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Everything posted by Zero

  1. Steady on the close as expected, XJO 5886.00 up 17.20. Ladder (5885) safe as is the 10-20 range. You can see how binaries require a bit of strategy and making trades up on the go as the market moves. BHP and RIO up 1.4% today, and the big banks almost 1%. Selling has persisted after the cash close so despite the positive day the sellers have taken advantage of the rally. Volume less than average for the cash market, a touch above average for the SPI. The Dow has come off a touch too. Yet these prelims can often be trumped during the US session. $AUD has been positive for most of the day, but that is fading. Not much of a move to start with. The USDJPY is strengthening from early strength.
  2. The weekend somehow erased the 200pt fall of the Dow from the collective minds of traders so that on Monday everyone was keen to buy. There was a strong lead from the Dow futures on the open, and the SPI opened strongly, had a slight pullback, then ranged higher. Selling kicked in at the first high, just before 12pm, dropping the market a good 20pts, but then into 1pm it rallied back strongly to be near the highs (hence the ranging higher - large range). The bigger players were selling into the initial strength. All of this nicely under control. Then in the afternoon it was put on autopilot, and ranged at the highs, about a 15pt range. Still selling off a touch at these levels by the bigger players, yet the price is holding its ground. Just on 3:38pm there was a second rally up about 5pts to bring some binaries into play. They have been cheap! There was a 20-30pt range for 31 which is cheap considering the XJO was +17.60. That is now in the money by 2pts which has set up an interesting trade - the lower binary 10-20pt range is now 52. So that is a better buy if the selling pressure suggests a fall. There was another interesting trade before 1pm that highlights the strength of using digital100's (binaries). At 11:32 I thought the 20-30pt range binary was the one to trade, and it looked cheap at 38buy, considering there was still 1.5hours till expiry, and only 3pts needed for it to rally. But then the market dropped about 12, meaning it was dead, worth about 10 to buy and looking certain that it would expire worthless. But on expiry it would have been worth 100, ie correct and a good trade. Having entered the trade with a pre-defined risk, you didn't have the drama of a stop-loss, or wondering if you should close the position for a loss to prevent a worse loss etc. You were sitting on a loss, but it couldn't get any worse. And then on a rally it came good and you could have closed it out sometime for a small loss or a small gain (if you didn't think it had the legs to reach 100), or sit on it till expiry and make the full 100. I was too slow to post this trade into the close - took off as I starting writing this at 3:36pm. But IG are wrong in their pricing to be blunt - in the money 49buy, out of the money (10-20) 61 buy XJO +22. They can still get lucky and it close in the lower range, but if they're wrong... Because of this mispricing, you can wait a touch to let the trade progress. I did like the higher range, but the continual selling pressure would make me wait and expect 10-20. That is overpriced so my second buy of the 5885 ladder for 53 was probably the better option (at 3:32pm). Dow futures have been up about 70 most of the day, the Nikkei actually weaker by about 100pts (0.1 % almost) yet China was up by 1% early on - but that has since faded.
  3. Just to wind up the challenge for the week (see message 59 in this thread). The starting balance was $5000 (or 5000 pounds - doesn't matter to me - trades would be the same, or better as you would have more AUD to trade with using pounds). Monday - two binaries posted, buy at 31 (and 50) and 38. Could easily do 10 contracts for each. So that's 69 and 62 profit. There was a 50 buy for the same binary, at 3:52pm. 181 total. Now that the balance has grown above $5000, can easily do 10 contracts every trade. They were all pretty well timed too so should be legit. Tuesday sell 72 and buy 41 = 131 total. Wednesday (off-base but posted live) - 49 and 25 buy, 80, 77, and 64 sell = 345 1pm, end of day 50. 395 total. Thursday buy 41 and 35 = 124 total. Friday buy 34 and 46 1pm = 130 total Total 181+131+395+124+130 = 961 * 10 contract, $10 per point (or pounds) $96,100. That was a good week - Wednesday 1pm unusual, and some cheap prices also not the average. But anyway. Check the math - or I will too. Posted here too, somewhere, if someone really doubts.
