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Zero

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Everything posted by Zero

  1. Hi Good question, and good timing for the question. There is a decent chance the ASX could reach the 6160 level as this month is our financial year end, meaning often (no guarantees) the large institutions (local) fiddle their books for this (tax tricks). If needs be, they'll get up there against global headwinds. But you never know what they're doing... I'll have a think about it. After that, hard to see it getting near the 2007 record. Amazing it was that long ago...
  2. Ok, thanks. Makes sense now. Welcome lads.
  3. Sorry if it is obvious to UK clients - but who are UKX members - or iii Interactive Investor, or BARC (Barclays?). Just curious.
  4. If you mean your two long positions from 5995 and 5998 then yes they are in profit, but that's not grid trading. That's a pure directional trade, which is my point. Being pedantic I know, but.... At least they're in profit - good!
  5. Cool. I thought it might have been a practical demo of commodities futures trading. I'm with James - I like your post. The basil looks quite healthy too.
  6. Hi I would disagree with a few things you've said. Firstly, in what applies to me personally - I don't follow "quacks" and don't give much credence to TA at all. So I agree with what you say (just not in that it applies to me). The simple thing you've said which stands out to me is that "you would have made money in this down-trend" (using grid trading). I would have just shorted it - no grid - and made money. No "hedge" to unwind, no reduced profits, and in the current rate environments, there is no advantage with trying to capture some interest. Grid trading, the way I understand it, is seductive like I said, but you need exposure - (net exposure) - to profit. If you had a grid you're always going to have to unwind it meaning one leg ultimately will be a directional trade. So while it can work, it is prolonging the inevitable: a single-exposure directional trade. That spreadsheet of a grid only has two open positions too, with an exposure of basically nothing and huge 300 pip TP/SL? Massive - trending more than gridding?? You might have some variations on the standard grid concepts. If they work, good on you. But for me, it's something that just seems "wrong".
  7. I always thought you were a grid trader... Won't work. Grid trading is seductive but just doesn't work. You need exposure to profit. I'm getting the hurry-ups from the forum algo - save or discard. Something new? Algo's bossing us around - I think that will create a new form of "rage" (eg road rage) - getting off topic. Well, I have seen this topic create "grid-rage" - a lot of people don't like gridding...A lot love it too.
  8. Is this a stupid question, but why did they send you some basil seeds?
  9. As of now, 10:48am Tuesday morning, the IG ASX200 low is 6044.4 and the XJO low 6046.10. Either way, that trade would be stopped out. The market is still weak, trying to find some buying. Not knowing the rational behind the earlier trade (buy 6084, stop 6050, target 6135) I can't offer much more commentary on it. I'd expect a range to develop off these lows. No clear sign of a bottom/low yet. China is strong (+0.5%) the Nikkei weak (-35) and that's off a positive lead overnight.
  10. That question is something that assumes a certain trading approach that I believe is incorrect. If in the past 6084 was an important value/price, it is not necessarily true that it will remain important, as the context then and the next time it is at that price has normally changed (assuming a time frame of a week or more say). Technical analysis, in other words, is so one dimensional. The XJO went below 6084 today but it wasn't a significant number. I haven't looked at the charts to see if it is either. To me I would take every day as it comes, and decide on the day whether a certain price or combination of prices is a good trade. That would mean I would trade a larger position and look for a smaller range than your strategy. Just my personal preference. At the moment, and considering what is happening this week, it is more likely you'd get stopped out of that trade before it returns to come close to the target. I also don't trade with stops, and would rarely trade overnight. So again, it is hard for me to be confident about this trade with the trading style / money management I would use. Short answer, there would be a better trade in my opinion (assuming a CFD directional trade, not a binary. Binaries would obviously be a totally different consideration, and a blunt no. You would understand this I know.).
  11. It is probably known but IG have changed how they determine their strike price for the ASX (XJO). Who knows why. They now take the price of the XJO just before the expiry time, not on/at the expiry time. It shouldn't be an issue as they disclose when this is and a trader has to accept that that's how the binary is set up. Philosophically it might be more or less accurate. In reality it makes absolutely no difference as a trader couldn't trade within that 1 minute regardless..... One thing that isn't openly disclosed is that they now shut their binary market 1 minute earlier than before.
