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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Dow having another try for 27275 resistance above the pivot while Dax well below the pivot but looking to challenge resistance at 12180 with support below at 12069.
  2. Now you might look at this chart and say to yourself well that's clearly long-term bullish, mid-term bullish and short-term neutral, chart reading is quite simple after all. And you'd be right, but there'll always be someone to tell you that actually it's bearish, seen it countless times on this forum since early 2016, but why? The answer is always the same, people will look at the same thing and perceive a different picture, it always comes down to bias, you see what you want to see, you curve fit the picture to fit your bias without thinking it should be the other way round, people are lead by their bias and it distorts their vision which is what makes it such a bad thing. What do people really want to see in a blatant bullish chart like that? They want to see a top, they want to get in early for the great bear correction and they jump in short. Further back in this thread I posted a chart of the number of times the S&P has posted an all time high for each year and since the start of 2016 there have been about a hundred, each time there's a new ATH and the hint of a correction someone jumps on the forum to call the top. They always say it's time to get in before the crowd, the smart money is getting out, but here's the funny thing, every time I look at the IG client sentiment it always shows a very large percentage of IG clients are short. It's not contrarian to go short on a roll off the ARH because that's exactly what the retail crowd do, every single time, and always about 70% of them. And how many times have retail been right of those 100 ATHs, none. If you're looking for reasons why 74% if retail clients lose money you are looking at the number one right there.
  3. Dow continues it's short term consolidation in touch with the all time highs, Dax hoping to have found support after very poor EU business climate data, Ftse trying support off the broken weekly chart resistance level and Nikkei stuck in the Asian doldrums as China's econ continues to slowly sink in the mire of the war it's having with it's best customer. Daily charts;
  4. Overnight Asian indices down, USD flat, Crypto up, Bonds and Oil up, Gold down. Chart Nasdaq. Ger employment and retail sales, EU GDP and CPI, US ADP nfp, FOMC rate decision, mon pol statement and presser.
  5. Was just looking at the CME prob figures, fractionally lower at 79.1%, but difficult to imagine Powell won't go through with it and it will give a boost to the indices as the nay sayers will need to take their speculative bets off.
  6. Hi, you can open a mt4 account from your 'My IG' page, click 'Add an account' and select mt4 SB or CFD. see pics below.
  7. Dax breaking down past last Wednesday's low 12168 after the EU business climate data came in at minus 0.12. Dow looking to test S2. H4 charts;
  8. but were they as good as expectations? it''s expectations that get price into the market and if the data disappoints bets come off.
  9. Demo on the left, live platform on the right.
  10. Without doubt the most important S&P chart ever, S&P vs Pundits 2012 - 2018;
  11. Hi, if you are meaning for the shares trading platform see the top answer on this thread linked below.
  12. very rare that it should happen on the live platform but if it does trade positions are not affected if it is a fake which this one was. The data for an account isn't taken from the chart but from source.
  13. Dow above the pivot and looks to have checked on the 7am bar so may be set for a test of the recent high 27275 next, Dax just ducked under the pivot on the European open but now looking to get back above, if we do get a move higher on the London open Dax should look to test the recent high at 12461.
  14. Hi, yes the demo platform is showing a false spike on the H1 chart at 9pm, the live platform is not affected.
  15. Ftse continues to climb as GBPUSD continues to decline. Dow has short term resistance at 27275 to conquer if it's to continue this leg up, Dax in a similar situation with resistance at 12475. S&P sits poised to break higher (daily chart). H4 charts;
  16. Overnight Indices USD and Oil up, Bonds and Gold down. Chart GBPUSD. Today Ger consumer conf and CPI, EU business climate, and US personal spending and consumer conf.
  17. Hi, you will need to close the trade either manually (any time) or by placing a limit order (profit target at a set level).
  18. The key is to consider where is price likely to find pending buy or sell orders on the chart, they could be unfilled orders from the last time price visited and/or new orders placed there because that was a level that buyers found sellers and vice versa in the past and so possibly will again. That's why price moving up the chart is suddenly halted at resistance, because there is a cluster of sell orders waiting there, they are clustered because sellers want to work together to have the best chance of turning price and it doesn't matter what time frame chart the sellers are looking at the support and resistance levels are obvious on all. So static S/R is based on where real orders are most likely to be placed in the market, that's what makes them such a powerful tool. MAs can work as dynamic support for a trend and so can be used to find entry points for joining the trend on dips back to the MA, the key there is to find if/which MA that is being used by the large traders so some trial fitting is required first to find a match, the 20 sma and 50 sma are commonly used for this approach.
  19. Hi, a good all round calendar here https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
  20. Ftse getting a boost as GBPUSD sinks lower as traders see a WTO deal Brexit increasingly likely. H4 charts;
  21. the trend is your friend til the bend at the end, but a trendline is different, it's usually asking too much which is why they need to be constantly re-drawn, that and the lack of accuracy on different time frames mean they are very problematic to use for setting limit orders to. I wouldn't say never use them because sometimes they are obviously the popular method of choice for that particular instrument at that particular time but check alternatives as they might be a better fit such as horizontal S/Rs or dynamic S/R such as a particular MA.
  22. A few comments on the importance of execution.
  23. yes, loads of times, not a great fan myself. They are never as strong as horizontal lines, they usually need to be re-drawn on a daily basis, by the time you have 3+ touches everyone can see them and the big players are looking at setting traps and they don't hold their drawing accuracy well through the different time frames on any platform.
  24. Sounds a reasonable summing up, FOMC this Wednesday and Powell unlikely to do the unexpected, don't think too much is expected from the US/China trade talks this week and NFP Friday, July's data doesn't usually throw up big surprises.