Caseynotes

S&P looking to go higher today after the long tailed doji bar yesterday, currently back at 2812.85. Daily chart;

RE; the yield curve inversion, an interesting take on the US 10 y Treasury. Monthly charts. Mike Valletutti, CTA @marketmodel Textbook retest after textbook rejection at 200 MA Yield lows are in. $TNX $TBT

Dow, Dax and Ftse have halted the climb back up to make a base camp, Dow stalling around 25600 on it's climb up after Friday's fall, Dax tagged the 11404 mentioned in yesterday mornings post. Fste stopped at 7207. The London open should show direction from here. Nikkei was doing well until an hour ago when it suffered a large gap down seemingly on the CPI data release dropping to 0.4% from 0.5%. US consumer sentiment today at 2 pm.

Hi Gareth, sorry, didn't see this post before. The ig4setup file is for mt4 itself, the apps file is called IG-MT4-Apps click on the box 'Download your indicators'. from the page you linked in your post above. If you've not already noticed some are indicators and some, such as the mini terminal, are EAs so you need to scroll down the navigator pane to find them.

Mid day Dax and the early down move stopped at 11267, the move up capped at 11390 then a pullback and now another attempt to move higher. H1 chart;

Yes @Kodiak, the first head and shoulders can be said to have played out though not quite making the full measured move while the inverse H&S broke the neckline last week but got stomped on by the bad Ger manu PMI on Thursday. Nothing much news wise except maybe brexit or US GDP data this Thursday to give it a push either way at the mo.

A small gap up on the Dow but quickly cancelled by an Asia inspired continuation down. Dow resting on 25373 with the above mentioned important weekly support level not far below at 25214 while there is prior support turned possible resistance above at 25503. Dax in a similar position resting on 11284 but below that is a long drop down to the weekly support at 10861, above is prior support turned possible resistance at 11404. Ftse has dropped down into clear space with support at 7080 and resistance above at 7262.

Weekend Dow gets an early boost from the just released official summary of the Mueller report (also mentioned in the Sat morning post above). Trump (and all connected to him) no evidence of any Russian collusion or obstruction of justice.

In the post above I wrote how the news of the inverted yield curve broke mid day Friday and may have contributed to the continuation down for the indices Friday afternoon, but before you all pile in short Monday morning there are a few important points to consider. While it's true that the inverted yield curve (10y/1y) often precedes a recession, in the last recession of 2007 it preceded it by nearly a full 2 years. As an indicator that might be stretching it a bit. In fact the average lead time of the 9 recessions since the 1950's is 14 months, so you might want to take your finger off the sell button just for the moment. Pic 2 is also interesting and shows a following recession is not a dead cert and also that currently the inversion has only just touched into negative territory. And in pic 3 we see that the more widely used 10y/2y has not inverted at all (yet?). Like all indicators it's indicating possibilities, something to be aware of, until there's price action confirmation I would keep the finger off the trigger.

Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs, Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, then mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend. Ftse gave up all Mon-Thurs gains plus some as did the others. More interesting news that came out after the US close was that there would be no further indictments from the Mueller inquiry which is finally wrapping up, so no chance of a Trump impeachment on that score. That may make an impression when markets open and provide a boost, but if the fall continues the level to keep an eye on is the Dow support at 25214. Included is the S&P daily, worth keeping an eye on this as well to see if it can turn the 2812.85 resistance level recently broken into support.

Dax dropped down to 11464 (Blue), now trying to bounce back.

Ger manu PMI 44.7 actual vs 48 expected Dax falls back after capturing 11601.

Strong bull day for Dow and Ftse yesterday, Dax still struggling to keep up, Ger PMIs today at 8:30, manu expected at 48 (47.6 last month, less than 50 is contraction) Ger services PMI expected 54.8. French PMIs at 8:15 an EU PMIs at 9:00. US PMIs at 1:45. On the Dax H1 yesterday's low 11464 or H1 resistance at 11601 are the initial targets. Ftse sitting mid way between H4 support at 7292 and H4 resistance at 7370.

Dax trying to punch down through 11500, if the drop continues next level down is 11472 then not much in the way down to 11400.

