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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @nit2wynit, You may be interested in reading my 'Potential Long Gold Trade' thread. There may be snippets in there which could possibly be of interest to you.
  2. I am going to show the chart for Lean Hogs which it is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA on the 'daily'. Another key factor is that the moving average curves are all sloping upwards which is bullish as the chart below will show. So what is the reason for the spike. When technical analysis meets fundamental analysis and the reason for the price action is known and is a strong driver then the trends seem to also be strong. Now demand from China is increasing due to African swine fever which is contagious. Now it is reported that China is the largest consumer in the world for Pork. It produces and consumers over half of all the Pork in the world. It seems this increased demand from China is pushing up US prices. Now when one begins to understand why the price is bullish and trending upwards and can link the fundamental supply and demand picture with the technical narrative then one is presented with a strong trading opportunity. Now based on my previous threads and posts of identifying trend commodities I expect an IG Analyst to post something in relation to Lean Hogs shortly. They normally do so after I have identified the trending opportunity to the IG Community. LOL. 🤣😂
  3. Gold is looking bearish. It is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA. The $1256.35 level represents its 200 DMA on the 'daily' which will be a key price point for Gold to defend should it continue its path downwards. Price action is KING There is no amount of 'waffle', predictions, projections or technical analysis that can change price action currently. It is price action that creates the results which can be used for technical analysis and not the other way around. No amount of charts, lines, more charts and more lines can alter the price action in the future. The price is not obliged to move on my assumption, my projection, my prediction, my opinion, my analysis and my charts. Price answers to no one. Therefore following the price action is a key element when trading not just Gold but any asset. For me there is still no potential 'Long' trade for Gold at this moment in time. If anything one may consider a short. It is not something I personally would short right now as there are better trending shorting opportunities than Gold at the moment.
  4. @gabnic, I was just about to reply to this and was half way through when I got a phone call and @Caseynotes beat me to it. https://www.ig.com/uk/weekend-trading
  5. @nit2wynit, My personal advice to you would be not to do anything until you have a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system. Spread Betting is about speculating on the price movement of an asset. That could be a share, commodity, cryptocurrency, etc. When you buy a share then you are in one form speculating on the share price moving in your favour. I do not quite understand why you could not place a long trade on a share and if the price moves up you sell using Spread Betting. Of course this is your personal choice and if you prefer to actually buy the shares then that is a personal choice for you. First of all it is important to understand why you think buying a low cost stock, waiting for a break and selling is the best strategy for you based on your personality and psychology. How will you identify which stock to buy? How will you identify it is at a low price? How do you know the share price will actually rise 10p? Are you buying and hoping? Have a think about what indicators or signals you could use that may help put the odds and probability in your favour of the price appreciating. It will not guarantee it but it could merely increase your chances? Have a think about what these could be?
  6. @nit2wynit, To try and assist you and get to the bottom of your problem one needs to understand how you are trading Gold. What indicators are you using to determine entering a trade? Are you a swing trader, trend follower, momentum trader, etc? What timeframe do you use? There are many questions I could ask but we can start here and see where this discussion leads.
  7. @nit2wynit, I agree with @Caseynotes in that start with the smallest bet size and if the trade moves in your favour and you are trading with a trend getting stronger then you can always add to your position on any dips. For now I would suggest stating at the lowest amount possible and building a position based on strength. In terms of picking an asset then it really depends on which market you have a better passion for, a better understanding in, a greater interest in, etc. There will be volatility in all different assets whether they are indices, FX, commodities, etc. I would avoid Cryptocurrencies unless you can stomach 'gut wrenching' volatility! Not all traders can. The 'elephant in the room' is stop losses and your risk tolerance and risk management strategy. If you are a day trader or short term trader then I can understand the need for tight stop losses to ensure you make lots of small profits. I get that. If you are a trend follower like me who holds positions for days, weeks and months to ride the longer term trend, a tight stop loss is no good. It needs to be more wider. Traders have to determine their time frame and set their stop losses accordingly. A lot of traders get into a pickle with this. They are trading the right asset at the right time but volatility is stopping them out. Having a wider stop loss is not all bad if you are trading on the right side of the trend and the trend is getting stronger in your favour. Once in profit then a trailing stop can be set ensuring you always exit with a profit. It is when the trade moves against you due to inefficient entry points that makes stop losses crucial. A trader can only get away with making lots of small losses if they make a few big profits which covers the losses as well. Otherwise all a trader has to show for is lots of small losses. This leads to a slow death! This is where a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system is crucial. There are still many traders that have neither of these things and these are the traders that seem to struggle when it comes to trading.