  12. Not sure what you're implying - "lost support" ??? Today either the 6083.10 20min ladder binary which was 44 or less at 3:55pm "bought", and the 6083.00 hourly ladder binary at 43 to 36 buy at 3:55pm, or less in the 2 mins till lockout. XJO 6084.50, binaries to 100. At the moment I am limited in how I can post on the forum. That's about all I can say. Last week I was visiting family.
  13. The algo's did pop 8pts on 4pm as expected, but from then on it was another sell-into-strength. Yet the selling pushed the market to new lows, including the XJO on close. I was staying out, but my expectations from the get go were off for this last ten mins. Annoying considering the rest of the day. The XJO closed 6116.20, down 2.50, setting the day's low. Tough trading for binaries with the prices offered. Unless you got in over the afternoon. The nice thing of the day was that the algos were still perfect, and our magic number ruled the day, 6093 the goal for the selling. Hmm. Dow fell on the 4pm open/close (whichever market you're watching), with China falling more, the Nikkei dragged down after its close, and the European markets coming off a touch.
  14. The Friday algo kicked into gear today, as the SPI and XJO meandered in a small-ish range. It just doesn't want to move above these levels, despite some positive leads and context. A flat to positive start only invited more selling, fading the XJO's early gains (up 20ish)down about 15. That steadied, then ranged higher into 1pm as expected. There were no binaries on offer when I was watching, as the XJO was at a mid-range level, easy for IG to price so to speak. No surprises there. The Dow and the Nikkei led our surge into 12pm, the Dow moving from +20 to +44, the Nikkei +155 to plus 230. They've stayed there all day, whereas China was not interested, starting flat and then falling 9 - nothing major. Quiet on the FX front. In the afternoon, the ASX faded those gains back down near the low, setting up a range around the low (12pt range so far). There's been constant selling, picking up a touch into the close now. I expected a close off the bottom of the range, so in 5mins that will have to appear or else my predictions are wrong. Binaries 6120 ladder was cheap at a 37 buy a minute ago, yet now, with the XJO lower and the SPI the same, they are priced higher at 49.... ! To explain - they should be cheaper again as the XJO has fallen and they are out of the money, but now they are probably fairly priced. I don't see the shorter time frame having that much of an impact on the price, but maybe IG's pricing algo's are factoring that in. Anyway, there is still a bit of selling, so that binary may not be worth the effort. Friday close is not the best time to trade, as it can make or break a weekend. On the XJO, a similar theme to yesterday, with our big miners BHP and RIO up 1.2%, Woodside down despite crude being higher, down 1.1% too, so not insignificant. The big banks are off about 0.5% - 1.0%. Volumes trust-worthy too, the miners a touch less than average. Binaries are not being priced correctly, the up down binary having the up at 55 buy, the down at 45 buy, yet the XJO is down 0.5. Technically it should be the other way around (it seems to be a bit better now, last minute of trading) Can't see any trades I like, and with the constant selling it is tricky. There are two signs that the algo's should back off...
  15. Not on purpose, but often right when I post any suggestions for the close, the market moves and the tip becomes redundant. Same thing today - the market sold down about 5 pts right as I posted so my suggestion to sell a ladder binary was a bit late. Yet there was still life in the move, the next level ladder still a sell. Well priced too, the 6120 ladder a sell at 57, XJO 6120.40 at 3:58pm. That was looking borderline, until the last minute when there was a bit of a dump, pushing the SPI down to the magic number 6094. That held - remarkable - the selling pressure was held off perfectly to keep that level. There was a 4pt bounce, then back down - held again, and now 4:22pm another 4pt bounce. I only tell this as it is instructional - and pretty amazing. The XJO closed at 6118.70 so the binary was good. Right as I was going to post, the algo's made sure their perfection was obeyed, with a new low of 6092 yet that was in line with algo-logic. This will hold till 4:30pm. The Dow and UK/EU has come off a touch since 4pm.
