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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Well spotted  the 10 minute chart is very interesting, you have a nice Judas swing up off the 8am open taking out the stops above 6570 then a strong push down to 6500 and the 30 RSI, then a pullback back up to the 50 RSI then trend continuation off a pin bar followed by a very strong bear bar to crash through support at 6480. Someone is showing determination. 
  2. Hi  There are several important newish factors controlling oil price. The first is the recently discovered/realisation that the US actually has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia after extensive surveys carried out by fracking companies. The second is that the Saudis know that fracking only becomes commercially viable when price is over $50. The Saudis have the cheapest production costs as well as massive reserves and can easily adjust production rates to manipulate price, they have been and will continue to adjust production levels to keep price as close to $50 as possible since pushing it down from $100 . There will be plenty of trading opportunities in the short term as there will be time lag between any Saudi action and results but the Saudis are well use to setting the price of oil and will continue to do so even when it is to the detriment of other OPEC countries with higher production costs. OPEC is effectively dead and it is every man for himself.
  3. The Turtle Soup Pattern describes a false continuation break that can lead to great reversal trades. Similar to a double top/bottom but price goes beyond the prior level to take out the stops before reversing fooling the unwary into entering thinking continuation. You need to know of it because it is famous for suckering in retail traders to trade the wrong way thinking price has broken the prior high/low they enter and are then trapped. This is a bull/bear trap or a stop run. Moritz of Tradeciety has done a short video describing how he trades them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp4I1vy24TI&feature=youtu.be The pattern is from Linda Raschke's book 'Street Smarts' written in the 1980s but has been refined since then (can be downloaded free as pdf, just google search) Michael Huddleston of Inner Circle Trader fame (ex hedge fund and institutional trader) uses it often and has produced youtube video's on it as well. He also did a lot of work for the babypips web site many years ago and wrote extensively about it on their forum pages. Here Michael describes his OTE (optimal trade entry based on Fib) and why false breaks occur. If you want to watch some of his youtube vids be warned, he swears worse than Tom Dante and goes into regular bipolar induced rants (self confessed) which I find highly entertaining.  Note that 'street money' 'reacts to price' because it has to, 'smart money' can anticipate price because they are holding the massed orders in their hands.
  4. I'm thinking this 9550 level looks pretty strong support and it may take something out of the ordinary to break it. From early Feb it has been support then resistance then support again so it is recognised and well respected and the Euro looks settled going into the weekend. US PMI data at 3pm, not much else on the calendar. 
  5. Start of the holiday season, US unofficial half day and 4th July bank hol Monday means slowdown. GB (09:30) and US (15:00) manufacturing PMIs today. FTSE likely to settle into it's new zone. 8am hour bar sets out the range, may seek to retest 6450 but probably can't be bothered. 
  6. What is BOE Mark Carney going to say, speech 4:00 pm today? For a change there is very little speculation in the press (WSJ, Reuters) or on twitter. Is he really going to hint at an interest rate cut as FTSE nears year high. Carney called a meeting with big UK bank heads yesterday, now a hastily called speech today. Whatever is said, likely to have some impact on GBP and FTSE. The 8am candle might give a clue. 
  7. Interesting chart on post Brexit Day 4, how markets stand around the world. Note indices, UK down slight, US lower, Euro lowest. 
  8. The spike down hit 9900 then gravitated back to the 10200 and since week start has been going sideways on the shorter time frame, I wondered yesterday if price might try a retest of 9900. But the longer the sideways movement the more likely this zone becomes the base. That high liquidity area we talked about a couple of weeks ago lasted so long there must have been central bank involvement. There is the possibility they could step in here again, especially with the DX making a flag on the spike up. Interesting times. 
  9. FTSE continues it's upward momentum, now well within levels of pre-Brexit days and strong opening drive this morning, banks (main losers on the vote) and mining are the main drivers. Note the pre-vote spike to 6450 was the high of the year. Calendar thin today. 
  10. I'm busy watching the political fallout, it's such a shame, Labour in meltdown, Tories rudderless. I only hope Jeremy can survive to continue guiding Labour forward to the utopia of 1950's Marxism. Can't wait for central bankers to wheel out the 'whatever it takes' speeches. Have been watching gold as it has fallen back to 50% of Brexit gains, there were rumours on the night that hedge funds were shifting out of currencies (way before the result) and into gold more as a hedge and to avoid the inevitable currency volatility and likely to shift back at opportune times. Always be weary when a hedge fund manager talks to the main stream media, famous for talking up their own book. Most of the currencies are back to normal bar sizes except GBP which continues to throw it's self about. Longer term direction should start to become clear, I'm wondering about continued JPY strength and the possibility of USDJPY retesting 9900? Interesting times.
