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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    I have mentioned this before but the weekend does encounter major moves in Cryptocurrencies when they are trending up. I noticed this a couple of years ago. I had to keep my positions open on Friday as otherwise I would have missed some major gains. This is an extremely high risk strategy so I would not encourage anyone to do this but I did this in all my madness but reaped the rewards with some excellent returns. Very high risk and dangerous but for the serious Cryptocurrency traders it is worth bearing in mind when they are trending up strongly.
  2. To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin. At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4 hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections. As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying.
  3. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Bitcoin has crossed that psychological $4000.00 mark and hit $4151.70. If it can cross $4200.00 then things are really going to start getting interesting as the bulk of the downside has been done. Yes there could be a new low and we may see $2000 or so but the large chunk of the downside activity has occurred in my personal opinion. For me now going forwards the key is whether Bitcoin surpasses the $4200 level and stays above it. If it does then it is going to target at some point in 2019 the $6500.00 level. The price action will now either validate my assumption by its price behaviour or invalidate it.
  4. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @elle, An interesting watch. This is an excellent example of why not to trade against the trend which is clearly up at the moment unless you are looking at a yearly timeframe!!!
  5. The US 500 which is the (S&P 500) is an attractive potential shorting opportunity. As many of you know I like to be as open and transparent as possible. I like to keep things simple and really add significant value to the IG Community with real live trades. I have today opened a short position on the US 500 at 2506.91 via IG's Spread Betting platform. I should get daily credit interest as well - 😉 Why did I pick this to short ahead of the other indices? Well first of all it has lower margin requirements than other indices. This is extremely important when one is adding to short positions as the price continues to move downwards thus trying to maximise profits. Also the trends seem similar when comparing it to the Dow so why use up extra capital on margin requirements? Again I am sharing some of my live trades with the IG Community and will share my views, thinking and rationale behind any decisions. I will not hide behind complex analysis and complex theory that many may find difficult to follow or understand.
  6. TrendFollower

    Trend Following by TrendFollower

    @Dantro, My personal basis is to start with the daily and then compare it to the weekly and monthly. Only then do I look at lower timeframes and primarily 4 hour to 1 hour timeframes to establish if in sync with direction of trend. I only use lower timeframes for day trading or short term trades. When I am trend following then I am looking at the longer timeframes more as I am going to keep the position open until the trend changes. If there are any big drops and the trade has clearly gone against me then my stop loss should have triggered and executed an exit from the trade. I always know my exit price before I enter the trade. This is a key part of my trading strategy. When I am in profit then I switch to a trialing stop so I know I cannot make a loss in that trade. I have no issues re entering that trade should trend confirmation take place. I am comfortable entering the trade as many times as I need to but at the same time I am happy to move on to the next trend should any trend confirmation not be established. I try not to trade against the trend.
  7. I am going to take this opportunity to start a new post on 'Trend Following'. I am going to try to keep it as simple as possible for any new investors / traders who may be interested in trend following principles and adopting them within their trading / investing strategy. Even existing or experienced traders / investors may find this useful. If the more experienced traders / investors would like to enrich this thread then I would encourage them to do so, thus enhancing the overall discussion on trend following. I will start off by stating, "Failing to plan is a plan to fail." So always make sure you have a trading / investment plan that you can both execute and using discipline stick to. Have strict rules that you can follow. This is crucial as without a clear plan with rules one simply cannot trade effectively using trend following principles. One must understand that trend following has its flaws and it simply cannot predict future market movements. You will make losses. The key is to ensure that your profits cover your losses even if that means that out of ten trades you profit on three and make losses on seven. That is fine as long as the profit on the three winning trades is greater than the losses on the seven losing trades. Accepting this may mean a total change in mindset which may prove to be difficult for some. This is where an individual's personality comes in. One must assess which markets it is going to trade and have a system in place to help identify trends both upwards and downwards. Trend following aims to capture the middle of the trend so you never get in at the bottom or sell at the top. Volatility must be embraced and seen as an opportunity. Reacting to market trends as they happen is key. For those who are familiar with my posts then you will see that demonstrated on commodities such as Orange Juice, Cotton ,Wheat, Lumber, etc. No one can predict the future but using trend following principles based on historical and current price behaviour one can make assumptions. These assumptions can only be tested and presented as evidence based on the price action. It is ok to be wrong and one must not be scared or worried about what others may think. I am sure I have made many incorrect assumptions based on historical and current price action in the past and I am sure I will continue to do so. Making assumptions and then testing those assumptions is a key part of learning and gaining valuable experience. One can learn a lot more from their losses than they can from their winners. This can assist in coming up with sound risk management principles within the trading / investing plan. Be ruthless and trade both long and short depending on price movements. For those that are familiar with my posts will appreciate that I am an advocate of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. I have a long term long position in Bitcoin and Ether using XBT Provider One products and opened a long position when Bitcoin was around $2000.00. That is a long term trade. Now using spread betting on IG's platform I recently shorted Bitcoin even though at the same time I had the long position. The price action for Bitcoin merited a short position which using basic technical analysis one could not argue against. The trend had reversed to short. Now some of you may be wondering why I did not close my XBT Bitcoin trade. I am human and though one must try and eliminate emotion from the trade my flaw is that I believe in the long term story of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. This is only a flaw if they all come crashing down but I cannot predict the future so I simply do not know. Due to my convictions and beliefs which could be wrong all I can do is ensure that if any shorting opportunities come on Cryptocurrencies then I take them as I have two long positions in Bitcoin and Ether. This is where IG's Spread Betting platform works really well for me. It allows me to short both Bitcoin and Ether with leverage. Trends can change very quickly and this is where risk management comes in. One must have entry and exit rules which they stick to. It is fine to adapt these rules over time as experience may dictate a change in entry and exit points. Something I always think about when placing a trade is, 'Knowing your exit price before you enter the trade'. Stop losses and proper use of leverage are fundamental. One must let their winners run and not take profits too early. Only when there are indicators of a trend reversal must one exit and this should be done by the stop loss let. TrendFollower Tip: Trailing Stop Losses are great on winning positions so if you are not using them then you may want to consider them. I have kept this opening post very basic and simple. The detail will follow depending on the engagement this thread receives. I am out of the country from 31.07.18 to 26.08.18 so I am not available but on my return normal service will resume!
  8. TrendFollower

