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Zero

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Everything posted by Zero

  1. Strong negative lead overnight ie. Fri. night/Sat morn. The SPI didn't really fall much, so we either aren't too concerned, or we'll catch-up (to the downside) today. For example - Friday morning post-Trump-tweet, the Dow futures were down 300 and we gapped down on the open 40 to 5748. Almost 24hours later, the Dow closed down 572 yet the SPI is only 10pts lower at 5739. I would expect some selling on the open to stabilise, recover a touch into a range 1pm. Relax, an attempt to rally in the PM should fade but steady into the close. Mondays can be interesting. The EU open is of
  2. If he could do it before I've posted my pre-open expectations on the forum in the future... After 1pm the buying continued, but faded back into a range. Then there was a bit of an unwind close to the close of day 4pm, back to the mystery level 5770. Interesting where the high was - algo perfect for those interested. So the high of the day wasn't a special support/resistance level. Into the last 10mins, I expected a bit of an up move - which it did (to 5770 again - its getting a bit silly now), but then the third day in a row the internal correlation re-adjustment meant the cash market
  3. Half time and the game is on ! Nothing like a Trump tweet to drop the market (Dow futures) 300pts before the day begins. We opened 40pts lower than the previous night's close, which is a lot. Nice if you were holding a short (unlikely as the market rose into the overnight close) - probably the best trade of the day. After that it was a bit confused (the market) and while I was clueless that tweet was going to be dropped on the market, my expected flow was pretty good (I am surprised too). The market wanted to rally, fell back, had another half-baked try (only 10pt rallies too) then
  4. Good lead overnight should follow through today. Some mucking around on the open, a relax, then heading higher 1pm. Pullback should recover into a positive range and stronger close. Eyeing the NFP tonight. I remember my first killer binary trade - it was a Friday pre-NFP and for some reason the SPI was being bought all day strongly. I took a big risk with some out of the money binaries (so risked 8 to make 92) right on the close, which came good. That was about 4 years ago - I still keep an eye out on NFP Fridays.
  5. Buying consistently across the day, but their conviction eased a touch after say 12:45pm. Still bought over the afternoon, but at 3:30pm they wanted stuff done at 5770 (SPI) (dropping about 5pts). Oddly that was last night's high... Dow futures were about 90 pts higher most of the day, but they seemed to drag us lower at 3:30pm, dropping about 40pts. Everything else (Asia, Europe) didn't change. Morning relaxed lower on open, then moved higher, had a pit-stop (important one though) and then continued higher. The PM was ranging near (but below) highs, then ranged lower into close. Inte
  6. Big night - on the EU re-open, the SPI tanked 70pts (wonder if that big order on the cash close was in the know....??), but then has done a 91pt U-turn. I remember not seeing that range in a whole week back in the days. Today would expect a relax on open to rally to a high, then fall back to be steady 1pm. Any weakness then will be bought up into a ranging close. Some trade data 11:30am locally. Yet the overnight moves will likely move the market, including reactions from Asia.
  7. Hi Panda, In my opinion IG weren't pricing them correctly. I don't know if they price depending on their view of the market or their exposure. If exposure, they were short heavily the ladder binaries and were trying to convince clients to take a risk as you suggested. If market view, then they'd first be taking a risk (don't believe they predicted the last minute rally) and they'd have to expect contrary to the momentum it would shoot higher (then hope client's don't muck up their pricing) Their pricing of the range binary suggested they expected it to fall which was reflected in the l
  8. I'll give you points for making me laugh. I think I'll call you Grasshopper - you are always searching for a guru. (Maybe only a joke locally). Anyway - do you know the liquidity associated those gains?
  9. Hmm, well that so-called mispricing worked in my favour, keeping me out. Well, if I was in I would have been flat, with the ladder binary (5760 sell) losing v the range binary (up 0-10) profiting. Days like this mystify me - well the day evolved as expected, yet the last 30sec. is a mystery. Huge buying contrary to the whole day. As if someone closed out a hedge - I might think of another explanation, but regardless, the buying pushed the SPI to new highs on the XJO close (yet the XJO didn't make new highs - this is another tricky thing that can't be helped - the internal correlation chang
  10. Actually, the binaries are being priced too cheaply, so not worth selling. Should be 55 sell at the moment say, with the XJO 5761, yet the 5760 ladder binary only a 43 sell.. Range binary (up 0-10) too expensive at 58 buy with the XJO +9.30 (should be closer to 50. So - fiddle fiddle. The dealing desk weighting their prices. Market just dropped 4 points with some heavy selling, so all of the above would have been locked in (so now "worse"). Maybe there is another binary, 20min or hourly...
  11. Thinking about it I can't see there to be a problem, despite my earlier post (100pts ID). I don't really know - I guess there was no reason in the past to open one here if you lived in the EU or UK. They would tell you straight up anyway. The particular company is taking the risk - say if a client was to not pay up - harder to get money when they don't live in the country. Same reason I wouldn't use a company outside Australia. Caseynotes is right - the tax considerations and currency factor are inconveniences. If I ever needed the help desk (back in the days) outside regular hours
  12. This strength may fade into the close. Algo's could be happy keeping things contained from here, 5760 binary a possible sell, range binaries also yet there is no need to get in to them at the moment (in case it falls more than 7, which would be a new range). Dow futures down 77 yet most of Asia positive. Selling into the indiscriminate buying locally. Miners flat, banks up about 0.5%.
