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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. JPY bank holiday today. Light week for news this week so will be interesting to see how the indices handle the recent resistance levels clearly marked. China 300 chart added though I think IG might be phasing that out in favour of the more popular China 50. H4 charts.
  2. Overnight USD down. Oil down and Gold up, Cryptos down. Chart Bund takes a breather (not sure why there are no Friday candles on the Bund daily chart). Not much on the calendar for today.
  3. If you like Heiken Ashi hindsight you'll really like Renko hindsight. This is a MeanRenko chart (sort of a Renko/HA crossover) of that 5 minute 500 point drop on BTC yesterday. 10 point Renko blocks with WPR obos exit arrows and a 120 Hull MA.
  4. Though I've written a lot about this since early 2018 pointing out every confluence of the market highs and Trump ratcheting up the stakes in the trade war others on twitter now doing the same (see pic below), it's worth revisiting this as the cycle keeps repeating itself so let's review the causes. A long while ago China and the WTO reached an agreement whereby China agreed to certain commitments and would be allowed full access to world markets, great, only China then reneged on the commitments while enjoying booming exports. Obama and Merkel decided to do nothing. That caused a bit of a problem, if you're playing Monopoly and someone is cheating they will end up the winner if no one is prepared to challenge them. Along came Trump, he decided to take on China and it's intellectual property theft and restriction of foreign access to the growing Chinese market (no FANGS here for a start). And so the trade war begun. Trump was smart, only attack from a position of strength and avoid using the anti Trump Main Stream Media for announcements. So when the US indices reached a high in early 2018 he announced the first salvo of tariffs on China using twitter and thus avoiding any twisting of the narrative by msm, it was a boon to traders, real news in real time and no subscription fees. The market plunged, there was a pause then a second wave down on the news of Chinese retaliation, then a stop. With no new news the market could only look back at the fundamentals for direction and they were good for the US economy, the market headed back up. Four times Trump has repeated this tactic over the last year and a half and it keeps on working, the Chinese economy keeps getting hit and slips deeper into the mire while the US economy remains strong. A lot of amateur traders say none of this matters, it's all down to technicals and anyway they have all possible scenarios built into their trading plan, yeah right but the fact that the immediate future is being telegraphed to you via twitter should make you sit up and take notice. Hard hit in all this have been the permabears who believe every downturn is the one they've been waiting for all these years, 'this is finally it, the great crash', but they are confounded each time, the thing is strong economies don't just crash, oh 'but what about the debt?'. Permabears have a self imposed blind spot and that is Japan and MMT, Japan with it's huge debt was supposed to sink into the sea years ago but there it still is, the permabears should be doubting their longterm bias but they are all so immersed in the echo chamber with the likes of Hedgeye and Zerohedge they just can't see the obvious. So you have a market that is clearly being driven by urgent fundamentals and that means technical analyst becomes less relevant to the point of being not relevant at all simply because those in control of the market are no longer using historical data as reference points, they are making fresh calculations as to true value with each new piece of information on a continual basis, that takes a lot of resources that are simply not available to retail traders, so retail, as ever, can only catch the prevailing sentiment and try to hitch a ride regardless of whatever they might have drawn on their charts.
  5. MT4 seems to have been upgraded at some stage though still the same Build 1170 I found that if you download mt4 now the file size is twice the size of the one I had, also the apps pack file is bigger and now has the Excel RTD (real time data) App. MT4 itself looks the same but seems more stable, there used to be occasional fraction of a second dropouts that were only noticed because of the sound alarm but not getting any now, there are obvious extras are in the app pack, I haven't look through them properly but did notice some nice changes. There are additional features on the mini terminal but they are not working properly and are causing the interface to freeze on the live platform (perhaps you could pass this on @JamesIG), the new price ladder allows orders to be placed directly onto chart and the new 'maxi' mode also looks good but changing the input values or even changing the vertical price scale will freeze the mini terminal and the only way to fix is to delete the chart and redo. The mini terminal works fine (as it always did) if the new features are not enabled. Also as noted in another thread Autochartist seems to have gone? @Archeon. I found this link below to educational videos for the apps was very helpful (produce by another broker so may not be exactly the same as IG) https://www.thinkmarkets.com/uk/tools/mt4-super/mt4-super-apps/
  6. Hi @Izzet, the mt4 demo platform uses metatrader lot sizes which if I remember right goes down to 0.01 which equates to 10 pence per point but the live platform used IG lot sizes and only goes down to 0.10 but that still equates to the same 10 pence per point and so a £1.00 lot size is £1 per point on the live platform. A bit confusing I know.
  7. Better to think of the two signal providers as computer generated chart pattern screeners, so if you are interested in particular chart patterns but don't want to be constantly trawling through all the markets check the signals, go over the suggested trade and check it suits your requirements especially the risk reward factor as sometimes they are very poor. The trade picked out in the OP is clearly a glitch, the trade was stopped out for a small gain months ago but not removed from the list for some reason. Both providers have their historical stats posted on their respective web pages.