    Trading

    To add to some of @Caseynotes points above I would like to add some key ingredients which are essential for all traders even before they get to the list mentioned above: This is a list which I have created so it will not be found in any text books or social media.: Passion, Enthusiasm and Dedication for Trading Willingness to put the effort and hard work in to learning about trading Continuous Improvement in Reading and Researching (R&R) - Continuous Learning Identifying which assets to trade and focus on and developing a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system I think we all can come up with different lists in different order and there is no given correct list in the correct sequence but I personally believe that with out my list above it makes it very difficult to complete the list in @Caseynotes post.
  9. TrendFollower

    Global Brands

    Very interesting. Will Bitcoin as a brand be anywhere in the next 15 years?
  10. TrendFollower

    Trading

    @Caseynotes & @EMDE, I agree with @Caseynotespost above. @EMDE it is much harder than the article tries to demonstrate. If it were easy then we all would be doing it extremely successfully. It is hard and requires lots of effort, price monitoring, trend monitoring, etc. Using a longer term timeframe in my opinion is the easy bit when applying the MTF approach. What is difficult is when you begin analysing LTF's and this is where it starts becoming tricky due to volatility, false breakouts and false trend reversals, etc. However, it can be done and there are many who apply this successfully when executed well. If think the key for me personally is to ensure when looking at the LTF's then it is clearly aligned with the HTF's. I always try to ensure this when using a MTF approach as even if short term the trade goes against you then (based on stop loss distance) it can always recover as you are trading with the longer term timeframe trend.
  11. TrendFollower

