Jump to content


Community Member
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. , Thanks for sharing this information so quickly.
  2. Looking at the 30 minute chart there seems to be a bullish trend line forming with support around the $720.00 mark. For me if Ether breaks the $800.00 mark then it will have a real go at $1000.00. This is when the fun will start as I think Bitcoin will go for the $10,000.00 mark. If and when these events occur you will see a mixture of institutional money beginning to flow in as well as the serious dumb money that is on the sidelines waiting to enter. At the moment Bitcoin and Ether are the two less riskier plays within the cryptocurrency market with the largest market caps and first mover advantages. With this in mind they still present extremely high risk trades.
  3. , I used to actively trade commodities back in 2006 - 2013 period using Exchange Traded Notes (ETN's) by ETF Securities. They offered leverage both to the long and short side with some products having x2, x3 and some specific with I think x5 leverage. As trading commodities can be high risk I used these products to help manage my risk. I could not lose more than my capital as there was no margin call to worry about. Also I could using hedging strategies such as going long corn and short wheat or long oil and short natural gas, etc. I agree my experience tells me a similar thing that there are always one or two commodities a year that give excellent returns on the long side. However, there are several that give even better returns on the short side. I don't know if you short commodities but have a look at those commodities that have gone down over the past 12 months and you will see from the charts some excellent opportunities to profit from prices going down. Have a look at platinum on the daily chart and you will see the opportunity to short from the start of the year. The same with Zinc, Lead and Soybean Oil. Sugar in my opinion has been an excellent shorting opportunity. One should not wait to go long on Sugar as an effective trade would have been to short it over the past 12 months. This is maximising your capital and profits allocated to trading commodities. When the trend reverses in Sugar then you can always go long Sugar then. This way you are utilising your capital to the maximum efficiency.
  4. May well do. The big boys like Goldman would not enter this arena without some sort of edge. My view is that cryptocurrency is being accepted as an asset class. I think regulation in different jurisdictions will follow. At the stage I do not know which cryptocurrencies will succeed or fail but they are the future and are not going anywhere.
  5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-02/goldman-is-said-to-add-crypto-contracts-without-trading-bitcoins
  6. , I agree with you that Gold is susceptible to sudden moves in response to geopolitical events. Does the US, UK and France attack in Syria count? Does Trump and North Korea rhetoric count? Do the tensions between UK and Russia count? Do the Middle East tensions count? I think historically Gold has been susceptible to sudden moves in response to geopolitical events but there is a new asset in town which is where the capital is flowing in such times. The Big B. I am not suggesting this will last but this is the current trend. There is only space to the upside if capital flows to Gold. These institutions and governments have to feel that in such times of difficulty there is no other asset which the capital can flow to which is better than Gold. Lets be honest it is large institutions and governments that move the price of Gold. I can only see upside of around 1000 points to $1400 in the medium term. I suppose a short term play would be to go long Gold for it to hit $1350 levels. Right now it is in a trading range between $1300 - £1350. Then you short it to just below $1320 levels. Rinse and Repeat until it breaks this trading range!
  7. Cocoa New York hit 2909.20. Cocoa London hit 1939.90. Cocoa is one of the best performing commodities of 2018. From a fundamental perspective there are issues in Ivory Coast which is one of the largest Cocoa producing areas. There is an increase in demand thus leading to a supply and demand scenario. It is reported that heavy rainfall could damage the April to September crop in Ivory Coast. From my experience this kind of bullish price action in commodities normally stems from either some harsh / adverse weather conditions or the media and expert commodity analyst making bold and bullish predictions / assumptions. I think Cocoa is getting both. These trends can last longer than one anticipates. However, always have one eye on a possible shorting opportunity should it arise. One must be ready as in Cocoa the price tends to drop over a short period of time where as the price tends to increase over a longer period of time. Therefore one can profit from a shorting opportunity in a short timescale. However, in my opinion right now at the time of writing it is not the time to short as one must not go against the trend.
  8. Soybean Meal has gone back above $40,000. Can it surpass the $42,000 + figure hit back in 2016? If it does then this may get very interesting.
  9. https://cointelegraph.com/news/consulting-firm-predicts-ethereum-could-reach-2500-by-the-end-of-2018
  10. https://www.ccn.com/frances-cryptocurrency-tax-more-than-halved-to-19/
  11. New highs being made by Lumber. It hit $56,200.60 today. When new highs and higher highs are being made then this is simply a trend followers dream. I accept for those new to trend following that buying or adding to your existing position is difficult when the price is trending so strongly upwards as one is conditioned to buy when the price goes down. This can still be done using oscillators in a strong trending move like Lumber when one is unsure when and how to enter. One must never fight the trend or simply trade against it. That is extremely dangerous and on the balance of probability you are likely to lose in those situations. From a fundamental perspective, Canada's rail crunch is adding to the soaring cost of Lumber. Add Trump's tariffs and duties along with technical strength then this is a trend that comes once in a generation. Add leverage to this cocktail and the mix is quite simply exhilarating.
  12. Soybean is up around 1000 points at time of writing. It hit $39761.20 today.
  13. , I don't know about the exact percentage in relation to success rates for day traders but that figure would not surprise me. The day traders that make money are the traders working for the big world class institutions. Those who have the best algorithmic traders who have the fastest nano second transaction times (black box) have a real competitive edge are are the real profit makers. They are in and out within a fraction of a nano second are the day traders with the best possible chance of making the real money. There has been research carried out on this specific topic and if one researches hard enough then they may well find it.
