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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. 1 hour ago, cheviot said:

    Prof. Kondratieff , 1920 s economist studied the world s economy going back to the 18 th C.  He found the economy the go in waves,  and super cycles.  Hence Kondratieff waves.....Fibonacci used a sequence we all know and love 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc and the ratios there by refined from them

    He probably picked it up from Richard Wyckoff who started working on Wall street in 1888, wrote the book Studies in Tape Reading in 1900 and started The Magazine of Wall Street in 1907. Of course the Wykcoff Method remains in use to this day and describes the market far better than anything since.

    Fibonacci I abandoned years ago as I found it doesn't really belong on charts. 

    Everyone can draw their charts just as they like of course and the one I posted looks just fine to me. My line about TA is king was very tongue in cheek as I place more importance in fundamentals than any ABCDEFGHIJKLM pattern anyway.

    • Like 1
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  2. 13 hours ago, dmedin said:

    I've given up three months' worth of gains and then some.  Learn to love the trading game, it's for losers! :)

    I still haven't figured out how you choose direction, still seems to be the art of second guessing plus lots of hope. Try using some tools might help, I did explain the slow and fast wave in sync approach that might help, I remember you weren't impressed but it does work, just need to get your uppsies and downsies in alignment.

    image.thumb.png.5c5826200b20550d1fde2f5cd37dab26.pngthat

    • Thought provoking 1

  3. 12 hours ago, ShaneA said:

    Evening,

    Is there any update on the roll-out date for Version 11 of ProRealTime?  Looking through previous posts I was expecting February, but there seems to be no news yet.  Wouldn't mind some sort of rough answer even if it is "By the end of the quarter", or a rough date of some sort.. Thank You 😀

    There hasn't been an update for a while, would be worth repeating the question through the week in case the post gets buried over the weekend. 


  4. 13 hours ago, HPbrand said:

    Thanks for your opinion.

    you're welcome.  @cheviot is quite right in the above post but this question comes up often on a Friday afternoon or Sat morning  when peeps realise they are a bit more exposed than they are comfortable with going into the weekend and are looking for a temporary solution. The better alternative would be if IG offered a short term guaranteed stop but otherwise it's worth taking out a simple hedge, an equal and opposite trade so your overall PnL stays even no matter what so there will be no nasty surprises on Monday morning, no good surprises either but at least you can sleep. If you miss the Friday the alternative (if available) is to keep a close eye on the weekend market and do the same there if necessary. Then on Monday reassess and decide which one to close, or both.


  5. 46 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

    Don't really have a good option right now. Either hold or cut losses.

    Holding seems like a better option as Nasdaq should not be dropping that much more (hopefully). Cutting my losses now means losing 10 days of earnings. Doesn't sit well with me.

    What would you guys do if trapped like me?

    Very much a Friday profit take and get out just in case whatever over the weekend. If already down and seeing there are good support levels not too far below I would probably be inclined to hang on as the mass exit was planned and those wanting out for the weekend have likely already done so. Might be worth taking out a short for a hedge for over the weekend just in case though.  

    image.thumb.png.348b31298aba49a40f4e370afbc066cc.png

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  6. Zerohedge suggesting a large European fund initiated the sell off yesterday on the Frankfurt close which sparked US continuation. Ftse suffering and is down into clear space while Dax looking to hold at 13639 and S&P at 3348 though may test yesterday's low at 3336. Dow has a prior support level just below at 28892.

    Monthly flash PMIs today which is the early call and so having the most impact and may well be affected by the virus concerns. Could be a very interesting day 🙂

    image.thumb.png.a54162acbf6f6373ea3bc73cd5a89e2f.png

    image.thumb.png.0f3d55f9d7546c848ef6d353294b10cb.png

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  7. 13 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    no not quite, both took off ok but turned around at the 'first trouble area' (remember that lesson?), so just bailed.

    remember that there are 2 pullback entries, the candle reversal pattern at the pullback fail and if you miss that the second is the breakout passed the prior high (for a long). The prior high is also the 'first trouble area' for the first entry type, if price can't make it past there you don't get the breakout traders joining in to push your earlier trade entry along, time to start doubting the whole move. 

    • Like 1

  8. 1 minute ago, dmedin said:

     

    You tried it one way, lost money, tried it the other way, lost money - exactly what happens to me when I try to trade on short-term charts.

    no not quite, both took off ok but turned around at the 'first trouble area' (remember that lesson?), so just bailed.

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  9. 2 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

    I thought a temporary reversal was in play but even Dow, the least bullish of the three, is refusing to drop much. Maybe Dow 30000 is coming much earlier. Having said that, I will only go long on Nasdaq.

     

    You have any positions on indices at the moment?

    nothing on at the moment, it's too mincey. Had a short then a long earlier but both run out of steam so I closed them out before they came back on me.

    • Like 1

  10. 1 minute ago, dmedin said:

    But the signals on daily and weekly charts are stronger.  You can use Fibs to trace out little waves, and the RSI helps.  The picture painted by e.g. 1 hour chart and the daily chart are just too different for me to reconcile. 

    I suppose you can have tight stop losses on short time frames and only trade in one direction, if you're got the discipline to not keep re-entering the trade and continually get your stop loss hit.🤡

    you shouldn't be looking at a higher time frame chart that looks like that and even be thinking of trading in the opposite direction really. Time frame analysis always starts high and works down to your preferred trading chart so in your mind you have the bigger picture before looking to trade.

    Momentum = force and can carry a market a far greater distance than imagined.

    • Like 1

  11. 1 minute ago, dmedin said:

    They have a point, it does look overextended and it's reasonable enough to want to try and find some extra confirmation before entering a new trade.  You're really just looking for a justification to get in, and find a reasonable stop loss point.

    fair enough and you don't really just want to be jumping in on FOMO but what sort of confirmation would you be looking for? I would think drilling down time frames and look for a pullback where at least you would have a reasonably clear stop loss position is really the best you could do.

    The only real confirmation is to sit and watch it travel another million points with you on the sidelines and that's no real help.

    Buy low and sell high is relative, a pullback on a lower time frame may well be the best low you're going to get.


  12. 7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Yes 😻

    noooo, but it's at the bottom of the screen so surely it can only go up from here???  

     

    I'm sure everyone recognised the chart and of course you are right, 'follow the trend til the bend at the end' and there ain't no bend yet.

     

    It was of course the NASDAQ futures. 

     

    Oh wait, 'inverted'.

    image.png.122e86fb1e7dc8b3f44c4c812b332281.png

     

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