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Everything posted by Zero

  1. Today option expiry - early due to Easter. Strong fall again overnight leading us down, with an almost 60pt fall from yesterday's cash close. Expect a steady start to weaken, then rally back into a range. Similarly in the afternoon, weakness to rally back and then fade a bit into a range close. Lots of "forces" that could muck up all of that. The Dow lead, and the options (anything goes at times for option expiry) fiddling.
  2. I can't believe that - does it mean what it seems to say? Hard to read it any other way. Be good to hear from IG. I'm glad I don't live in the EU. Does the Brexit mean IG UK are safe...? Then there's NADEX to consider - the model I mean. What a joke.
  3. The most annoying thing is to see good trades go to waste.... Today I was a bit busy, and expected a ranging PM after a v shaped morning, so didn't keep much of an eye on the markets. It was a killer day for binaries if you could (and my opinion is you should...!)... I did see the closing action and there were two binaries for a steal - about 40pts for a buy 5830 ladder and a range up 40-50. If you were being ultra diligent, you would have stuck to the 5830 ladder, as the cash was at 5829.20 just before 4pm, which was the equivalent of up 38.70. With no overshoot risk, and a higher probability, the ladder was the one to chose. Probably a touch more expensive, but with binaries you just want to be right more than you want to finesse the price of entry. Cash closed at 5832.30 up 41.80, binaries to 100. The whole day was a range, with some early selling bought up, and then extended a touch over lunch. That faded, then rallied again (though not to new highs), then settled down, relaxed a touch after 4pm but then came home strongly into expiry (4:10pm). This time the buying (not selling) continued after the XJO closed, up to the day's high, with solid buying. During the day there was selling into the strength, which reversed after the cash closed. We didn't go nuts like the US did last night, and today was a consolidation of yesterday's strength. Miners out-performed major banks. US futures were strong all session (over 100) and the Nikkei was the star, up about 2.4%, China up 1.5% (fading into the close). Europe is opening an hour earlier too from this week (for Australian traders). Can be something to watch - if it is leading a move, then the SPI and XJO will get a move on from 4pm (when the DAX kicks in). (Edited a value - 28.70 to 38.70).
  4. Last week's selling was mitigated today on the SPI as expected. Early weakness rallied, faded, then had a bit more of a go (ie rallied a bit further) but that died out and it ranged for a few hours at the highs. There was a surge into 1pm as hinted at. That was good for binaries, but IG was lucky to price them a bit too high, which meant the 5790 ladder (1pm) was a touch too expensive (even though it was out of the money) for 55 to buy. Yet it was a profitable trade - the expiry at 5790.00 exactly. In that case IG would honour the buy side. Frustrating if you sold - you'd be right but wrong and get nothing! The art of binaries (or digital 100's if you prefer). Yet I chose a safer option (which oddly was cheaper, work that out - possibly a minute earlier) a 20min binary for 52 buy 5789.50 strike, in the money to 100. Then some selling kicked in as hinted, but that rallied, and got a bit of a go on at around 3pm to a new high for the day. But after that the market just faded into the close. There was an odd spike in the last 5mins, but into the close of the cash at 4:10pm the market came off as expected. That was a more risky play, as all afternoon the big players were basically buying. So to sell into that was a risk. Yet there was a good binary - a range binary down 30-40 for 27 (actually 33 by the time the trade would have been on). The market at 4pm (the end of day lock out for digital 100's) was at 5792.60 - a hard place to trade as it was a touch too far away for any binary considering the buying pressure (and I was looking to sell). A two point fall for the range binary was a lot to ask for, and yet on expiry the XJO closed at 5790.50 down 30.20, meaning the buy at 33 expired at 100, a profit of 67. With a good trade at 1pm, that was a bonus, but for trading psychology considerations, it would have been just as good to leave the end of day due to the potentially conflicting signals (me personally). The better trade would have been a buy at about 2pm, but I wasn't watching then. Come 4:16pm the market was hit, with the Dow and Nikkei leading the charge. The SPI surged to a new high (interesting range...) with decent buying. The Dow was strong right from the early open, futures up about 135 and kept strong all day. The Nikkei was down about 200, which rallied by 1pm to a small loss, but then that has reversed in this last surge to now be up 115ish. Nothing really outstanding in our selling. The banks weaker than the miners percentage wise. All down nevertheless. That tip this morning would also have been a 20pts low risk CFD trade. $500 per contract. Anyway, I might fade myself from doing this everyday. Three days, three not so bad predictions given before the market even opened. Each day a minimum two profitable binaries where you could have doubled your investment with a fixed risk (digital 100's). Today there were two views (ie forum/community views) all day (and one of them probably mine). The Morning Call somehow got 80 in maybe an hour, and to be honest, despite the quality of the report, there is no information in that to use to make money. I seriously wonder what IG clients do?