    Trying to transfer ISA out but no response

    @Caseynotes, Yes good point. I remember I had to do something similar when I transferred my ISA a few years back.
  12. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    If the trend strength continues in the same manner with Gold, it could potentially see anywhere between $1360 - $1380 being hit by end of April 2019. This is an assumption based on current trend strength and momentum. For Silver I can see the $16.50 to $17.00 level could be potentially met by end of April 2019 if the trend continued in the same vein. However, Silver seems to be weakening more so than Gold so I def. see Silver as a more risker trade than Gold. It will have more volatile price movements (so for short term or day trading may be better). Gold is the less riskier and less volatile trade for a longer term perspective. Again this is an assumption based on current trend strength and momentum which is looking more weaker than Gold. I try to use assumption based modelling techniques and try and make assumptions which I then test using the price actions and trends that follow. There is absolutely nothing wrong is making assumptions and then testing them. This is a form of 'forward testing' which I actually thinks adds far more value than simply a pure 'backtesting' strategy. If I really want to see how effective my trading system is then I think it is crucial to have some form of 'forward testing'. Both backtesting and forward testing by themselves have flaws. By using them both when devising a trading system for a particular asset can be more beneficial. Offering a balanced view it must be noted that even by doing this does not guarantee any success of profits. It merely increases your knowledge, experience, understanding and odds/probability in executing successful trades.
  13. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    I was looking at the Gold chart and the one thing I have noticed since the 'bottom' on Thursday 16th August 2018 is that Gold has been making 'higher lows' and to a certain degree 'higher highs' though the lower lows have been more stronger than the higher highs. Now a potential Gold trade could be that when the next higher low is formed to open a long trade with a stop loss around the $1200 area to ensure volatility does not stop you out unnecessarily. I think a price to go long around the $1220 - $1225 area could be achievable and also an attractive entry point. I see Gold trying to attempt the $1243.00 area which would bring it nicely towards the 200 day moving average price. This is something that I myself will be considering as Gold is currently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is my indicator/signal to start getting interested. I am never convinced with the potential points / profits on offer with Gold and I do not at this point envisage a big move in Gold which is the reason why I have not yet pulled the trigger on such a trade. For me to personally be interested in this trade I would need to apply some serious leverage to maximise the profit potential as I just do not see a big move yet in Gold. It could happen in the months or years to come but right now I am not sure. I could be wrong and Brexit could start a domino effect but I do think Gold has the potential based on the current price action to certainly go for the $1243 area which could be a nice short term trade. I have included a diagram below where I have highlighted the 'lower lows' and slightly weaker 'higher highs' below. The circle at the end is where I am envisaging the price to hit at some point in December / January should this trend continue. I think there is a potential short term 'Long' trade here in Gold and though I am not a fan of Gold based on point / profit potential, I think I could get interested when applying leverage to maximise any profits in such a trade.
  14. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    At this point I have a feeling that the US indices are looking to make new 52 week highs. The trend is very strong and has a bullish uptrend bias. One can always look for potential shorting opportunities in almost any asset that can be traded. It is not difficult for one to suggest that there is a potential shorting opportunity and give reasons why they think that. The market does not always confirm to economic theory, market expectations, expert analysis / interpretation, technical analysis, etc. Traders do not have a crystal ball in terms of knowing what will happen six months in the future. The market is a crystal ball as it is telling its participants and painting a picture of what it can see six months in the future (market discounting mechanism). I have been wrong so far in looking at a potential shorting opportunity in the US indices. When I made my assumptions there was a strong bias downwards and a strong move downwards did occur but then after this we all can see what happened. My assumptions were tested and proved incorrect. That is fine. That is how one can learn and gain valuable experience for future trades. The key was I cut my losses quickly and exited, minimising my losses. It would be ironic if we now see a monster downward move! It can happen but the one thing I keep telling myself if never go against the trend regardless of what I think or what my personal emotions and beliefs are. Never trade against the trend.
  15. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Bitcoin is holding up rather well. If Bitcoin was to surpass the $4200.00 level then I think I would have to consider manually intervening and possibly closing my short. I still think the $6500.00 level is the crucial price point which will confirm a trend reversal. I have just quickly whipped up a chart with some illustrations as there are times when a visual message can say more things than lots of words. I have tried to keep the chart, SIMPLE, CLEAR and STRAIGHTFORWARD (SCS).
  16. TrendFollower

    Trading

    @EMDE, This is why it is advised that new traders stick to a specific timeframe and then trade only that timeframe rather than switching between them as it can only confuse them. Are you a day trader, short term trader, medium term trader or long term trader? There are no given rules that suggest charts should run in correlation with each other. In reality they do not which is what makes trading difficult and entry points very tricky indeed. I cannot tell you what you should do as I do not know if you have a trading plan, trading strategy or even a trading system. The answer to your question should be somewhere in this or at least the information which can give you the answer. I follow 'Trend Following' principles so I stay in the position as long as the trend is in place. This could be one day, one week, one month or even one year. I have no timescale in place in terms of exiting apart from when the trend reverses and my stop loss is triggered. Therefore as long as you trade with the trend rather than against it then in theory (it is only theory) should enhance your odds on success against failure (does not guarantee) and increase the probability of a profitable trade but again I repeat there are no guarantees. Try using oscillators, moving averages, momentum, volume and trend strength to assist you in making an informed decision on entry points. There is no magic answer or solution that will work on finding entry points on every trade regardless of asset as otherwise trading would become far easier. In reality trading is extremely difficult and even the best traders will make losses and get entry points in trades wrong. I have learnt over the years that whatever strategy you adopt it must increase your odds and probability in the trade so to use parameters, signals and indicators that can help you with this.
  17. TrendFollower

