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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. The US 500 which is the (S&P 500) is an attractive potential shorting opportunity. As many of you know I like to be as open and transparent as possible. I like to keep things simple and really add significant value to the IG Community with real live trades. I have today opened a short position on the US 500 at 2506.91 via IG's Spread Betting platform. I should get daily credit interest as well - 😉 Why did I pick this to short ahead of the other indices? Well first of all it has lower margin requirements than other indices. This is extremely important when one is adding to short positions as the price continues to move downwards thus trying to maximise profits. Also the trends seem similar when comparing it to the Dow so why use up extra capital on margin requirements? Again I am sharing some of my live trades with the IG Community and will share my views, thinking and rationale behind any decisions. I will not hide behind complex analysis and complex theory that many may find difficult to follow or understand.
  2. To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin. At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4 hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections. As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying.
  3. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    So Craig Wright is suggesting he is Satoshi according to a SEC filing. Bitcoin is approaching its first month since July 2018 where it could end in positive territory. Is this the end of the bear market in Cryptocurrencies? At this moment in time the long term trend in Cryptocurrencies offered on IG's platform is still downwards. These rallies in the past have been great in 'suckering' people in. I was one of them when some of my indicators were hit for Stellar and Ripple and I made losses on both of those trades. I have not gone long since from a trading perspective though I am still long on Bitcoin from an investment perspective since the $2000 levels which I executed over two years ago. Bitcoin needs to cross $4,000 first and foremost before any meaningful discussion or debate can take place in terms of future price behaviour for this asset. If it does not then there is always the possibility for further downside movement leading to another new low for Bitcoin et al.
  4. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    I was looking at the Gold chart and the one thing I have noticed since the 'bottom' on Thursday 16th August 2018 is that Gold has been making 'higher lows' and to a certain degree 'higher highs' though the lower lows have been more stronger than the higher highs. Now a potential Gold trade could be that when the next higher low is formed to open a long trade with a stop loss around the $1200 area to ensure volatility does not stop you out unnecessarily. I think a price to go long around the $1220 - $1225 area could be achievable and also an attractive entry point. I see Gold trying to attempt the $1243.00 area which would bring it nicely towards the 200 day moving average price. This is something that I myself will be considering as Gold is currently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is my indicator/signal to start getting interested. I am never convinced with the potential points / profits on offer with Gold and I do not at this point envisage a big move in Gold which is the reason why I have not yet pulled the trigger on such a trade. For me to personally be interested in this trade I would need to apply some serious leverage to maximise the profit potential as I just do not see a big move yet in Gold. It could happen in the months or years to come but right now I am not sure. I could be wrong and Brexit could start a domino effect but I do think Gold has the potential based on the current price action to certainly go for the $1243 area which could be a nice short term trade. I have included a diagram below where I have highlighted the 'lower lows' and slightly weaker 'higher highs' below. The circle at the end is where I am envisaging the price to hit at some point in December / January should this trend continue. I think there is a potential short term 'Long' trade here in Gold and though I am not a fan of Gold based on point / profit potential, I think I could get interested when applying leverage to maximise any profits in such a trade.
  5. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Chris Beauchamp, You have stated the following in your latest posting on Gold today on IG's main home page: Gold returns to January peak The gold price has moved back to the $1326 highs seen three weeks ago. From here the price will break into the $1326-$1365 range from the first few months of 2018. Intraday pullbacks towards $1316 are likely to find support. You state 'WILL' break... I am not suggesting you are wrong and I actually agree that I think it is likely to hit such levels. However, may I ask if possible if you could provide more analysis and detail behind such strong convictions as otherwise there is very little value in what you state. 'Will' is a very strong word which infers it will definitely occur and I am sure many of us will agree that the markets do not always behave like one expects.
  6. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    If Gold continues its upward trajectory then I am expecting a sharp spike in Silver very soon. Silver has a lot of catching up to do!
  7. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    A lot of people have messaged me asking if I think they should initiate a long position now? I cannot answer this as my personal view is that the US indices will see some form of major correction which will be a great shorting opportunity. I am waiting for this on the side lines as on my previous shorting attempt my timing was out and I made a loss so it was a failed trade. My short started off very well but my timing meant that when this rather quick and large rally came my trade was caught up in it. What I have been doing is day trading on the 'long' side the US indices. The reason why I am day trading is so that I am consistently and regularly taking my profits and a few losses. Also I believe that the trend is showing signs of 'exhaustion' and 'weakness' so there could be a turning point soon but I do not know if this will happen or if it does then exactly when. Critical junctures are coming so the price action will tell us the future narrative. Therefore at this moment in time based on price action alone any short term trades would be in my personal opinion on the long side as my trading philosophy is not to go against the trend regardless of my personal emotions and beliefs. @Caseynotes posted something very interesting and useful showing how long bull markets last compared to bear markets for US and it means any major trend reversal if it happens will be sharp and quick in terms of timescales when compared against any bullish upward trends. I personally do not feel comfortable from a risk perspective to keep any new 'long' positions on US indices open for a longer period of time hence why I am day trading as if any of the trades go against me on a particular day then I have cut my losses quickly.
  8. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    It seems Gold has just broken its previous recent high. It still seems intent on making new higher lows and higher highs. Silver will have plenty to catch up on but Gold is certainly taking the lead and playing the tune in this rally rather than Silver. Historically this tends to be the case more often than not.
  9. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    If there is to be a positive announcement in relation to the US-China trade talks then until any confirmed announcement to this degree is released by the media the US indices could just continue to go up. 'Anticipation - Price Action' The trade here could be 'Buy the rumour - Sell the news' strategy. Right now the trade is 'long' on US indices and certainly not short.
  10. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Gold seems poised to make a move on its next leg upwards and seems to be leading the way with Silver trying to play catch up. It seems Silver is following Gold's lead. Gold finished around $1321 and Silver $15.74.
  11. TrendFollower