  5. New week, shortened week. Strong lead from the Fri/Sat US fall has fizzled out a bit, and IG is pricing the SPI over 20pts higher than its close, which is something worth watching... Dow futures up almost 70 already. We/Australia benefits from the weekend to buffer any extreme moves from the US close of the previous week. Our SPI would have reacted in real time, but Monday's open has a totally different psychology after a weekend to get over it. 9:22am Yet today, expect the markets to weaken on the open, but then reverse and try and push higher. A few attempts, which will likely hit some selling pressure and fade. Watching for a positive move into 1pm. Then, again, some selling should be met with an attempt to rally, which will most likely fade into the close of day and cash close/expiry.
  6. Considering the touch up the Asian markets were given, the SPI held it's own pretty well. Down about 2% v -4.3% for the Nikkei and -4.8% China, which accelerated around 4pm. SPI had heavy selling after the XJO (ASX200) closed, down to it's daily low. The daily flow was an early surge which sold off all morning into 1pm as expected. The small mid-morning bump was one of those algo-perfect moves on a Friday that I hinted at. The selling found a range (small) around 12pm, and kept that into the 1pm digital 100 expiry, staying weak. I was out all morning, got home and looked at the prices at 12:57pm, and saw something priced too high - the 5820 ladder - for a sell at 51, and then another (same 5820 ladder, second lot) at 43 (I was confident) - possibly another at 55 (not sure if the 1min lockout kicked in). The Dow futures had a small surge into 1pm but the SPI relaxed to be at 5818.70, binaries safe and a good trade for 3mins of work. After 1pm, the market relaxed, then rallied as anticipated, but that faded into a range. Held that tightly into the close, again, and stayed there for any binaries. There was a nicely priced 5820 ladder (again!! - interesting) but this time a buy for 52. Closed at 5820.70. All up for the day at least $1420 per contract (51 sell, 43 sell, and 52 buy) with about 5mins screen time. On the ASX, there was nothing but red - the miners heavily hit BHP 3% and RIO 4% falls. Banks just over 2% falls. Interestingly, Woodside Petroleum was only down 0.1%. Maybe a defensive trade in all of this turmoil? I don't care much about these details to trade, but they are useful to give a story to the day. Or to tell people who ask - suddenly everyone wants to know you when the markets are falling out of bed. Interesting observation for the day - SPI the same range as yesterday. The overnight lead very different however.... As rightly said, there is a bit more to this tariff war. The details with Trump are always key, and as of now it is a bit vague. Tonight will be good to see how the US follows through. The dump in the last hour was harsh, may consolidate tonight. The futures are down 170ish pre-EU open. China and the Nikkei in particular have sold off into their close.
  7. After a 742pt drop on the Dow, it will be an interesting day. The SPI fell to its lows early, but didn't make new lows into the close yet the Dow dropped another 300 pts! Algo's can be pedantic. Today would expect some weakness on the 9:50 open, but then a rally before falling back, settling at a level into 1pm. After 1pm would expect some buying to try and kick in, but it will most likely fade back and end up ranging, steady into the close. Probably a day to be flexible, as if the volatility has kicked up (again), the average surge may be larger than normal. Makes binaries a bit trickier... Often before the weekend there are a few clear things to watch during the day - again with the large move overnight it will be good to watch to see how/if the algo's can still do their thing.
