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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. Hi  

     

    Funds are only available for other trades once position is closed,  is right, once there is discernable direction in favour, close out the opp trade, think to open a small hedge again in the opp direction once price threatens to turn again (as it will inevatably do) and look to increase hedge and decrease main bet if turn developes into real reversal.

    PS I hope you are playing about on demo.

     

    Listen to;

    https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-traders/093-ben-blb_capital

     

    from the list;

    https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-traders


  2. Good John Stepek article on potential outcome scenarios, thanks .

    Latest ABC poll headline says Clinton 47 and Trump 43 but headlines didn't mention pollsters asked to speak to 'youngest voting member of household'.

    CNN routinely over sampling Democrats +8 to +12 and still Trump closing. 

    Basic thinking if a Trump win. Short USD and S+P. Long gold, yen, swiss franc.

     

    


  3. The reason for some pundits thinking a moderate shock drop then rally on a Trump win is that he has always polled higher on the economy than Clinton and also declared a determination to lower corporate taxes and bring the trillions being held of off shore back home.

    Even with the FBI backing off it may still be closer than many think re; persistent over sampling of Democrat supporters in the polls. I wouldn't try to call it, as I say 'popcorn on standby'. 


  4. Haha, wikileaks is now more reliable than main stream media (MSM) for news. Their (MSM) caricature of Trump is fun (the clown), the reality of HRC is frightening, see #SpritCooking, see #PaytoPlay, see creation of ISIS after US attempt to force oil pipeline through Syria.

    Ur right about demo, it's not like the real thing at all, my initial strategy worked on demo then clearly did not work live, live and learn. 


  5. Increasing speculation on the possibility of a Trump win in US election. Many pundits talking of the increasing likely hood of a Trump win causing an initial S&P500 and USD puke then rally meaning a big drop then steady recovery on to bigger highs. All bets are off re tech analysis on all charts until election results. Keep your finger off the trigger and instead grab the popcorn, this should be fun.

    Don't be in unless you already know the result.

    Wait for the action and enter on the reaction.


  6. Consider AUDJPY. At top of multi year bear channel re-confirmed by pin bar 3 bars ago (daily) and pin bar forming on the weekly. The pair is outside direct news buffeting but any kind of upset in the elections could see a big move into safe haven Yen and send price heading for the bottom.

     

     


  7.    

     

      I like all your points but would highlite specifically 3 and 5.

     

    Get a checklist, 4-5 things the chart must have or I can’t enter, so entries become mechanical, there is no um or ah about it. You have of course backtested this and so know it works (not everytime but over time).

     

    And, not only don’t move your stop but look at the chart, if the chart structure that initiated the entry has evaporated don’t bother waiting to be stopped out just get out.

     

     True, patients is all. Chart structure is everything. No matter how badly you want to get a trade on if the chart is lurching about with big tails in both directions on many candles that chart is telling you it doesn’t know what’s going on – keep out, don’t punt. Look for a chart that is quietly, methodically moving from one level to the next.


  8. Hi    

     

    Good question(s), 'How you trade'

    Question 'I have blown up my account again, what am I doing wrong?'

     

    I started a thread a while back – ‘starting over again’ I think it was called but to recap.

     

     

    The same principles apply no matter what time frame you use. If you have millions you can afford to play the weekly chart because your stop size needs to be 100+. If you are working full time and trading part time you should be playing a 4 hour chart as the stop sizes are 20-50, you can play that at minimum position size 1£/pip. If you are learning, reduce your cost of doing business by choosing markets with the lowest spreads and good liquidity (eurodollar, cable, and dollar yen) oil and bund lurch price wise (don’t pullback to allow late entry), don’t try to learn on such markets.

     

    If you are choosing lower time frames you are intraday and need to be sat in front of your screen all day, if you can’t do that then go back to the 4 hour chart.

     

    The on screen multi-time frame signal generator is well known but IMHO does not work. On a 1 hour or less (I use 1000 tick) I use a 50 ema as a ‘only go long above, only go short below) indicator. I use a basic momentum indicator to show force (MACD, KST, TRIX, they are all the same) but my trigger is a test to try and gain control of the 20 ema. A bounce off the 20 ema on the right side of the 50 ema with momentum, - is high probability. If that kick off the 20 ema is a PIN bar, a TWIN bar, or an ENGULFING bar then that is a higher probability setup, if you practice and execute it well.

    Never forget CHART STRUCTURE IS EVERYTHING. If it looks like poo it is poo.

     

    I have over simplified because I can not distill years into sentences.

    Protect your account. If you have a good system the market will always be there, if you blow your account the market will always be there but you won’t.