    Bonds and Gilts

    @JamesIG, Some traders on IG Community expect there to be a drop in major equities. They also think precious metal prices may go up. If this plays out then an important asset which often traders never seem to talk about or discuss is Bonds and Gilts. You may wish to set up a new section on the IG Community called Bonds? If things do play out (there is no guarantee that they will) but if they and major stock markets decline and precious metals do increase in value then I think Bonds should see a price increase in such conditions as institutions and 'High Net Worth Individuals' (HNW) shift part of their capital into this asset class to protect their portfolios. Bonds are a 'defensive' assets that tend to rise in value in such conditions. The smart money tends to enter Bonds before the mainstream media talk about them. The smart traders will notice the trends before traders begin trading them. Have a look at the price action on some of the following: US Treasury Bond US 10-Year T-Note German Bund US Ultra Treasury Bond US 5-Year T-Note US 2-Year T-Note Japanese Government Bond I for one am keeping a close eye on the price action for these (above). I shall let the price action confirm my assumptions. Also Bonds as an asset class tend to be a lot less volatile than other asset classes so they should not be crazy daily swings like we are seeing on major indices right now. The one thing most of the above have in common is that they are all trading above the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages on a '4 hour' timeframe.
  12. TrendFollower

    Bonds and Gilts

    Apparently Italian Bonds (especially long dated over short dated) over value. Italy's Most Beaten-Up Bonds Are Place to Be for NatWest, HSBC https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/italy-s-longer-dated-debt-is-place-to-be-for-natwest-and-hsbc I personally am interested in Germany Bonds and potentially UK and US Bonds should they teeter on a recessionary phase. Also I have more confidence in Germany, UK and US Bonds over Italian Bonds. With Brexit and turmoil in the EU another Greece is just waiting to happen.
  13. TrendFollower

    Bear Bull Historical Chart

    @Caseynotes, yes it does. We are seeing this in dramatic fashion right now. If you look at Natural Gas, Orange Juice and Lumber charts over the past couple of years then you will see the long move upwards and the sharp and quick correction downwards.
  14. TrendFollower

    Bear Bull Historical Chart

    @Caseynotes, That was very interesting. As I am have stated in many posts strong upward trends can last a lot longer than one thinks. Generally downward trends last a lot less, are more quicker and sharper.
  15. TrendFollower

    Value Changes?

    @Dantro, By having a stop loss strategy you should know your exit before you enter the trade. Have a look at indicators such as volume (is it increasing along with the price action), momentum, RSI, moving averages, etc. Use all of these and others to help you make an informed decision. Why is the particular asset moving in the direction it is. Use Oscilators for potential entry points when you have identified a trend. What moving averages are you looking at from a time perspective? Even after applying all of the above you can still lose on a trade if your timing is wrong. Trading is supposed to be extremely difficult and anyone who suggests otherwise is wrong. It will require a large capital buffer, patience, discipline, effort, etc. The hardest thing to do as a trader is nothing. Sometimes merely waiting patiently for the right opportunity to trade based on trends is hard if you are 'trigger happy'.
  16. TrendFollower

    Bonds and Gilts

    In my personal experience when I see yields on Bonds declining it means that Bond prices are rising. This activity over a prolonged period can sometimes be a signal of a potential recession around the corner. UK Bond prices will be very interesting over the coming weeks and months. If this is to play out like I think it will then the price behaviour on Bonds and Gilts can be added to my 'decision making basket' so that it can assist me along with many other indicators as to when the market may begin to decline in anticipation of a serious recession.
  17. TrendFollower

    Bonds and Gilts

    Bank of England crimps investors’ rate expectations https://www.ft.com/content/4878173e-2ad9-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7
  18. TrendFollower

    Bonds and Gilts

    German Buxl up 115 points today at the time of writing. There were some really big and noticeable price rises today on the Bond market. The institutions will be shifting and allocating a proportion of capital from the super rich and wealthy investment portfolio's into Bonds. I think we are seeing that shift gather pace. It has been gradually happening slowly over the past 12 months but I think as Brexit and political turmoil around the world takes shape then it will be more obvious and apparent. I would expect the Precious Metals market to move in tandem and more specifically Gold but this is an assumption and I shall wait for the price behaviour to either confirm or reject such an assumption.
  19. TrendFollower

    Bonds and Gilts

    If one looks at the German Bund chart then it looks very interesting indeed. The trend is upwards and the price action is supporting this over the past 12 months which could possibly mean there has been a shift in capital and strategy for some of the largest players in the bond market. The price is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. The German Buxl is also showing encouraging price action over the past 12 months. The UK Long Gilt has spiked up over the past month and so too has the French OAT and German Bobl. If you then compare this with the 3 month Eurodollar price action then it begins to tell a narrative of what may be starting to happen with a shift in capital towards precious metals and bonds. Once Brexit and US-China trade talks are concluded then certain economies around the world may begin to unravel and head towards recession. If this were to happen then Bond and Gilt prices may be a key indicator in terms of how they behave and react.
  20. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Gold and Silver have dropped below the levels I mentioned on Tuesday at 21:09.
  21. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    Could even go higher.
  22. Not that I am aware of. It would be great though. 😀
  23. TrendFollower

    US ETF: Your order has been rejected.

    @rwolst, You could try contacting customer services either through chat, e-mail or phone.
  24. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @elle, Yes agree. Trend is your friend until there is a bend.
  25. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Gold at $1313 and Silver at $15.75.
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