  8. Hmm. My anticipation was better than I thought. As if I entered the Matrix today. Sold off on the open, at a precisely defined level, then steadied. Buying kicked in for a small rally back to the starting price, then given a boost into lunch/1pm to the days high. A big seller there capped the move just before 1pm. That selling strengthened after 1pm (China sold off after they lifted their Reverse Repo Rate a touch - as they have been doing apparently) till mid afternoon. Then steadied, with a small bounce/range. The best was into the final close - which ended up basically where it started (so 4pm price was 5937.50 say and the final close 5937.20). The kicker was that there were some 20min digital 100s (can I use the term binaries please...) priced too cheaply! Way too cheaply. In the money but buying for 52 - some bargains for those on the job. As it were, the similar binary was on offer for 52 at 3:40pm. As an aside - that goes to show some of the uses of binaries. The same profit - yet for one you have 20mins of uncertainty, but also 20mins where you could take remedial action if required v one where you have 1min of room-to-move. But of course, you could load up with more contracts 20mins out. XJO closed at 5937.20 meaning those two binaries I saw were profitable. I didn't look for others, but there would have been options galore from 11am. The miners (BHP, WPL (Woodside Petroleum) and RIO) were strong on our market, rest a bit ordinary (weaker). Well QBE an insurance stock stood out as well, also more than 2% gain. China dragged everything a bit lower for most of the session, but after 4pm the Dow and Nikkei recovered a bit, China slowly following. The SPI sold off again after the cash market finally closed, but was happy to settle at the initial (so at 4:11pm) sell-off range. Another interesting aside - an algo was the master today. Too precise to be ignored...
  9. Hmm, interesting. Thanks. Something is brewing. The DAX seems to have some seriously sharp falls in the mix. Never pay much attention to it.
  10. 8:46 AEST Expect the market to weaken on the open, then stabilise and range higher, higher into 1pm. Relax lower and then again, steadying with a bit of a bounce and range into the close, keeping near the end of day price into the final close. (ie. the market for the ASX closes at 4pm, but then there is 10mins of off-market fiddling, giving a final value for the ASX200 at 4:10pm. That's where/when the digital 100's expire. There's job data at 11:30am too.
  11. Hi Thanks for the encouragement and kind words. I'll try and give some useful tips when I am watching the markets. I can often give a "before the market opens" anticipated theme for the day (morning, lunch say, and then into the close), and then maybe some shorter term digital 100s. While I can't back up my tips with my own money, the public accountability is enough to keep things honest. Two things - I don't really use TA, or money management as per the possibly conventional wisdom, which might make my posts different for other traders - but "it" works for me (doesn't mean it couldn't work better of course). Trading psyche is the biggest factor anyway. Incorporating that into a thread would be a challenge but useful... Hmm. Cheers.
  12. Today saw a rally on the open (following the US and overnight SPI) fade right back down to where it started, then ranged there until a brief surge from about 1:30pm till 2pm. Then it did nothing until 10seconds before the close of the ASX200 for the day. Hard to believe. What was happening at every trading desk around the country/world for those 2hours 39mins 50seconds...? Anyway, I noticed some cheap digital 100's at 3:57pm (first time I checked for the day so can't comment on earlier pricing) where the 5950 ladder was cheap for a buy at 48. Cheap considering the XJO was about 5950.30, then 5949.90. Virtually in the money for 50 is good if you can get it. The next 10mins of lockout was flat, until heavy selling in the last 10sec and for a minute after. That was interesting as despite the selling, the XJO actually went up 0.1 to close at 5930.30, meaning those digital100s would have expired at 100. (Oddly the opposite cause for this effect happened yesterday). As per yesterday too, there was heavy selling in the last minutes as a big player squared his exposure for the night session and/or FOMC.
  13. Thinking of starting a new ASX200 / SPI (ASX futures contract) thread, with some anticipated daily moves, or trade ideas (daily), or daily summary/interesting things. IF IG don't allow trading tips then I won't. I will admit upfront I won't be able to trade the digital 100 trade ideas myself which is not of my choosing, but hopefully that doesn't make the suggestions any less legit.
