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Everything posted by Zero

  1. Strong negative lead overnight ie. Fri. night/Sat morn. The SPI didn't really fall much, so we either aren't too concerned, or we'll catch-up (to the downside) today. For example - Friday morning post-Trump-tweet, the Dow futures were down 300 and we gapped down on the open 40 to 5748. Almost 24hours later, the Dow closed down 572 yet the SPI is only 10pts lower at 5739. I would expect some selling on the open to stabilise, recover a touch into a range 1pm. Relax, an attempt to rally in the PM should fade but steady into the close. Mondays can be interesting. The EU open is often when things get real. If we lead the EU however, then the move is pretty serious. Edited the Fri night Sat morn.
  2. If he could do it before I've posted my pre-open expectations on the forum in the future... After 1pm the buying continued, but faded back into a range. Then there was a bit of an unwind close to the close of day 4pm, back to the mystery level 5770. Interesting where the high was - algo perfect for those interested. So the high of the day wasn't a special support/resistance level. Into the last 10mins, I expected a bit of an up move - which it did (to 5770 again - its getting a bit silly now), but then the third day in a row the internal correlation re-adjustment meant the cash market didn't do much. Ended down 0.1 - the only decent binary near the close was an up/down. Up was cheap around 46, but if bought would have been as close to being correct as possible but wrong (if it was 0.00 the bought binary would have gone to 100). That is THE essence of binaries, and why they can psychologically send you bonkers. I would probably have ended the day annoyed if I was trading, wearing that loss. All in all, the whole week would have been positive. The volume on the ASX/XJO was less than average, which may explain the fragmentation of orders today on the SPI. The SPI tried to rally after 4:10pm, with the Dow surging about 70pts, the DAX and FTSE both improving a lot. But it faded back to the magnetic 5770. We might try a bit harder tonight to rally - I expect a bit of up down up volatility. Edited for stupidity (first line)...
  3. Half time and the game is on ! Nothing like a Trump tweet to drop the market (Dow futures) 300pts before the day begins. We opened 40pts lower than the previous night's close, which is a lot. Nice if you were holding a short (unlikely as the market rose into the overnight close) - probably the best trade of the day. After that it was a bit confused (the market) and while I was clueless that tweet was going to be dropped on the market, my expected flow was pretty good (I am surprised too). The market wanted to rally, fell back, had another half-baked try (only 10pt rallies too) then fell to its low for the day. From there is found some strength (a little bit too precise to be market sentiment) and took off, pausing at the earlier high (24pt rally) before moving higher into 1pm. Fell back after making the magic number of the past 24hours (5771 high !) and stayed there into 1pm (XJO down just over 1pt). The buying was cautious but there. The trade sizes were mostly small interestingly, volume still ok. That must be significant - will think about it. Days like this are great for binaries (or binaries are great for days like this). With the Dow futures going into whipsaw mode, pure CFD's will be a bumpy ride. Binaries at least you know you've got the worse case covered on entry. Psychologically I mean. Yet there weren't many choices close to expiry as the XJO was at a price in between binary levels (easy for IG to price). The better trade would have been getting in on a few ladders early on. The up/down was in play about 6mins out, but I forgot to check the price (range binaries or pure up and down - when it is almost at 0 you have those two choices. Would have been some value there, say 40 buy 100 on close/expiry). Dow futures were down over 300 early (- 367 the best I saw - wasn't watching the open, got home and was caught off guard). That improved to -300, then -280 as we rallied into 1pm. Then it seems it wants to stay at -300. The Nikkei is flat, and like the SPI, isn't really being hit like the Dow. China down 1.3% on IG's platform, which maybe their own price as I thought I saw China had a public holiday today. The DAX was down 148 and the FTSE down 48 before lunch. The SPI is still heading higher. Going its own way today. Commonwealth Games gold psyching the local market....? (Joking). 3 more hours til close, the buying is still active now.
  4. Good lead overnight should follow through today. Some mucking around on the open, a relax, then heading higher 1pm. Pullback should recover into a positive range and stronger close. Eyeing the NFP tonight. I remember my first killer binary trade - it was a Friday pre-NFP and for some reason the SPI was being bought all day strongly. I took a big risk with some out of the money binaries (so risked 8 to make 92) right on the close, which came good. That was about 4 years ago - I still keep an eye out on NFP Fridays.
