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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. ex4 file download here, see 4th post down; https://www.cryptocraft.com/printthread.php?t=453930&pp=40&page=4
  2. Early push through up to R1 for Dow, Dax follows. Ger econ sentiment today though still negative is expected to show signs of recovery and Trump speaks on the economy at 5pm may impact the markets today.
  3. Dax and Dow looking set to push higher, Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance. BAML global fund managers survey of asset allocation shows push into equities and sentiment for global economy for the next 12 months turns positive.
  4. Trump speaks and the market duly responds, back to risk on. Indices, Oil and USD up, Bonds and Gold down. UK average earnings, EU and Ger econ sentiment at 10am, Trump and Fed speak this afternoon.
  5. not the case, the commercials are the product producers, users and hedgers working through investment banks and institutions, large speculators are registered traders working for investment banks and institutions, note that the net positions of the two are a near mirror image. During trends large speculators are usually on the right side of the market but tend to get over extended and when there is no one else to sell/ buy to/from the market stops working for them, commercials are better at seeing these signs of coming tops and bottoms. Your graph shows the long bull trend in Dow in which the large speculators are net long for the duration while the commercials are net short. But you need not worry about the commercials they do just fine providing the other side of the market for the large speculators, as you point out, many of the commercial contracts are hedging for the producers/users and are expected to expire worthless.
  6. that's right, you can't actually buy the index, you can only buy the leveraged derivative such as a cfd, spread bet or option on futures which is based on the underlying index.
  7. An index is a market that sets out to track or mimic the performance of a basket of constituents stocks but is not tied to them directly. The index is a market in it's own right and behaves as directed by the market participants, the buyers and sellers of the index, not the constituent stocks.
  8. H4 Dax and Dow on the US market open look to have found support after pulling back on news Trump had never agreed to a roll back of the tariffs late on Friday.
  9. Over 70% of countries making up the MSCI World Index (23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets) now have a rising 200 dma. "Following up on last week's report – on the importance of the big picture: Most global Stock markets are in uptrends (rising 200dmas). This condition defined *nearly all* global Bull markets in history, AND weakness correctly anticipated every Bear market. Currently Bullish."
  10. Hi , best to start with the IG Academy, you will need to login first. https://www.ig.com/uk/learn-to-trade/ig-academy
  11. Hi, it might be worth taking a look at the Edgewonk journaling package which covers spread betting, cfd, FX, stocks and Futures. https://edgewonk.com/stocks-trading-journal/
  12. Indices losing some of their risk on enthusiasm and pulling back a touch. Ftse and ASX still at resistance while Dax and Dow are clear above their monthly chart resistance levels (purple) but currently looking for support.
  13. Overnight Indices, Oil and USD down. Gold and Bonds up. US Veterans day, UK GDP.
  14. Very impressive S&P weekly and Monthly charts;
  15. Bespoke @bespokeinvest There haven't been many times in the last decade where the yield curve steepened this much this fast.
  16. the 'up nearly 24% on the year' sounds like everyone is all ready in long but that figure comes after the big drop in Dec so not really the case, open interest is still low so there's still a lot of upside potential and we know sentiment has been low for a while but looks to have turned up recently both in emerging markets and developed markets.
  17. Caseynotes


    perpetually redrawing TA lines is all part of the fun but with investment and experience you will be able to produce charts like the one below that clearly show so much more information than your current humble efforts 🙂
  18. certainly the London session is showing caution but support looks to be holding so not actually pulling back any further, will be interesting to see if the US want to buy into the highs straight into the weekend.
  19. LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk BAML: European Equities Saw Biggest Inflows In 88 Weeks Surmounting To $1.7Bln - RTRS
  20. John McDonnell on Venezuela: “Here you have the contrast between capitalism... and socialism.” 2 minute infographic vid South American countries 1990 - 2018.
  21. Hi, the chat link can be found on the IG 'Contact Us' page which is linked from the bottom of the IG welcome page but I'm not sure if it is available in every country.
  22. Pullback overnight to the new daily pivot, if supported here will be looking for a retest of yesterday's highs. Not much on the calendar today but always the possibility of breaking trade deal news.
  23. Dax and Dow continue into clear space, The Dax all time high is just ahead at 13596. Ftse and ASX still trapped by key resistance, Ftse with Brexit woes and ASX with China econ strength woes. Not sure today, maybe a cautionary pullback going into the weekend, not much on the calendar, continued gains today would be extremely bullish.
  24. Overnight Indices and Oil down, USD and Bonds up, Gold at key support. Chart Apple continues it's rise. Today Ger trade bal at 7am, Cad employment figures at 1:30pm, US consumer senti at 3pm.
  25. MMT is coming, the US dollar is here to stay, and “value” investing is dead: an interview with Dylan Grice By: John Stepek07/11/2019 https://moneyweek.com/517760/mmt-is-coming-the-us-dollar-is-here-to-stay-and-value-investing-is-dead-an-interview-with-dylan-grice/