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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @kingtrader72, Had you gone long on 4th April 2019 then you would be losing capital. One of the reasons would be that you would be trading against a strong bearish trend. You also need to look at the supply / demand issues for Coffee and any fundamental factors which are driving coffee prices down. One would need to appreciate the background narrative being played before placing any trading position. I would suggest either short coffee or if you feel uncomfortable shorting an asset then wait patiently and do nothing. Wait for a clear trend reversal.
  2. The momentum is indicating bearishness. It has gone below 0. Just how far it goes down will be of most importance to Gold traders. The Parabolic SAR is signalling the threat of a trend change. Once it goes below the dots then it may indicate a potential trend change, especially if the price action continues to go downwards.
  3. Brexit has been delayed and the media are reporting positive trade talks between US-China. This has created the atmosphere for bearish price action. At the same time major indices have been bullish which again has called for a bearish environment.
  4. The US indices just keep rising and rising. The Nasdaq 100 seems the closest to its 52 week high and seems to be leading the way with the Dow and S&P following its path. What happens when all three meet this point is going to be absolutely fascinating.
  5. It is 21:24 UK time and Bitcoin Cash is up 11% already. There will have been a lot of traders who were stopped out due to the extreme volatility witnessed today. They also would not have gone back in but Bitcoin Cash is moving way ahead of other Cryptos as the rest are all trading in the red bar Bitcoin Gold which is up 0.74%.
  6. Bitcoin Cash Just Outcompeted Litecoin On CoinMarketCap https://www.investinblockchain.com/bitcoin-cash-outcompeted-litecoin-coinmarketcap/
  7. Litecoin Achieves New Heights As Lightning Strikes Twice https://cryptobriefing.com/litecoin-hashrate-lightning-network/ The question is whether this is priced in already?
  8. There is some absolutely crazy volatility going on not just for Bitcoin but all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platform. My guess is it is computer driven automatic trades going on using complex algorithmic trading methods and high speed frequency trading. What this enables them is to ruthlessly close down all those poor innocent traders with tight stop losses on a high risk asset like Cryptos that get stopped out thus making losses whilst the big boy bullies buy back in at cheaper / lower prices. Rinse and repeat when one least expects. This is whilst the charts are showing a bullish trend and they know exactly what indicators traders who trade Cryptos are using.
  9. Yes valid point @cryptotrader. Makes sense.
  10. @nit2wynit, Yes, fair points you make. I try to trade only strong trending assets using Spread Betting for the very reasons you highlight as issues. Anything else and the risks you articulate come into play. I do not have any time or income targets. If you have a trading plan which is to generate £50k income by trading for two hours a day then you need to have a trading strategy that you can execute which will give you the chance and opportunity to do this. Your trading system needs to be adequate enough to generate this income using the time trading specified. You would need to select the right assets to trade at the right time to have any chance of meeting this target.
  11. @Minde1, Using ETP's involves counterparty risk. Also the accuracy of tracking the asset can be questionable on some of them. They are so complex and obscure in how they are set up that the normal person will simply not understand how they are set up and operate.
  12. @cryptotrader, Oh ok. I did not realise that IG required market cap of £10m. A lot of nano caps have markets caps of less than £3m so it would def. rule them out. That is interesting.
  13. In theory you could if you were transferring from one ISA provider to another though it may take far longer than transferring the money from your bank or paying into your account by debit card. Bear that in mind.
  14. @williambedwell, Yes you will find some (more likely the AIM 100) rather than the thousand or so (junk) which are listed on the AIM market. Some of these will be micro caps and the majority are likely to be 'Nano Caps'.
  15. Precious Metals generally are looking bearish and the media is reporting positive talks between US and China and Brexit delays thus providing a negative narrative. It seems there is some consolidation going on but the important question is whether Palladium will: 1) Continue its upward trend 2) Continue its downward trend 3) Continue its sideways trend Of course the above depends on which timeframe you are looking at but one could argue that Palladium is showing all three of the above. I do not know the answer but the price action is going to tell us the answer. It is the only one that can!
  16. For me Gold is showing weakness and this could be a healthy correction before another move upward resumes. I do not know. What I do know is that Gold is showing bearish signals and the trend is not upwards right now when looking at the 'daily'. This may be a shorter term trend downwards or it could be deeper. Again I do not know but right now the price action is showing weakness.
  17. U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales numbers for Lean Hogs released on Thursday were very interesting. The USDA pegged net U.S. pork sales at 90,700 metric tons for the March 29 to April 4 period, with China buying 77,700 metric tons. Using Supply and Demand information, the fundamentals for Lean Hogs with clear support from the price action delivers a strong and bullish trend. How long this will continue no one knows but 'Trend Identification' is a key part of any trend following strategy and this is where a lot of traders who follow trend following principles miss the big returns because they stick to familiar assets. It is not the asset which is important but the trend and price action in my personal opinion.
  18. @nit2wynit, You may be interested in reading my 'Potential Long Gold Trade' thread. There may be snippets in there which could possibly be of interest to you.
