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Blog Comments posted by Caseynotes

  1. Excellent post @MaxIG, written by Kyle Rodda.

    The inverted yield curve (coming, nearly, here?) for US Treasuries  2s and 10s, or 1s and 10s, or 1s and 5s, has been hot news for months now, and is a never ending story that with hindsight can always be made to fit years down the line. Will the coming recession be here in 1 year or 2, or latter, will it be forestalled by a booming economy? (yes).

    On the news front for funds some are saying everything is fine, some that their clients have already moved from 'end of cycle' into 'recession' mode.

    If you are not a fund manager you should not be too worried because as a retail trader you can profit from up moves as well as down.

  2. #IGCommodityChat: Oil

    Saudi said they were not willing to 'cut production' alone, knowing they would get another slap across the wrists from Trump if they do. The other big OPEC producers and Russia can cope with price as is (see graph above), Russia also seems unwilling to cut production. So it seems unlikely there will be an outcome from next weeks meeting that would cause a rise in bullish sentiment.

    The OPEC cartel exists because no one seems willing to start a war with Islam and they have all the oil, the UN is far too busy right now trying to get the UK to hand the Falklands over to Argentina and forcing countries into their Migration (open boarders) Pact.

  3. May and her botched attempts to negotiate with the EU seem to be aimed, as Rees-Mogg queried this morning, not for a soft or no deal Brexit but for a no Brexit. The soft option as is won't get through the commons while the EU won't accept anything else, it'll all turn out to be just too difficult for May. Strange though that the UK manged to walk out on the commonwealth easily enough to join the EU in the first place. 

    EU are facing many serious threats as is. Merkle going, Macron's ratings less than 30%, La Pen's party leading Macron's in EU parliament polls, Salvini's party (The League) growing ever stronger in Italy (now polling 34% of the vote) and Eastern EU states en mass rejecting the EU's migrant distribution plan.


  4. Hi @Gabo,  not sure what was going on with your MT4 but I have never needed to refresh, the platform has always done it automatically on start up same as every other platform. 

    The very first time you open MT4 after download you get the 'waiting for update' sign for the preloaded template charts to open but you just close and reopen MT4 and everything loads after that (same if you have added a new indicator to the indy folder, it needs a restart for it to appear).

  5. Great insight covering a wide arena as usual, this blog is an excellent follow and an extremely useful overview of what's going down on the global stage with targeted reference to the subsets of macro politics and economics.

    Of particular interest is the US/China trade dispute, with the Dow and other US indices reaching at all time highs in the middle of a trade war is remarkable. My own assumption is that the markets know Trump wants to make a deal that will go some way to rebalance the tilted playing field that is the result of US open market against the restrictive controls imposed by the peoples republic. Any deal that is a small step in that direction will suffice, for now. China are running out of imports to tariff and have resorted to taking out multi-paged newspaper adverts. It is possible that any kind of a deal where both parties can claim victory is not actually that far away and that could be the spring board for a new leg up for US indices and consequently other western markets as well.