  8. @dmedin, I agree with @Caseynotes completely. I see time and time again traders using TA in overkill mode. Using indicators which is part of TA is telling us what has happened in the past. It cannot guarantee what will happen in the future. I use indicators but I also use a number of other factors when determining whether to enter a trade or not and when to enter a trade. This merely supports my decision making but using TA does not guarantee the trade will be profitable. Certain indicators may increase the odds and place the probability in my favour but that is all. I believe experience of the markets / assets you are trading, knowledge of the same, gut instincts, both fundamental and technical analysis along with many other things will help make an informed trading decision. Using TA does not guarantee the trade will profitable.
  9. Bitcoin Beats the Dow, Outperforming Every Single Stock, in 2019 https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-beats-the-dow-outperforming-every-single-stock-in-2019
  10. Guest Haven, No problem. Bitcoin is trying very hard to hold on to the $5000 level which it is doing well in defending. This correction was expected as the Cryptos had gone up too much too fast and was unsustainable even for a Cryptocurrency.
  11. I think the key price levels are the 52 week highs for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq. If these can be breached then it will be extremely positive for these indices. If they cannot then there remains the potential of a large correction. For now one must not fight the price action or even try and trade against the trend. There are no confirmations of a trend reversal and no indicators suggesting that a short trade is on for any of these three indices right now. This could change with the Dow leading the way downwards but that trend confirmation signal is not there yet.
  12. I love IG's timing. Exceptional! https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/commodities-news/gold-price-gains-ground--but-silver-upside-greater-as-ecb-delays-190411 Gold is down 1.35% and Silver is down 2% at the time of writing. Both look bearish since around the middle of February 2019. Now an uptrend in Gold may be around the corner but for now there is no Potential 'Long' Gold Trade based on current price action. I think with UK Brexit being delayed combined with the US Dollar has it has acted as a negative driver for Gold prices.
  13. If Bitcoin was to experience any Fibonacci Retracement of around 38.2% then it could go as low as around $4829.73. If it were to experience a 50% retracement then of course even lower. I want to follow the price action to see if Bitcoin is going to behave under such 'technical rules' or simply play by its own rules and create new 'technical rules' along the way.
  14. Those who are interested in investment in Frontier Markets may find the information below useful. MSCI FRONTIER MARKETS INDEX (USD)
  15. A lot of tighter stop losses will be triggered on this current drop in Cryptocurrencies available on IG's UK platform. They are all well in the red this morning at 5:30 am. Also Fibonacci retracements may come into play.
  16. There are reports that Facebook are looking for a whopping $1bn in funding for its Cryptocurrency. Facebook is Seeking $1 Billion in Funding for Its Cryptocurrency: Nathaniel Popper https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/04/facebook-is-seeking-1-billion-in-funding-for-its-cryptocurrency-nathaniel-popper/ Cryptocurrencies have carved their own niche and asset class. It seems they are getting stronger not weaker. Yes the junk has evaporated during the last 12 months of price declines and selling pressure. This was necessary and healthy for the asset class to move forward. My personal opinion is that Cryptocurrencies as an asset class is here to stay for the foreseeable future. It is not going anywhere. The participants within the asset class may change here and there. A tiny or small exposure during the early stages could be considered into investment portfolios before the herd arrives in five to ten years time. By then some really exciting returns will have been made. If you look back over the past ten years then some exceptional returns have already been made which would just not have been possible on other asset classes.
  17. I wanted to share this report released by the EU Blockchain Observatory: Tokenization of physical assets and the impact of IoT and AI https://www.eublockchainforum.eu/sites/default/files/research-paper/convergence_of_blockchain_ai_and_iot_academic_2.pdf?width=1024&height=800&iframe=true
  18. The point I made on the previous (above) post is nicely highlighted by today's Bitcoin price action. An indicator is just that, an indicator. It merely indicates something. It merely points out or suggests something. It is not a given. Bitcoin has demonstrated 'Higher Lows' and 'Higher Highs'. It reminds me of Gold's price action after August 2018 and there are a few similarities. Bitcoin is looking strong and bullish today. Volume is clearly supporting the price behaviour and it seems there may well be further upside regardless of the RSI and the indication of Bitcoin being overbought. Being overbought is actually a positive. When an asset makes new highs or new 52 weeks highs and then continues making new highs after this, it usually smashes overbought levels time and time again. The current Bitcoin price behaviour highlights nicely how it can surprise and wrong foot traders who try to be clever using technical analysis. Getting in as early as possible on Cryptocurrencies once a trend is identified and then either merely holding or adding to the position as the price increases (on the dips) is a potential way to trade. The exit should only occur when there is a clear trend reversal, otherwise holding the position is the most wisest thing to do. Otherwise, the risk is not being in a trade when some of the most positive and bullish price action occurs meaning missing some of the biggest gains due to being out of the trade. A lot of the people talk about the daily interest charges. Yes they are what they are but in a strong and bullish trend the price performance and level of profits based on leverage should really make the charges effectively small and meaningless. That is if you are on the right side of the trend and trade!
