Jump to content

TrendFollower

Community Member
  • Content Count

    2,708
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    52

Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @elle, May I ask why you have not traded oil, short? (Apologies if you have) but you seem to post a lot of charts and seem in tune with the price behaviour so would expect someone on the IG Community to have shorted oil and profited handsomely from such a trade. I am just curious and please do not feel that I am picking on you or anything like that. I am just curious as there is very little discussion on anyone placing a short trade on Brent or US Crude and profiting from such a trade. I just wonder how effective certain technical analysis strategies are in relation to profit maximisation when certain rules and strategies do not allow you to trade such a nice short trade?
  2. @Caseynotes, really? Surely that cannot be right. I was not aware of that but it makes it even more difficult for someone using MT4 for crypto trading.
  3. @Mercury, You are totally misunderstanding my post. Based on the 'lots of analysis' you are posting I was making an assumption that you were most probably a full time trader. However, I did not want to merely make such an assumption hence why I thought I would just ask. That is all. I wanted to get a better understanding of whom I was communicating with on IG Community. That is all and there really is nothing more to it. You really are a pure out and out analyser as you have even carried out technical analysis on my post! 😂 The only thing is that you misunderstood my 'post action' and reacted to a 'trend' that was not there. 🤣 I have never stated I do not like anything you have posted. Again you are totally misreading my post. I really do hope your charts and analysis is not anything like how you have interpreted my post which you have responded to. Why on earth would you even come to the conclusion that I may not even like your posts and suggest I do not read them? If that were the case I would not even bother viewing or responding to your posts. I take the view that we can all learn something from one another and even if I learn one small thing from you then it is worth communicating with you within the IG Community. In fact you have made several points that I have agreed with and have also made several points that has made me think. I accept you have also made points that I simply do not agree with and that is fine. I was just wondering that if there was a full time professional trader who traded similar asset classes to you then what would they do differently? Would they conduct the same level of technical analysis, less or possibly even more? That is all, there is nothing more to it. You have read far too much into my post. The only reason why I have asked you is that you post a lot of charts with a lot of lines, comments and numbers and you seem to post more of these charts than anyone else on the IG Community hence why I thought asking and discussing with you would be most prudent. The plus point on your charts is that you do comment on your own charts rather than just posting charts for the sake of posting charts with no comments, views or analysis. You do offer a lot of detail in your analysis which I think is a plus if your analysis is correct (I am not saying it is not) and it leads to a potential decision in whether to trade or not. Try a cup of Organic Ceremonial Grade Matcha Tea. I drink it in a Chawan every morning and use 70 degrees water temperature. It helps to focus your mind and relax your thoughts before trading. 🍵
  4. @Mercury, Are you a full time trader? I am not a full time trader. I work for a living (full time) and I manage and conduct my own 'Personal Investment Management Portfolio'. I am wondering what a professional full time trader would do which is different to the amount of time and analysis you seem to conduct?
  5. @Caseynotes, I agree with mining issues you point out. I dislike that whole scenario. I also think that though anything is possible a large crash on US equities is unlikely at this stage. We are just witnessing a large correction which to be fair was overdue. This has happened numerous times over the past 100 years and this will continue going forwards. I don't see Bitcoin not surviving as I think eventually all cryptos that do survive will be pegged to Bitcoin within the Cryptocurrency universe. I fear for Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold and the rest of the alt coins that offer no real value or benefit to the world right now.
  6. IG have posted this on the front page of their website under 'News Analysis'. Trump takes toll on oil price, pushing it below $60 as supply swells https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/commodities-news/Trump-takes-toll-on-oil-price--pushing-it-below--60-as-supply-swe-181123 I have commented on this before so I will not repeat myself but whether one likes or dislikes Trump, one must certainly not underestimate him.
  7. @rachelbarnes, I think I know what you are trying to suggest. I shall let you explain it in your response to @Mercury. I use moving averages. If the trend line using moving averages is trending upwards then it presents a buy opportunity. If it is trending downwards then a selling opportunity. If sideways then not really interested at that point in time. You then have when one moving average crosses another one and so on.
