Caseynotes

Still within the bull flag, Dax raced up to tag R1 on the London open while Dow looks at the daily pivot. Looking for a break of the range top and continuation.

Dow, Dax and Ftse put in a pause candle yesterday and not much on the calendar for the rest of the week excepting BoE rate decision tomorrow so looking for trend continuation for Dax and Dow. ASX down in Asian session. 2 interesting stories, Remove all Emotion says Jim Simons https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/how-jim-simons-founder-of-renaissance-technologies-beats-the-market.html And Robert Kaplan Says Steeper Yield Curve a Sign Fed Rates Now Appropriate, https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/robert-kaplan-says-steeper-yield-curve-a-sign-fed-rates-now-appropriate-1.1343406

Overnight Indices mixed, oil down but still in touch with near term resistance, Gold up just above support, USD down slightly after gaping up to resistance. Chart US Oil. Ger composite PMI at 8:55, EU composite PMI at 9am, EU retail sales today at 10am.

Hi, afraid the platform doesn't have that function available, you can only close manually or at a set price level.

Good beat on the PMI figure. 54.7 v 53.5 expected.

Little change so far, both remain in a bull flag. US non-manu PMI at 3pm 53.5 expected (see PMI chart).

PC yes, don't know what's going on there.

"adding even more weight to the global breakouts in progress. Note the Shanghai 50 "big guns" index is up +33% YTD – outperforming *all* U.S. indexes by a wide margin. And no one is talking about it." Macro Charts @MacroCharts MXWO World Index. KOSPI Korean Composite. SSE 50 China 50.

very odd looking chart;

This will probably astonish most followers but doesn't surprise me as I follow this regularly, most just see occasional snap shots and think retail traders are temporary out of sync but it's a continuous phenomena, when the market goes down shorts decrease, longs increase, when the market goes up shorts increase and longs decrease. The reason is, as above, they are constantly trying to pick tops and bottoms and repeatedly get it wrong.

yes, getting tired of repeatedly being stopped out 🙂

hmm yes a bull flag, very bearish ... or try looking at other S&P H1 charts, ... see the difference?

"The word Recession in this business cycle has become synonymous w/ clickbait amongst Media outlets to get ratings & scaremongering amongst AUM hunters in the Hedge Fund Community, who then get terrible returns / lose lot's of $, because they're still living in Macro era 1997-2007" AntonKreil @AntonKreil

Hi, you can only edit watchlists that you have created yourself not the generic ones created by IG.

Flags formed after a strong day yesterday, support seen at the daily pivot so looking for a break past yesterday's high and an attack on R1. H1 charts;

The S&P has it made new all time highs but we see retail traders keep doubling down and go increasingly short as the market keeps going higher (IG clients currently 78% short). We have also seen on this forum people so wedded to their bias they can stand no dissenting view, get hostile if anyone dares to suggest their bias might be wrong and who will hold with being wrong for months and even years on end. In light of the above I refer back to this thread which looks at why most traders lose (see OP) and the number one reason is that retail traders think they are supposed to be picking turning points (tops and bottoms). Though some experienced traders can make a living doing just that most retail traders are just chucking darts no matter how much hopeful confluence to their bias they manage to mangle out of contorted technical analysis. Instead of looking for turning points you should be looking for continuation points. Price approaches a significant level, fine, let's see what happens. Price breaks a level, retests the level then continues on with the break. Price has turned at a level, goes back to retest the level then continues the reversal. Price is trending then attempts to reverse which fails, becomes a pullback and then continues the trend. The retest of a significant level does not need to actually tag the level again but there should be some attempt and clear failure to do so when price then turns to continue on. You are looking to hone that skill to call it right about 50% of the time, the stop loss is just behind the significant level because if the level does get taken out your idea will have been proved wrong. And so long as the take profit average is more than the stop loss average, and you are right 50%, then you will be profitable. So in essence you are looking to ride with the market movers rather than trying to second guess them. And so what does your bias have to do with all this? Absolutely nothing, in fact it's worse than nothing because bias acts like a back seat driver constantly giving directions with no immediate reference to the actual road ahead.

Hi, are you sure the bid or ask price rather than the mid price was not hit?

hi, not sure what you are referring to, the charge is the spread which on Dow is typically 1.6 points though may widen temporarily for short periods on high volatility, can you screenshot the chart to highlight your point.

Strong push up through the all time high for Dow yesterday, Dax follows. Ftse approaching near term resistance, ASX remains mid range. Emerging markets ETF gaps higher continuing the breakout.

Looking increasingly risk on. Indices and Oil up, Gold and Bonds down. Chart Ftse looking to break up past near term resistance. US non-manu PMIs at 3pm continued expansion expected.

no, it's https://www.cotbase.com/ , I've used it for years but a while back they revamped the site and introduced a registration and subscription so I started looking elsewhere but it's still the best one and the basic subscription is free so you just need to register.

Dow COT net positions update;

Earnings calendar for this week, still a few big names to go through;

Dow tagged it's ATH overnight (= monthly chart resistance level purple) and has since just pulled back slightly, Dax is following. Good news data last week shows the US economy remains strong with mostly good earnings reported as well as emerging markets outlook improving bodes well for Dow, and where the Dow leads others tend to follow.

That's correct, an index is a general gauge of the health of a country's economy if the basket contains the largest companies overall or sector performance if it's a specialist index.