  14. Hi novice0001 I'm not sure if there is any info anywhere explaining the whole process. There used to be some examples when they were called binaries - the IG website had some trade examples. The selling early that you quote would mean that you can sell them any time up to the expiry (or the lockout before expiry - normally 1min for 20min digital 100's or 10mins for the end of day ASX digital 100's). So if you get in and think you've made a dud trade, you can close it out and minimize your expected loss. Or vice versa, you can take profits before expiry. It sort of helps if you have a feel for options. The digital 100's were once called binary options - so a type of options contract - and they are priced using a similar method (quite complex maths). But the standard elements of an option are still there for the digital 100 - time decay, an expiry time and price. In my opinion, you need to first be able to understand the market you're trading (for me the ASX200). If you have a good feel for how the price moves for it - then you can fit a digital 100 to any condition at almost any time to trade it. People here on the forum should be helpful if you need further explanation on how the whole process for digital 100's work anyway. Cheers.
  15. Hi Thanks for the clarification. Quite helpful. Anyone reading this should be impressed - 20contracts for a binary (per clip as they say - so probably 30sec) is amazing for any trading instrument. This afternoon the ASX went sideways for 3 hours. Try and CFD that - but a "digital 100" 10pt range at 20 contracts or more, probably could have paid 50 for the range you wanted (or less). Or sell the ladder at the top of the range (which was obvious today of all days, for 50, and then by now your 20 contracts would be worth $10,000 (just over 5000 pounds). It will expire at zero too, so you'll make the $ for the sold binary (will close in 4 mins but anyway I'm calling it). Maybe I should post free ASX trades here somewhere.... Thanks again James.
  16. Hi - Hmm - good point. They have re-named them Digital 100's as you've said. My platform, the old one - still has them as when they were called Binaries. They have culled the one-touch, but apart from that all the same. Yet on the new platform (maybe UK based) they seem to offer less binaries for the ASX. Not sure about other markets. The name change is perhaps more fitting with the popularity of crypto (even though they are unrelated) - yet the thing that I would be annoyed at (if I was a hard-core IG Client) is that they've copied CMC (it seems) which is dumb because IG were way way way ahead of any other broker with their "binaries". Yet they've come down a level with their binaries to be more in line with someone like CMC (who when they first brought them out called them digital something - maybe digital 100's also). But you're correct - I should be calling them Digital 100's. From my platform and for the ASX the underlying thing to trade is still pretty much the same - spreads a bit wider, and IG much more on the ball with their pricing. But the profit potential pretty close to what it was, and the structure of the digital 100 the same as the corresponding binary when it was so called. Thanks for the comment - cheers.
  17. I am assuming that no one trades binaries, either successfully or unsuccessfully. I've been "away for a while" and on return wonder ? what do traders do around here - does anyone trade consistently and profitably? ? Why doesn't anyone go nuts about binaries - I mean it's a big deal if an asset price drops by 50%, yet every 20mins with binaries there are opportunities to make that kind of return. Fair enough, the liquidity is probably not the same, but then the fairness of the analogy depends on the trader and also the opportunity. You might get one move in a crypto that is close to 50% in 4 months say, yet every 20mins on the ASX it is theoretically possible. Easily 5 or 6 per day. And then there's the 3:1 moves, eg. buy for 30 sell for 100. Sometimes buy/sell 20/80 close out at 100/0. They're rare, and almost washed out by IG's spread. But if Bitcoin fell from 8000 to zero everyone would be talking... Quantum Computers might have a say in that, but that's another topic... Binaries are under-appreciated in my opinion anyway. Still wondering what IG's current liquidity offering is for binaries however, if anyone knows...?
  18. Hi, Just a quick question on behalf of a friend: How many binary contracts would a new client (or a client) expect to be able to trade? Under 10, more than 10? More than 5? Do any traders here use binaries - and if so are you profitable - or does everyone now trade Crypto (boring!) ? Thanks to anyone (or IG) for your experience/help.
  19. Sorry for not posting here yesterday on close. Lost my internet again in the morning, and finally got it back on today - pathetic hey. It has cost me a bad loss today (smart-phone day trading is not possible - tough lesson to learn) which will take months to make back. Not to mention the missed opps. over the week. I also found out that IG's restrictions on me aren't as what I was led to believe, (they're worse) and are making me reconsider my time here. I only found out accidently (ie. due to being let down by IG), which could have cost me another bad loss. I am looking around anyway. Don't let the ASX thread die...