  8. 😂 I have an account with FXCM and their platform is actually quite good. Wow, $4m. Yes, IG seems fine for me. I would doubt very much that the differences are massively significant but will will let @ajaoz respond with more specific detail.
  9. There is now a strong downward pressure for Bitcoin to go towards $3,000.00. I think shorting any of the Cryptocurrencies that IG offer could be a profitable trade. I think the move looks so sharp downwards that it may even go down below $3,000.00 and into the $2,000.00 zone. This will happen relatively quickly. Yes there may be better opportunities elsewhere but are there any which if the move above does happen earn you the same level of profit in the same period of time? Is there any which can go up or down in number of points per £ in such a short time scale as I think Bitcoin will be involved in its strong move downwards?
  10. @ajaoz, When you say not correct are you able to be more specific? In what way are they not correct?
  11. @Mercury, Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular emerged from 2008 onwards. Therefore the historical data is just not available unlike FX, Commodities, Stocks, Bonds, etc. Cryptocurrencies that go to zero will fail and a lot of 'alt coins' will. If Bitcoin actually goes to zero then it will have failed in my opinion. If there are no increases in actual 'use cases' for Bitcoin or it cannot get institutional support on a large scale then it will be doomed. I think regulation will be crucial and what certain countries agree upon within their jurisdictions. Just because something is new like cryptos does not mean we should fear it but likewise we should not blindly accept it. When fiat currency was introduced it must have had scepticism. If one goes back into history then fiat currency depreciated so much in the 1700's that it reverted back to the 'silver standard'. I think we are seeing the beginning (we are still at a very early stage) of the evolution of digital currencies. We are in a 'digital age' where is seems ridiculous that the use of 'cheques' still exist. These users of cheques are decreasing year on year. Digital only online banks have emerged. I have an equity stake in a few of them. The future of money is digital and cryptocurrencies will lead us to digital currencies. I think until there is clear regulation from the big economies such as US, Japan, China, UK, France, Germany, India, Canada and Australia then cryptocurrencies cannot move on to the next level. The regulation will determine the adaptation needed to make cryptocurrencies fit for purpose and complaint based on legislation agreed.
  12. I ran out of time editing above so below is my correct post. I too am open to the possibility of the four points you state but if it happens or when it happens, it will be. I am not too concerned or worried about it. Yes it is in the back of my mind as a possibility but that is all as a) it could not happen or b) it could take 2-3 years for it to happen. My lump sum investing is buy low and sell high. However as I have stated on many occasions before I monthly invest and have been for many years as I do not have a crystal ball to be able to time the market accurately. However my trading perspective is to buy as the price increases and sell when the price is even higher but with a trend reversal. My timeframe is shorter when trading as it depends on the trading opportunity and my strategy is different. In investing I am in an 'accumulation phase' right now based on my age and risk profile. When I get closer to retirement I will be switching from a capital growth strategy to an income strategy where I look to reduce the risk substantially in my investment portfolio and look for dividends and income with more stability and less volatility. So right now I am not looking to sell. This will happen a few years before I approach retirement when there is an opportunity to take my profits from my capital growth funds and switch them into income funds. It may be many years in advance should an opportunity present itself. I have an open mind when it comes to both investing and trading and am willing to adapt my views and investing/trading strategy should the need arise. Right now I am just letting the price behaviour tell me the 'narrative'. It could be that in my trading portfolio I am short on indices, commodities and crypto but at the same time looking to buy (go long) and accumulate equities for my investment portfolio. I do not disagree with you and have thoughts about what I would do if your four points should materialise as one should always think ahead but apart from that it is about the present and what I will or will not do now based on current market activity. One point I would like to make at the end is that many traders and investors are not considering 'automated trading' which did not exist historically. Right now the largest institutions and the largest Hedge Funds are using them and they do move markets and they do influence price behaviour. This does affect current trends and patters like never before. For me this is game changing as these systems can implement all of the technical analysis indicators and theories out there and make predictions (artificial intelligence / machine learning) on how traders will react to price action and then make trading / investing decisions accordingly. This is a new animal in the jungle and it has a serious edge so one must consider this and have it in the back of their mind. If not then they will have the odds in their favour and based on probability they will beat the average trader more times than not.
