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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. WSJ: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Outperformed Everything in H1 2019 https://cointelegraph.com/news/wsj-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-outperformed-everything-in-h1-2019
  2. Vela is now starting to release positive news flow. For me this needs to equate to a rising share price. If a share does not move when positive news is being released then it is a red flag for me. Vela suffers from massive dilution which is going to impact share price appreciation. It is going to take some very heavy buying over a sustained period for the share price to motor but if it does then this could be an excellent value investment at current price levels. Below is the latest RNS Vela released to the market this morning: Vela Technologies Update re. WeShop Limited https://www.investegate.co.uk/vela-technologies--vela-/rns/update-re--weshop-limited/201907091032179384E/ Based on the value for Vela's stake in this alone at current prices the market cap / valuation seems very low. Of course the flip side is that it may be low for a reason. I have heard though yet to be confirmed by Vela that another one of the companies it has invested in (Rosslyn) has got two nice contracts. This should be filtered through to the media shortly.
  3. @Henniet, 👍😁 At times it is nice to have a sense of humour. Your question inferred you were looking at earning interest on your $10,000 so I merely made one suggestion. Of course there are many ways in which you could earn interest on $10,000. I appreciate you are asking specifically why IG does not pay interest on $10,000 in your account. I offered an answer that it is not a bank! I could not resist but appreciate my humorous response may not be for everyone so I shall try and tone down on my humour in future. On a serious note I do not know the specific or exact reason why IG do not offer you interest but you may wish to ask IG directly as even if someone provides you with an answer, how will you verify that it is actually 100% correct?
  4. Below is the latest RNS released this yesterday morning. KR1 plc Buyback of Deferred Shares https://www.investegate.co.uk/kr1-plc--kr1-/prn/buyback-of-deferred-shares/20190708152633P0081/
  5. Carrying on from my previous post yesterday it seems a breakout is materialising. Looking at the 'daily' timeframe I think the possible clue is that Bitcoin may head towards around the $17k level with a consolidation / pause for breath before going for $20k and above making new highs. It first has to surpass $14k and $15k but if it can then I think there will be very strong momentum and support for Bitcoin to make new highs.
  6. Bitcoin hit $12801.30 and is currently trading at $12735 so is now heading for $13k. It also seems like a breakout is materialising should this price action continue. Looking at the 'daily' timeframe it seems $17k will be the first target before making new highs of over $20k.
  7. @Excel09, It is 10:30 pm UK time and Bitcoin is trading at around $12240 levels. There were some who have a negative bias towards Bitcoin who were inferring / suggesting $8k and maybe even $6k but based on nothing but personal negative emotions. Never fight a strong bullish trend. It can last a lot longer than you think. Upward trends can last longer than downward trends which tend to be quicker and sharper than upward trends. Yes there will be lots of 20% or even 30% corrections along the way which will feel like a trend reversal but may not necessarily be so. Once one understands how Bitcoin's price behaves in a bull market then one can appreciate the trading opportunities it presents. Do not fight the tape!
  8. @Excel09, I personally invest in this derivative and have done so for a few years now. However, it is not for me to say whether anyone should invest or not. I am merely sharing a product in which I myself have invested my own capital. There are risks with Exchange Traded Notes (ETN's) and it is for you all to conduct your own due diligence and ensure the products fits with your risk profile. For me personally it has been a great product and has similarities with ETF's.
  9. I was just reading an article which states that famous investor - Mark Mobius - would consider buying Bitcoin if it continued its getting stronger. This is a great endorsement from a great investor. Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range over the past few days and so there is the potential of a breakout to the upside as we all know Bitcoin cannot stay quiet for too long when it is in a bullish mood. Also in the past when Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range it tends to behave rather flamboyantly shortly after. The issue here is in which direction Bitcoin could breakout. There are valid arguments for both breaking out upwards and breaking out downwards. Based on current trend strength and momentum I would slightly favour a move upwards and the odds and probability will be in favour of a move upwards. However, this does not mean it cannot go down so one needs to look at Bitcoin's price behaviour closely to see if there are any clues which could give an indication on its next directional move.
  10. I think one must be looking at any potential breakout from the current trading range / consolidation period to see if a new upward trend emerges. Following the price action will be key.
  11. Bitcoin seems to be rallying at the moment and the other altcoins seem to be following suit. Bitcoin at $11.8k. Trying to go for $12k.
  12. No problems (Guest Phil). I mean XBT Provider One are way ahead of the game in terms of these types of derivatives. A couple of years back they were attracting US citizens to invest in them as there was no similar product in the US. The US have the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Also Scandinavia is more open to Cryptocurrencies and countries like Sweden have embraced them more hence these products being domiciled in Sweden.
