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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. S&P big daily bull bar, so far, breaks the down trend line from April 20th on the daily chart ... 
  2. Very good Tradeciety article with accompanying 10 min video explaining how to use 3 related charts to find which currency is the driving force to pick the best trades eg. EURUSD + GBPUSD + EURGBP. Don't miss the link to the vid, top right of page. http://www.tradeciety.com/forex-trading-tips-forex-triad-system/
  3. Nice daily chart showing head and shoulders with price challenging neck line today, from FOREX.com 
  4. Hi  , sorry to say that  hasn't posted for a number of weeks now after he posted that he was having unspecified problems with IG changing some aspects of, and placing some restrictions on his account trading binaries. Looking back through the ASX thread it seems to me that some of his posts on the matter have disappeared (except the one where he praised IGs efforts in trying to resolve the matter, hmm). Sorry can't help further, hopefully someone else will pick up the thread.
  5. Funds continue to build longs in oil ... 
  6. ? IG announce margin increases for FTSE and GB pairs on Brexit ref dates? 
  7. Good comparison chart showing the anatomy of previous break downs of the S&P and where things stand at the moment. Arrow shows current position (blue), still early days. 
  8. Yes i have dipped in and out long on this one. For me the reversal up came on May the 3rd, found support May 4th, confirmed support May 6th and continued up thereafter, found higher support at 10980 yesterday (on top of that gently sloping channel May 11 to 18). All as per your 4 hr chart. From here I would like to see it break through yesterdays high of the day, return and fail a re-test of that level where i would look to enter again as there is nothing in the way till 11200ish. That's as i see the chart in isolation, if this is a retrace I would not expect it to go any higher, in fact the obvious turn point for the bears has passed (the weekly resistance level and top of channel that it just broke) but timing wise, much will depend on the dollar as you say. Fully agree with your final paragraph. I watched the USDCAD for the CAD CPI and retail sales 13:30 today but nothing happened
  9. To be honest I don't think I have ever traded gold. Not sure why, possibly because whenever it's in the news it's done something dramatic. I always prefer a well behaved chart, like USDJPY USE to be, ha.
  10. Yes, I think there is a lot of head scratching going on at the moment in both the indices and the USD. And the commentators have been talking a lot about the lack of credibility of the Fed and their actual ability to do anything anyway. If you missed it, this meme was doing the rounds yesterday, from someone at the BOA. If even they don't have a clue ... 
  11. Good point, but it does mean you will get differing views, but as I was suggesting previous that is also a good thing because there really isn't any right or wrong so being aware of all the possible permutations as future reveals itself means we are able to quickly shift our stance. Nothing loses money faster than unshakable belief. Even if we did predict correctly to begin with it was still only probability. So a pulled back 1000 tick chart shows a handsome triangle with a meaty weekly support/resistance level running right through the middle of it. Price bounced off the triangle support yesterday and has room above to 1270. Closer in there is minor resistance at 1260. Price currently seems to be moving sideways (like everything else today). 
  12. Thinking of entering a trade? 1/ Wait. Have patience. 2/ Expect. Know what you are looking for. 3/ See. Confirmation. 4/ Execute. Follow the plan. It is good advice that novice traders (I still consider myself a novice) should choose one high probability setup and practice it over and over. Why? Because the two big problems of actual trading for the novice are psychology and execution (everything else can be got out of TA for dummies . Concentrating on one setup will more quickly build up proficiency and confidence. High prob setups are less common so you may well need to scan a number of charts, the important thing is to know what you are looking for. What I look for is price action that is signalling the end of a pullback and continuation of a trend so I must see first a higher high and higher low (bull trend). Then I look for a pullback. Pullbacks occur due to profit taking while full reversals occur when counter trenders add their weight so I'm looking for weakening pullback bars (at 40-60% of the move up) that signal the ending of profit taking and absence of counter trenders. I am then looking for a candle reversal pattern (pin bar in the colour of the trend being choice), and for confluence the pattern needs be at a significant level. The best levels being a major or minor support level. Major levels are the ones you draw every morning from the previous highs/lows. A minor one is the level of the immediate prior high and often gets re-tested, it is the repetition of this process that creates the zig-zag pattern that typifies a trend. Set stop and a reasonable target then sit back and have faith in probability. So I am waiting for and looking for a lot things to come together but I know this needs to happen for the trade to remain high probability. I know the market repeats general patterns because I have seen them over the years but the market is like a living meme and will never repeat itself exactly and can confuse. If you have a high probability plan based on what price actually does, stick to it and execute it well, it must work (over time), but to learn to execute it well and overcome the psychological issues will take practice.
  13. S&P Daily. Pin bar bounce off support but little room to move. Not much on the calendar today likely to give it a push in either direction. 
  14. Maybe it's all just a game were playing, but how long can they spin it out for? 
  15. Another gold chart, I captured this as I was reminded of  post on trend line break but knew it was different, another reminder that we all do even the basic tasks differently and on different time frames so there is no wrong or right. Any one of a number of scenarios may be played out so we all need to be aware of possible alternatives. If this version of future predictions proves correct the buy zone in 's chart at 1210 won't get triggered. Glad I looked because i had missed  prior post on a gold conference he attended, good stuff. 
  16. Look, some are starting already ... 
  17. Dollar may consolidate here before a concerted push higher or lower. 
  18. Interesting weekly oil chart ... 
  19. S&P 500 plenty of room below, one to watch ... 
  20. Yes and it's not a pretty sight ... 
  21. S&P; chart vs earnings ...  
  22. Just released IPOS Mori poll boosts GBP. 55% Remain 37% Leave. Brexit The Movie link if interested (1hr12m);
  23. Report of a large option expiry capping audusd from ForexLive ... 
  24. Hi  I can understand the problem especially when English isn't your first language. All platforms are different and that's exactly what demo is for, to experiment with and decide which platform is a best fit, you will find probably none are a perfect match for your needs. Personally I don't collect too much data, instead I just keep a simple journal (spreadsheet) and use the chart itself to give a basic over-view. Do check out the different IG platforms (including the IG version MT4).
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