  13. @Mercury, I too am open to the possibility of the four points you state but if it happens or when it happens, it will be. I am not too concerned or worried about it. Yes it is in the back of my mind as a possibility but that is all as a) it could not happen or b) it could 2-3 years for it to happen. My lump sum investing is buy low and sell high. However as I have stated on many occasions before I monthly invest and have been for many years as I do not have a crystal ball to be able to time the market accurately. However my trading perspective is to buy as the price increases and sell when the price is even higher but with a trend reversal. My timeframe is shorter when trading as it depends on the trading opportunity and my strategy is different. In investing I am in an 'accumulation phase' right now based on my age and risk profile. When I get closer to retirement I will be switching from a capital growth strategy to an income strategy where I look to reduce the risk substantially in my investment portfolio and look for dividends and income with more stability and less volatility. So right now I am not looking to sell. This will happen a few years before I approach retirement when there is an opportunity to take my profits from my capital growth funds and switch them into income funds. It may be many years in advance should an opportunity present itself. I have an open mind when it comes to both investing and trading and am willing to adapt my views and investing/trading strategy should the need arise. Right now I am just letting the price behaviour tell me the 'narrative'. It could be that in my trading portfolio I am short on indices, commodities and crypto but at the same time looking to buy (go long) and accumulate equities for my investment portfolio. I do not disagree with you and have thoughts about what I would do if your four points should materialise as one should always think ahead but apart from that it is about the present and what I will or will not do now back on market activity.
  14. @Mercury, at this juncture I do not think Bitcoin will get wiped out. It will still exist but other alt coins may begin eating into its market share unless it improves, develops and adapts into something which the world wants and needs. What other trading opportunities offer points on both the long and short side in a relatively shorter time period than Cryptocurrencies? Day traders would be loving Crypto's and how much they can make day trading both long/short in a day. What other asset is going down as many points as Cryptos has over the past few days? There are times when the best trading opportunities for a profit perspective (short trades) at the moment are Cryptos. If a success company which is profitable and revenues are increasing suddenly sees it share price declining because there is profit taking, someone decides to short or it has one bad trading year, does not necessarily mean the company is in trouble. So therefore why is Bitcoin in trouble just because it is having its normal correction of 80% from its recent all time high? This is just how Bitcoin is performing now and has done since 2009. Was it not in trouble over the past 9 years when it had quite a few large corrections from its all time high? The weak Cryptos will fail and disappear. The strongest will survive and get stronger as they evolve, adapt and advance going into the future.
  15. @rachelbarnes, I would like to add something different to this thread but keeping it relevant. @Caseynotes and @Mercury may well comment. Algorithmic 'Black Box' trading has taken over in recent times. They have emerged and changes the so called rules of the game. They did not exist in the 1920's or even the 1970's. Therefore any trends and historical patterns in those time periods are kind of just historical. Large institutions and Hedge Funds who use such 'techniques' if you can call them that can move very large sums of capital and very quickly too. They can be in and out of an asset with basically total automated risk control. As they are in effect a machine they have no fear or emotion to contend with. Such 'bots' as I call them which are controlled by these large financial institutions and large Hedge Funds can really exploit lots of traditional technical analysis. They can analyse all these past historical trends and patterns over the last 100 years and create strategies that take into account what 'technical traders' will do and they can counter such moves. They can force false breakouts on both the long and short side. They can manipulate and 'play' with trend-line traders and can really manipulate volume and price with off-exchange 'dark pool' trades. I know someone who I shall not name who traded currencies at an institutional interbank for well over a decade. He traded around $100 million a day and provided liquidity to the biggest banks and Hedge Funds in the world. He advised me that he ran back tests with years or price data to find the most 'optimal' moving average combination for any time frame. He stated that he tried and tried but there was no combination that was constantly better than any other. He stressed to me that there were no magic numbers of Fibonacci sequences which made any more difference. The point I am trying to articulate is that in most cases just keeping things simple with price action and volume does work as in my personal experience the most important factors are your research process, execution, discipline and risk management. I am not against technical analysis but I do not believe that past patterns necessarily correlate into future patterns. Some may do but how would one know in which asset this is going to occur as a lot of them just simply do not. I just thought I would offer different thoughts on this thread. These are my personal opinions and I could be just as easily be wrong and totally misguided so I am not trying to force my views upon anyone else. I am just offering a slightly different viewpoint that others in the IG Community may wish to consider.
