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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. 21 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

    Thought I would take a closer look at oil. It's the usual story, here is the oil price (orange) vs client long sentiment (blue).

    As the price dropped from the start of the year clients have been loading up their long positions:

    57142501_oilsentiment.thumb.PNG.7d7de24c5be416aba8ba546f6a27c104.PNG

    as ever the usual story, the massive daily bear bar Jan 8th told everyone exactly what those who have the best resources and research thought of this market so retail do the opposite because, er, contrarian or something. And of course when proved wrong you should always revenge trade and double and even triple down lol.

     


  2. NFP today sees US indices at their ATHs, Dax getting aboard though Ftse still languishes in uncertainty.

    The Dow held up yesterday afternoon by the weekly chart resistance level (red) even though it had broken it in the morning, on lesser time frame levels that usually means the stops have gone but on the big time frame levels the big players will still use them to reload.

    The ADP nfp on Wednesday was a big beat may hint at today's figure, don't always correlate but have done well for the last few months.

    Daily charts;

    image.thumb.png.5f695c60a77a05ea2b05554ce3d56199.png

    image.thumb.png.942083ccdc83d8e1f284d0f949f72897.png

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  3. Dow with near term resistance at 29527 and support at 29362 and been going sideways during the London session, Dax in similar mode so waiting for the US open to see which level gets tested.

    M5 charts;

    image.thumb.png.c9f5f5b32864f848c404029999814c48.png


  4. Oh dear the top pickers are out again, these markets don't have a top, in 50 years and price at 50,000 still won't be the top. They been calling the top for the last 100 years. To think if price is high on the screen then it must turn and head for the bottom is well , ... just no. You'd have to be a dooms dayer who's willing to miss out on every run up for years on end, oh wait, they do.

    There are occasional corrections for sure but why would anyone sit on their hands for months waiting for those.

     Longer time frame traders join trends and move their stop, if approp, at the end of each day, sorted, they don't stay out of trends expecting a reversal each day, again just no.

    1984475898_ThisistheTOP.thumb.png.44e6e6428dc7916f74c1a5c1eec6d27c.png

    • Like 1
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  5. 8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Looking for a nice wee bouncy-bouncy off a Fib/support level and/or the EMA.

    610502097_WallStreet_20200206_09_51.thumb.png.b9fe5c02c5d07f87e82960a87c723f7d.png

    The 100 ema is quite a long drop on the intraday, also consider having 2 MAs because when they spread apart or converge towards each other is useful information but whatever, the actual candles need to be the actual trigger.

    On the HA chart look for the Doji to stand by and then next bar colour to go.

     image.thumb.png.ccbbe8d7dc4fa2061bc4128ce4ff026e.png

    • Like 2
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  6. 6 minutes ago, JulianG said:

    IG documentation says that overnight charges are applicable to daily funded bets and cash CFD positions (https://www.ig.com/uk/charges). 

    Is there any easy way of checking the charge, or the fee percentage when I'm placing the deal? The app and the web page show the margin requirement but it would be useful to have this too.

    Thanks

     

    Hi, one of the factors of the overnight interest fee on your leveraged trade is the end of day interest rate. There are estimations for FX majors (see link to guide below). 

    Generally if holding a trade open for a week or less paying the overnight fee is more cost effective but for trades expected to stay open for long than a week then a futures or forwards contract (where available) is more cost effective as you don't pay the overnight fee but pay a larger spread instead.

    https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/why-is-overnight-funding-charged-and-how-is-it-calculated-


  7. Yesterday morning's Dax on a 4 point Renko chart with a Heikin Ashi Moving Average (HAMA) overlay, WPR OBOS exit arrows and MACD (default x2).

    552163660_bgerhama1.thumb.png.a673c9ef0d6921b58c6de91a1c432cf7.png

     

    This morning down after a surprise factory orders data miss.

    image.thumb.png.1b7ce2a44d5035435704a2fecd2be04c.png

    • Like 1

  8. US indices back into all time highs though as ever clouds on the horizon as China considers seeking changes the phase 1 trade deal with the US due to coronavirus emergency.

    Meanwhile infection rates outside epicenter decelerating.

    image.thumb.png.3fc6c6b1efeff9aa24b5f03e386ef20e.png

    image.thumb.png.06882c32bc659c41172f2b21163e1f14.png

    image.png.d13c246bf5ead7f3a65fe2d8f1b4d6b0.png

    image.png.9d47ea05713b949d7a7a63baec893b9c.png


  9. 8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

     

    To me it looks like 'socialism for the rich', while the people get austerity the markets get unlimited amounts of free cash created out of thin air.¬† ūüßź

    After leaving the Gold Standard there was felt the need to attach paper money to something even if that something was itself. It should instead be attached to people and infrastructure and their ability to produce wealth. Printed money can facilitate that, in fact always has done before MMT (see video above MMT 'how does it work'). Printing too much will trigger inflation so inflation data is used to regulate printing.

    • Like 1

  10.  

    16 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

    The more I look at MMT, the more it looks like Keynesian economics.

    I see the OP link has moved, here is the new link;

    Everything You Wanted to Know about MMT (but were afraid to ask);

    https://themacrotourist.com/2019-01-23-mmt/

    "Yet isn’t that just Keynes theory? Yeah, trying to wrap my head around the difference between Keynes and MMT took me a while, but I think I got it.

    Keynesians are still tied to the idea that we are bound by fiscal constraints whereas MMT’ers believe that the only real restraint is inflation."

     


  11. 3 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

    Doesn't feel good to be stuck in a draw down. I give till Friday on this one. If passes historical high, I will accept to be wrong.

    fair go, the failure to break through the blue rectangle was crucial for further downside. Now looking for resistance (sellers to step back in) and the most likely area is just before the red 29400 defending their initial stops.

    image.thumb.png.a6ab5542fde9ff19eaa8d90b93766d5a.png 

    • Like 3

  12. 6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

     

    He's got a plan ... tax a wee bit of Elon's trillions and use it to build, you know, useful stuff for ordinary people :)

    that's what the Venezuelans thought and now 'the ordinary people' can't even afford food.  Some real history.

    100%  failure rate.

    image.png.bb6098302c0fd2d47d8c2db926ff7757.png

     

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