  4. Close was more of the same. Good thing we didn't sell that ladder (5865) - XJO closed at 5868.80 down about 12. This is one of the golden rules of binaries - don't let the price of the binary over-rule your analysis. There was a riskier ladder (hourly) 5867 but that was a buy for 54 at 3:50pm. That was over-priced then, so not interested (even though it would have gone to 100). Range range range. That was the story of the day. China has weakened some more after 4pm but since has stabilised. Big picture things are still brewing...
  5. The markets snoozed into the weekend with a range bound day. Panned out as expected (posting off-base for this week) and the best trades - maybe the only trades - were binaries. Did nothing on the open, a small surge at 11:30am took off at 12pm and found a high. Nothing special that I can see about the high - turned and then fell back strongly - up 12 down 16. That was into 1pm, which set up some nice binaries. I was expecting something like that, so at 11:30 got in to some 1pm binaries - which is much earlier than I would, but I had a good sense of today. They were cheap - the down 0-10 range cheap at 34 (the XJO at the time -13.50, 5867.50) and a 5870 ladder for 46 buy. Went out, back at 12:50pm and they were safe. Expiry 5874.00 -7.00. The market then ranged till now, about 3hours with 12pts - will break any EA Sun Tsu strategy as we've seen. No fault of the strategy, just local knowledge required to trade the ASX at times. Buying picked up a touch over the afternoon, and has been consistent all day. The vols low on both the XJO and the SPI. Dow futures have been up and down, starting -20ish, now +8. Nikkei went from -80 to +20ish to -25, but the big mover is China, down 1.6% or 62pts. That we/the SPI didn't fall that much is positive. BHP down 0.3% and RIO down about 1%, Woodside up 1% (odd). Banks down a touch. Nothing to see here.... $AUD down 180pips, USDJPY up 250. Now (at 3:58pm) IG overpricing some ladders - 5865 at 56-53 with the XJO at 5865 - so would be worth a short based on the technicals. Whether the market will move above or below is a separate question - that does make sense (to me). I would expect an up so wouldn't short. Market seems supported by some buying, and today is unremarkable for a Friday. A big order was snuck in right before that lunch-time surge too - hmm. Probably something in that...
  6. I'll give you points for honesty and having a go. You're right, but that's why I relied on binaries to trade it. Seeing as we made it a week long experiment, I'll post a potential return on our $5000 tonight. I understand too your EA demo needed more time and over a year might give the 80% return you promise. This week doesn't prove too much. I hope the Hang Seng is a bit more lively.
  7. Well, I solved the mystery of my lost article: back on the 17th April so the tick can be for that... The FX market at the time apparently didn't react much. Funny that Trump accused China of devaluing their currency, then they just go right ahead and devalue. They don't seem to care... The new RRR comes in April 25th, but of course the markets are going to move before that.
  8. Cash close was tricky - the SPI returned to lows, while the XJO popped 1pt to keep that ladder binary 5880 safe, XJO closed 5881.00 (+19.60). Then with 10mins to close the SPI sold off to new lows. Seems to be following the Dow futures and Europe. Controlled selling nevertheless, the bigger players again more visible today. Might set the tone for tonight.
  9. I agree I saw that RRR news yesterday and wondered why it didn't lift our market (Chinese market stronger) - it must have happened after we closed (explaining our strength overnight - that's Wednesday night). Can't find where I saw it. Will have to investigate.
