Caseynotes

Is any of this stuff actually important?

Following on from this morning's post Dow looking to break through R1 while Dax takes a breather and eyes up R2. H1 charts;

Comparison between US and Japan bond and indices markets. 30 year treasury yield and the S&P dividend yield inverting, This yield inversion made the headlines on Wednesday, the graph below emphasises again the long term change in bond markets since the 1980's and the cnbc article linked below admits this latest development could be bullish for stocks as investors seek yield. The next chart down shows the Japan dividend yield inversion with the 10 year bond yield back in 2007 and increasing ever since as the bond yields head negative, the initial inversion looks to have sparked a rally in stock market. In the longer term this may well be the graph of the future of US and European bond and dividend yields, a new normal. The 3rd chart below shows the current US 2's and 10's and the 3 month and 30 year bond yield inversions. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/the-30-year-treasury-yield-is-now-yielding-less-than-stocks.html Mike Bird @Birdyword; People make a bigger deal out of dividend yields passing above 10yr bond yields than it deserves

not sure, your currency trades must have been on demo as the live account only goes as low as 0.1 for both currencies and indices so I still think you need to look at the live feed connection.

ok, that message usually refers to a connection problem; check your mobile connection, also check the mt4 connection rate and number of dropouts (see pic 1 bottom right corner of mt4), the dropouts number should be only around 2 (the number after the / ) and the rate should be high (thousands). Check the IG server, in mt4 'File' > 'Open an account' pic 2 also you can click on the connection rate box and choose a different data center. Let us know how you got on.

Hi, min position size should be 0.1 as is in the link below, is there any message pop up? https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/what-are-igs-indices-mt4-product-details

Interesting start today, both in sync and well above the pivot, still likely to test support before attempting continuation upward but would expect to find support higher than the pivot and possibly at the orange daily chart resistance levels. No big news today but there may well be caution as it's week and month end and going into a US bank holiday Monday.

Hi, I'm on desktop but I think they are for both, see link. https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-platforms/metatrader-4/mt4-indicators

Sat at range highs except Ftse which continues to struggle. Month end today so watch out for the risk manager tapping you on the shoulder and ordering you to close down all those losing positions 🙂 China release footage of large numbers of armed police training close to Hong Kong and Huawei face new allegations of technology theft by US prosecutors.

Overnight Indices up Gold down, Crypto continues it's fall, USD and Bonds flat, Gold down Silver up. Chart Litecoin down 2.5%. High impact today is the EU CPI at 10am and CAD GDP at 1:30pm. US bank holiday Monday.

If you use the mini terminal from the IG app pack download it will auto save stops, trailing stops, size and targets. Type in the numbers rather than use the arrow up/down boxes, I suspect they occasionally cause a freeze @JamesIG, otherwise it works fine.

Dax and Dow currently testing the range highs, US GDP came in as expected at 2%, consumer spending is up, 10 year yield back up to 1.5% so trade war not affecting the US economy too much while in China exporters are praying the weaker yuan will save them from Donald Trump’s higher trade war tariffs. Should be interesting tomorrow though month end flows and Monday is a US bank holiday which might dampen things. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3024557/china-exporters-praying-weaker-yuan-will-save-them-donald

Hi, on the mt4 platform they routinely slot in an extra decimal place so I might enter the Dax at market with a stop loss of 100 on the ticket but it's actually 10 points, I think the minimum is 50 or 60 which is 5 or 6 points. I don't use pending orders but some have said they have a higher minimum.

Something for the contrarians, latest investor sentiment data; bearish sentiment is up over 42% while bullish sentiment is down to 26%. Barron's and Bloomberg data. Kip Herriage @KHerriage. AAII Sentiment Survey: 26% bulls, 42% bears w mkts just 4% below ATH. Stunning readings. As a contrarian, nothing is more bullish. “It is wise to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

Interesting historical data on HK troubles in relation to the HK 50.

Does someone know something we don't? Following on from this morning's post and we got the anticipated upward continuation but wasn't quite expecting a move straight up to R2. Also WTI is back up above $56, US GDP data still a couple of hours away.

US crude production on the rise;

Both starting above the pivot, as it's relatively close most likely to see a retest and if it holds will be expecting continuation upward but likely to tapper off as we close in on the US GDP data release at 1:30. Algos read and react to the headline figures first, very hard to catch that but as with most releases there is a lot more than just the headline figure which is why there is can be a 30 minute period of whip sawing while the new data is digested until price finally settles down and marches off to a new level, that's what you should be looking for

SSI data just popped up for this one makes interesting reading;

It's all about the US GDP (q/q) today 1:30pm and anything outside of expectations could break this recent range, 2% is the forecast.

Indices mixed, Bonds up Gold up, Oil down Crypto down USD flat. Chart Copper trying to rally. High impact today EU zone business climate 10am, Ger CPI at 1pm and US prelim GDP at 1:30pm expected 2% (annualised).

Here's my chart of the S&P 500, can't really see much difference, can you?

I've been here years, when I started it was with the understanding 90% lost 90% of their account within 90 days and knowing most would give up and knowing most would blow at least several accounts in the learning process if they didn't just give up, so what. Most come into this as if they are walking into a casino, they do a little homework (learn how to play blackjack), maybe they'll get lucky but really they won't.

yes but ASIC are proposing to cut the leverage in Australia from 200:1 to 15:1 and the bonus rebate will go as well so not much left on offer really.

That is correct, S&P is up around 17% this year but that is conveniently leaving out the December drop. Volatility just means price is moving which is good, the Dax today moved down 140 points then back up 140 points which is good if you are day trading, obviously not so good if you are trading longer term, it's all swings and round abouts. Yes Trump is using the strong economy to put pressure on China to adhere to international rules, why bother? Look here's a great new Chinese car but I think I've seen this one before as well, pity the suckers who got ripped off, tough... oh wait, it's us.