  19. I am going to show the chart for Lean Hogs which it is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA on the 'daily'. Another key factor is that the moving average curves are all sloping upwards which is bullish as the chart below will show. So what is the reason for the spike. When technical analysis meets fundamental analysis and the reason for the price action is known and is a strong driver then the trends seem to also be strong. Now demand from China is increasing due to African swine fever which is contagious. Now it is reported that China is the largest consumer in the world for Pork. It produces and consumers over half of all the Pork in the world. It seems this increased demand from China is pushing up US prices. Now when one begins to understand why the price is bullish and trending upwards and can link the fundamental supply and demand picture with the technical narrative then one is presented with a strong trading opportunity. Now based on my previous threads and posts of identifying trend commodities I expect an IG Analyst to post something in relation to Lean Hogs shortly. They normally do so after I have identified the trending opportunity to the IG Community. LOL. 🤣😂
  20. Gold is looking bearish. It is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA. The $1256.35 level represents its 200 DMA on the 'daily' which will be a key price point for Gold to defend should it continue its path downwards. Price action is KING There is no amount of 'waffle', predictions, projections or technical analysis that can change price action currently. It is price action that creates the results which can be used for technical analysis and not the other way around. No amount of charts, lines, more charts and more lines can alter the price action in the future. The price is not obliged to move on my assumption, my projection, my prediction, my opinion, my analysis and my charts. Price answers to no one. Therefore following the price action is a key element when trading not just Gold but any asset. For me there is still no potential 'Long' trade for Gold at this moment in time. If anything one may consider a short. It is not something I personally would short right now as there are better trending shorting opportunities than Gold at the moment.
  21. @gabnic, I was just about to reply to this and was half way through when I got a phone call and @Caseynotes beat me to it. https://www.ig.com/uk/weekend-trading
  22. @nit2wynit, My personal advice to you would be not to do anything until you have a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system. Spread Betting is about speculating on the price movement of an asset. That could be a share, commodity, cryptocurrency, etc. When you buy a share then you are in one form speculating on the share price moving in your favour. I do not quite understand why you could not place a long trade on a share and if the price moves up you sell using Spread Betting. Of course this is your personal choice and if you prefer to actually buy the shares then that is a personal choice for you. First of all it is important to understand why you think buying a low cost stock, waiting for a break and selling is the best strategy for you based on your personality and psychology. How will you identify which stock to buy? How will you identify it is at a low price? How do you know the share price will actually rise 10p? Are you buying and hoping? Have a think about what indicators or signals you could use that may help put the odds and probability in your favour of the price appreciating. It will not guarantee it but it could merely increase your chances? Have a think about what these could be?
  23. @nit2wynit, To try and assist you and get to the bottom of your problem one needs to understand how you are trading Gold. What indicators are you using to determine entering a trade? Are you a swing trader, trend follower, momentum trader, etc? What timeframe do you use? There are many questions I could ask but we can start here and see where this discussion leads.
  24. @nit2wynit, I agree with @Caseynotes in that start with the smallest bet size and if the trade moves in your favour and you are trading with a trend getting stronger then you can always add to your position on any dips. For now I would suggest stating at the lowest amount possible and building a position based on strength. In terms of picking an asset then it really depends on which market you have a better passion for, a better understanding in, a greater interest in, etc. There will be volatility in all different assets whether they are indices, FX, commodities, etc. I would avoid Cryptocurrencies unless you can stomach 'gut wrenching' volatility! Not all traders can. The 'elephant in the room' is stop losses and your risk tolerance and risk management strategy. If you are a day trader or short term trader then I can understand the need for tight stop losses to ensure you make lots of small profits. I get that. If you are a trend follower like me who holds positions for days, weeks and months to ride the longer term trend, a tight stop loss is no good. It needs to be more wider. Traders have to determine their time frame and set their stop losses accordingly. A lot of traders get into a pickle with this. They are trading the right asset at the right time but volatility is stopping them out. Having a wider stop loss is not all bad if you are trading on the right side of the trend and the trend is getting stronger in your favour. Once in profit then a trailing stop can be set ensuring you always exit with a profit. It is when the trade moves against you due to inefficient entry points that makes stop losses crucial. A trader can only get away with making lots of small losses if they make a few big profits which covers the losses as well. Otherwise all a trader has to show for is lots of small losses. This leads to a slow death! This is where a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system is crucial. There are still many traders that have neither of these things and these are the traders that seem to struggle when it comes to trading.
  25. @dmedin, I agree with @Caseynotes completely. I see time and time again traders using TA in overkill mode. Using indicators which is part of TA is telling us what has happened in the past. It cannot guarantee what will happen in the future. I use indicators but I also use a number of other factors when determining whether to enter a trade or not and when to enter a trade. This merely supports my decision making but using TA does not guarantee the trade will be profitable. Certain indicators may increase the odds and place the probability in my favour but that is all. I believe experience of the markets / assets you are trading, knowledge of the same, gut instincts, both fundamental and technical analysis along with many other things will help make an informed trading decision. Using TA does not guarantee the trade will profitable.
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