  10. Strictly business sort of day. Despite the strong lead from commodities, and that the SPI held up v the Dow coming off in its last hour or so, we didn't build on those positives today. An early surge on open relaxed back into a range into 1pm (about a 20pt range). No real binaries as the price was in between levels and priced so that there wasn't any advantage in trading them. Generally selling off over the morning, which picked up pace a touch into the 1pm expiry and after, making a new low mid afternoon and then ranging off there ie. higher. Only by about 10pts, a third of the day's action. Right now you could have sold a 20min binary for 64, expiry 5882.20, the XJO at 5882.00 and with 1min 30 till expiry. Lets see...5881.90 30 sec, SPI unch.... 5882.20 !! Amazing hey. Binary to zero but it really makes you wonder... Nothing changed, right after expiry the SPI dropped by one pt (so the XJO would be down - 5881.80) - I often wonder as I've seen this a few times - who makes these 20min binaries. Do IG or do they rely on a secret provider... It is too precise - and too precise for IG to be influencing the market if they had to. If it is a coincidence, then I should watch at 18minute intervals during the day (or 23 or whatever) and see if I ever see such close precise coincidences. I spent a little time with the 20min binaries and I see it the most on this time scale which is why I commented. Anyway, that seemed to have caused a mini capitulation, the SPI down 4 and the XJO now in a new range for range binaries and ladders. 5880 ladder at 41 buy and the up 20-30 for a 35 buy. Require 2-3pts to expire at 100, with 10mins to go. I'd wait, expecting a small up. The ladder my choice at the moment. Volume on the XJO about average, and the miners BHP and RIO the real strength up almost 3% each. Mixed bag for the rest, some of the banks flat to negative. My watchlist all blue too - Dow up 36, Nikkei 62, China strong again 55, AUD up 220 (average jobs data) and the USDJPY up 200 or more. EU/UK positive start expected. After that... Those binaries now will be priced probably out of reach...Sorry - when I was typing (3mins ago) was the time to buy them... Might get a second chance at 3:58pm. Edit - punctuation and last comment.
  11. Maybe they read our forum... Hmm... Good analysis by the way, jokes aside.
  12. 0.1 points - the difference between 0 or 100, and why binaries can seem unfair. The selling pressure continued till 4pm, then some buying kicked in. The SPI only moved 3pts say, so kept to the tight day theme, but more-so buying. Then right on the 4:10pm close, a dump to push the SPI lower, but but but the XJO put on about 2pts to close at 5861.40, up 19.90 !! Close, but no - the suggested binary - range up 10-20 expired at 100 by 0.1pts. Which is a trade you don't ever brag about. I kept half an eye out on the 5860 ladder, which would have cost me if I was pushing things. Depends on the price close to the close, which was probably close to 50. I didn't suggest it on here as the range binary seemed the one (despite me not knowing the close was going to be so tight.). Now at 4:25pm the selling has resumed, taking the SPI down as the rest of the markets sell off from their opening exuberance. Volume on the XJO low. Tomorrow jobs data, which is irrelevant in my opinion considering the other things going on.
  13. Lackluster afternoon of trading. I didn't stick around, better things to do - and with a range of about 7pts I'm glad I did (who needs an EA). There was a small surge into 2pm, and then it has ranged up at that level for 1.5hours, just starting to come off a touch now. However the Dow is stronger +65, the Nikkei has surged +325 (see , Indicies) and China has gone from being down about 13 to up 13. The USDJPY is also about 300pips stronger. There was buying early on, but that has eased and the sellers are keeping a lid on things. There is a really good priced binary (range 10-20) for 50 at the moment. 20 mins to go, but in the money. Worth watching. After my full-on 1pm "trading" there is no pressure to do much into the close. Unless there are some well priced binaries. This morning was as posted and as expected. Yet the range tighter than expected, and again, algo perfect. The volume on the XJO is thin, though the SPI volume is average and ok. Our big banks are down a touch, the miners strong, with RIO and Woodside (Petroleum) up over 1%, BHP lagging only up 0.3%. Hard to know what to make of the SPI - my local market. It seems a bit over-it.
  14. Market ranging. Early selling steadied, ranged higher, fell to low of range, then rallied again to the top of range. Relaxed into 1pm. Steady buying but tight, and slow. Dow futures up about 50, the Nikkei up 270 (1.3%) and China down 11 (0.3%).
  15. Following the style of the Donald, just posted some live trading pre 1pm binaries. IG were being quite generous in their pricing to be honest. There is no way Sun Tsu and the art of EA can come close to that... Sorry - just saying.
  16. ? That's funny but probably not intentionally. Is that like "bite me" I wonder...
