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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes

  1. Currently stuck between 7886 and 8035 with key resistance a little higher at 8112. The smoothed RSI is still over 50 (green) but sloping down while the fast and slow RSI MAs have crossed down.

    Always a joy to watch this when it's in a hyper state, it doesn't have much in the way of fundamental drivers rather sentimental and technical. Watching all through '17 and '18 the drivers were clear, the big push started on news big companies were starting trials of the potential for using bitcoin for payments, as the weeks went on more and more firms announced the same sending the chart parabolic. It wasn't til the end of '17 that the first trials started reporting back that bitcoin was slower and more expensive than the systems they were currently using, the chart turned, and as more and more firms announced the same and the abandonment of the trials price plummeted just as fast as it had risen.

    Absolutely fascinating stuff, probably never see the like again 🙂 

    image.thumb.png.f9297c87526038c9310bb06b93992416.png

  2. All 4 indices will be looking to top Sunday's high today having not managed it on a slow day yesterday, failing that probably due a pullback. If resistance can't be beat price always has to look for support, and visa-versa. 

    Trump complaining the Fed didn't listen to him re- not raising rates, chances of a rate cut in July now up over 80%. He is right, the Fed never understood his gaming of the Chinese by using market tops as timing for turning the screw tighter. As we are closing in on the highs again and the G20 at the end of the month will he do it a 4th time?

    image.thumb.png.a7d38095dd2ff7dbfa28ab6f2c4bc03f.png

    image.thumb.png.478c26bea7a78524f128fb4c1b1d078b.png

  3. 5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Isn't the best strategy just to 'buy and hold' and reinvest your dividends over a long period?

    Depends on what you mean by 'long term', it's a good strategy but bear markets do come along occasionally (see pic below).

    image.png.41e2202e12d12a929b4be4a5f5f94da5.png

    • Like 1
  4. "Coming up latter today I'll be showing you why you've been trading the Dow all wrong 🙂"

    Profiting After the Market Closes

    Since 1993, all of the S.& P. 500’s gains have occurred outside regular trading hours, which run from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time. 

    Take a look at this chart from Bespoke as mentioned in the NYT article linked below.

    SPY Returns: Owning outside vs. inside of regular trading hours ('93-present).

    image.png.e7b856549af12ebd103411a6df17c36b.png

    Since 1993, if you bought SPY on open and sold on close each day, return would be a negative 5.2%, if you did the opposite & bought on close and sold on open next day, return would be plus 568%  (meaning that ALL performance came in after-hours trading) Source: @bespokeinvest.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html

    “We can show that the gap exists,” said Huseyin Gulen, a finance professor at Purdue University who has written about the issue. “But at this point we don’t know exactly why.”

    "Buying and holding the overall market — using an E.T.F. like the SPY, or a traditional index mutual fund, or a very diversified portfolio of stocks — has been an extremely profitable strategy if you stuck to it for the last 25 years. On the other hand, buying and selling during the day has generally been a money-losing strategy — one that would have been far more painful if you had traded frequently, incurring steep costs, which would have compounded your losses."

     

     

    • Like 1
  5. 23 minutes ago, Guest Politica said:

    news today is

    • By 5pm today we will have the full list of candidates to be the UK's next Prime Minister
    • Under the new rules, each candidate requires 8 MP supporters
    • Round 1 of voting by MPs will then take place this Thursday, 13 June, 10am-12noon. Result expected 1pm.

    Next PM odds from William Hill (in their popular markets section);

    image.thumb.png.e9a860dd3ee83b6be47f714fbddc76cd.png

    • Thought provoking 1
  6. 2 minutes ago, sonny5 said:

    Thanks , my question do you use the official closing price during normal tarding hours or the close for the after hours for indexes like DAX, WALL St etc....

