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Everything posted by Zero

  1. Today option expiry - early due to Easter. Strong fall again overnight leading us down, with an almost 60pt fall from yesterday's cash close. Expect a steady start to weaken, then rally back into a range. Similarly in the afternoon, weakness to rally back and then fade a bit into a range close. Lots of "forces" that could muck up all of that. The Dow lead, and the options (anything goes at times for option expiry) fiddling.
  2. I can't believe that - does it mean what it seems to say? Hard to read it any other way. Be good to hear from IG. I'm glad I don't live in the EU. Does the Brexit mean IG UK are safe...? Then there's NADEX to consider - the model I mean. What a joke.
  3. The most annoying thing is to see good trades go to waste.... Today I was a bit busy, and expected a ranging PM after a v shaped morning, so didn't keep much of an eye on the markets. It was a killer day for binaries if you could (and my opinion is you should...!)... I did see the closing action and there were two binaries for a steal - about 40pts for a buy 5830 ladder and a range up 40-50. If you were being ultra diligent, you would have stuck to the 5830 ladder, as the cash was at 5829.20 just before 4pm, which was the equivalent of up 38.70. With no overshoot risk, and a higher probab
  4. Last week's selling was mitigated today on the SPI as expected. Early weakness rallied, faded, then had a bit more of a go (ie rallied a bit further) but that died out and it ranged for a few hours at the highs. There was a surge into 1pm as hinted at. That was good for binaries, but IG was lucky to price them a bit too high, which meant the 5790 ladder (1pm) was a touch too expensive (even though it was out of the money) for 55 to buy. Yet it was a profitable trade - the expiry at 5790.00 exactly. In that case IG would honour the buy side. Frustrating if you sold - you'd be right but w
  5. New week, shortened week. Strong lead from the Fri/Sat US fall has fizzled out a bit, and IG is pricing the SPI over 20pts higher than its close, which is something worth watching... Dow futures up almost 70 already. We/Australia benefits from the weekend to buffer any extreme moves from the US close of the previous week. Our SPI would have reacted in real time, but Monday's open has a totally different psychology after a weekend to get over it. 9:22am Yet today, expect the markets to weaken on the open, but then reverse and try and push higher. A few attempts, which will likely hit
  6. Considering the touch up the Asian markets were given, the SPI held it's own pretty well. Down about 2% v -4.3% for the Nikkei and -4.8% China, which accelerated around 4pm. SPI had heavy selling after the XJO (ASX200) closed, down to it's daily low. The daily flow was an early surge which sold off all morning into 1pm as expected. The small mid-morning bump was one of those algo-perfect moves on a Friday that I hinted at. The selling found a range (small) around 12pm, and kept that into the 1pm digital 100 expiry, staying weak. I was out all morning, got home and looked at the pric
  7. After a 742pt drop on the Dow, it will be an interesting day. The SPI fell to its lows early, but didn't make new lows into the close yet the Dow dropped another 300 pts! Algo's can be pedantic. Today would expect some weakness on the 9:50 open, but then a rally before falling back, settling at a level into 1pm. After 1pm would expect some buying to try and kick in, but it will most likely fade back and end up ranging, steady into the close. Probably a day to be flexible, as if the volatility has kicked up (again), the average surge may be larger than normal. Makes binaries a bit tric
  8. Hmm. My anticipation was better than I thought. As if I entered the Matrix today. Sold off on the open, at a precisely defined level, then steadied. Buying kicked in for a small rally back to the starting price, then given a boost into lunch/1pm to the days high. A big seller there capped the move just before 1pm. That selling strengthened after 1pm (China sold off after they lifted their Reverse Repo Rate a touch - as they have been doing apparently) till mid afternoon. Then steadied, with a small bounce/range. The best was into the final close - which ended up basically where it sta
  9. Hmm, interesting. Thanks. Something is brewing. The DAX seems to have some seriously sharp falls in the mix. Never pay much attention to it.
  10. 8:46 AEST Expect the market to weaken on the open, then stabilise and range higher, higher into 1pm. Relax lower and then again, steadying with a bit of a bounce and range into the close, keeping near the end of day price into the final close. (ie. the market for the ASX closes at 4pm, but then there is 10mins of off-market fiddling, giving a final value for the ASX200 at 4:10pm. That's where/when the digital 100's expire. There's job data at 11:30am too.
  11. Hi Thanks for the encouragement and kind words. I'll try and give some useful tips when I am watching the markets. I can often give a "before the market opens" anticipated theme for the day (morning, lunch say, and then into the close), and then maybe some shorter term digital 100s. While I can't back up my tips with my own money, the public accountability is enough to keep things honest. Two things - I don't really use TA, or money management as per the possibly conventional wisdom, which might make my posts different for other traders - but "it" works for me (doesn't mean it could
  12. Today saw a rally on the open (following the US and overnight SPI) fade right back down to where it started, then ranged there until a brief surge from about 1:30pm till 2pm. Then it did nothing until 10seconds before the close of the ASX200 for the day. Hard to believe. What was happening at every trading desk around the country/world for those 2hours 39mins 50seconds...? Anyway, I noticed some cheap digital 100's at 3:57pm (first time I checked for the day so can't comment on earlier pricing) where the 5950 ladder was cheap for a buy at 48. Cheap considering the XJO was about 5950.30
  13. Thinking of starting a new ASX200 / SPI (ASX futures contract) thread, with some anticipated daily moves, or trade ideas (daily), or daily summary/interesting things. IF IG don't allow trading tips then I won't. I will admit upfront I won't be able to trade the digital 100 trade ideas myself which is not of my choosing, but hopefully that doesn't make the suggestions any less legit.