    Trying to transfer ISA out but no response

    @yogitree, This seems like a bad level of customer service to me. I do not know IG's internal customer service policies and how they both manage and execute them but it really should not be difficult or time consuming in todays time to switch ISA's. I am not sure why you have to fill in an AML when looking to switch. I can understand why you would have to if you were opening a new ISA as the provider would need to be satisfied that the capital has not been derived from ill gotten gains. However you have been holding your funds with IG so surely they would have completed the AML process at the start of your journey with them, not at the end! This is like allowing a criminal to deposit criminal proceeds into a bank, pay them interest on this and then after a few years when they are looking to withdraw this capital, asking them where the money originated from!!! @JamesIG, are you able to assist @yogitree?
  18. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    There are two things which one must consider that is happening in relation to the Bitcoin price behaviour and Crypto's in general available on IG's platform. One is that a bottom has been confirmed and we are witnessing the beginning of an upward trend. The second is that this is just like all the previous rallies that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and is the relief 'sucker' rally which will then lead to a new low or at the very least test the all time low. Lots of different experts are suggesting different things and I have no idea who is right or who is wrong. I cannot simply rely on the online media community and publications to make a judgement or informed trading decision. Therefore I must use technical indicators to help me establish if new higher lows and new higher highs are being formed. I need to satisfy myself that a trend reversal has been confirmed. I need to use the moving averages to tell me whether a trend is in play. I need to look at the strength of the trend and momentum to tell me whether this is genuinely bullish or just plain old bull poo. Even if it is the start of a bull move and I miss out by not getting in near the bottom then as someone who follows trend following principles that is fine. It is about catching the bulk of the move in the middle so right now it is too early to enter the Crypto and Bitcoin trade on the 'long' side unless you are merely speculating, gambling, hoping or of course you are a short term trader or day trader which is actually then fine to trade Bitcoin and Cryptos on the long side.
  19. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, From a fundamental perspective there will be supply/demand implications. So output from SA is declining. Add uneconomic uncertainty and then price action / trends and you have a 'perfect cocktail / storm' for an aggressive trend and price behaviour upwards. I accept it does not always play out like this due to speculation, contrarian moves and aggressive short selling creating intense volatility but the potential is there for a major move upwards in Gold.
  20. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    It seems Bitcoin is going to go for that psychological $4000 mark which it has failed to break through on the past couple of occasions. The fact that Bitcoin has not dropped and is trying again makes me wonder whether it may do so once the US markets open or overnight and possibly during the weekend. When I used to trade Bitcoin a couple of years ago the amount of big moves that came during the weekend was staggering. It got to a stage where I had to leave a long position open on Friday 10:00 pm to reap the rewards on Sunday night when the market re-opened. The trading times have changed since then but a I noticed quite a few very big moves occurring during the weekend. I do not advise traders to leave positions open overnight or take on such large risk but that is what I had to do as otherwise I was missing all the big weekend moves. Of course it went wrong on a couple of occasions so it was a very high risk play and 'gapping' was a serious issue but I no longer trade Bitcoin in that way anymore.
  21. TrendFollower

    Smart Money - Precious Metals

    Palladium is performing strongly on the upside and has been since August and September 2018. August 2018 was also when the Gold upward journey began. It is all about identifying these breakouts and assessing how strong these trends are by monitoring the price action.
  22. TrendFollower

    Smart Money - Precious Metals

    Looking at the trends for Precious Metals right now with the Hurricane and North Korea missile launched then it seems the smart money is going into Precious Metals. Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are performing as one would expect. There may be a short term play here where profits can be made. What will be interesting is how Bitcoin performs now with the news that North Korea launched missile. Last time around it shot up. Lets see what happens. There is a nice trend on Copper too! The doctor is performing.
  23. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    The longer the US-China trade talks continue and the longer the matter is unclear and lingers on, the major US markets will not begin a major sell off. This will only happen once the US-China trade deal is confirmed. Up until then there will be plenty of buying, speculation and anticipation driving up US indices at at the very least sideways. The major shorting opportunity that some of us here on IG have been waiting for can only begin once the positive news is out of the way. Still no trend reversal or confirmation via price action to initiate a 'short' trade from a trend following perspective.
  24. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @OceansJess, In terms of trading Gold you may wish to start off by just monitoring the price action of Gold. Just live and breathe the price behaviour of Gold so that you are fully in tune with it. Identify what happens on days it goes down and what drives it to go up. Then try and look at how you would enter and exit such a trade. What would be the better entry points? Look at oscillators and see if you can use them to try and execute better entry points. Also at the same time try and understand the fundamentals for Gold. Understand the supply and demand of the hard metal and the production and mining of Gold. Research Gold's historical performance and establish how it has reacted in the past. This by no means is a guarantee that it will behave the same going forwards but you get a more rounded knowledge on the asset to help you make an informed decision on whether to trade it, invest in it or neither.
  25. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    US indices are looking a bit toppy. The upward trend is looking exhausted and waiting for either positive / negative news. The US indices keep enticing potential short sellers and teasing them but the market is ruthless and its price will behave like one least expects hence why 81% of IG's retail customers lose money when using CFD and Spread Betting Call me cynical but the could the US Federal Reserve keep propping up US markets? They may know what a disastrous outcome it could be if they did not. Everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet — and how it could impact you https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/federal-reserve-balance-sheet/ The US Federal Reserve is rather vague when it comes to clearly outlining its plan for reducing its balance sheet and ending a decade long QE programme.
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