  5. Buying consistently across the day, but their conviction eased a touch after say 12:45pm. Still bought over the afternoon, but at 3:30pm they wanted stuff done at 5770 (SPI) (dropping about 5pts). Oddly that was last night's high... Dow futures were about 90 pts higher most of the day, but they seemed to drag us lower at 3:30pm, dropping about 40pts. Everything else (Asia, Europe) didn't change. Morning relaxed lower on open, then moved higher, had a pit-stop (important one though) and then continued higher. The PM was ranging near (but below) highs, then ranged lower into close. Interesting that the XAO (the whole of the Australian index) closed at 5888.00 while the XJO (top 200) closed at 5788.80. Someone having a joke with the triple 8's. Chinese algo's taken over ?? The miners were lower today, BHP down 0.7% while RIO fell 1.2%. Our banks up just over 1%. Volume just below average. The volume of the SPI has been above average the past few days - maybe new quarter activity. Didn't get a chance to watch the morning binaries. The PM was tricky - I was waiting, and caught by surprise by the 3:30pm move - about 5pts lower than I expected. Then the range was tight on the close - around the 30pt range binary (20-30 or 30-40). There was another internal inconsistency, hinting at the lower range a better risk. There was a chance to buy that binary in the last 3 mins for 45 at least. I was distracted so couldn't trade with much conviction. All markets strengthening now, but the SPI is still fixated at 5770. Will keep an eye on that price for future events.
  6. Big night - on the EU re-open, the SPI tanked 70pts (wonder if that big order on the cash close was in the know....??), but then has done a 91pt U-turn. I remember not seeing that range in a whole week back in the days. Today would expect a relax on open to rally to a high, then fall back to be steady 1pm. Any weakness then will be bought up into a ranging close. Some trade data 11:30am locally. Yet the overnight moves will likely move the market, including reactions from Asia.
  7. Hi Panda, In my opinion IG weren't pricing them correctly. I don't know if they price depending on their view of the market or their exposure. If exposure, they were short heavily the ladder binaries and were trying to convince clients to take a risk as you suggested. If market view, then they'd first be taking a risk (don't believe they predicted the last minute rally) and they'd have to expect contrary to the momentum it would shoot higher (then hope client's don't muck up their pricing) Their pricing of the range binary suggested they expected it to fall which was reflected in the ladder price. I wouldn't just take the other side if they were pricing incorrectly either. Today it would have forced me to sit out. They could still be priced incorrectly but things go in their favour on expiry. Depends on their exposure primarily (if no one was long the ladder they were safe even if they were pricing it to fall). That's the trap with binaries - to assume IG are correct, that their pricing is correct, and let that dictate your decision. The spread is also a big factor. Earlier they were 43-58 bid ask for the ladder meaning to sell you'd only get 43, where it should have been over 50. But to take the other side would be buying at 58 - again too high for the risk so just doing the opposite is sometimes still not a good risk (that is if you stick to the rule of buying under 50 or selling over 50 - if you are 50-50 then that money management will still keep you safe). There are times when doing what you suggest is a really clever tactic, but today they got lucky I guess (assuming no one bought their under-priced ladder). If you sold the ladder earlier, they might have been pricing them lower to keep you in the trade, assuming they knew that it was going to surge again. I don't believe they are that good to be honest, yet they aren't totally useless. The overall thing with binaries is to be right - so to decide if the XJO is going to be above or below 5760 (or in the range 0-10 or etc etc). Then see how IG are pricing what you expect and trade.
  8. I'll give you points for making me laugh. I think I'll call you Grasshopper - you are always searching for a guru. (Maybe only a joke locally). Anyway - do you know the liquidity associated those gains?
  9. Hmm, well that so-called mispricing worked in my favour, keeping me out. Well, if I was in I would have been flat, with the ladder binary (5760 sell) losing v the range binary (up 0-10) profiting. Days like this mystify me - well the day evolved as expected, yet the last 30sec. is a mystery. Huge buying contrary to the whole day. As if someone closed out a hedge - I might think of another explanation, but regardless, the buying pushed the SPI to new highs on the XJO close (yet the XJO didn't make new highs - this is another tricky thing that can't be helped - the internal correlation changes on the close from what it was during the day). IG may have been burnt - if they go too low with their binaries (ladder was a 30 buy on the close) it is too attractive to leave and people will buy just to have a punt. Would have cost them. Anyway, we started lower and then sold off a bit, contrary to the lead. Then we ranged higher, and continued higher after lunch. Good buying, but bigger traders selling into that. The Dow futures negative all day, but Japan and China trading positive. Our miners flat, banks higher. Now the Dow is still falling, will drag us lower (you'd expect) and the EU/UK slightly weaker. If that trade on the close of the XJO wasn't hedging related, someone might have a sleepless night tonight (unless they have deep pockets).
