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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. 27 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    100 trades on US 30, between 11 January and 16 November 2018.

    Hourly timeframe.

    1:2 risk/reward

    Only 44% win rate, but a gain of 5606.8 points.

    Hmm.

    Let us keep testing through the rest of 2018 and into 2019 and 2020 using this method, Tom Bombadil 🤓

    Great but need to progress the process rather than repeat it, if backtesting is good then forward test on a simulator or a demo account, if that works out ok the test on a live account with minimum position size. 

    Each stage teaches new lessons.

    1485164353_aaa1.png.f4cbf684d1529bb0664c76317754204d.png

     

    • Great! 1

  2. On 03/07/2020 at 11:11, jeantan said:

    Hi, does anyone know why the volume is incorrect on IG? Is there a solution to this problem? Volume is quite important for me.

     

    13 hours ago, TFFX_ said:

    Perhaps IG only show what they have transacted that day...

     

    12 hours ago, dmedin said:

    It's based on the volume of futures rather than the volume of actual shares, I think.

    It can take some hours after market close to collate total Vol numbers plus the actual numbers depend on where they are taken from, which exchange or collection of exchanges. Also, though total numbers are often different from different sources the graph profile is usually remarkably similar.

    image.png.6671c6848ab011365ef154404f3209b7.png

     

    • Like 1

  3. On 03/08/2020 at 23:24, Hussaruk said:

    hi all, I've been spread betting on forex for a few months. I've been using mt4 for the last month using small money as I learn. I generally use 0.10 per point which is equivalent to 10 pence per point. 

    I've been upping the amount as I learn, and won a few trades at 0.50 per point. 

    Then a really good opportunity presented itself and I decided to go for £1 per point.

    Here is my problem. With a 2 point spread, 0.10 puts me at - 0.20p when I open a trade. 0.40 puts me at -0.80 when I open a trade etc etc

    When I tried to do £1 per point ... inputting 1.00, it opened me at - £20.00 and not -£2.00 as I would expect.

    It seems that on the demo account it works, but that is for demo CFD not spread betting.

    I hope I've made sense... I want to input £1.00 per point, but the platform acts as if it's £10.00 per point.

    Thanks all

    Hi, not clear what you have done.

    The mt4 demo used to have a quirk in that £0.10/point was 0.01 lots but the Live £0.10/point was 0.10 lots.

    The live lots won't go down below 0.10 while the demo goes down to 0.01 lots, but both work out at £0.10/point.

    • Sad 1

  4. Farce turns into insanity as Johnson, delaying plans to lockdown everyone over the age of 50, now plans to bulldoze your home.

    image.thumb.png.c81eee13c33112adc4a6ad868feda601.png 

    Increasing the number of tests inevitably increases the number of new cases found (usually old cases and no longer active) but GOVT is using this as an excuse to continue with and increase the draconian restrictions on civil liberties.

    Meanwhile in the US Camera Guy films nurses at an ER hospital reporting they don't actually have ANY patients at all.

    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1288163434308292609/pu/vid/720x1280/HQbC1xu4xteJQR7N.mp4?tag=10

    image.png.6388b9214e024756c309bb4171c25944.png

     

    As testing was ramped up in the US many new positives found but there was no increase in hospital admissions.

    "Florida: 223,000 positive #SARSCoV2 tests in three weeks - 10,000 a day - and ~NO CHANGE in hospitalizations or ICU occupancy statewide."

    image.png.fa0792a2bfe46f585a77db1cdc0b98ce.pngimage.png.2bc7fdd7bedc23e36558722a5a5a3805.png

     

    Meanwhile Gates' stooge Fauci pretends US cases are up compared to Europe because the US didn't lockdown hard enough neglecting to mention that the US has tested more than twice as many people as the whole of Europe.

    image.png.ca3b402ba1ec7119e6d78aba955a75bb.png

     

    • Great! 1

  5. After massive protests against covid related restrictions to basic liberties in Germany over the weekend at last the Brits are starting to wake up to the fact they have been duped for the last 4 months.

    (London protest)

    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1289600514871758854/pu/vid/720x1280/80phgIrU_SLEszL2.mp4?tag=10

    image.png.360e5518553a903184622d978c4dd67d.png

    Meanwhile in the US this guy is going around filming empty hospitals (in the middle of this fake pandemic).

    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1290109538746748930/pu/vid/592x1280/bObmlwBZcFJ-twr1.mp4?tag=10

    image.png.6ddaab875d8184cc950156c676b7851e.png

     

    (Protest in Germany Sat)

    image.thumb.png.afeec040ab41e53164ac15373b05a3f1.png

     

     

     

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  6. 7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    More people are dying because of state-imposed Corona-measures than they are being killed by the virus.