  17. Just to add - IG's ASX200 is open 24hours. Yet their spread varies according to the opening of the underlying (real) ASX200 (XJO) and the SPI for the night session. So when the XJO is open, 10am till 4pm GMT+10, IG has a one point spread. After 4pm until 4:30pm (GMT+10) their spread is two points - there is good liquidity still with the SPI but the XJO is closed so to speak (4:10pm exact closing time, off market auction I believe for those 10mins). The SPI is closed for 40mins after 4:30pm, yet IG will still make the market, with a 5pt spread. At 5:10pm GMT+10 the SPI will re-open (only the SPI of course) and it will trade right through the night until 7am GMT+10. IG's spread during this session is 3pts. Then from 7am till 9:50am GMT+10, IG will make the market again, with a 5pt spread. Narrows to 2pts for the 10mins between 9:50am and 10am GMT+10 as the SPI re-opens for the day, then back down to 1pt as the XJO re-opens 10am. The SPI is the futures contract for the ASX index in case that's not understood. Edit: Typo.
  18. Ouch! A negative bias (my suggestion) for the PM close was more like monster liquidation. Everything was going ok, even put in a small rally with 5mins to go, the range binary safe and getting safer on the rally (was only up 2.60 which was close to ticking over into a new range - but rallying higher kept in in the 0-10 range). The rally bought another binary into play - the 5845 ladder, which IG seemed to misprice - 72 sell generous. Worth the risk, but then the rally popped the XJO up to 5848.10 +6.80. So while my range was safe, that ladder was a risk. Selling at 72 meant a loss of 28 if wrong, but I had bought the range binary for 41 (3:12pm) so the return on that (59) would cover the loss and leave me up 30. Not bad - I was convinced that range was good. BUT then came the dump. Selling intensified into 4:10pm and beyond, knocking the SPI down to a new daily low, and the XJO to its low. The SPI dropped 8pts, the XJO only 6.6 pts. Expired at 5841.50 +0.2 Whew. That range binary I thought safe as just snuck home. I was protected by the ladder binary, and that turned out to be the better trade - selling at 72 to zero $720 per contract. That and the $590 from the ladder meant a big day. The selling steadied into the SPI close, the big players dominating today. The volume on the SPI strong, the XJO volume less than average. Algo's had things quite tidy! - even amongst the big selling onslaught. Very exact actually. Dow futures have since jumped, up 146. The selling into the cash close and beyond v that (Dow futures) makes tonight interesting to anticipate...
  19. Twin peaks - today's meanderings from a charting perspective. Morning rally didn't muck around, a small surge waited for the cash to open, then trended higher by about 25pts. Stronger selling there took a little while to assert itself, but then the market (SPI) fell back to near the lows/open (30pt fall). Then it turned pretty quickly, and rallied higher into 1pm. Well there was a spurt, then it went pretty quiet... then in the last 5mins before 1pm expiry there was a decent surge with momentum taking the XJO over the +20 range. It was pretty last minute, and more like scalping a binary, but with a few minutes to go the 5860 ladder (1pm) was 45 buy which was a fair price (the XJO 5858.20). Still a risk and not much to go on. Expired at 100. There was a bit momentum after 1pm to continue to the second peak, lower than the first but only by 4 pts. Since then (1:30pm-ish) the sellers have regained the upper hand, pushing the SPI down almost 20pts (3:26pm). There is a range binary that was cheap 10mins ago but now it's in the money and priced at 49buy. That is still reasonable, considering the trend (2hour) - the time is what is making it cheaper. If nothing changes in the next 10mins it will jump in price by 10pts probably, which is a lot. At that price you'd walk away, thinking it too exp (risk v reward). Again, another piece of the binary puzzle - the timing - wait too long and you'll miss the good price, get in too early and you'll be wrong with the trade. The XJO is at a ladder level too now, so if you're wrong with the range binary you might be able to offset it with another trade. 5850 ladder 43-50, which again is fair priced, if not a tad cheap. Priced for the downside. The trick is that if you bought the range and the ladder, you would have about 1pt where the XJO would have to close at for both binaries to expire at 100. That is a bit neat, especially 30mins out. Would have been better to sell the ladder, but it was priced too cheaply to sell, so wait and see what happens in 20mins. Volume on the SPI good today, and the trades moreso larger in size. XJO is a mix of small moves, BHP and RIO up a little, big banks down a touch. China is weak again, almost down 1%. Dow futures have been strong, about +80 most of the session. The Nikkei pretty flat, turning negative this afternoon. Also the DAX is being priced up about 0.5% by IG whereas the FTSE only +0.07. Similar to yesterday.