@NickoMacca, pleased that seems to have been sorted, it was unusual to have gone on for so long. Thinking of my reply to you previous post about closing trades and my replies to another thread I should have added a proviso, leveraged sb and cfd's are not usually a problem nor share dealing in general but be aware that if you are looking to trade in very illiquid stocks IG won't automatically act as a market maker and take the trade off you but will instead go to market to find a buyer/seller for you and if one is not currently available they can't close. This basic rule applies to any brokerage, very illiquid stocks are a specialist market and IG tries to keep them off their books.

Good read in the APAC brief on the double edged sword of the FOMC meet yesterday causing an initial jump higher in indices on reduced expectation of rate rises then reflection and price recall with future growth not so certain and a reduction in general risk appetite. Gold took off and hasn't looked back. Same for USD except in the opposite direction. Dow is currently looking to retest support at 25658 and same for Dax which is heading down towards 11569. Ftse with it's Brexit concerns coiling down mid range and Nikkei heading to close around support at 21422. H1 charts;

Something seems to be stirring in Downing street, May wanted an extension to June 30th, EU says May's letter arrives too late and rumoured to demand extension must be to Dec, May calls a cabinet meeting today which lasts just minutes before they are all back out on the street with long faces (according to Guy Lambert BBC). Rumours that May will make a statement at some time soon today. Breaking news that Tusk to make a statement on Brexit at 1600 GMT

Hi @NickoMacca, occasionally the odd glitch has turned up on the demo platform but I've not seen anything on the forum here about any problems with the live platform closing positions. This particular demo glitch is a bit odd in that it has spanned a couple of days. A brokers demo platform is used by the brokers technicians to test updates and new features before moving them onto the live platform so it's not surprising there is the occasional fail.

Good and fairly extensive article on trends, trend following and trend trading. http://www.newtraderu.com/2017/01/30/guide-defining-trading-trend/

Interesting day yesterday with an unexpected shoot for the top and fall back. Getting in on a high immediately before FOMC would have been ambitious and the market seems to have thought better of it. FOMC at the changed time of 6:00 pm today with the presser at 6:30.

@TrendFollower, your every post has implied I can't or won't answer your oh so virtuous questions. I keep throwing back to you that if you can't even be bothered to look at what I'm posting then your questions are not worth answering. You have challenged nothing, all you have done is sought to undermine a basic principle with absolutely no evidential input of your own. Debate is not 'I'll ignore everything you say while I critique it'. You have offered nothing to this 'debate' while clearly seeking to derail the thread. You have totally wasted my time by arrogantly not even bothering to view that which you have been repeatedly disparaging. I know exactly where you can stick your 'thumbs up'.

@TrendFollower, for the 4th time, the video answers your questions but you are clearly determined not to view it. You are intent on replying to posts without making any effort to consider the OP at all, if that is the case you should start a new thread and stop trying to hijack the thread of the OP.

@TrendFollower, you have not challenged what I have posted because you have not referred to the actual presented subject matter at all. For the third time, your questions are irreverent because you will not relate them to the subject matter, you would not even be asking them if you had bothered to view and consider the subject matter. The video explains exactly how you can copy institutional traders, you either ignore that or astonishingly still haven't bothered to view it. Your generalised uninformed waffling while refusing to view or consider and relate anything to the presented subject matter is simply a waste of everyone's time, without any relevant context to the post you are replying to leaves me with nothing to answer.

@TrendFollower. You reply to a post you could not even be bothered to look into while pretending it is all in the name of debate. You have not asked any valid questions because you are unable to make any reference to the subject matter contained within the post you were replying to. In your post of 'questions' you have at least 5 sentences finishing with a question mark none of which could be considered relevant because you clearly hadn't actually watched the video in the first place. You are not therefore adding to any debate or understanding as nothing you print has any context with the actual subject matter I posted.

@TrendFollower, if you want to debate something it pays to take the time to look at the case being put forward before refuting it. Firing off a reply to a post in a thread attacking what is just your own vague notion of what may have been said is neither professional nor polite. Copying institutional traders and market movers can be done by looking at supply and demand levels, if you want to learn more I suggest you take a look at the video.