  16. I'd give $100 for anyone who could guess the low of today (on the SPI) yet it is a bit too easy to find out the answer... Well, the day is still young in binary terms, 3:24pm, but I'll call it. Make my own binaries... After last night's rally on the back of irrational buying because of the Iran Deal withdrawal, the SPI opened even stronger than where it closed for the night session (at 7am). The 6093 level, respected all day, was leaped over at 5pm (yesterday afternoon, just after it had held all day) and was treated like any other price as the SPI moved higher. Interesting - yet this morning there was a bit of a pause around the opening levels, a 7point rally to the high for the day, then down down down 28pts to a lunch range. A local move as the Dow moved higher to +52, and China +13 at 11:30am. Nothing much was happening till about 12:53. I could see a bit of selling pressure building up, but the binaries didn't seem to think it was going to amount to much. Set up a good opportunity - buy the "up 0-10" range binary for 41, the XJO up 10.50 (so a good price to buy, a touch cheap which is good). The selling kicked in so that became in the money, but the ladder binaries were still a bit slow to adjust to the move. So I thought the 6117 ladder was worth a sell, at 68 (the spread 68-83, the XJO 6117.60 at 12:56). Hopefully that is sort of obvious that it is a really good risk-reward - 4mins, XJO only has to fall 0.6, and the risk 32 to make 68. The selling pressure was there, but it seemed like there was no chance it was falling below 6116, the SPI 6095. Oscillated here for the 4mins, amazing to watch - as if someone else was trading that ladder binary (6117). Seems too controlled. Anyway, come 1pm, the XJO went from 6117.20 to 6116.80, +8.80, both binaries to 100. Hmm. Then the SPI ticked down a touch to make the algo's happy, and then popped higher about 10 to set up a tight range for the rest of the day including now 3:45pm. Still selling here. The rest of Asia has kept its strength, the Nikkei up 80, China up 8 (though it did fall to +1) and the Dow up 45. The DAX and FTSE seem to be starting strongly, though it seems there is a holiday??? BoE tonight too, but if they are like my RBA it might be a non-event. Miners are strong on the XJO, up over 1.5% each (BHP RIO). The star of the day (for my "watchlist" ie mostly the majors) is Woodside Petroleum, up over 5% on the back of crude oil (why I watch it). I guess there is a bit more risk-factor baked into that than purely the price of oil moving higher overnight. Banks mixed half-percent moves, Telstra (our biggest listed "telco") down 2%. Volumes decent, average on average... (ie. banks average, TLS above average, miners a touch below average - so far). The small surge now has set up a selling opportunity (binaries, sell the ladder) but there isn't anything of value now 3:43pm, so I might wait. No pressure. The low by the way is 6094....
  17. Cheers, thanks James.
  18. Sold off on the close, then rallied back to high. That held - 6093 - solid. Can't tell me that is conventional buying and selling. Binary was good, the XJO closing at 6108. That 6110 ladder sold at 63 was a good trade. Two days in a row some buying after 4:10pm, which goes nowhere. Hmm.
  19. I seem to have missed the last 30mins in my expected price moves for the day. Up till then it was ok. So I will wing it - yet the morning was more selling. The open relaxed, had a re-think of that, revisiting a high that seems to be important - the 6093 level. Had a few bites at it, and like I mentioned yesterday that was the high from Monday night, and the close of Friday (the high that night being 6098). So it is a level where stuff is getting done. This morning it was selling, as the market then faded down to a tight range into 1pm. A small 20pt fall, not much happening today. Binaries priced a bit skewed by IG into 1pm, but they picked the right side to bias their prices (pretending they do that) so that it was too exp. for me to buy. The XJO was on 0 basically, about 0.5 either side. So you'd expect the up/down binary to be 50:50. Yet IG were 64 buy for the upside. 1pm the XJO was up 0.4 but 1min earlier just positive. So a fine line between profit and loss. The art of binary trading. The better trade was the short an hour earlier at the high. I was thinking of that, got distracted and then got left behind. About 11:30am the market was hit - the Dow to -36 (v -14 earlier) the Nikkei to -100 v -40, and China -11 v -2.5 earlier. So that started the slow fall into 1pm. The currencies were more active than usual, the USDJPY the standout up 450 pips, the $AUD coming off 200 (at about 11am). These have stayed much the same all day, and the Chinese index has weakened, -26, yet the Dow recovered to about +2, and we followed. After 1pm a small rally,which faded, so setting up the range, but that was broken at 3:30pm with that unexpected rise back to the high. The buying significant too, but not urgent. Not sure how I will play out the close, but first thoughts is to expect the levels to hold. The 6110 ladder is good value to sell at 46 with the XJO 6107 3:45pm. That is good value, yet a touch under my risk level. If I had had a good morning or week so far, it might be worth the risk, BUT - like