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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Yes I agree, and I thought that was a particularly good, in depth explanation of what you should be looking for in a chart, add your indicators if you like for as you say corroboration but don't let indicators obscure the view. The basic chart is always trying to signal intention because the executed orders that make up the bars can't be hidden so are real and live, the likelihood of success often depends on where on the chart these intentions are signaled. And as for paid for tools, try to look back at the career of the developer, you usually find they come up with a new one every 18 months or so, presumably that's how long the hook works for on enthusiastic punters before realisation dawns?
  2. Hi  I have in the past played about with the indicators you mention but wouldn't rate them any higher than any other. I'm sure I read somewhere that past performance is not a reliable indication of future success. Once you've worked your way through the list of indicators take a look at this, ... https://www.theforexguy.com/trade-forex-without-indicators/
  3. Hi  &  sorry if I have missed something but doesn't the Bid- Ask colour band (on price) indicator already do that? 
  4.  All your points in both posts are strong and valid but if you are starting out part-time trading you can't do years of full-time learning before dipping your toe in the water. So, learn basic money management, learn a simple strategy, practice it over and over til you get it right, use a simple trading e-journal to tell you when that is (your strike rate and R go up instead of down). Start on demo and move on to live at lowest possible rate and build that up as your figures improve. Then keep that going as you learn a new strategy on demo and incorporate that into the live account once it works on demo too. Being part-time you can only use long time frame charts (between 1 day and 1 hour I would suggest) and at first you must be swing trading (buying the failed dip), it is the most obvious high prob strategy, so scan the majors for a trending chart to apply it. Use a auto trailing stop to negate the whole decision making side of exits (learn that later, get the entries sorted first). The second strategy to learn will be the second most obvious, range trading. To start keep it simple and basic, learn as you go, protect your capital by being ultra selective and only taking the best, most obvious swing setups, and by keeping bets and stops as small as possible. Notice that a faltering pullback on a trending chart is signaled by decreasing sized bars, perfect for getting a tight stop behind once they change colour. Always know where the 20 ema is and if it's being respected (which it will be if the chart is still trending). So look for a pullback to falter and bounce around the 20 ema to continue with trend (and momentum), that is a high probability swing trade entry. Don't worry about sitting though the next pullback, let the auto stop take you out so you can repeat the process if it sets up again. Look at the chart at the start of this thread to see what this looks like. The title 'getting started' meant just that and all these contributions in this thread are sound advice for a novice, poor  didn't know what she was letting herself in for.
  5. A very commendably fulsome list  guaranteed to put anyone off trading for life.  describes the process very well but the process takes years to accomplish and most of which is not needed to make a start. Yes there is a lot to learn but learning takes time, especially the difficult stuff, there is a good reason why Uni courses are 3 years long and I think that list would make a very good basis for a Uni course. But ... The questions can not be answered until there has been some experimentation and that means making a start first. Make a start, keep it simple, learn as you go. Protection of capital is the first priority. Having some fun is the second.
  6. 's getting started intro made me think, firstly if she's looking for tips from us lot she must be getting desperate, but also, if I was starting over (and had a full time job) how would I do it knowing what I know now? Assuming the basics eg money management etc have been learnt, I would; use a 4 hour chart (bc full time job), only look at majors (low spreads), keep out of confused sideways action (bars with big tails in both directions), keep it simple (minimum clutter on the chart). I would want one simple and one complex momentum indicator eg; 20 ema and 'Know Sure Thing' KST which is based on rate of change (yes you can see momentum on the chart but lacking experience ...). I would choose one high probability strategy eg; buy the 'failed dip/sell the failed rally' and keep practicing just that one until I made it work (getting execution right is hard). I would keep a simple self computing spreadsheet journal to keep track of performance (running total of strike rate to compare with risk/reward ratio. Free downloads available on the net). For confidence I would also consider using a trigger indicator such as RSI divergence, but not for finding major tops and bottoms but for micro divergence during pullbacks (setting at 2;30/70;20 instead of 5;30/70;20) So on the chart I am looking for the two momentum indicator slopes to coincide for confluence and to dictate entry direction (price above ema for long, below for short), wait for price to push past prior high/low, then pullback to around the 20 ema, then a divergence signal trigger bar as the pullback falters (wait for signal bar to close). Enter as the next bar eclipses the signal bar, add a auto trailing stop and close your eyes. Does this work? will depend on execution as does everything else, avoiding a confused chart is essential as always. Here is what the current EURUSD chart looks like; 
  7. Good quote on this topic coincidentally popped up this morning. 
  8. Yes, everything and anything is possible until price action reveals price's immediate intention and those not already on board rush in and increase the momentum of a move (such as on a breakout). The best indicator to predict the future of price must be insider information but I can't find that one on the drop down list. People do stand in front of the train because the regret of being wrong is too much to bear. Best to realise this is a numbers game and being wrong will always be a part of it so keeping loss to a minimum is paramount and is just the cost of doing business. That remains the main reason I use a journal, I can quantify how much I am right or wrong and that gives confidence, if I tinker with my strategy it soon shows up, good or bad.
