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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Well that didn't take long did it. From 13000 to 10980 in 28 minutes flat.
  2. Thanks but I will stick with the stats from someone who has methodically researched dozens of patterns each on many hundreds of examples over many years and has published his results for open scrutiny if it's all the same to you.
  3. Big volume on this down move a sign of bear strength and has completely reversed the rise of two weeks ago, price back down and challenging the recent low again. Redrawing the Fib from further back on a 4 hour chart coincides with chart support zones. If the 13000 zone breaks the next level down is 10980. 4 hour chart.
  4. Is that an admission that he did introduce a little chaos to your trading? :smileyhappy:
  5. Hi , not to my knowledge, I think you will have to manually trail it instead.
  6. , It was a response to 's question about taking Buffets advice re; 'buying the lows' and applying it to bitcoin further down in this thread. And is right in his general thrust of argument but there are many ways and time frames to consider.
  7. Excellent question. You have a clear support zone there so risk is defined and you can get in close to that level so your risk is small but the rewards are potentially very big so even with a low win/loss strike rate the trade is not unreasonable. But this particular asset has other problems, margin, spread, slippage, Joe Public madness etc.
  8. Tell us more though, am a great admirer of Mandelbrot and his chaos and fractal theories though must admit his books are hard going.
  9. Markets have been expanding with GDP and population growth for hundreds of years, doesn't mean there aren't cycles though.
  10. So, after two failed strategies you are now pumping a third, you just snatch strategies off forums packed with amateurs one after the other. You never test for anything for yourself, you actually believe the tripe. You would be better off spending the time learning market cycle and discover one size does not fit all.
  11. , WOW, that's impressive. Did he add any chaos to your trading?
  12. Overnight plunge after retest confirmed support turned resistance. Now struggling to hang on to 13000.
  13. Some are trying Intercity but have not reported back, the truth is all brokers are tightening their exposure, increasing margin and spreads while limiting their exposure to long positions but looking at the charts I would be very wary of going long right now. See the last post in the Bitcoin thread.
  14. So a retest is in play at a very important level, using Trading view charts for 15 min and daily charts for longer historical data than IG (MT4) provides. Note the high bear volume during moves on both charts. If the retest holds and the level has turned from support into resistance then the next major level down is as suggests (in another thread) around 13000. The weekly chart is approaching a full reversal bar. Tomorrow is crucial for the bulls to prove this is just a pullback, otherwise look to 13000.
  15. So this was a natural target area for the bears and they will be watching carefully, ready to bail if price is swamped again by buy orders as has been the case previous. If the bulls can't rally to protect this level it will they who will have to bail and price will continue to drop. Still could go either way.
  16. Ah right, we are there. From 17261 at 7 am this morning now trying to tag the prior low at 15490.
  17. The 15776 level is under attack by the bears again today and the momentum is with them. At some stage those buy orders in this zone are going to dry up one would presume, each lift off by the bulls has failed to find follow through. 15 min chart. 100 & 200 sma.
  18. Price action trading and Buy The Failed Dip (BTFD) are not mutually exclusive. BTFD is the oldest and most used strategy since the creation of markets. BTFD is a trend following strategy. Nial Fuller won a million dollar prize in a trading competition last year, that was completely open and transparent, using price action principles. I posted on it last year, you can read about it here; https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Million-USD-Competition-Winner/m-p/5194#M403
  19. The addition of the futures market has changed the bitcoin market which can no longer claim to be long only, though may well remain in a long term up trend there is now far greater risk that sellers will step in to take out long stops. The 1 hour chart looks a far more like a 'normal' market and this will make it easier to trade as the broker now has a more balanced book though there must still be many longs who got in early and are hanging on but they must be starting to think in terms of securing some degree of actual profits over book profits. There was a rumour going round on twitter yesterday that a large quantity of bitcoin was moved onto one of the exchanges (being positioned ready to sell). Who knows. Difficult to study up for as there has been nothing quite like it for generations so don't beat yourself up over it. Best bet is to study up on the technicals and let the fundamentals take care of themselves.
  20. Yes, you are both right & , you can choose a systematic approach as does OFP or a discretionary approach as does TF. It is wrong to suggest though that either approach must fail. The problem with a systematic approach is that the system needs to be made flexible enough to cope with changing market conditions or to simply recognise change and stop trading till the market changes back, but then that becomes discretionary. The problem with discretionary is the absolute requirement to precisely define risk before entering a trade and be willing to accept that risk and so remove fear. Fortunately the risk is easily defined, it is the stop loss amount on entry and during the trade and the stop level should be obvious on the chart in that if that level is breached you have been proved wrong in your assessment. The market will do this regularly but that is not a problem if you have tested your strategy over many trades and know it to be profitable, this applies to both types of strategy. And you must do your own testing and not rely on others to do it for you as we can never all execute a strategy exactly the same. There is a degree of discretion in any system.
  21. , yes, that is precisely my point with regards the win/lose strike rate verses the risk reward ratio. , a tested and trusted strategy removes the fear (psychology). The 'some' I was referring to in the last sentence of my previous post was you and your options strategy (that removes the psychology factor from trading as you have inferred in the past) but most don't need to go that far because they know 'psychology should not enter the equation'.
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