  10. Actually, the binaries are being priced too cheaply, so not worth selling. Should be 55 sell at the moment say, with the XJO 5761, yet the 5760 ladder binary only a 43 sell.. Range binary (up 0-10) too expensive at 58 buy with the XJO +9.30 (should be closer to 50. So - fiddle fiddle. The dealing desk weighting their prices. Market just dropped 4 points with some heavy selling, so all of the above would have been locked in (so now "worse"). Maybe there is another binary, 20min or hourly...
  11. Thinking about it I can't see there to be a problem, despite my earlier post (100pts ID). I don't really know - I guess there was no reason in the past to open one here if you lived in the EU or UK. They would tell you straight up anyway. The particular company is taking the risk - say if a client was to not pay up - harder to get money when they don't live in the country. Same reason I wouldn't use a company outside Australia. Caseynotes is right - the tax considerations and currency factor are inconveniences. If I ever needed the help desk (back in the days) outside regular hours I would get the UK's helpdesk so the same would apply I'd imagine for the reverse. The regulations here are pretty much as good as what you (think you) get in the UK with the FCA. Our legal system is historically based a lot on UK law/precedents, and so are many regulations. The main authority is ASIC, and like the UK there is a local Financial Ombudsman too. I am probably not the best person to represent this discussion on regulators however .... Australia should take this seriously - or IG Australia to be more precise. We could really capitalise seeing as there are close connections to the UK. Half the staff here are from the UK anyway it seems. The only thing is - will Australia copy the UK and ban/restrict the trading. Seems like IG needs some clients to speak positively about binaries and CFDs in their defence....
  12. This strength may fade into the close. Algo's could be happy keeping things contained from here, 5760 binary a possible sell, range binaries also yet there is no need to get in to them at the moment (in case it falls more than 7, which would be a new range). Dow futures down 77 yet most of Asia positive. Selling into the indiscriminate buying locally. Miners flat, banks up about 0.5%.
  13. It seems to be the standard procedure - IG aren't acting out of the norm. For whatever reasons, it seems to be what's done. Whether it is right or not is another question. Perhaps if you fit the criteria of having a massive bank then they don't care. Otherwise they want to see a trading history. I agree - all non-EU brokers would be loving this. I would want more than three months of uncertainty before making such decisions too. The whole thing is a mess.
  14. Can't see how that would work - I thought you would need 100pts of ID here in Australia which would have to include a local address. Then the funding, ie. bank. Not sure of the setup here (for IG Markets Australia), but again assume local banks would be required, or local currency. Otherwise you'd have an FX trade with every trade. Could be totally wrong, and be glad to be corrected (I was thinking of opening a UK account a year ago if I moved over to the UK - never looked into it, but assumed that what's I'd need to do). Getting a global bank account the problem, otherwise a local one (bank) needs a local address. It sounds simple in theory to just relocate accounts, but somehow I don't think it is. IG Markets has its own Australian business registration etc.... hopefully it is !
  15. My one line tip for the day might have seemed a bit useless, but it was pretty close to the day's flow. Despite the big lead, we opened steady (note at 5690, so my buy at 5624 was a good risk to take - IG's 24hour market is something to really appreciate if you're a client), then stormed higher. Well in spurts (ranging higher my terminology). Sort of 30pts then a pause, 20pts, pause, then 10. Made a high at lunch, then relaxed a touch, back up into 1pm. No real binaries as the surge took the price out of IG's expected 1pm range. After 1pm, the market waited for the RBA non-event, then checked out the high before falling as expected. There was selling over lunch and into the RBA, which continued, knocking the market down 23pts. I expected a positive close, so was looking to buy, and at 3:34pm saw a good binary for 40pts (range down 0-10). The move down created a bit of value in the range binaries. Bounce happened into 4pm, but the selling pressure was still around, My trade was all over the place (the price) trying to kick me out, but I held on expecting a positive close. Closed -7.50, binary 100. Selling continued after 4:10pm cash close. (That's 150% for the ATM EA thread...) Since then the Dow has jumped, up 42. The Nikkei seemed to be helping us higher today too. Intra market - the miners were strong here today, BHP up 1.7% and RIO 2%. A big oil/gas company Santos jumped on a takeover offer. Rest was weak but not by much, considering the lead and overnight activity.
