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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. 

    And the only rationale being touted is a fat finger mistake on an order. Someones going to be very red faced around the office today. Same thing happens when a politician or central banker gets loose tongued. Worse still slippage can mean a huge stop gets taken out even though you placed a tight one. Fortunately these are rare.


  2. Yellen speaking on economic outlook and monetary policy today 17:30 BST. Either, or.

     

    Either mon pol is data dependent and no change until data is right so very low nfp means probably no June rate hike.

     

    Or, as per Fed member Mester in a speech after nfp,  one poor number has not changed the overall picture and gradual rate hikes remain appropriate.

     

    But NFP wasn't just a poor number, 

    What will it be from Yellen? Fudge as usual? Probably expect a whipsawing chart throughout a speech with plenty of 'this, but on the other hand that'.

     

     

     

     


  3. 

    Yes, you need to close a position to take profit, or a portion of a position to take profit on that portion, exactly how you split a position will depend on which of the many platforms you are using. You should find info on the mechanical steps for doing so in the help section of the platform you are using.


  4. 

    Good question, losses are potentially unlimited. If you buy something and liquidity disappears you will have no one to sell it on to.

    Avoid this scenario by trading only high liquidity markets (eg only the major currencies, indices, commodities) and consider paying extra for guaranteed stops (at least until you get a feel for the market).    


  5. Good point 

    fear of taking a trade only comes about through not having confidence in your system or your ability to stick to the rules of your system. The only way to get confidence is to keep a record of your trades and see that over time your win rate verses risk/reward are profitable (if the record proves they are not only then change your system). A simple spreadsheet journal will automatically calculate win rate and R and there are a few free downloadable ones if you search google. If that is too much, start off by taking 3 screenshots of each trade (entry, exit and post exit) to analyse as suggested in a fulsome review of the fear problem in the article linked below.

     

    http://www.tradeciety.com/how-to-trust-your-trading-method-if-you-are-still-losing-the-chicken-and-egg-problem/


  6. Dollar index trying to stage a recovery off 9400 but looks weak, may well wait for Yellen speech this afternoon before deciding on direction and impetus of next move. Related pairs moving sideways as a result except GBPUSD which is doing it's Brexit Ref thing.

     

     

    


  7. Hi 

    The 8:00 open, very strong bull bar fired straight into the 6260 where it has met with resistance as expected, interesting to see direction from here. Would still need to capture 6295/6300 for a bias shift to long but with referendum polls coming out thick and fast this and GBP showing lots of nervous volatility.

     

    

     

     

     

     


  8. Just a re-cap on a spike and channel formation. After a spike there can then be an equal measured move up by channel which then often becomes a flag pattern, the longer the flag lasts the more likely it is that price will then retrace back to retest the top of the spike.

    Just sayin is all.


  9. Hi 

    I came up with 6260 as well but was wondering what your rationale was? I see the range in the rectangle as a liquidity block (an area of high liquidity) where bears overcame bulls before and so should do so again if price has retraced back to it. With liquidity blocks you draw a line mid way through and look for price to close in and then rebound back down.

     

    

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


  10. Dollar continues to loiter about this breakout point waiting for something to give it a nudge up or down.

     

    Today 13:30 BST US data release NFP, but don't forget the slew of data as usual likely to cause half hour of whipsawing as each figure gets assimilated (at different rates by man and algo).

    Also at 13:30;

    Average hourly Earnings mom & yoy,

    Trade Balance,

    Durable goods Orders,

    PMI (services & composite).

     

    

     

     

     

     


  11. Hi 

    Good analysis and makes perfect sense, but remember, the market will never make sense. The classic tale of a trend line, needs 3 touches to confirm, but by 5 touches it becomes a trap. Why? Because we think the market is a non living entity but it really is a meme. We all enter the market to take money off some body else without thinking why those other people are in the market - they are trying to take money off you. The reality is that most have better resources and more money than us. The best strategy is not to try to predict but to react and follow.

     

    Below is an update of my chart from yesterday, the breakout panned out, fine - it doesn't matter one way or the other - but as it did break so then look for a place to get aboard short and set a reasonable target, that's it.

     

    


  12. On the daily chart it's easy to see the bulls were in control of the 6100 level and have been since mid March. That would be a great level to get long if price retraced that far again but there was real urgency and they didn't wait and succeeded in getting the bar close above the 6185 weekly support/resistance level.  

    Any short from higher up could only have been seen as a scalp on the retracement back down, possibly to retest  6100 - 6050 but the bulls were always going to step in at some point.

    As per usual, it doesn't pay to try to predict, but try to react. No one can out think the market, if something looks like it should happen it's probably a trap.

     

    

     

     


  13. Yes, that was difficult. Price having failed to get back in range at 3-5 AM continued down, stalled at the 6185 then smashed it. The move back up from 6150 was a strong bull move rather than just a bear profit taking pullback. On the smaller time frames it looked for a while the bears might get continuation off the 1685 but not to be.

     

    Bulls now trying to get a strong opening bar in.

     

    Today

    12:45 ECB rate decision.

    13:30 ECB Presser.

    Tomorrow US NFP. 

     

    

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