the beach one day) but I wouldn't really bother with any of that. If a combination of indicators is needed I would look to be matching the frequency's of a fast and a slow oscillator to apply to a trending chart as probably having the best chance with a view to achieving a slightly better win probability than 50/50 and a risk/reward ratio of n number of trades of around 1:2. That would be enough.
  2. Dax above the pivot but remains trapped under 11546 while Dow stuck at R1 25816 waiting for the US open. H1 charts;
  3. Interesting, thanks for the info, do you know if they publish the aggregated account history of their recommended trades?
  4. you haven't had time to watch it and by the way didn't you once ask how do you use options positioning as an indicator? well it's all there.
  5. LSE still delayed open, next update expected in a few minutes.
  6. I saved this recording of a webinar from a few days ago on Volatility by Chris Weston (formerly of IG). Haven't seen the whole thing yet (60 min) but looks good, covers how to use volatility as a tool to aid trading and uses insider broker info for emphasis. How to use Realised vol, Implied vol, Risk Reversals, COT, ATRs, BBs and options positioning and lots more.
  7. LSE seem to be having problems this morning, ftse 100 and 250 delayed open.
  8. Yay, news articles mentioning 'recession' hit 600, even during 2016 only topped at 500 - maybe this time the market will actually listen but I wouldn't bet on it. We got our pause candle yesterday and this morning showing early signs of looking to reverse back up. The markets were helped yesterday by China making soothing comments but still just a war of words at the moment, something actual will need to happen or Trump will be obliged to introduce some new tariffs early September.
  9. Overnight Indices and USD up Cryptos down, Oil up Gold down and Bonds take a breather. Chart 30 year Treasury Bond. US housing data, plus the only high impact release today is the US Mich consumer sentiment at 3pm.
  10. Hi, sometimes a stock will be taken off the platform simply due to lack of through put but is still available via telephone to the dealing desk, worth inquiring.
  11. For a daily chart choose a higher level pivot, the monthly here is quite interesting.
  12. yes, historically it can be many months before indices show any sign of a down turn as a follow on from a yield curve inversion. Also bond markets have changed a lot over recent years with negative interest rates and negative bond yields throughout western Europe and Japan.
  13. Dax and Dow below the pivot tried lower after the London open but bought back up before reaching yesterday's lows so looks like next a test of the pivot. H1 charts;
  14. Dax, Dow and Ftse very much in sync and trying to lift, strong support just below. After these big daily swings this week may be time for a pause candle.
  15. Overnight USD down, Indices trying to lift, Oil down Gold up, Bonds up chart Bund. Lots of US data today at 1:30pm should be interesting.
  16. The correlation is that Gold is risk off while Indices are risk on, money routinely flows backward and forward between the two on change of sentiment. This week has seen big sentiment swings, trade war dragging on, Trump announcing a de-escalation, a period of reflection, and the realisation not much had changed and then new news the 2s and 10s bond yield curve had inverted for the first time since 2007. All played out in real time on the charts;
  17. no, instead think Remora, attached to the shark so follows closely and is lead to food.
  18. The fly in the ointment of your hackneyed view is that the sharks actually feed off each other, retail traders are not even a snack and only get eaten when they get in the way.
  19. Yesterday's move in gold is clearly correlated to the move in stocks.
  20. 'get long stay long' not at all, I'm questioning the fixation people have on calling tops and jumping in short at the drop of a hat. It's a psychological trap that afflicts the majority and is without doubt the main reason most people fail.
  21. You can get that from a number of web sites such as this one https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/components/s&p_500 but just the S+P 500 alone is 10 pages long
  22. I love this game, anyone can play and IG clients are always at it. During multi-year bull runs you will find the majority of IG clients are trying to short the market, usually between 60 and 70% at any given time, brilliant. I often wonder what makes it psychologically so enticing to keep trying to pick tops? I personally think it's because people look at the chart and see price is at the top of the screen ergo it must be about to turn round and come down right? I also wonder if the reverse is true, that in a bear market do IG clients keep trying to pick the bottom and buy? Bear markets come round so infrequently I've not had a chance to check. The two charts side by side below, are either of these the 'top'? who knows, realistically the 'top' can only be determined with hindsight, 'keeping your power dry' through multi-year bull runs waiting for the big crash just doesn't make any sense, play the chart in front of you not the one you hope to see in the future. The charts below are weekly, the S+P can take months to roll over so why would you be trying to pick the day, what's the point in being wrong hundreds of times in order to be right one day, but as the bottom chart shows there are always plenty takers.
  23. Hi, there are 10s of thousands of shares to watch on the platform, how would you do that? realistically you are going to need a screener.
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