  9. Thanks  I must admit I did like the topical Donald Trump example, written by he of the Dilbert cartoon fame. You are right, check lists for entry are essential and help to prevent repeating mistakes, you would think a hit to the wallet over and over would be enough but there is always 'this time it's different'. Some make a list of repeated mistakes with check boxes to tick for each digression to visually highlight and help curb repeats. Here is a good article on placing stops. https://www.forexcrunch.com/top-10-scary-facts-about-placing-stops/
  10. Thanks  for making that the day AFTER the Aug bank holiday, much appreciated.
  11. Good question re; what to do with my non-existent multi-billion pile in prep for down turn, neg rates. There would seem to be only 2 options, 1/ take the lost (insurance payment) of negative rates (soon to be here as everywhere else) for the safety of Govt bonds, hence the BoE recent failed bond buying round (no one wanted to sell), or, 2/ spread it thin and wide (world wide) with as much diversity as possible. A blanket hedge. Not so keen on everything into gold, makes for a lumpy mattress. I see Soros continues to load up on indices shorts but god knows how deep his pockets are? I doubt he has a stop, just waits for a margin call and organises another loan.
  12. Hi , as you know it is all a bit of a game with these minutes and speeches, they are always couched in a language to give clues, hints and misdirection but don't actually say anything for fear of being accused of pre-empting actual data releases. But the Fed does control US interest rates and if they were to cut them (as an example) and you had your multi-million/billion? pile in US dollars you would be just as quick to bale as everyone else hence big market moves lasting days or weeks on an actual event. The cat and mouse foreplay will always be important and will usually spark a reaction. I think I saw yesterday betting for a September rise go up to around 50/50.
  13. Dollar index finally breaks 9500/30 after holding for over 6 weeks. Recent terrible retail sales data and revised down GDP predictions caused a rapid slide but price rallied on Fed member Dudley's comments yesterday that a September rate hike was still very much on the cards. Last FOMC meeting minutes released today at 7:00 pm but watch out for Fed member Bullard speaks at 6:00 pm. 
  14. 2 great articles on a the very real phenomenon that is cognitive dissonance and how it affects our (trading) views. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/148844611656/the-greatest-cognitive-dissonance-trap-of-all-time http://www.tradeciety.com/why-trading-failure-is-in-our-dna-and-how-to-fix-it/
  15. Nice clean run for EURUSD this morning now stalling at 11300, US CPI data release at 1:30 pm then US Indy Production figures at 2:15 pm. FOMC meeting minutes released tomorrow. When will BoJ step in to choke Yen rise? May wait for data releases and watch the reaction.
  16. Yes, the trigger is important as is keeping losses small, if the trade doesn't take off as expected I may well be wrong and should therefore consider just getting out for a small loss, it may be just bad timing and I would rather a couple of attempts at entry than sit and watch the loss grow before realising I was definitely wrong. That be part of the planning process, knowing what you expect to see, where and when you expect it. As soon as the trade starts deviating from the plan get ready to pull the kill trigger, just as readily as you pull the entry trigger.
  17.  Don't worry, I would never rule anything out ha. Set ups occur all the time but if they don't trigger you can only shrug your shoulders and keep looking, even when they do trigger near half still fail. But seeing something develope means you are already planning and preparing and prevents spontaneous entries which do worse.
  18. Aussiedollar may continue down from here. Iron ore price gains responsible for previous weeks rise leveling out now. Rejection of 7700, pullback after 12 and 1am bars surge down looking tired. 
  19. The problem the DX has at the moment is it's dependency on rate rise speculation. On the calendar there is US retail sales tomorrow but more important (re rates) is the FOMC minutes from the last meeting released next Wednesday. The 9530 level proved significant yet again, the prospect of good retail sales may encourage a retest of 9650 pressuring the basket currencies. GBPUSD retail has turned short for the first time since Aug 4th (Dailyfx SSI). Yen remains out of sync. 
  20. Big 8am session opening bear bar off a double top at 11190 pulling price back through the 11160 level mentioned yesterday. RSI back below 50. On a smaller time frame I would like to see a retest and rejection of 11160 then look to enter short for a possible retest of 11100. 
  21. That is an interesting power bar (10am) through resistance (11160). Clearly a concerted effort but lacking follow through so far. Will it stick or prove false? Keep an eye on the DX chart as it approaches long term support at 9500/30 and the US JOLTS jobs data at 3pm. Though it is delayed it covers non-farm job openings and considered by some as something of a leading indicator. 
  22. No I don't think "this time it's different", I think "this time it's the same". Stocks, housing and money would appear to be over valued and due a correction, the stock and housing markets are likely to go lower while that abstract construct called money will continue to be subjected to malicious contortions dreamt by increasingly devious economists. Perhaps we should never have started issuing bonds or left the gold standard but we are where we are. But everything wont crash to zero and as the 'this is the top' chart implies, every turn is a new opportunity.
  23.  I would usually be out before day close of any trade and hardly ever hold a trade over the weekend. I tend to have set targets but change their basis depending on the market. A faster market I look to levels for targets and reduce position size, average days I look at the ATR and the flow of push and pullback for smaller targets with larger position size.
  24. Ha, there is no problem with the theory production produces wealth though, as you say, there also needs to be consumers, but only Stalin's communists made a mess of that. As for the manipulation of the economy (usually for political purposes) therein may be a cause for the need for corrections in market valuations, a very routine occurrence as the 'this is the top' chart shows. UK data today, UK trade balance non-EU (June) +£4.16 bln vs minus £2.56 bln expected, so there are consumers out there. Manu production (June) 0.1% vs minus 0.1% expected.
  25. Yes, that is what I love about levels, they are unambiguous lines in the sand. See how price respects them (or not) to gauge their current significance. The 10200 and 10270 are clearly important (pivotal) and once the orders are cleared out price must move on, which way is not particularly important to me, it is the momentum of movement once either level has been cleared that creates opportunity.
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