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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. Keep an eye out. Nat Gas, rose on the long term weather forecast in Oct which said that the coming winter would be colder than average and the month of November would be particularly cold. Prices fell as the last prediction proved unfounded and today we have the US Nat Gas storage figures, Forecast estimates for today's figure range between plus 18B cubic feet to minus 86B so could be market turmoil ahead. Nat Gas data out at 3:30pm today. 

    • Like 1

  2. Since the Reuters report yesterday claiming no deal possible this year US have stated negotiations for phase one completion continue. Looking at the charts you can see why Trump is in no hurry as the China 50 looks more like the Ftse than Dow.

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  3. Latest 'star witness' Trump impeachment 'evidence' bombshell.

    Sondland Bombshell - "There was a quid pro quo!!!"

    Did Trump tell you? "No."

    Did Pompeo tell you? "No."

    Did Zelensky tell you? "No."

    Then how do you know? ... "I just presumed."

     


  4. 3 hours ago, raideroftheark said:

    I've tried to look for the IG Group plc chart but nothing shows up, only giving me the IGG Inc company which is based in Hong Kong. Am I blind or is this chart not on the platform?

    Hi, yes IG Group is not listed on the leveraged platforms to prevent any possible accusations of conflict of interest, IG Group is only available on the share dealing platform.


  5. 15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

    yes well spotted, it was down to the Reuters report on no chance of a trade deal being signed this year that caused the sudden drop and nothing to do with Trump at all as there isn't actually any evidence against him at all, never mind.


  6. 7 minutes ago, Trevbeats said:

    Thanks buddy for your feed back.

    It seems that I am running away from one account to another? If the ozzi esma rule comes into play what will be left to switch too SWISS? I will need a large cap if i go back to uk account and spreads would be more likly as no tax is involed.

    Just my luck I am so getting ready to fire the trigger "live" but it is  going against me again!

    3 years of study I hope it is not wasted...Can I ask do you trade? and if so what set up account do you hold?

    I know how to trade got my plan ready; however retail traders are getting the push out of this market...seems all one sided from the big banks.

     

    Trev.

     

     

     

    3 years not wasted at all, the whole point is to find a system that works and then use it to build an account, you always want to start small so if it fails you are not wasting too much time or money before moving on to something else. So it's like compounding, starting small just takes a little longer in the early stages but if the system works then it must grow. Many have found that being successful on demo doesn't mean being successful live, in fact it's probably only halfway there. If the system can only work with massive leverage then it's probably not really going to work live for the duration anyway but regardless, there is only one way to find out.

    • Like 1

  7. 13 hours ago, Trevbeats said:

    Now I feel I am ready to go live!!!

    Couple or more questions: If anyone can help and advise? 

    So now that I have a plan to full on I am thinking of how much to start with in my capital?

    2k or 20k Ok....

    if I start with 2k do you think this is rerealistic to build on this?

    If I start with 20k does this make better sence as you need leverage?

    Next: I have opted for the Aussie account due to low margins however it's only on CFDs only therefore I would be subject to tax right? I would much prefer a Uk spread betteing account but as we all know about esma rule the margins are just redicloius. I will appreciate any feed back.

    Regards Trev.   

    Great going Trev, couple of points, with regards to the Oz low margins be aware that the Australian regulators are currently in the process of bring Oz regulation into line with ESMA, so the low margins won't last much longer and in fact some of their proposals are even tougher the ESMA so there won't be any reason to hold an Oz account in the near future.

    With regards to starting live and how much capital I would suggest that you need to think in terms of starting over from scratch as you will find live is very different to demo with it's own new problems to deal with. So once again start with low capital and low bet size with a view to building up as you gain experience on the live platform.

    Best of luck.

    • Like 1

  8. So after a break upward yesterday morning was followed by a pullback for the indices with the usual trade dispute back and forward plus an escalation in the Hong Kong protests with a stand off between students and the police plus the US senate getting involved to stir things up.

    Looking at the Dax and Dow charts there was a 9am break upwards followed by a reversal, some might say that was a stop run but they are usually not much more than 20 points or so, some might say it was an exhaustion bar on the Dax but exhaustion bars are on the end of a run up or run down not 8 days into a flag. Inevitably some will say it's the beginning of end of the world (again) but it looks just like your average pullback to me.

    Looking at the bottom chart compares 2 different assets with 2 similar looking charts, they should be because one is the Dow index while the other is one of the main Dow constituents, the funny thing is that one of the charts 'the crowd' are perpetually heavy on the short side while in the other they are perpetually heavy on the long side 🤔

     

     

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  9. 3 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

    Caseynotes, thank you for your reply.

    What I meant was that it seems to me that the characteristic of the price movements seems to me to change somewhat at the end of each month and the behavior of the price movements have a different character in the next month.  Perhaps I have an overly imaginative pattern recognition.

    ok, wasn't sure what your picture was trying to convey. there will certainly be moves close to the end of each month due to month end flows where risk managers walk around tapping traders on the shoulder and saying 'you're not considering carrying that loser into next month are you' 🙂

    • Like 1

  10. 57 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

     I do not use monthly pivots because I have found them to be inconsistent. But I took a look at them on the S&P500 and it seems to me that there is a reset around the end of the month, as though an algorithm had been changed. I am interested in people’s comments.

    Hi, yes it's the same for Mn, Wk and Daily so they are not rolling but each new day/week/Mn uses the OHLC data from the previous day, week & Mn.


  11. Dow back up to yesterday's high overnight, Dax remains in the bull flag, ASX breaking up through key resistance and Ftse still unsure which direction to go.

    FT reporting Labour are on the verge of looking for a new leader.

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  12. The spike down in indices in the last hour was the same ol' trade war news, China stating they are less optimistic than the US and feel they have been mislead by recent talks where they felt they had agreement over a rollback of tariffs that the US now say is not the case. After 18 months of this you should be use to it by now. 

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