  14. Hi novice0001 I'm not sure if there is any info anywhere explaining the whole process. There used to be some examples when they were called binaries - the IG website had some trade examples. The selling early that you quote would mean that you can sell them any time up to the expiry (or the lockout before expiry - normally 1min for 20min digital 100's or 10mins for the end of day ASX digital 100's). So if you get in and think you've made a dud trade, you can close it out and minimize your expected loss. Or vice versa, you can take profits before expiry. It sort of helps if you
  15. Hi Thanks for the clarification. Quite helpful. Anyone reading this should be impressed - 20contracts for a binary (per clip as they say - so probably 30sec) is amazing for any trading instrument. This afternoon the ASX went sideways for 3 hours. Try and CFD that - but a "digital 100" 10pt range at 20 contracts or more, probably could have paid 50 for the range you wanted (or less). Or sell the ladder at the top of the range (which was obvious today of all days, for 50, and then by now your 20 contracts would be worth $10,000 (just over 5000 pounds). It will expire at zero too, so y
  16. Hi - Hmm - good point. They have re-named them Digital 100's as you've said. My platform, the old one - still has them as when they were called Binaries. They have culled the one-touch, but apart from that all the same. Yet on the new platform (maybe UK based) they seem to offer less binaries for the ASX. Not sure about other markets. The name change is perhaps more fitting with the popularity of crypto (even though they are unrelated) - yet the thing that I would be annoyed at (if I was a hard-core IG Client) is that they've copied CMC (it seems) which is dumb because IG were way
  17. I am assuming that no one trades binaries, either successfully or unsuccessfully. I've been "away for a while" and on return wonder ? what do traders do around here - does anyone trade consistently and profitably? ? Why doesn't anyone go nuts about binaries - I mean it's a big deal if an asset price drops by 50%, yet every 20mins with binaries there are opportunities to make that kind of return. Fair enough, the liquidity is probably not the same, but then the fairness of the analogy depends on the trader and also the opportunity. You might get one move in a crypto that is close to 5
  18. Hi, Just a quick question on behalf of a friend: How many binary contracts would a new client (or a client) expect to be able to trade? Under 10, more than 10? More than 5? Do any traders here use binaries - and if so are you profitable - or does everyone now trade Crypto (boring!) ? Thanks to anyone (or IG) for your experience/help.
  19. Sorry for not posting here yesterday on close. Lost my internet again in the morning, and finally got it back on today - pathetic hey. It has cost me a bad loss today (smart-phone day trading is not possible - tough lesson to learn) which will take months to make back. Not to mention the missed opps. over the week. I also found out that IG's restrictions on me aren't as what I was led to believe, (they're worse) and are making me reconsider my time here. I only found out accidently (ie. due to being let down by IG), which could have cost me another bad loss. I am looking around a
  20. Back online after some technical difficulties... Expect the ASX/SPI to fall on the open, steady, rally a little, fallback, then form a range from that. Then in the PM expect a range to continue (rally, sell off a touch, rally back...). I hope someone was trading on Tuesday seeing as I couldn't. ? I don't see any commentary anywhere, yet the RBA's surprise cut sent the SPI up by 100 by the close! That's money for jam.
  21. Interesting - . Wonder why he moved to Futex. Seems like a step downwards (he claims he was successful at JPM)?
  22. Bit of a counter-trend day today (we rallied despite the leads) which is why I suggested a tidy up day. Annoying - well in theory annoying, as we have no reason for not falling when the Nikkei is down over 500 (again) and the Dow fell strongly last night. The Yen also rallied again, as did the $AUD. Gold took off a bit too around 12pm. The SPI had a bit of indecision on the open, started to sell, but then rallied strongly. That relaxed, ranged, then moved higher into 1pm. I took a small short there into 1pm, just trading the overshoot pullback. I really wanted to short at 1pm, but a
  23. Today end of month, tidy up perhaps from the moves of the past days. I expect a tricky start to sell off, rally a touch, range then relax a bit but steady up into 1pm. Then I'll look for some shorts which should come back a bit into the close, then range into expiry.
  24. You're right  - often there is just as good a move about 1hour later (moving outside the day-trading regime) - like now. The move is continuing - the Nikkei has moved lower 350pts more than it's low of the day (if I was to get in anywhere in its move) and the Yen about 1000pips. Interestingly the Yen didn't have much of a whipsaw, as didn't the $AUD yesterday after the CPI smash. While I was making a point regarding the effects on trading psychology - it can have a regret factor that is also something to consider. So there are two sides of it to consider. Normally for my time zone th
  25. Great post Caseynotes  - and you don't need a Fib level or nth wave to tell you. Simple - that's how the market works - liquidity is king.
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