  8. Useful new IG article on trading gaps and especially on the different types of gaps and which are likely to get filled and those that may not. https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/how-to-trade-using-price-gap-analysis-190802
  9. Interesting Dow daily chart for Friday with strong buying for the last hours into the close giving a long tailed pause bar, whether a prelude to a reversal or bear directional continuation may be determined by any China response over the weekend so worth keeping an eye on the Weekend Dow.
  10. yes no and yes yes yes and no yes and no. With indices you are trading a managed portfolio of stocks and therefore the trials and tribulations of a single stock are of no importance. They are managed because poor performers are dropped and good performers are added. So long as GDP continues to rise as it has done for the last hundred years indices will also continue to rise so really a long term one way bet. IG are not allowed to give trading tips in their broadcasts or give advice. None of the commentaries ever do. IG commentators are just trying to aim for the middle ground in their time frame selection and for retail that means trading on daily through to hourly. Institutions trade on long term time frames only, anything less than daily is considered just noise but they look to stay in positions for months and years, none of us has the financial backing to allow us the patience to copy that approach. They would consider those who trade the short-term movements are feeding off crumbs and they are correct, if you are a big player it can take days and weeks to get your full position on (or off), they couldn't just jump in and out even if they wanted too. Which is why major markets take days or even weeks to turn, and that's why trying to pick 'the day' is daft.
  11. Hi, I was using mt4 all day Friday with no problems. MT5 is a separate platform and not used by IG so ignore (you must have got that from metatrader not IG). If you downloaded mt4 from IG it will still be in your download folder. Assuming you've already set up a live mt4 account with IG and have had it up and running previously check the version of mt4 you are using, 'Help' > 'About' , it must be build 1170 or later, earlier versions are no longer supported. Check the IG demo and Live feeds are open and that the ping has returned; 'File' > 'Open an Account' The IG mt4 download put in your download folder is labeled 'ig4setup' and the other pictured below is the additional IG apps pack.
  12. ok, that's fine, so you can set the time zone to yours if not all ready there and you can set the Filter (top right green box below 'search') and uncheck the 'low impact' yellow flags.
  13. you should be seeing this;
  14. ok, try this link https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php you may need to set the time right but it will remember once done, you don't need to register, once the page is set up save it to your favourites bookmark bar.
  15. All the big US data releases are going to have some affect on nearly all markets so that's FOMC, NFP, PMI's, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, GDP, PPI's, CPI's. Most are monthly though FOMC is 8 times a year. If any are way outside market expectations will trigger the big guys to re-adjust their holdings so you get big sudden moves.
  16. You don't need to know what especially but you do need to know when, mark off any red flags that mean high priority that concern a market you might be involved in. This one we talked about yesterday, that's why I thought you were joking, see pic.
  17. you are joking right? US NFP today 1:30, econ calendar every morning, actually came out very neutral.
  18. yeah sure, FOMO is Fear Of Missing Out, it's when you see price racing away, you didn't anticipate it and weren't ready for it so you start chasing after it, usually managing to jump in just as it stops and reverses 🙂 So not about selling highs or whatever but rather avoid entries where price is about to reach a significant level, so not shorting into support or going long into resistance, instead expect a battle at the level and look for entries as price is leaving rather than arriving, either breaking out or the first pullback thereafter.
  19. Interesting weekly chart BTC putting in a reversal candle.
  20. Hang Seng index down 5.2% on the week, biggest 1 week loss since Feb 2018 (start of the US/China trade dispute).
  21. Hi, yes we are waiting for the share dealing platform upgrade to html5 matching the spread betting and cfd platforms, no delivery date given as yet.
  22. Hi, see this page for swap calculations. https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/why-is-overnight-funding-charged-and-how-is-it-calculated-
  23. Dow in same situ as S&P and the bulls have congregated at 26477 to hold price up and needs to be taken out for price to continue down, if it holds then it's a up for a est of the pivot (PP). Dax not joining in but did try a retest of the low overnight 11900 and is now just waiting for Dow and S&P to make the next move. H1 charts;
  24. Just looking at the S&P and after any big move on news you will always hear a lot of talk from FOMOers that this is a great shorting opportunity but what they never consider is where are the buyers, well they haven't gone anywhere, they are sitting watching the same charts as you and waiting, so where do you think they will they start initiating speculative longs? Your average FOMOer will just sit stunned and just watch a big move until it stops and then they wake up and think 'I've got to get short', but why did price just stop, oh look, it's right on a very obvious S/R level, exactly the sort of place buyers will 'have a go'. FOMOers are weak hands always late. If you missed the first impulse move wait for a second phase (if there is one) and it won't come til after the support level holding up price is taken out. Shorting directly into strong support is a mistake, wait for support to be taken out first. order flow (again).
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