  13. Bitcoin is still trading around the $11.5k level after the weekend so it is showing some robustness. It has still not crashed downwards to $8k or even $6k like some have suggested. It really has not gone below the $10k critical level for any significant period and where it has, it is quickly bounced back above it. So what does this mean? To me it means a steady period of consolidation which is very healthy for Bitcoin after its parabolic rise. This is not a bad thing at all. Corrections are inevitable. I personally think it will take another piece of positive news to push Bitcoin higher and it will need a strong catalyst. Bitcoin will need to be news driven for any the speculative capital and herd to come in with FOMO taking effect for it to hit $20k levels. All I would say is just be weary of the online media, friends / relatives with very little knowledge or understanding as they can influence your thinking and have an impact on your emotions when it comes to Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency asset class. This in turn can have an impact on whether you trade the price action for Bitcoin or not.
  14. I am just going to share some of the latest news in relation to XBT Provider One products. They are Swedish domiciled so I am hoping they will not be included in the Crypto derivatives ban as they are not physically based in the UK though you are using a UK broker to invest in them. However, I cannot say 100% at this stage as I simply do not know what the outcome will be. XBT PROVIDER CHANGES NAME AND SYMBOL OF LITECOIN AND XRP TRACKING EXCHANGE TRADED PRODUCTS https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/07/02/1877055/0/en/XBT-PROVIDER-CHANGES-NAME-AND-SYMBOL-OF-LITECOIN-AND-XRP-TRACKING-EXCHANGE-TRADED-PRODUCTS.html
  15. I think one must be careful that the time period of any 'Forward Testing' is significant enough to make a real impact on your trading strategy. I remember when I was looking at trading Natural Gas many years ago, I forward tested for a couple of months and it simply was not enough. At the time I paid the price as my trading system clearly had flaws and I lost a lot of money trading Natural Gas. The volatility killed my account as my stop losses were far too tight. I have heard someone on the IG Community suggest or infer not to use stop losses. I would urge that person to try trading Natural Gas without stop losses. It would be extremely dangerous based on my personal experience. I had stop losses and still ended up losing money. Now I am talking about around 15 years ago. Some people may think that your trading system must include super complex algorithm. Your trading system can be as simple as you want it to be but I still think you need to forward test it. Having a more complex trading system does not necessarily mean you will have more / higher profits at the end of each year. However, if you have conducted 'forward testing' for a reasonable amount of time then it could help you to minimise your losses. Losses will still be incurred and no amount of forward testing can stop or completely eliminate that but it could help with damage limitation should you effectively use the data / results obtained from the forward testing and apply it to your trading strategy / trading system.
  16. @Excel09, There appears to be some really nice consolidation going on with Bitcoin at $11k price area. There were times when Litecoin would lead the price assault upwards but I think Bitcoin has taken over this mantle and will lead the way going forwards.
  17. @Excel09, To answer your question from another thread, I use the online broker Hargreaves Lansdown.
  18. @Excel09, I have a thread called XBT Provider One Bitcoin and Ether or something like that. Have a look at that thread of mine. It should answer all your questions. If you still have questions after looking at it then let me know.
  19. Trend Following can be applied to Cryptocurrencies just like it can for Commodities. They are actually more similar than one would believe. Bitcoin in my opinion can be used to apply trend following principles in the way you trade it. Some of the things one must consider if they are thinking of doing so are: Do not fight the price action of Bitcoin so in in other words do not fight the tape as Jesse Livermore would put it. Keep losses to a minimum and maximise profits by not selling to early (Let your winners run and cut losses early) Use leverage to maximise profits (Apply sound risk management though) Ignore 'Market Noise' and all the online media channels What I find with applying Trend Following principles is that it allows me to be less exact with my entry and exit points. No one has a crystal ball and very few if hardly any on the IG Community will have the ability to physically trade the optimum price points in terms of entry and exit. Trend Following eliminates this issue for me. I really am not bothered about finding the perfect entry points. Of course I will try and identify the best entry and exit points I can but it is not a necessity for me personally. Now what causes a trend to manifest itself in Bitcoin? Based on my personal experience things such as 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO), greed, news, fundamentals, Risk On / Risk Off market environments, etc. I personally would not want to trade against the trend on Bitcoin. It would decimate your trading capital as it experiences extreme volatility. Your stop loss and risk management system would be tested to the limit and it would drive you crazy.