  20. Back online after some technical difficulties... Expect the ASX/SPI to fall on the open, steady, rally a little, fallback, then form a range from that. Then in the PM expect a range to continue (rally, sell off a touch, rally back...). I hope someone was trading on Tuesday seeing as I couldn't. ? I don't see any commentary anywhere, yet the RBA's surprise cut sent the SPI up by 100 by the close! That's money for jam.
  21. Bit of a counter-trend day today (we rallied despite the leads) which is why I suggested a tidy up day. Annoying - well in theory annoying, as we have no reason for not falling when the Nikkei is down over 500 (again) and the Dow fell strongly last night. The Yen also rallied again, as did the $AUD. Gold took off a bit too around 12pm. The SPI had a bit of indecision on the open, started to sell, but then rallied strongly. That relaxed, ranged, then moved higher into 1pm. I took a small short there into 1pm, just trading the overshoot pullback. I really wanted to short at 1pm, but am still getting used to my new trading "rules" and just botched it up. So missed that - shorts were on as suggested, but not for too far (down 20) - reversed then ranged into close and expiry. I was going to trade a higher range together with a short of the high (sell one-touch which was above the day's high) - only put on half the hedged trade then got tricked trying to wait for a higher price for the second half. Silly - ended up missing out and then being exposed into the close. Didn't end well, traded it back with a short short! after the expiry, but would rather not do that. Can't say it was a neat and tidy day - oddly. As well, and again, divergences - and nothing really "worked" that often shows up on Friday. Should have just gone with the basics and traded my suggested flow of the day. A few Friday-moves were still there however. We basically didn't respond to much today in the way of correlations - the Dow was up 20 then down 15, then flatish on the close, but rallied 30, along with the Nikkei (60) when the DAX opened (XJO closed). Currencies (Yen, $AUD) also were active (higher) early, and then held their gains. We just slowly (! boring) moved where we had to.
  22. Today end of month, tidy up perhaps from the moves of the past days. I expect a tricky start to sell off, rally a touch, range then relax a bit but steady up into 1pm. Then I'll look for some shorts which should come back a bit into the close, then range into expiry.
  23. You're right  - often there is just as good a move about 1hour later (moving outside the day-trading regime) - like now. The move is continuing - the Nikkei has moved lower 350pts more than it's low of the day (if I was to get in anywhere in its move) and the Yen about 1000pips. Interestingly the Yen didn't have much of a whipsaw, as didn't the $AUD yesterday after the CPI smash. While I was making a point regarding the effects on trading psychology - it can have a regret factor that is also something to consider. So there are two sides of it to consider. Normally for my time zone they are things I have to sleep on...
  24. Another monster-move day today thanks to Kuroda-san. We started off civily, with a pullback from overnight , which steadied, then rallied into 1pm. Quite a strong surge too right into 1pm, even sending a binary to a new level in the last minute with a 3pt move on the XJO - meaning the binary went from about 20 to 100! R 4. I didn't intended to trade today, so left that one, and the rest of the day. The BoJ was meant to meet sometime in the afternoon, but suddenly about 1:05pm the Nikkei went from +200 to 0 in a second and the Yen up 2000pips. I tried to short the pants off the SPI, but thanks to my new restrictions I just got rejected. About 6 times. By then the Nikkei was down over 600! - not a good idea to get caught in the whiplash - which came on cue with the SPI bouncing strongly, then falling even more strongly. It was slow to get into gear at the start and then decided enough was enough at some random point, steadied, ranged, then moved higher even, relaxing to range into the close. Into the cash close or expiry, the market rallied strongly as suggested, the positive bias kicking in nicely. After all the potential hiccups possible today, I'm pleased things went as expected despite not profiting from it. Moves like today with the Nikkei and Yen dragging the SPI down 40 pts in 20mins are nice if you get onto them, but they can negatively impact your trading psychology. So I don't mind leaving them on the table. All PM the Nikkei stayed between -500 and -650, the Dow futures down about 110 on avg., the Yen -2200 avg. and China fell away into 4pm down 24. Sets things up for an interesting night.
  25. I expect a pullback from overnight to steady, range a bit then rally into 1pm. From there, it should relax, then return higher, ranging there and into the close (positive bias still). A lot of data out of Japan today, including the BoJ. I'll side-step any silly business if I trade. Am having a half-day today.
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