  16. Expect a weak start to stabilise then range higher. Fall back after 1pm, steady, then back up into the close. RBA at 2:30pm, consensus is no change. Be interesting to watch the open. Four days off, and a big lead overnight. I was watching IG earlier and they had priced the SPI at 5624 with the Dow down 742. I bought there (mentally) thinking it was too far. Up 50pts already - but the open of the SPI will be more interesting. IG already having us down 70pts. We'll see how good their algorithms are for anticipating this (opening price). Normally they are ok but the lead-up this time is not the usual.
  17. Sorry but I don't see this as trend following. In a day you would have bought and sold the same asset. Sometimes both for a loss. If you were following a trend, you would go long and stay long for example (for more than an hour). Unless like I said you have short term trends, in which case it is probably not trend following but some sort of momo trade. You like trades near the o'clocks or news time maybe. I say you as you seem quite invested in promoting this, and know more about it than you claim. Its good you want detailed analysis or constructive criticism but that's not how you started the thread. Anyway, it looks ok but it isn't what you claim. I would wait to see how those open trades pan out - your straddle strategy is subject to the whim of volatility. You pending trades also seem to suggest the straddle. Where have I seen that before... I also don't understand how all the other 49 only make money for the pros. They should be a black box shouldn't they? Perhaps I am ignorant of what to expect with an EA. Hope your greed makes you happy. It is tough trading so if you've got a working strategy trade it. All the best.
  18. This thread is a bit weird. 80% a week - assuming you risk your whole account? Or 80% of what. A tread follower couldn't give those returns as trends don't follow weekly risk-reward patterns. Are you assuming this EA is a trend following EA or do you know. If you know, how? You need more than three days or are they three day trends? Maybe it's just a momentum trade. IF it is (a trend-following EA) then good luck - you'll be looking for EA 51 soon if the market kicks it up a gear into Volmageddon again. But you don't want these discussions. You just want to make money. What about your 49 other EA's? I don't know the answer to your question. But I think you'll find most genuine forum members will ask questions about a lot of this thread. You'll most likely get the answer you want by being a bit more "respectful" towards the people you are asking to help you.
  19. Hi Good point. I forgot about that. Thanks. It was a bit dicey here in the last hours of the day. The big players stepped in but the algo's had to keep it all neat and tidy, so while there were some unexpected moves, they were still "precise" if that makes sense.
  20. A day of millimetres. Started off with a bang before the market opened - the Dow futures (and Nikkei) pushing the market higher on the open. IG were pretty good to make the market accurately after hours (ie. before the open). The hint to trade that 20pt move was sneaky and worth the risk. A low risk trade (to short obviously) which actually would have been 4pts clear of the actual SPI high. The SPI opened on it's high (5789) and fell, had a rally but then sold off as suggested. The price at my post with IG's market making was the equivalent of about 5793. By lunch the SPI had dropped about 40pts, so that early short would have been an early ticket to the pub. IF you stuck to binaries, it was a bit harder. The price was in a zone where you would have had to trade the range early. The price did sell off then come 12pm settled into a tight range. Off the lows into 1pm, but just - there was still selling pressure, and it was keen to fall further. I left the binaries alone. Sold down after 1pm - the heat had come out of the Nikkei and Dow earlier - but the selling reversed and the SPI rallied about 18pts. Steadied there, then fell back 20 - that was the anticipated range (large range, but didn't expect a directional move). However it could be legitimately argued 20pts is a decent trade for a CFD. In the last 5mins there was a dump to bust my range, but that stabilised (down about 7 more) and then strong buying kicked in, with a decent surge into the XJO close at 4:10pm. So while it looked messy, my anticipated move actually played out, the surge mitigating the dump to keep the SPI in a range off the lows (positive bias) into the cash close. I traded my suggested moves, buying a 5755 ladder for 47 (the XJO at 5753.80) and before that I bought a range binary down 30-40 for 48 which was cheap as the XJO was -35 (midway in the range for 48 is cheap). That was 5 mins before the close (4pm close) and before the dump. So