  20. Looks like the same algo as the SPI - too precise to ignore...
  21. Perfect close for binaries. The market relaxed just after3:30pm, to low and then only found some buying in the last 5mins. That however continued after 4pm, keeping the XJO steady on it's 4:10pm close (and binary expiry). The two I was watching were priced quite well - meaning a good buy - for 30mins at least. I was watching the range binary up 10-20 since 3:08pm. It was 47 then (buy) - Then come 3:33pm when the rally faded, it was a steal at 38buy (XJO +10.80). Funny thing happened then - this is the tricky game with the range binary. It became more expensive as the market fell a touch. The XJO dropped to +8.90 yet the range binary (10-20) went up to a 43 buy. Not to panic - still a good buy. The thing is that there were three possibilities earlier on, but with less time left, IG were pricing the two main possibilities: up 0-10 and up 10-20. Then, it was time to consider ladder binaries - they would be more directly priced (ie. up or down). The 5840 ladder was a buy at 31 with the XJO at 5837.50 (range 43 buy - needed 1.5pts to 2.5pts for the ladder to be in the money). Good risk - but a risk. Then there was a brief rally at 3:52pm, the range binary jumping in price to 58 buy YET the ladder binary (5840) was still a 50 buy - which was quite good considering the XJO was 5839.80 +10.70. Illustrates the skill in timing the trading of binaries. Anyway - the SPI kept the bid until the last 10 seconds when it was a bit busy. 105 was whacked on the ASK, keeping a lid on things, till it got taken out, then whiplashed back, then snapped back again to settle for the XJO close. XJO closed at 5841.30 up 12.20. Binaries - take your pick, but for any EA it was better than 80%. At least 100%. One day, 30mins watching. Volume was lower than average on the XJO and mixed, BHP up RIO down, one big bank down the others up a touch. SPI volume a touch more than average, and very precisely controlled.
  22. Nice It's almost a law of physics - abhorring a vacuum sort of - gaps and the market... Mmm, Trumped by London though this time the French have smoothed the waters for him I think. The Germans are reminding everyone what a grumpy Russia is like historically.
  23. Ok - maybe a bit dramatic, but if we didn't have the ridiculed "Mission Accomplished" tweet, things still might be a bit more testy... Markets are a bit lost - early selling with a gap on the open (something to watch) slowed, reversed right up to the gap (5834 SPI, open 5835) then fell back to the low (without filling the gap). All very very (very) precisely controlled. That is despite the open, which jumped the gun a bit with the Dow futures setting the scene (up 180). The SPI took off higher about 10:30, but then seemed remember Russia, China, and settled back down, ranging into and over lunch. There was decent selling pressure too for that (again precise) fall lower too. The Dow futures also calmed, down to about +70. The Nikkei was flat all morning, and that was a hint we weren't going to trend/rally higher. Into 1pm some selling resurfaced, pushing the SPI and XJO down 10pts - which was more than the previous 45mins. That would have been good for binary selling, but snuck under my radar (selling more than I expected). There was a range binary up 10-20 for about a 30 buy, and some weird price action with the 5850 ladder. It was 43-50 at 12:48pm, then jumped to 52-61 with nothing changing. That would have been a good sell (XJO at 5850.60) - then it flipped again and then continued lower with the SPI. Makes me wonder (@PandaFace) ... 1pm expiry was 5845.50 up about 16. Then the selling continued, to the low again, and then bounced from there with a small uptick in buying. The range is nothing much. Dow futures have improved a little, up 106, the Nikkei a bit stronger, up 50, but China is down a lot, -57 1.5%. Oddly, IG are pricing the DAX to open about 50pts higher, but the FTSE only 1. Been watching a range binary since 3:08pm. A better buy now at 42 than then. Plenty of time on the clock to trade too.
  24. Hi - ok - someone else on here or from IG should be able to help you out in the next few hours. It is a bit odd.
  25. Hi What about trying the Australian website? Maybe that is set up for HK Apple? https://www.ig.com/au/welcome-page Apologies if this is obvious and you've already tried it. I can't talk from experience as I don't use Apple stuff.
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