Caseynotes

I see a difference between patterns and S/R, PP levels, patterns are less trustworthy and I would normally wait for a pullback/retest, there will always be a pullback sometime. Levels I am more confident with, pivot levels especially if the asset has a history of recognising them, straight S/R levels need more consideration because they are not as easy to draw as many think and are more a zone than a level, and same as patterns there will always be a pullback at sometime. I prefer to see an explosive type break out which usually signals increased volume rather than gradual because it's another sign the level has been recognised and the PA is not just wandering in a zone. The more energetic the breakout also signals to the opposition that if they are going to try to defend they had better use large size. Take a look at the Wyckoff diagrams in this thread and the difference between low and high volume breakouts plus see the first retests post breakout. In the end it comes down to the probabilities of the particular way you play it, if someone is routinely getting trapped trying to catch breakouts the fallback is to wait for the inevitable pullback instead.

So blew straight through 1400 and brought to a halt further down at 1383, thought about an attempt at the gap fill but looks now like preferring a second look at 1383.

Hi, I can expand but could you just quote the bit about the breakouts you are referring back to me, just so I don't trip myself up over the context.

Dax and Dow made the effort to check the pivot then decided to crack on towards a test of the Sunday candle high. The European open might be a bit more lively than usual with so much premarket PA but overall looking for a directional day.

Dow closing on on it's ATH 26951. Dax finally breaks 12463 and retests, Ftse looking to attack the monthly chart resistance level 7527 and Nikkei breaks up past 21616.

After the G20 a shift towards risk on. Indices and Oil up, Gold and Bonds down. Cryptos down, Chart Gold. Today's Econ Calendar; OPEC mtg, China, German and US PMI's.

@jonah88888 & @Foxy, the reason I've been experimenting with so many different ones is to find one that ignores IG's Sunday 1 hour daily candle which badly distorts the calculation for Monday's pivot and S&Rs, they need to be calc'ed from Friday's HLC. IG's own PP indy for MT4 and the online platform won't do it, it's been a few years since I used PRT and can't remember if it does or doesn't.

The big names earnings release dates for July;

Weekend Wall Street up 151 points. The coming weeks high vol events from the econ calendar.

That would be good or it can be done manually or by keeping a log of demo trades as described in the Trade planning thread, it's surprising how many great ideas don't actually work when put to the test ☹️

Ha, you forgot to highlight all the round numbers too, gold is like oil, old school and old school like round numbers🙂 Sooo, you've picked a Fib level at random, put in a buy limit entry order with a 10 point stop, according to your back test stats how often does that work out for you?

Hi Dunn, you are correct with regards the name spread betting. The guaranteed stops are probably a good idea if you know there is likely going to be turmoil but no one saw the SNB pulling the peg, I watched that as it happened, so quick and deadly, even out did bitcoin for excitement, so long as you were sitting on the sidelines as I was thank goodness.

That's interesting @Foxy, yes I'm using the standard version which is H+L+C/3 for the pivot point, though there can be slight variations in the calc of the R and S numbers. Mine auto calc each day as well but there is also the choice of 4 other versions of which Woodies is one. I've got two other pivot indicators and was just comparing the 3 of them and see that they are all the same and match your values except for the R3 and S3 on the one I've been using so I need to ditch this one and use one of the others, thanks.

Hi, it might be quicker to call the helpdesk when they open, it shouldn't be too much of a problem to sort out.

To tell the truth @dmedin I wouldn't think like that, because you could draw all the lines you like on your chart but really price could easily ignore 100% of them instead of just the usual 99.9%. If you look closely at a price ladder or even a M1 candle, you can see the rapid up and down fluctuations as orders and counter orders are processed. No one placing those orders is sure what will happen next. They do not know if their buy contract which is matched to a sell contract will turn a profit, or if the seller will instead. And these are the big guys that know what they're doing and can affect price. As a retail trader once you have entered the market you have handed over all control of that trade to the big guys, you are totally dependent on a big trader coming in behind you to push price in your direction. You may be supported at a level or not, who knows, as stated above even the big guys don't know themselves, you are more likely to be supported between important levels because the controlling side will be reloading and adding to positions while the opposition are gathering up ahead in the rocks above the pass preparing for battle at the next important level. Find the important levels where you can expect battle, identify who has won the battle and the direction of price movement, then look for an entry.

There is the chance price could just take off like a bat out of somewhere very hot but personally if that happened I would just let it go, there will always be a pullback somewhere. There is likely to be a gap on the open even if there was no new news (eg last week) and there may well be an initial attempt to close the gap. Or it could just turn out a normal London or US market open where there is usually a short period of jostling as over night/weekend orders are pushed through and new positions are opened in reaction and it can take a few minutes or as much as an hour before the direction of the morning session becomes clear. That's what I look for, where everyone can see that one side has taken control, once you know direction targets become obvious so then it's just a case of looking for a pullback that weakens, dies and rolls over. Not the most exciting of strategies but the most dependable.

Here is the most important reason to have a plan, some are at the stage where they are realising this is not as easy as it first looked and their hard earned money is disappearing fast, then comes the Fear. "Anyone can place a trade. But doing so when it's most needed requires immense psychological fortitude. You can't teach that. It's not on the internet or in a book. Instead you need to experience the fear. Nurture it. Become comfortable with it." - @thechartist Without a proper plan you have no anchor, no grounding, no base - you won't find that psychological fortitude and the fear will have you floating in a state of paralysis.

Striped down version of a trade plan planner;

Good question @davidbrister, you would have to expect that this being 'new' news not available to the markets before Friday close would shift sentiment away from risk off and towards risk on. If that proves to be the case you could also expect to see the normal associated market shifts such as indices, stocks, oil up and gold, bonds and USD down. The Weekend Wall Street chart is up 111 points on the news. Might not get much reaction from oil as OPEC have their price setting meeting on Monday and Tuesday so oil traders will be cautious but gold we may well see a move lower to test support and 1400 would seem a likely first port of call.

Looks like there has been some real progress on the US/China front at the end of the G20 after all, Xi; Victims of intellectual property theft will be compensated, Xi Jinping tells world leaders Chinese leader also says a channel will be set up for foreign firms to make complaints and Beijing will take ‘major steps’ to further liberalise economy. Trump; Trump says that for now, no further tariffs on China will be added (averting extra $300b in levies) as they restart trade talks. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016578/victims-intellectual-property-theft-will-be-compensated-xi

See this thread;

Has found support here recently, if looking to short I'd wait for the break though looking at the last volume bar it may turn out to be a test and rejection of 13800 before a move back up to test the recent high.

Dax and Dow went different ways after the 2:45 US PMI number was down then Dow got a lift at 3:00 when the consumer sentiment came in higher. @Foxy, that's quite a big difference in the R3 number, I get your R3 figure if I switch the calc from standard to 'Woodies', might pay to check. Dax lifted to run into R2 to the tick.

Hi @HotRod, no they are not automatically closed and there is not a function to close them that is time based, you will need to manually close them yourself before 22:00.

@dmedin you should take a look at this, so instead of the volume bar being coloured by whether there were more long or short contracts (maybe a lot, may be just a few) there is an actual breakdown of the amount of long or short.