Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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After the G20 a shift towards risk on. Indices and Oil up, Gold and Bonds down. Cryptos down, Chart Gold.
Today's Econ Calendar; OPEC mtg, China, German and US PMI's.
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@jonah88888 & @Foxy, the reason I've been experimenting with so many different ones is to find one that ignores IG's Sunday 1 hour daily candle which badly distorts the calculation for Monday's pivot and S&Rs, they need to be calc'ed from Friday's HLC.
IG's own PP indy for MT4 and the online platform won't do it, it's been a few years since I used PRT and can't remember if it does or doesn't.
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The big names earnings release dates for July;
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Weekend Wall Street up 151 points. The coming weeks high vol events from the econ calendar.
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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:
I haven't done any backtesting yet, hence all the wavering. I see that backtesting is possible in PRT so I need to spend time learning how to do it.
That would be good or it can be done manually or by keeping a log of demo trades as described in the Trade planning thread, it's surprising how many great ideas don't actually work when put to the test ☹️
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36 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Right now it looks like it's moved too far away from its 50 MA
Ha, you forgot to highlight all the round numbers too, gold is like oil, old school and old school like round numbers🙂
Sooo, you've picked a Fib level at random, put in a buy limit entry order with a 10 point stop, according to your back test stats how often does that work out for you?
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52 minutes ago, Dunn said:
This is my first time on the IG community and reading a thread. I find this hilarious, and more importantly for the first time have seen some insight in how other traders think.
Don't worry, i know what you mean. The word spreadbetting sounds like gambling because it has the word betting in it. But we're not betting on the spread, we're betting on the movement of price, and i think the reason they call it spreadbetting is simply to give it a gambling legal status to get the tax breaks.
If you buy $1,000 worth of shares and pay $10 commission through a broker, or buy $1,000 worth of shares and pay $1,010 for then through spread differences then what's the difference? I don't see this as spread betting, i see it as trading normally and paying a spread fee.
Spreadbetting offers leverage which is a great thing, as long as you trade with a plan and know exactly how much you're risking then there shouldn't be any surprises. I've never understood when people say leverage is risky, on the platform before you put on a trade you can clearly see the monetary value of your loss should your stop be hit, if you think it's too high, make your position size smaller.
Out of interest do you use the guaranteed stops? The insurance of having it is great, but the premium is pretty high. 99.9% of the time it's not needed, but for occurrences like what happened to the Swiss Franc it would save my esra
Hi Dunn, you are correct with regards the name spread betting. The guaranteed stops are probably a good idea if you know there is likely going to be turmoil but no one saw the SNB pulling the peg, I watched that as it happened, so quick and deadly, even out did bitcoin for excitement, so long as you were sitting on the sidelines as I was thank goodness.
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26 minutes ago, Foxy said:
I have noticed you often have different levels to the Pro-Real Charts but they work fine and are well respected so I have no problem with that. They say the pivot point formula I use is (H+L+C) / 3 and the exact level of R3 was 12487.3
I don't have to work them out, they are on my chart every day and work fine. In fact R2 was 12411 and was very well respected all morning so I guess it's not a case of right or wrong it's what you like to use.
That's interesting @Foxy, yes I'm using the standard version which is H+L+C/3 for the pivot point, though there can be slight variations in the calc of the R and S numbers. Mine auto calc each day as well but there is also the choice of 4 other versions of which Woodies is one. I've got two other pivot indicators and was just comparing the 3 of them and see that they are all the same and match your values except for the R3 and S3 on the one I've been using so I need to ditch this one and use one of the others, thanks.
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6 minutes ago, dragostrade said:
Hi. By mistake i clicked on the option limited risk account and now is active. Can you help me to deactivate it because i cannot. Thank you.
Hi, it might be quicker to call the helpdesk when they open, it shouldn't be too much of a problem to sort out.
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3 hours ago, dmedin said:
I have two Fib ratios, 1396 and 1370, have been wavering which one I'd like to buy at. Settled for 1370. Need a decent pullback after such a run!
To tell the truth @dmedin I wouldn't think like that, because you could draw all the lines you like on your chart but really price could easily ignore 100% of them instead of just the usual 99.9%.
If you look closely at a price ladder or even a M1 candle, you can see the rapid up and down fluctuations as orders and counter orders are processed. No one placing those orders is sure what will happen next. They do not know if their buy contract which is matched to a sell contract will turn a profit, or if the seller will instead. And these are the big guys that know what they're doing and can affect price.
As a retail trader once you have entered the market you have handed over all control of that trade to the big guys, you are totally dependent on a big trader coming in behind you to push price in your direction. You may be supported at a level or not, who knows, as stated above even the big guys don't know themselves, you are more likely to be supported between important levels because the controlling side will be reloading and adding to positions while the opposition are gathering up ahead in the rocks above the pass preparing for battle at the next important level.
Find the important levels where you can expect battle, identify who has won the battle and the direction of price movement, then look for an entry.
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33 minutes ago, davidbrister said:
so simply then - Down on open
There is the chance price could just take off like a bat out of somewhere very hot but personally if that happened I would just let it go, there will always be a pullback somewhere. There is likely to be a gap on the open even if there was no new news (eg last week) and there may well be an initial attempt to close the gap.