  16. @Mercury, So what if there is a depression? Those with capital and a longer timeframe will be able to accumulate at lower prices so that when there is a recovery they can accumulate large wealth. This is from an investment perspective rather than a trading perspective. Times were different in 1929, it was a different generation and companies were run differently. The levels of profits and revenues were different. The products manufactured, the supply chains, the services offered were different. We are now in a more connected world where supply chains can start in the US, go through Europe and the Middle East and then end up in Asia. It is different times and I believe that past trends and patterns do not necessarily have to repeat themselves. One could state that a past pattern was when Bitcoin hit $20k. It does not mean this pattern will repeat itself. Bitcoin has been going up since 2009 but it does not mean the next 10 years it will go up. Past patterns and trends are important and we can consider them but current price behaviour is the most important thing and it is this that we must base our decisions upon. I think at times we can analyse far too much and look too far into the past for statistics to support our views. I am not disagreeing about whether there could be a major recession or downturn. The simple truth is that I do not know and I do not really care as it is out of my control. What I can do is have an investment strategy (mine is different to my trading strategy and I keep them both separate) and make investment decisions based on our strategy and plan. We can use price behaviour and fundamental analysis to help us reach the best decisions at the time. We can all read up about what happened in 1929 and 1987 but in 2018 our decisions cannot be based on such historical information. Times are different now. We have different trading and investment strategies. We have computers executing trades in nano seconds. We have algorithmic trading. We are entering a period where Robotics, Automation, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Tokenisation, etc. are all looking to be implemented into business systems and processes. Children are learning more at a younger age and they are become more advanced in technology. The workforce will be different going forwards with different skills for a different and connected digital world. The point I am trying to make is that new trends, new patterns, new 'history', new statistics and new assumptions can be created going forwards meaning that stock markets may not react like how they reacted in the past. I am not suggesting there will not be a crash and severe downturn. There may well be. But as investors and traders we can only invest and trade based on the 'hand we are dealt'. This is the information and price behaviour which presents itself based on economic and political actions which manifest itself into a narrative that we will soon read about. If the world sees anything like deflation or a crash similar to 1929 then I think Cryptocurrencies will go through the roof on the upside as it will be the 'narrative' that will give it strong support. If people become poorer, their assets are worth less, they cannot buy anything with their fiat currency then it could give Cryptocurrencies version 2.0 or 3.0 by then the foundation to really take off. I could be totally wrong but these are my views at this moment in time and there is absolutely nothing wrong with views changing should circumstances and experiences change. @Mercury, I am not suggesting you are wrong. I am merely offering my own viewpoint and it is fine if our views are different. This is a healthy discussion and both of our views can merge, change or stay the same. It will be dependant on what we read, what we see, what we believe and of course what actually happens going forwards.
  17. @Mercury, First of all, after such a drop it would not be too difficult to predict that there will be a rally in oil! A rally normally follows such a large drop. The question is whether there is further downside left and it bottoms and then a slow rally upwards begins or there is a quicker rally which is imminent. Secondly, let's test your assumption and see if the evidence (as in price action / behaviour) validates your assumption. Lets see if there is now a rally in Oil as per your cue.