  19. Cryptocurrencies can move at any point with no specific or logical reason. It can catch a lot of traders on the wrong foot which is why a lot of them miss the big returns or the best 10 days as Tom Lee puts it. Technical indicators are telling you what has happened in the past. It does not tell you what is going to happen in the future. Cryptocurrencies are a volatile, unpredictable and high risk asset class. It can also provide double digit returns in a day and if one adds leverage to the mix then there are significant gains to be had. On the flip side if one is not careful then there are extremely large losses to be incurred too. This is where risk management is key. For example, some of the indicators that appear on Bitcoin the whole world knows about. So it is not a secret. If following indicators was all it took to be a profitable trader, trading and making lots of profits would be easy but it is not. One of the reasons is because those large players (individuals and organisations) that can move the Bitcoin price know all about these indicators and how traders are going make trading decisions based on such indicators. I posted yesterday that the RSI is high for Bitcoin which suggests overbought territory. Now if everyone followed such indicators who can influence and move the Bitcoin price then one would expect lots of selling and the price declining. This morning (7:00 am UK time) all the Cryptocurrencies on IG's platform are blue. I reported yesterday that the RSI for Bitcoin was 87 but what is stopping it becoming 88, 89 or 90? There are no hard and fast rules when trading Bitcoin or any of the other Cryptocurrencies. This is what makes it so hard and dangerous trading it and why in my opinion it is one of the riskiest asset classes to trade.
  20. Here is another fund related to Frontier Markets that can be added to the mix. http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F00000PFQS Some others are: Magna New Frontiers Stewart Investors Frontier Markets
  21. @Vern, Obviously a bank transfer could take 2-3 working days.
  22. @Vern, Is you use a bank card such as a debit card then pretty much instantly.
  23. @Haven, Yes, I do take notice of the RSI as that is why I state in my last paragraph that Bitcoin is at overbought levels. The RSI looks at the speed and change of the price action. It helps to measure the sentiment on a scale of 0 to 100. So for example, when the RSI is above 70 then it is deemed to be overbought and when it is below 30 then it is deemed to oversold. Now the current Bitcoin price action shows that the daily RSI is around 87 which to me suggests Bitcoin is extremely overbought. As I state in my last paragraph of the previous post that this presents a risk going forwards. Bitcoin may have bottomed (though I do not know that it has) so when starting on a bull run and uptrend one expects it to be in overbought territory as that is what one expects when breaking out and trending strongly on an upward trajectory. This RSI signal does not surprise me and was expected. What happens next will be important. Will it continue trending upwards and increasing the RSI to higher overbought levels or will there be a big sell off?
  24. So far Bitcoin seems to be holding up rather well above $5000 level. It could still go down below this but for now it is behaving nicely. Those of you who are familiar with me will appreciate that I tend to mainly use the 'daily' chart. I will zoom in and out as necessary and when looking to enter a trade I will go down to the hourly or even shorter. Now it is reported that Bitcoin's 'Super Guppy' indicator has turned green for the first time since around January 2018. This to me indicates a bullish move with an upward bias on the 'daily'. For those of you who are not aware of the 'Super Guppy', it is a combination of exponential moving averages. This is designed to signal when the price action basically switches from a bearish outlook to a more bullish outlook. The reverse can be applied too. Now the 'Super Guppy' has flipped green on the 'daily' for the first time since January 2018. I have attached this below which I have obtained from CoinDesk. The 'Super Guppy' was in the red for more than a year so a flip to the green is a very welcome move to the bulls and this should see further capital being injected into Bitcoin driving the price further higher in my personal opinion. For me I would like to see Bitcoin above the $6500 level to ensure this does not have another large move downwards and potentially look to make another new low. This downside risk is still present for me. Any bad news or horror stories in the online media around the world can be enough to cause mayhem and havoc and see Bitcoin decline 50% from here. This is simply the nature of the beast. The other risk is that Bitcoin is at overbought levels and this also presents a risk. For now one must enjoy the current price behaviour of Bitcoin and accumulate on any drops as it ventures upwards - Pyramiding Upwards.
  25. @JamesIG, I would be interested in seeing what the performance returns are like when conducting a 'compare and contrast' exercise in relation to all Frontier Market investment funds, trusts, ETF's, etc. I do not know whether this could be included in the next Frontier Market analysis piece that any IG Analyst posts going forwards?
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