    Lockdown has killed 21,000 people, - due to lack of healthcare and cancellations of cancer, and all urgent care for patients data suggests.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/29/lockdown-has-killed-21000-people-say-experts/

     

    More than 200,000 people could die from the impact of lockdown and protecting the NHS, an official government report shows;

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/19/lockdown-may-cost-200k-lives-government-report-shows/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1595227705

     

    • Like 1
    • Sad 1

  7. Leaked German Govt Interior Ministry report;

    Some of the report key passages are:

    • The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
    • The people who die from Corona are essentially those who would statistically die this year, because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies can no longer cope with any random everyday stress (including the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation).
    • Worldwide, within a quarter of a year, there has been no more than 250,000 deaths from Covid-19, compared to 1.5 million deaths [25,100 in Germany] during the influenza wave 2017/18.
    • The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
    • A reproach could go along these lines: During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.

    So far, so bad. But it gets worse.

    The report focuses on the “manifold and heavy consequences of the Corona measures” and warns that these are “grave”.

    More people are dying because of state-imposed Corona-measures than they are being killed by the virus.

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/

    https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf

    • Like 1
    • Thought provoking 1

  8. 6 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Got some exciting news Tom :)

    I did 100 trades using TradingView.com backtest, hourly timeframe, starting from 2 January 2019 till the present on U.S. Tech 100.

    1:2 risk/reward ratio on all trades (long and short)

    Win rate 56% percent.

    Total profit £6977.50 on the basis of £1 per point

    Now need to do the same for other indices and forex pairs! :)

    well done, you should start forward testing on demo to see if you can replicate the results. Sticking to a plan is nearly as hard as devising one in the first place.

    Keep note of the stats to make sure you are on track as per the backtest.

    • Like 1

  9. 23 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Have you got any links that aren't on right-wing extremist / Christian fundamentalist / conspiracy websites?  They would be much more useful.  All that demon sp3rm gets in the way of the facts, Tom!

    ????? there are NO links in the post you quote at all.

    are you saying the video of Fauci saying masks are useless has been faked?  - it hasn't.

    ????? are you saying that the NIH (headed by Fauci) DIDN'T report in 2005 that HCQ was a POTENT INHIBITOR of SARS CORONA VIRUS???

    here's the US Govt web site link saying it did,

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/

    • Like 1

  10. New blog on Steve Burns' web site on trade journaling with a download zip for the same excel journal file (free) I use in the start of this thread but looks like it's been updated for Apache excel.

    A few simple inputs allows the excel to auto calc a running Win% and cumulative Risk/Reward (based on entry, stop and exit price) for plotting on a Profitability chart to see if the strategy is profitable or not. When you make changes to a strategy it's surprising how quickly the data responds (for better or worse).

    https://www.newtraderu.com/2020/07/30/how-to-create-a-trading-journal-and-find-your-edge-in-the-markets/

    image.png.2d599284fb4cdfc92031bc36d39fd681.png

    • Like 1

  11. 38 minutes ago, DavyJones said:

    cheers man, will watching as I type . I am jumping around from strategy to strategy too much.

    I will start a new testing plan tomorrow, For an hour a day, I will go through a charts bar by bar testing an example strategy like the one above, and see if I can narrow in from there  

     

    23 minutes ago, THT said:

    I was going to offer some advice - anyway, if it were me the initial stop would have been somewhere on that green entry bar and then it would have been trailed upwards to preserve a % of open profits so that a profitable trade did not turn into a b/e trade or loss

     

    that's correct, there are many ways to play it but nothing works for everything, the only way to know for your preferred time frame on your preferred market is by testing.

    The good news is that testing doesn't cost money, only time. 

    The easiest way to test is by keeping a win% score and using a fixed risk:reward then plot the score on to the profitability chart below (more detail in the Trade Planning and Testing thread).

    image.png.298b4fd4a197b694914dae0e699984eb.png

     

     


  12. 1 hour ago, DavyJones said:

    I need to read up on the mechanics of what specifically happens under spread bet. Did you have an suggestions for a link?

     

    31 minutes ago, THT said:

    Stop placement is probably the hardest thing to do with a profitable trade

    Yes, stops are probably more difficult to mange than the entry. If you are looking to understand the thinking of a day trader on a candle by candle basis I would suggest some of Al Brooks's books or videos.

    This one for instance looks at getting into a trend late, entering long on a bull candle close, where the stop must go and so therefore what the position size must be, scaling in and averaging, getting out at average break-even if needed, etc.

    Very dry, matter of fact, dear I say dull presentation (same as the books) but worth persevering with.

     

     

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