    It's a difficult question to answer @sonny5, but I suspect it's best to use the price (gaps) on the IG chart if trading on the IG platform. IG get their prices from sources other than just the main exchange which has the Dow listed at the Friday 9pm (UK time) close price of 25983.94. Might be worth getting some stats to see if the exchange closing price is filled after Sunday and Monday London trading sessions but I would be be surprised if that was the case.  

  7. Dax just looking at the daily chart resistance level (orange) overhead while Dow thinks about another test of the pivot coming up to the European open. Expecting a continuation day up from the daily chart but suspect Dax and Dow might look for a market open check of the pivot before hand on the Dow at least.

    image.thumb.png.858174faf20f28e5cc49d9e5752c4fe5.png

  8. 22 hours ago, backwardation said:

    I need a level 2 data for US Crude and SP500 and the DAX.  I already have ProRealTime.  

    - Can I get level 2 data for those three instruments?

    - Can I get an L2 price ladder on PRT or on the web platform?  I see a tradebook on PRT but its not right.

    Hi, L2 data is not provided on PRT or the online platform, you'll need the DMA platform to access L2 data.

    https://www.ig.com/uk/l2-trading-platform

  9. Fren, Swiss and Ger bank holiday today. UK GDP and Manu Prod data at 9:30. Dax and Ftse gapping up Sunday, closed the gap this morning and looking for continuation today.

    image.thumb.png.2f652b256317f663f67b5ce12ff57ebc.png

    Coming up latter today I'll be showing you why you've been trading the Dow all wrong 🙂

     

    • Like 1
  10. 14 hours ago, alexkef said:

    Greece, in the email I got from IG Markets it is stated "On MT4 platform you can trade only with limited currency pair [...] NZDCAD pair is not available on MT4 platform"

    @alexkef,  it may be that IG are going to remove the pair imminently, a while back when another was trying to get nzdcad installed on the demo platform they were told there simply wasn't the order flow going through to justify it.

  11. 11 hours ago, greenscorpio1000 said:

    hello can anyone explain adjustments fees  for indices , all i know is that after 16:30 GMT long your credited or short  debited . Ive only just realised this during last few weeks ,

    Hi @greenscorpio1000,  are you meaning overnight funding fees? They are usually a credit for short and debit for long but can be inverted depending on the components that make up the daily calc. See more here;

    https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/why-is-overnight-funding-charged-and-how-is-it-calculated-

  12. 1 hour ago, Djangi said:

    With Trump announcing decision; on Mexican tariffs last night, FTSE likely to rise steeply on Monday 

    Am short on 7333 is it worth setting a stop loss at (say) 7350 over the weekend, or will just sail through?

    I see the weekend ftse is only 20 points up after the close, the markets did hear about the tariff introduction being delayed earlier in the afternoon but it didn't become official so to speak till after close. It first appeared on twitter immediately after the NFP release and caused that kick back up on the indices charts.

    Difficult to know how the chart will play out, certainly keep an eye on the ftse weekend chart and consider @Kodiak's suggestion of a hedge. Putting an order in now won't be action'd til the open and if there is a gap there will be slippage as you suspect.

  13. 3 hours ago, Rubious said:

    He notado que la posicion USD/JPY "long" produce interes positivo en mi cuenta. El resto negativos. Porque? Hay algun par mas (long or short) que  produzca interes positivo?

    Gracias

    Hi @Rubious,   generally you will receive interest on a short and pay interest on a long but due to the changing nature of the calculation this is sometimes inverted. You can check the current bid and offer swap rates on the new platform from the watchlist once you have added the watchlist to the workspace as in the picture below. See the linked page for more information.

     

    por lo general, recibirá intereses a corto y pagará intereses a largo plazo, pero debido a la naturaleza cambiante del cálculo, esto a veces se invierte. Puede verificar la oferta actual y las tasas de swap en la nueva plataforma desde la lista de seguimiento una vez que haya agregado la lista de seguimiento al área de trabajo como se muestra en la siguiente imagen. Vea la página enlazada para más información.

    image.thumb.png.39bc116135fb497794af9c7b18f317c7.png

     

     

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