  13. It seems to be the standard procedure - IG aren't acting out of the norm. For whatever reasons, it seems to be what's done. Whether it is right or not is another question. Perhaps if you fit the criteria of having a massive bank then they don't care. Otherwise they want to see a trading history. I agree - all non-EU brokers would be loving this. I would want more than three months of uncertainty before making such decisions too. The whole thing is a mess.
  14. Can't see how that would work - I thought you would need 100pts of ID here in Australia which would have to include a local address. Then the funding, ie. bank. Not sure of the setup here (for IG Markets Australia), but again assume local banks would be required, or local currency. Otherwise you'd have an FX trade with every trade. Could be totally wrong, and be glad to be corrected (I was thinking of opening a UK account a year ago if I moved over to the UK - never looked into it, but assumed that what's I'd need to do). Getting a global bank account the problem, otherwise a local o
  15. My one line tip for the day might have seemed a bit useless, but it was pretty close to the day's flow. Despite the big lead, we opened steady (note at 5690, so my buy at 5624 was a good risk to take - IG's 24hour market is something to really appreciate if you're a client), then stormed higher. Well in spurts (ranging higher my terminology). Sort of 30pts then a pause, 20pts, pause, then 10. Made a high at lunch, then relaxed a touch, back up into 1pm. No real binaries as the surge took the price out of IG's expected 1pm range. After 1pm, the market waited for the RBA non-event,
  16. Expect a weak start to stabilise then range higher. Fall back after 1pm, steady, then back up into the close. RBA at 2:30pm, consensus is no change. Be interesting to watch the open. Four days off, and a big lead overnight. I was watching IG earlier and they had priced the SPI at 5624 with the Dow down 742. I bought there (mentally) thinking it was too far. Up 50pts already - but the open of the SPI will be more interesting. IG already having us down 70pts. We'll see how good their algorithms are for anticipating this (opening price). Normally they are ok but the lead-up this
  17. Sorry but I don't see this as trend following. In a day you would have bought and sold the same asset. Sometimes both for a loss. If you were following a trend, you would go long and stay long for example (for more than an hour). Unless like I said you have short term trends, in which case it is probably not trend following but some sort of momo trade. You like trades near the o'clocks or news time maybe. I say you as you seem quite invested in promoting this, and know more about it than you claim. Its good you want detailed analysis or constructive criticism but that's not how you
  18. This thread is a bit weird. 80% a week - assuming you risk your whole account? Or 80% of what. A tread follower couldn't give those returns as trends don't follow weekly risk-reward patterns. Are you assuming this EA is a trend following EA or do you know. If you know, how? You need more than three days or are they three day trends? Maybe it's just a momentum trade. IF it is (a trend-following EA) then good luck - you'll be looking for EA 51 soon if the market kicks it up a gear into Volmageddon again. But you don't want these discussions. You just want to make money. What
  19. Hi Good point. I forgot about that. Thanks. It was a bit dicey here in the last hours of the day. The big players stepped in but the algo's had to keep it all neat and tidy, so while there were some unexpected moves, they were still "precise" if that makes sense.
  20. A day of millimetres. Started off with a bang before the market opened - the Dow futures (and Nikkei) pushing the market higher on the open. IG were pretty good to make the market accurately after hours (ie. before the open). The hint to trade that 20pt move was sneaky and worth the risk. A low risk trade (to short obviously) which actually would have been 4pts clear of the actual SPI high. The SPI opened on it's high (5789) and fell, had a rally but then sold off as suggested. The price at my post with IG's market making was the equivalent of about 5793. By lunch the SPI had dropped ab
  21. Another note - 20pt move in IG's after hours ASX/SPI that is worth trading. The Dow up 49, the Nikkei again leading the surge.
  22. 8:58am Today would expect a steady start that should weaken into a range into 1pm (off lows). Boring afternoon ranging most likely, positive bias. Dow futures already up a touch, and the Nikkei seems strong v everyone. What happened to gold last night ? End of month perhaps. That (end of month) and the last trading day (till midnight for the SPI) for 4 days will make it a tricky day to anticipate.
  23. Hi Thanks ! - I appreciate your comments. Short answer is that I don't really have a plan. It depends on what the ASX is doing. There are a few things that make binaries a bit more profitable - like not over trading, and being patient (closer to expiry is often more predictable). It takes a different mindset to trade binaries, which is not that hard to develop, and once you do it makes things easier. I'll have a bit of a think about it and maybe post some more later.
  24. Good day to trade binaries - ban schman EU. The SPI had a good start, interestingly ignoring its overnight close all together! Quite unusual. The Dow futures were a touch stronger pre-open, taking a bit of heat out of the overnight lead. Yet we were having none of it, options already deciding the days events. The open was sold back down to the low, which then rallied and ranged as expected. 1pm there wasn't much on offer as the price was in between ladder levels, and was easy for IG to price safely. There was a 5800 ladder that could have been sold, but it was a risk and best left alone
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