  9. 16 min morning briefing vid with a look at GBPUSD and EURGBP re: GDP data later today. Also a looks at AUDUSD and AUDJPY  (John Kicklighter at DailyFX).

    The timing of these daily reports is great as he makes them late US time so they are up to date for Euro session open.

     

    https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2016/10/27/GBPUSD-Set-for-Another-Break-on-Volatility-with-UK-GDP.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr

     

     

     

     


  10. Yes   If you are playing the channel then the top is time to exit longs and look for an opportunity to get in short though that spike down on the 24th would have already hit a trailing stop.

    Keeping in mind alt. scenarios I was looking at that liquidity block (area of high liquidity) on the daily chart from mid November to mid December that was the spring board for a major leg up. Worth keeping in mind.  

     

    

     

     


  11. Always possible  . But that was serious buying at the 9750 level and a good place for those expecting a rate hike soon to get aboard or add. Price staggering now at prior resistance, will the selling here be enough to flush out those who bought?

     

    


  12. This guy gives a great daily report on FX majors, about 20 min long. Mix of fundamental and technical analysis usually on the daily chart and zeros in on specific points of interest. Great educational input. DailyFX now a sub of IG. Today's is on breakouts and assessing potential follow through.

     

    https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2016/10/20/What-GBPUSD-and-EURJPY-Can-Tell-Us-About-AUDUSDs-Breakout.html

     

    

     

     


  13. 12 min video on trading journals, how they can help to develop your trading and eliminate costly mistakes. The vid is made by Rolf of Tradeciety for Edgewonk who market a ‘pay for’ excel journal but there are a few free downloads on the web such as ‘Trade JournalV2’ and ‘Trading log V3’ excel spreadsheets. (I prefer the V2).

    As these are spreadsheets so a lot of the input is by drop down boxes so quick to use and the variables can be changed to suit the individual trader plus totals such as strike rate and risk reward ratio are calculated automatically.

    The main difference between the free and pay for are that the free ones don’t do projections.

     

    Below is the link to the vid then some screen shots of V2 and V3.

     

    https://t.co/7KDyw6uXdd

     

    

     

     


  14. Hi 

     

    The ‘mid’ is half way between the mkt sell and mkt buy and is generally known as the ‘price’ but you can’t buy or sell at this number. The buy and sell price can be displayed on the chart using the indicator ‘Orderbook volume’ or ‘Bid-ask colour band’ (as stated in previous post)

    These numbers will change as the bids and offers in the order book change and the spread will widen and narrow throughout the trade and especially at times of very high or very low volume.

    To try to change the chart to register the one or the other would disadvantage you even more on the round turn (in then out of a trade).

    Best to note the spread size during your entry planning and add that to your risk calculations.


  15. Hi 

    Yes, but the point is the degree of risk you are willing to take on in light of the potential for high volatility matched with low liquidity. Once a market starts tanking only a bank stepping will catch you (there is no liquidity in a crash until a bank steps in).

    A similar situation exists for unexpected news releases. Once a market starts moving fast in one direction no one wants to take that contract off you to get you out of the trade. Or, conversely, if you are trying to get into a fast moving market you get a no fill on your order or a bad fill (slippage going in because you can’t compete for speed).

     

    So you start entry planning with a risk assessment. I don’t play actual news releases because the increasing spread and the potential for high slippage and whipsawing decrease the opportunity for success and increase the chance of a stop being hit.

    The ‘no charge for guaranteed stops (GS) unless hit’ is new and welcome, previously their cost added to a woefully widening spread but news events and high volatility need larger stops and there is an increased chance the stop will be hit so the cost is still there. Occasional small amounts of slippage are not a problem, flash crashes are rare and nearly always come with a waving red flag.

     

    I heard people on twitter saying what a great repeat trade the Swissy was with the SNB peg, I thought they were mad.

    I saw the whipsawing during the referendum vote, I thought people playing that had very deep pockets.

    The last GBP crash was always on the cards given the uncertainty caused by the referendum outcome and talk of potential USD parity.

     

    I still prefer to keep out of situations where the market doesn’t know what to do and wait until things have settled down and it does know. Hence, in my risk assessments I have never felt the need to increase the potential cost for a GS. 

     

     

    In my 10,000 account size example I should have qualified that in more detail by saying, if you had a 10 pip stop you would have been wiped out with 400 pip slippage on a 3% risk management strategy but with a 50 pip stop you would have survived, because the larger stop would have necessitated a smaller position size. Yes, a GS would have prevented disaster but do you need to apply it to all your trades and so significantly increase the cost of doing business?

    Risk assess and apply it where you feel it is warranted.

     

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