  11. FTSE still eyeing 6200/30. Gets 20 and 50 ema underneath and attempting to cross and a good bounce off RSI 50. EU summit and data out of the US on the calendar.  
  12. ECB will be forced to act to save Italian banks post Brexit. Italy hit worse than UK. 
  13. Note to moderator l o s e r should not be on the banned word list lol.
  14. DX back into long term range (weekly chart) GBP biggest ***** on 4hr time scale. JPY on the 1 hour time scale. 
  15. FTSE looking to consolidate between 6200 and 5900. 8am 1 hour bar looking bullish so so far. 
  16. Hi  thanks for posting, hope you can share some insight on a regular basis (god knows we all need some). Can't comment on your experience but I did watch the carnage live last night and might explain some aspects. Firstly, I was watching my screens during the Jan 2015 SNB debacle and last night was nothing like that, that one was over in minutes, this built into a fury over hours. Initially (on poll close) everything lifted on reports hedge fund commission polls gave remain a clear win (manipulation? who knows) and the early count of outlying areas seemed to confirm. But the northern areas results started showing massive (70%) leave vote, everything plunged. Some London results sent markets in reverse again. It became turmoil as the results came in faster and faster, hundred pip plus moves were being stamped on the charts then reversing an equal amount within seconds. You could picture stops being jumped over (slippage) by hundreds of pips, I could picture whole accounts being wiped out trying to take just a hand full of trades. I don't see where a phone call could have come in if you were exposed. Some time after midnight some were tweeting banks (Barclays first, others quickly followed) were no longer taking stop loss orders, you could see why, a stop loss was useless with price leaping (by now) hundreds of pips back and forward, I appreciate the charts look placid now they are fixed but at the time intra bars were going up and down like on a pogo and this went on for hours. The SNB 2015 hit 2700 pip in minutes, JPYGBP hit near 2000 but over hours, seems obvious now we know the result and can see the completed chart but it wasn't like that on the night. I appreciate you are looking for a more professional response and I hope someone can provide it, just giving my thoughts, hope they might help.
  17. BoA are even calling it a 'Brexistential crisis' whatever that might mean. Big drop in Dow and S&P on US open. FTSE already back up to within a hundred pip of yesterdays levels. I see the spreads have started down but not by much. The MSM don't want to inform, they have a pre-planned narrative to stick to hence my reliance on twitter.
  18. Nah, there will always be entry points and there are a thousand charts out there. I know you don't mean over weekend as in next few days but as you say the dust will settle, there will then be consensus on direction and price will happily march on to to next big level. Just pointing out big banks are having extraordinary meetings over the weekend and it will be they who decide the direction and the level, they won't tell us but their foot print on the chart will. That's the time to look for an entry point. Did you stay up for it? I've never stayed up for a vote count before in my life but that was exciting, twitter was going absolutely crazy, there must have been a lot of soiled underwear come morning.
  19. "You're not really a trader, you're a risk manager". Seems appropriate to pull this article from Tradeciety out now for a quick reminder on risk management. http://www.tradeciety.com/why-most-traders-lose-money-risk-management/
  20. Expect more volatility on Monday, lots more meetings like this one taking place over the weekend around the world. Eurodollar still putting in 50 pip 10 minute bars. 
  21. Rule of thumb is to either wait for bar size to return to near normal (whatever your usual chart, because you have to get your stop behind it), and then look for price channeling to a major level (monthly, weekly chart), or just X everything by 10 or 100 (including risk) Market reports say liquidity still a problem, trading big numbers but in lumps and sporadic (big funds), retail still waiting. Understandable considering 10 minute bars still between 50 and a 100 pip in Eurodollar.
  22. The market called it by 2:30 am with just a third of the votes counted, everything just slid down from there and it was all over by 4am. IG GBPUSD spread still 6 pip. Bounce back in FTSE up off 5750 on open, looking to get back between the 2 monthly support/resistance levels. Massive up spike in dollar index but will it find support at 9550? price may well duck under on bound off spike. 
  23. Third of the way in still very tight... 
  24. You won't see a FTSE chart like this again in too many life times... 
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