  20. A lot of traders will discuss the importance of 'back testing' their trading systems but very few on the IG Community discuss 'forward testing' their trading systems which in my opinion is just as if not more important. Now I shall try and keep things as simple as possible with the IG audience in mind. So first of all what is 'forward testing'. It is a way of measuring and testing your trading system in live market conditions or as close as. Some may use 'demo accounts' to do this and others may actually use live accounts but trade with the smallest capital possible and smallest trade sizes to really assess the trading performance of their trading system in a 'live market environment'. Now how many years you go back in your 'back testing' and how many years you go forward in your 'forward testing' is a decision that the individual trader has to make. Many traders will simply not forward test and will never do so. They will not have this decision to make. For those who do decide to really fine tune and improve their trading system then I think this is a necessary decision to make. Some of the traders I know will forward test one year for every three years of back testing they conduct. So six years of back testing would require two years of forward testing before that specific trading system goes live. Now this is just one example and it is not not necessarily the right example. It will be all to do with the asset in question, the trading system in question and the market conditions. I know one trader who has been backtesting and forward testing their trading system for the past few years and still has not gone live. Now this is overkill for me as in this period the trader is missing out on some of the strongest trending opportunities to profit from. So there needs to be a sensible and reasonable balance. Back testing is all about historical data. Forward testing is all about live (real time) data. I have known traders to perform forward testing by just keeping data on a spreadsheet of how a trade would have performed in current real time market conditions without actually using any real money. I personally do not like that method. I personally want to use real money and actually physically trade albeit the smallest amounts possible to get as close to real life trading performance to really understand the performance, any flaws or issues with my trading system.
  21. The general theory on Trend Following is that you do not need to conduct any fundamental analysis. You simple trade based on price action. I must admit I have my own trading plan which requires me to conduct some fundamental analysis. I want to trade the strongest trending assets whatever they are. I believe that by conducting fundamental analysis on the strongest trending assets it can help me to select those which also are supported by the strongest narratives. So I find conducting fundamental analysis useful in my journey to get from trend identification to trend / trade selection. Now this tends to go against the grain and theory written about in relation to Trend Following. However, I want to create a trading environment and trading strategy which suits my personality, needs and goals. I find this approach very helpful and useful when trading the strongest trending commodities. If there is a strong narrative and reason why the price action is behaving the way it is then it really helps me in my decision making.
  22. I just read this fascinating article and have to applaud BrewDog for the proactive vision. By accepting ten different Cryptocurrencies now for equity is genius. If these Cryptocurrencies go up in value then BrewDog will benefit greatly. One must ask the question why BrewDog who are one of the biggest if not the biggest craft beer company do this? If Cryptocurrencies were garbage and the asset class was nonsense then why would a company do this? The answer is that they believe this asset class is the future and is going to get bigger and bigger. BrewDog Now Lets You Buy Company Shares Paying With 10 Cryptocurrencies https://cointelegraph.com/news/brewdog-now-lets-you-buy-company-shares-paying-with-10-cryptocurrencies
  23. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $11.5k. So it seems it is trying to consolidate at over $11k rather than my personal critical limit of $10k though I think the range will be around $10k to $12k based on recent price action. This bodes well for Bitcoin. It also highlights how one must ignore 'market noise' which includes those who have a negative bias on Bitcoin on the IG Community. I get it that certain people are sceptical of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies in general. I also accept that 90% of Crypto's are junk. I really do believe this. I also appreciate that there will be many who do not have the technical understanding and appreciation of digital currencies and Blockchain and others whose knowledge derives from what they read or are told by the media. The above can influence traders on IG. One trader was predicting Bitcoin hitting $8k. It is no where near. This was without very little evidence, data, information or even personal thoughts as to why it would hit $8k. Another mentioned a rumour that Bitcoin was going to hit $6k. This is in my view an example of where a traders personal negative bias on this asset class comes out. It is sort of like an unconscious bias. My view is that Bitcoin's current price behaviour is based on current sentiment and that current sentiment is as strong and positive as it has ever been. I appreciate Bitcoin is not perfect. It has its flaws but nevertheless in this digital revolution it will play some role and more importantly the technology behind it, Blockchain, will play a very important role.
  24. @Foxy, First of all I am not disrespecting anyone. Secondly @aquarius has not explained his system. I was discussing with Aquarius and it was a discussion between the two of us. Have I ever asked you or Aquarius to following trend following in this specific thread? No. Where as you have articulated your trading thoughts Aquarius had not. This is the point I was making. You are reading something else into it so I suggest you look at this thread from start to finish and just have a think before jumping the gun or making assumptions. I am not suggesting Trend Following is the best. It is just my trading strategy which I adopt. There are many ways to skin a cat. There are many different trading styles and methodologies that one can adopt. I am not specifically referring to Aquarius here but I have come across several on the IG Community who just have no trading system at all and really are just betting and gambling. I suggest you read this thread and then your unprofessional comments towards me. If you do not agree with me that is fine. We can all disagree professionally and politely. Just like I can be wrong many times the same applies to you. Just like my trading system will deliver losses, no doubt yours will too. I have merely offered my thoughts from a trend following perspective. You can offer a differing view from your trading perspective. What you cannot say is that I cannot share my trading thoughts from a trend following perspective but you can offer your trading thoughts from your trading perspective.
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