  18. @Nelsy-Boy, Having had several discussions with @Mercury, I can recommend that he would be a good person to offer opinions on Elliot Wave theory for your chart.
  19. I suggested in an earlier post how the US and Trump wanted lower oil prices to help the US economy and around the mid term election period.
  20. @Mercury, Figuring out bottoms is extremely difficult. Also if you are a full time investor / trader then fine but if you work full time then to have the time to even try and find bottoms is extremely time consuming. When one tries to find bottoms they can end up missing any major upside that usually occurs. Time out of the market can sometimes be costly. I invest monthly using 'pound cost averaging' strategy. I then only invest lump sums on any major corrections / downturns. Otherwise my monthly payments just get invested per month. On those major corrections / downturns I will make a judgement and usually I have not invested right at the bottom but generally I am not too far off. That is fine for me as my investment strategy is for the long term. Also I am not a seller looking to sell anything. I am only looking to invest and build up my investment side of the portfolio for long term wealth creation. I am not suggesting my method is right or anything. It seems to work for me as this strategy as enabled my investment portfolio to always be in profit overall and my annualised return each year has always been in double digits but your method may be more prudent and sensible. I would not want to be out of the equities market for a few years. If equities had a major drop over the next few years I would want to be accumulating on each of those large drops as predicting bottoms will get you a 'slap'!
  21. @Nelsy-Boy, If you right click on the actual chart (on iMac) and select 'Export Chart' it goes up on the right hand side of the screen and creates a new small box with a downward arrow. When you click in this it will have all your downloads and the chart will be in there. You can then drag this into your post. This is how I include charts using an Apple iMAC. I am not sure if it is different on PC's.
  22. @Mercury, You raise valid points in your first paragraph. In relation to your second paragraph, I am yet to be convinced that Gold and Silver look bullish. I would need further positive upward price action for me to accept any confirmation of Gold and Silver looking bullish. I think if stock markets were to tumble further downwards then you could well be correct in your assessment of Gold and Silver. I agree it certainly is very interesting. I will personally see any crash in stock markets as an opportunity to invest lump sums into such large corrections. I invest monthly into equities but would supplement this with lump sum investments should there be a large and rather aggressive downward drop like one would see in recessions. I did exactly this during the Financial Crisis and it amplified my profits when the upward move came. I shall be doing the same should a similar scenario present itself.
  23. @Mercury, You state that the following: The price action for me personally suggests a short set up. If this does not then I don't know what does. I see similarities with this and Lumber's recent downtrend. There are similarities in the speed in which both went downwards. By the time you get a confirmation of a short trade it may even be too late. It may mean even if you were to open a short trade on Oil that you may only catch a small part of it due to the bulk of the move which would have surpassed you.
  24. These drops have been witnessed quite a few times now and those who have been involved in trading Crypto's will have experienced such large drops. It really is nothing new or of any surprise. This was always on the cards and a lot of people within the IG Community even suggested it a few months back. The smart traders will have shorted Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin, etc. and profited from their wisdom, experience and knowledge. This latest large drop will begin to weed out the 'rubbish' within the Crypto Universe. This is extremely important and necessary. Also it will take the Crypto's which survive on to the next level in its evolution. There will be change and the survivors will need to adapt so that if offers what the market requires going forward. I don't know if Bitcoin will go to $3,000, $2,000 or even $1000 but once it bottoms the value investors and large institutions are going to invest heavily in the strongest surviving Cryptos whether that be Bitcoin, Ether, Ripple, Stellar or any other which emerges from this monster move downwards. They will emerge stronger and more resilient. Regulation in the US, UK, EU and Asia will be key going forwards. Bitcoin has been in so called trouble numerous times over the past few years and has survived. It will not be any different this time. It will survive as if anything the better and more quality Crypto's are getting stronger and one only needs to see the calibre of partnerships Ripple is building and Stellar and IBM's collaboration to witness this.
×
×