Or it could just turn out a normal London or US market open where there is usually a short period of jostling as over night/weekend orders are pushed through and new positions are opened in reaction and it can take a few minutes or as much as an hour before the direction of the morning session becomes clear.
That's what I look for, where everyone can see that one side has taken control, once you know direction targets become obvious so then it's just a case of looking for a pullback that weakens, dies and rolls over.
Not the most exciting of strategies but the most dependable.
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Here is the most important reason to have a plan, some are at the stage where they are realising this is not as easy as it first looked and their hard earned money is disappearing fast, then comes the Fear.
"Anyone can place a trade. But doing so when it's most needed requires immense psychological fortitude. You can't teach that. It's not on the internet or in a book. Instead you need to experience the fear. Nurture it. Become comfortable with it." - @thechartist
Without a proper plan you have no anchor, no grounding, no base - you won't find that psychological fortitude and the fear will have you floating in a state of paralysis.
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Striped down version of a trade plan planner;
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1 hour ago, davidbrister said:
Hey @Caseynotes, after the Weekends USA and Chinas trade talks, whats your feeling on Movement monday morning, Up or Down?
Good question @davidbrister, you would have to expect that this being 'new' news not available to the markets before Friday close would shift sentiment away from risk off and towards risk on. If that proves to be the case you could also expect to see the normal associated market shifts such as indices, stocks, oil up and gold, bonds and USD down. The Weekend Wall Street chart is up 111 points on the news. Might not get much reaction from oil as OPEC have their price setting meeting on Monday and Tuesday so oil traders will be cautious but gold we may well see a move lower to test support and 1400 would seem a likely first port of call.
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Looks like there has been some real progress on the US/China front at the end of the G20 after all,
Xi; Victims of intellectual property theft will be compensated, Xi Jinping tells world leaders
Chinese leader also says a channel will be set up for foreign firms to make complaints and Beijing will take ‘major steps’ to further liberalise economy.
Trump; Trump says that for now, no further tariffs on China will be added (averting extra $300b in levies) as they restart trade talks.
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1 minute ago, FFS_Daytrader said:
How did you get the Bull/Bear volume indicator you are using?
See this thread;
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2 hours ago, dmedin said:
Volume is picking up on the downside again. Might be a good short now.
Has found support here recently, if looking to short I'd wait for the break though looking at the last volume bar it may turn out to be a test and rejection of 13800 before a move back up to test the recent high.
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3 hours ago, Foxy said:
It's been the DOW that's pulled us back every day this week, I just hope we get a bull run for the end of Month. Proreal has R3 at 2490 so I've set that as TP, if it happens it will be a great day.
Dax and Dow went different ways after the 2:45 US PMI number was down then Dow got a lift at 3:00 when the consumer sentiment came in higher.
@Foxy, that's quite a big difference in the R3 number, I get your R3 figure if I switch the calc from standard to 'Woodies', might pay to check.
Dax lifted to run into R2 to the tick.
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1 minute ago, HotRod said:
Hi, I have three questions relating to what happens on a Friday at 22:00 when IG close for the weekend;
- What happens to open trades at 22:00 on a Friday?
- Are they automatically closed, no matter what or are they kept open over the weekend?
- If they would stay open over the weekend is there a way to get them closed at 22:00?
Thanks ... Rod
Hi @HotRod, no they are not automatically closed and there is not a function to close them that is time based, you will need to manually close them yourself before 22:00.
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19 minutes ago, backwardation said:
@Caseynotes I Found this bull/bear volume indicator for ProRealTime. I haven't used it yet, but it seems nice. https://www.prorealcode.com/prorealtime-indicators/bear-bull-volume-indicator/
@dmedin you should take a look at this, so instead of the volume bar being coloured by whether there were more long or short contracts (maybe a lot, may be just a few) there is an actual breakdown of the amount of long or short.
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6 minutes ago, Foxy said:
That we remain to see, I am long on the DAX and hope to close sometime after 21:00 all being well.
May well work out fine if Dax can carry itself over this 12334 which has held it up repeatedly since Monday.
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15 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Cannabis stocks seem to swing to violent highs and lows right now, and the cannabis index is really underperforming. If you like 'trading volatility' then it might be right for you otherwise ... stay away!
It's a chemicals lab processing company rather than just another grower so distillates the components of the plant to be added to other products, so there may well be a large niche for it to slot into in the greater scheme of things as the list of uses grows.
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Correct, but of course any market only spends about 30% of the time trending one way or the other anyway so being able to spot those times is crucial.
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5 minutes ago, Foxy said:
Dow to hit 27000 by 22:00 today, Maybe!!!
That would be fun 🙂 but the ATH? maybe a bit too speculative. Interestingly on top of the G20 uncertainty is today's Week end, Month end and Q2 end flows and I think Trump and Xi aren't meeting til tomorrow so we may end up seeing an exiting of longs before the close instead.
_20190629_09_06.png.fd1b37b1ca943488a90b363ebcb73c61.png)
Indices
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
Dow closing on on it's ATH 26951. Dax finally breaks 12463 and retests, Ftse looking to attack the monthly chart resistance level 7527 and Nikkei breaks up past 21616.