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smidge21

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  1. Hi, anyone know how to open an investment club account? Scott
  2. The Fed's new policy mix would appear to have significant adverse implications for the US$. The US is a massive consumer of international capital through its twin (fiscal and trade) deficits. The Covid shock saw the US$ lose interest rate support for the dollar, the new Fed policy locks that in that loss and steers investors to expect lower real yields – not something that currencies usually like. All else equal, the US$ would appear to need to fall to entice foreigners into US assets. The US is not only the most vibrant major economy, it also has an armful of tech leviathans changing the world and dominating global equity indices. The Fed’s policies have no great relevance for Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla etc but, in fostering periods of higher inflation, it is endorsing stronger economic growth which will broaden the attractiveness of US equities. With Japan’s economic revolution under Shinzo Abe having petered out before Abe stepped down for health reasons and with the ECB likely to take a year to complete its policy review – and biased to under-deliver, the Fed has added to US exceptionalism rather than detracted from it. The new policy is not about creating inflation for its own sake. It aims to sustain the conditions that might be consistent with higher inflation; conditions which should support US corporate profits. None know how ‘hot’ a modern advanced economy needs to run before inflation becomes a problem. What is clear is that, in the US, the threshold is, probably well, above the average growth rate of the ten years pre-Covid (2.4%). The Fed know that monetary policy is nearing the limit of what it can achieve. They are effectively passing the baton to politicians and encouraging them, through fiscal policy, to have a go and they will.
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