yesterday, the XJO should be higher than it is or the SPI will have to fall back a touch and the XJO stay unch. If the XJO adjusts and not the SPI, all binaries will be torpedoed. As Caseynotes pointed out (thanks again) - the Donald was going to announce his Iran intentions, which created some volatility. The headlines were that he was, he wasn't, he told Macron, he didn't..... We know of course he did what everyone expected, so that didn't seem to cause much trouble today. The local Federal Budget was generally positive, but what trumped that (problem using that term when it doesn't apply to him) by some political news - ongoing saga that members of Parliament have dual citizenship, which is against the law. The High Court (the highest) ruled that a particular member of the opposition is ineligible to sit so her seat is up for changes, along with 3 of her colleagues (and their leader promised months ago in a signed statement they were all legit ...!) Anyway, that has created political uncertainty, as other members of Parliament might be suspect, or it might be best to call an early election to sort it all out etc. Yet this afternoons mini rally doesn't fit this fundamental news - so it seems the markets aren't concerned about much. It will be used in the near future to explain any surprise move I guess. On the XJO BHP and Woodside are up over 1%, RIO just positive, banks likewise just positive, yet the CBA (our biggest) down 2.9%. Unusual - they have agreed to settle over their manipulation of the Bank Bill Swap Rate, maybe the reason. Volumes close to average. A revisit to the high at the end of the day, slight selling kicking in. Might keep my powder dry. The 6110 ladder a sell at 62 or more, which is where I would err, the range binaries priced at 55 each for a buy so too high for me. XJO at 6111.10 +19.20.
  20. Thanks! I hope it is profitable. One day you should tell us about the logic you refer too - if it doesn't give away any trade secrets.
  21. Ha - cool. Thanks - a forum honour I guess. I hope it makes you some cash...
  22. Flat close at 16:10 but there was some underlying buying, enough to kick the XJO up. Not what I expected, yet I was staying out so would only have missed some decent buys (6089 and 6090 ladder at 40 and 45 buy). SPI has since rallied 7pts since the cash close at 4:10pm. Not bad considering it kept a 5pt range at the lows for over an hour. Short covering by some big players. No external correlated moves, so local buying since 4pm. Vols on the banks were good today, rest probably average. Buying before tonight ... hmm.
  23. Bit of a dud day really - early gains from the overnight rally didn't inspire the market, with a small sell off on the open rallying back to a range. That was just a set up for selling at those higher prices. Interesting the high was the overnight high.... Held strong. Selling into that in a 10pt range, with a small surge into 1pm. Bit of a risky move but I took the 6109 binary (hourly) for 37 pts and 42pts (buying) at 12:39pm. There was a bit of ground to make up - XJO at 6107.40 - and the SPI was just meandering up till then. But thankfully there was a small surge to take the XJO to 6109.40 and the binaries to 100.Try making that from a directional trade on a morning like today.... Other binaries were easily priced by IG and so not worth the risk. Maybe this afternoon it (a directional trade) would have been ok, if you got in on 2pm for 15pts - as after 1pm the weakness tried to rally but it wasn't convincing and the market just faded all afternoon. Made new low with continual selling. The Dow has kept its +20ish level, the Nikkei up 90 early but that has faded too, yet China opened strong, and has gotten stronger up around 50 (1.3%). Its trade balance (USD denominated) was close to the expected value, and strong. The $AUD has come off 200pips too. Oddly the FTSE futures (well IG's market) is down 45 (1.6%) and the DAX down 24 only 0.2%. On the cash index, the big three banks are up about 1% but NAB is still in the naughty corner, down 5 cents. BHP is down 0.5% and Woodside (Petroleum) down a lot, 1.8%, considering Crude Oil hit the $70.00 mark last night. RIO positive up 0.4% (non-oil miner). Volumes a touch low on the cash index however still strong on the SPI. Seems to be becoming the norm these days. I might have to tweak any expected "average volume" amounts. Local news today is our Federal Budget being released tonight. Already there are slow pre-releases so some of the news is being baked into the relevant share prices. It is a pre-election budget (election still a way off) so everyone gets something sort of budget. More money in the bank too for Aus which is good... yet it is not really in the bank, but being spent on votes. Fed Chair tonight is always something to keep an eye on. Selling persisting now, and binaries are probably priced to be out of my risk range. XJO +5 meaning easy to price. A possible ladder to sell if that's the plan (was the plan earlier...) yet on investigation that they aren't priced well enough to justify the trade. No need to try and make things happen (especially with 1pm working out ok). Edit: for clarity.
  24. Thanks for the encouraging words. Good to know. Cheers.
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