I was thinking I had done my money - which for the last trading day in 4 days is not a good idea psychologically. There were a few extra details in my favour to make the trade a bit better than what it seemed, but that is a little technical. The SPI surge lifted the XJO enough to close at 5759.40, -30.10. Ladder binary (5755) safe as, and the range binary just! Again (like the short on open) the closest you could be before you got into trouble. If it was -30.00 that would have ticked over into the other range binary I believe (20-30). Anyway, I won't take credit for it. Still the $520 per contract along with the $530 for the ladder was a nice end to the week. The ladder binary again providing a backup in case the range binary went to high, which it almost did. That would have kept me flat instead of taking a loss. Again, the risk was doubling my loss, yet I had the expectation of a positive bias into the close which is what I traded. The SPI sold off in the last say 5mins, but kept inside it's earlier lows. The Dow and Asia (Nikkei and China) have strengthened again, and IG is pricing the SPI 10pts above its close. After a good day - relax, enjoy the long weekend - psychologically speaking. For the XJO - our big banks had a positive day, the miners weaker by at about 1%. Probably a more defensive play for the long weekend. Enjoy. A lot of Australia goes back on to usual (non-summer) time this weekend I think. I don't - my state doesn't change. Yet that will kick the SPI an hour earlier/later from next week.
  21. Another note - 20pt move in IG's after hours ASX/SPI that is worth trading. The Dow up 49, the Nikkei again leading the surge.
  22. 8:58am Today would expect a steady start that should weaken into a range into 1pm (off lows). Boring afternoon ranging most likely, positive bias. Dow futures already up a touch, and the Nikkei seems strong v everyone. What happened to gold last night ? End of month perhaps. That (end of month) and the last trading day (till midnight for the SPI) for 4 days will make it a tricky day to anticipate.
  23. Hi Thanks ! - I appreciate your comments. Short answer is that I don't really have a plan. It depends on what the ASX is doing. There are a few things that make binaries a bit more profitable - like not over trading, and being patient (closer to expiry is often more predictable). It takes a different mindset to trade binaries, which is not that hard to develop, and once you do it makes things easier. I'll have a bit of a think about it and maybe post some more later.
  24. Good day to trade binaries - ban schman EU. The SPI had a good start, interestingly ignoring its overnight close all together! Quite unusual. The Dow futures were a touch stronger pre-open, taking a bit of heat out of the overnight lead. Yet we were having none of it, options already deciding the days events. The open was sold back down to the low, which then rallied and ranged as expected. 1pm there wasn't much on offer as the price was in between ladder levels, and was easy for IG to price safely. There was a 5800 ladder that could have been sold, but it was a risk and best left alone. Went to zero (so profitable if sold). The afternoon sold off but then recovered, and ranged into close, a touch lower on expiry as hinted. That was where the trades were for the day - at 3:44pm a buy for a "down 40-50" range binary for 52 (a touch over my preferred 50 or less for buying), yet the binary was in the money (XJO - 41). Then near the close, there was a risky 5790 ladder binary to sell for 49 (again a touch under my preferred 50 or above for selling) - probably too risky in hindsight, but I was expecting weakness after seeing stronger selling all PM, and there was a chance the range binary (with my expectation) would go lower than 50. The sold 5790 ladder would protect losses from that scenario, almost double my profit if the range held, but possibly double my losses if I was wrong. Nope - XJO 5789.50 -42.80. Tidy. The ASX ie XJO was down 0.7%, with the major banks and miners mostly down over 1%. Asia was hit a bit harder, China down over 2%, Japan down about 1.4%. During the day Japan was a touch stronger, but that weakened into the EU open. That (EU open) also has dragged the Dow futures lower, down 37 now, yet it was up over 55 mid session for the ASX. The SPI is selling off now into the day's close, following the rest of the world. YET the algo's are keeping it real and under their control. I love it. Mindless. Interesting the pricing of the binaries this arvo - ladder binaries were hit hard suddenly with no real change on the ASX or SPI. The 5790 ladder I sold was up near 50, then 1min later down at 22-32 bid-ask. That's a big drop with the SPI only down probably 1more pt. Dealing desk up to something...
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