  14. , A very good question which is the crux of my point that I made in my previous post. I am unsure about a scalable and useful use case for Bitcoin Gold which my previous point alludes to. Bitcoin Gold was a hard fork from the original Bitcoin (open source). This was in relation to the mining process. The Bitcoin Gold developers backed a new algorithm which did not favour major mining operations. One of the draws could be that it is a free open source project built by developers. To answer your question from what I have read then Bitcoin Gold aims to integrate open source libraries and assist in academic and university collaboration. There is a plan to integrate a debit card program. Right now there are companies looking to back cryptocurrencies with real assets like gold. For example, Lionsgold, an AIM listed company has launched Goldbloc which is backing crypto with real gold. Other companies are also doing this and have got there well before Lionsgold. My understanding is that Bitcoin Gold is specifically targeting the education market, research and scholarship area. I must admit how it will do this is a bit unclear to me. Personally, I think Ether will take a share of this market and if Bitcoin Gold is serious then it will find itself competing with Ether in this area and the use of 'smart contacts'. Bitcoin Gold could be used for voting, etc. Voting could be scalable and a useful use case but this is just me thinking out aloud. The processing time for both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Gold are similar. Also the 21 million circulation is also very similar. However could Bitcoin Gold be used as a digital security system against Bitcoin and offer a security protection? I don't know but with replay protection that protects from accidents and threats then Bitcoin Gold could go down the security path. Again how likely is this? The only thing I can see is that rather than Bitcoin becoming the digital store of value, it is Bitcoin Gold that becomes the digital gold. However, I think these forks could have a dilutive effect if there is no clear scalable use cases for the resulting new digital asset that is created after the fork. One could ask the same question you have asked about Bitcoin Cash!
  15. I recall a billionaire investor (can't remember name) who suggested that Bitcoin will hit a trillion dollar market cap. When he was drilled down he clarified that he did not mean Bitcoin by itself but Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold combined would hit a trillion dollar market cap within the next few years. I think the narrative needs to be made clearer on Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Cash plus Bitcoin itself. Going forwards if one wanted to have a hedge or defensive position then they could allocate capital into Bitcoin Gold. Maybe they could use Bitcoin Cash to pay for goods and services such as a cup of coffee or a taxi due to faster transaction times. Both could be backed / supported by Bitcoin itself. This is just me 'thinking out aloud' but the narrative is not clear enough for me yet. Once the person on the street 'Joe Bloggs' understands the advantages and uses for Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin itself is when things will really start to get interesting. Why would someone buy Bitcoin Cash ahead of Bitcoin? Why would someone choose Bitcoin Gold over Bitcoin Cash? Once the 'background story' is set and the narrative is clear then we will really begin to see the potential trillion dollar combined market cap. Until then capital will move between alt coins like Ripple, Litecoin, etc. I separate Ether as I think it operates in a different market within the same universe in terms of 'smart contracts'.
  16. $55,000 has been hit as I predicted. This is a perfect example of how long a strong trend which is extremely bullish can last. Trends can last a lot longer than what most investors and traders think.
  17. , No I do not work for IG. I played a part in the creation of the Cryptocurrency and Blockchain section within the IG Community Discussion Forum. It used to be mixed within the FX section which I did not feel was appropriate. I put my suggestions to James (IG Community Manager) and he arranged for this new section to be created. I spread bet crypto's using IG's platform (profits are free from CGT), invest in crypto's using XBT's trackers. I also invest in blockchain related companies. I do a lot of reading and research within the crypto and blockchain space and feel that the IG Community allows me the platform to share my knowledge and experience with those who may be interested.
  18. , I take it you are referring to the Wyckoff Trading System? One assumes you are using some sort of algorithm? If you use it effectively to analyse patterns in waves and volume to help you identify any supply and demand imbalances. Having an 'edge' is extremely important if one wants to be profitable not only in the short term but in the long term too and continue not only to survive trading in the markets but be consistently profitable. This may help you obtain an 'edge' if used correctly and effectively. At the time of writing 8:00 pm Bitcoin is down around 4% where as other cryptos are down 10%, 12% and 16% showing that when there are sharp corrections in the crypto market then Bitcoin offers better resistance to the downside on such corrections. This assumption obviously needs to be tested going forwards but I am putting the theory out there for anyone to test should they wish to do so.
  19. At the time of writing - 07:12 am - Bitcoin is showing strong defensive qualities and true resilience compared to other cryptocurrencies which are demonstrating sharp corrections which I am sure are healthy and needed before the next leg up. Bitcoin seems to be behaving like gold within the cryptocurrency universe. It is such a volatile and crazy market at the moment that by the time some read this post, Bitcoin, may have even declined more than other cryptos. :smileylol:
  20. https://hacked.com/bitcoin-and-gold-are-trading-inversely-with-one-another/
  21. Closing only. Market unable to open. What a surprise!
  22. I thought I would mention the trend in Cocoa - New York. I wanted to wait to see if anyone else brought this to the attention of the IG community but I could not wait any longer. Trends can materialise in commodities when one least expects. The markets premium over London reached its highest since 1977. Reports indicate that it relates to system fund buying and those trading the arbitrage covering their short positions in the US market and liquidating longs in London. From a fundamental perspective the worlds surplus is disappearing. From a technical perspective the trend is strong from the start of 2018 onwards. These trends can last longer than what one thinks.
  23. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/23/early-tech-investor-says-bitcoin-will-be-bigger-than-the-internet.html