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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. You take your eye off silver for a few minutes (days) and look what happens ... 
  2. Just because Mercury is in Bali on holiday does not mean you other Elliott Wavers can slacken off! DX daily still in shock, can really only start eyeing up those support levels immediately below. 
  3. This looks interesting. Market Profile indicator for MT4 & 5 ... http://www.earnforex.com/metatrader-indicators/MarketProfile/ 
  4. Oh no, it's Snapchat now! Jeesuss. Rolf of Tradeciety has just announced (on twitter) he will be posting his trades live on Snapchat. Many on this forum advocate more users should post their trades here and some do. I have never bothered to to check them out, I am more interested in why a trade is taken rather than the actual execution. I doubt Rolf's plan will turn out well. As I have observed on twitter time and again, he will gain a following of people looking for a short-cut to success, like even the best traders he will be wrong at least 40% of the time. The lazy will lose some money, will they then shrug their shoulders and forget, or just stop following, or start some serious trolling. Take a guess. 
  5. Are you demoing on a weekly chart? Another reason why demo accounts are a bad idea. Demo accounts are to allow you to get familiar with a platform and maybe do some back testing (debatable, honest back testing is extremely difficult, sub conscious bias nearly always interferes). But demo accounts will never teach you trading psychology or trade account management, in fact, a demo account will teach you bad habits that will kill you when you go live. If you are demoing on a weekly or monthly chart the 200 pip stops generally needed means that at a 2% account risk per trade then your (real) account size must be at least £10,000 using the minimum £1/pip. But more importantly, how can a demo account teach you to sit through 5 straight losers (of course it will happen). Leave the weekly and monthly charts the the hedge fund managers. Give yourself some room to manoeuvre concerning stop size and £/pip ratio. Best advice ever, practice one setup over and over, start with as small a £/pip ratio as possible with a view to building it up as the practice improves your execution.
  6. See the liquidity area mentioned in Fridays post working here in reverse. Then it was an unfinished auction bear heavy, now it's an unfinished auction bull heavy but clearly both are working round the same level. There is absolutely no reason why this market can't go where-ever it wants to go. 
  7. Excellent advice for traders in general and a specific tip for oil traders. (RBOB - gasoline and heating oil futures) 
  8. Dow Jones Utility Average makes new high, Dow Jones Industrial Average may be about to follow? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-87-year-old-stock-market-indicator-is-bullish-for-now-2016-06-07?link=sfmw_tw
  9. Re; morning spike GBPUSD ... 
  10. Dollar sits on the fence after Yellen speech. Looks like it will be up to the base currencies or Yen to make the running today. 
  11. FTSE broke 6260 and then retested yesterday, now looks to be setting up for an opening run at 6300, clear space above up to 6440. 
  12.  And the only rationale being touted is a fat finger mistake on an order. Someones going to be very red faced around the office today. Same thing happens when a politician or central banker gets loose tongued. Worse still slippage can mean a huge stop gets taken out even though you placed a tight one. Fortunately these are rare.
  13. Yellen speaking on economic outlook and monetary policy today 17:30 BST. Either, or. Either mon pol is data dependent and no change until data is right so very low nfp means probably no June rate hike. Or, as per Fed member Mester in a speech after nfp, one poor number has not changed the overall picture and gradual rate hikes remain appropriate. But NFP wasn't just a poor number, What will it be from Yellen? Fudge as usual? Probably expect a whipsawing chart throughout a speech with plenty of 'this, but on the other hand that'.
  14.  Yes, you need to close a position to take profit, or a portion of a position to take profit on that portion, exactly how you split a position will depend on which of the many platforms you are using. You should find info on the mechanical steps for doing so in the help section of the platform you are using.
  15.  Good question, losses are potentially unlimited. If you buy something and liquidity disappears you will have no one to sell it on to. Avoid this scenario by trading only high liquidity markets (eg only the major currencies, indices, commodities) and consider paying extra for guaranteed stops (at least until you get a feel for the market).
  16. Hi  The change and percent change are daily and I have always presumed it is from midnight to midnight but now you mention it I realise I don't actually know for certain.
  17. Good point  fear of taking a trade only comes about through not having confidence in your system or your ability to stick to the rules of your system. The only way to get confidence is to keep a record of your trades and see that over time your win rate verses risk/reward are profitable (if the record proves they are not only then change your system). A simple spreadsheet journal will automatically calculate win rate and R and there are a few free downloadable ones if you search google. If that is too much, start off by taking 3 screenshots of each trade (entry, exit and post exit) to analyse as suggested in a fulsome review of the fear problem in the article linked below. http://www.tradeciety.com/how-to-trust-your-trading-method-if-you-are-still-losing-the-chicken-and-egg-problem/
  18. Dollar index trying to stage a recovery off 9400 but looks weak, may well wait for Yellen speech this afternoon before deciding on direction and impetus of next move. Related pairs moving sideways as a result except GBPUSD which is doing it's Brexit Ref thing. 
  19. Hi  The 8:00 open, very strong bull bar fired straight into the 6260 where it has met with resistance as expected, interesting to see direction from here. Would still need to capture 6295/6300 for a bias shift to long but with referendum polls coming out thick and fast this and GBP showing lots of nervous volatility. 
  20. Just a re-cap on a spike and channel formation. After a spike there can then be an equal measured move up by channel which then often becomes a flag pattern, the longer the flag lasts the more likely it is that price will then retrace back to retest the top of the spike. Just sayin is all.
  21. Nope. Spike and Channel it is. EURUSD Spike 100 pip and channel approaching measured move 100 pip. USDJPY spike 100 pip, channel 100 pip. 
  22. I think I should have added a spike and flag to my list of NFP Chart Patterns. Price has cracked too many levels to give much back in the short-term and already gone too far to expect a channel on top.
  23. Thanks  Yes!! All my hard work paid off, and I was only a hundred thousand out. Half an hour on and price still spiking, what follows will be interesting.
  24. Hi  I came up with 6260 as well but was wondering what your rationale was? I see the range in the rectangle as a liquidity block (an area of high liquidity) where bears overcame bulls before and so should do so again if price has retraced back to it. With liquidity blocks you draw a line mid way through and look for price to close in and then rebound back down. 
  25. The best game to play today is 'Spot the NFP Chart Pattern' (see pic). After spending all morning pouring over the relevant data my NFP estimate comes out at; 140 000.