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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. , A very good question which is the crux of my point that I made in my previous post. I am unsure about a scalable and useful use case for Bitcoin Gold which my previous point alludes to. Bitcoin Gold was a hard fork from the original Bitcoin (open source). This was in relation to the mining process. The Bitcoin Gold developers backed a new algorithm which did not favour major mining operations. One of the draws could be that it is a free open source project built by developers. To answer your question from what I have read then Bitcoin Gold aims to integrate open source libraries and assist in academic and university collaboration. There is a plan to integrate a debit card program. Right now there are companies looking to back cryptocurrencies with real assets like gold. For example, Lionsgold, an AIM listed company has launched Goldbloc which is backing crypto with real gold. Other companies are also doing this and have got there well before Lionsgold. My understanding is that Bitcoin Gold is specifically targeting the education market, research and scholarship area. I must admit how it will do this is a bit unclear to me. Personally, I think Ether will take a share of this market and if Bitcoin Gold is serious then it will find itself competing with Ether in this area and the use of 'smart contacts'. Bitcoin Gold could be used for voting, etc. Voting could be scalable and a useful use case but this is just me thinking out aloud. The processing time for both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Gold are similar. Also the 21 million circulation is also very similar. However could Bitcoin Gold be used as a digital security system against Bitcoin and offer a security protection? I don't know but with replay protection that protects from accidents and threats then Bitcoin Gold could go down the security path. Again how likely is this? The only thing I can see is that rather than Bitcoin becoming the digital store of value, it is Bitcoin Gold that becomes the digital gold. However, I think these forks could have a dilutive effect if there is no clear scalable use cases for the resulting new digital asset that is created after the fork. One could ask the same question you have asked about Bitcoin Cash!
  2. I recall a billionaire investor (can't remember name) who suggested that Bitcoin will hit a trillion dollar market cap. When he was drilled down he clarified that he did not mean Bitcoin by itself but Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold combined would hit a trillion dollar market cap within the next few years. I think the narrative needs to be made clearer on Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Cash plus Bitcoin itself. Going forwards if one wanted to have a hedge or defensive position then they could allocate capital into Bitcoin Gold. Maybe they could use Bitcoin Cash to pay for goods and services such as a cup of coffee or a taxi due to faster transaction times. Both could be backed / supported by Bitcoin itself. This is just me 'thinking out aloud' but the narrative is not clear enough for me yet. Once the person on the street 'Joe Bloggs' understands the advantages and uses for Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin itself is when things will really start to get interesting. Why would someone buy Bitcoin Cash ahead of Bitcoin? Why would someone choose Bitcoin Gold over Bitcoin Cash? Once the 'background story' is set and the narrative is clear then we will really begin to see the potential trillion dollar combined market cap. Until then capital will move between alt coins like Ripple, Litecoin, etc. I separate Ether as I think it operates in a different market within the same universe in terms of 'smart contracts'.
  3. $55,000 has been hit as I predicted. This is a perfect example of how long a strong trend which is extremely bullish can last. Trends can last a lot longer than what most investors and traders think.
  4. , No I do not work for IG. I played a part in the creation of the Cryptocurrency and Blockchain section within the IG Community Discussion Forum. It used to be mixed within the FX section which I did not feel was appropriate. I put my suggestions to James (IG Community Manager) and he arranged for this new section to be created. I spread bet crypto's using IG's platform (profits are free from CGT), invest in crypto's using XBT's trackers. I also invest in blockchain related companies. I do a lot of reading and research within the crypto and blockchain space and feel that the IG Community allows me the platform to share my knowledge and experience with those who may be interested.
  5. , I take it you are referring to the Wyckoff Trading System? One assumes you are using some sort of algorithm? If you use it effectively to analyse patterns in waves and volume to help you identify any supply and demand imbalances. Having an 'edge' is extremely important if one wants to be profitable not only in the short term but in the long term too and continue not only to survive trading in the markets but be consistently profitable. This may help you obtain an 'edge' if used correctly and effectively. At the time of writing 8:00 pm Bitcoin is down around 4% where as other cryptos are down 10%, 12% and 16% showing that when there are sharp corrections in the crypto market then Bitcoin offers better resistance to the downside on such corrections. This assumption obviously needs to be tested going forwards but I am putting the theory out there for anyone to test should they wish to do so.
  6. At the time of writing - 07:12 am - Bitcoin is showing strong defensive qualities and true resilience compared to other cryptocurrencies which are demonstrating sharp corrections which I am sure are healthy and needed before the next leg up. Bitcoin seems to be behaving like gold within the cryptocurrency universe. It is such a volatile and crazy market at the moment that by the time some read this post, Bitcoin, may have even declined more than other cryptos. :smileylol:
  7. https://hacked.com/bitcoin-and-gold-are-trading-inversely-with-one-another/
  8. Closing only. Market unable to open. What a surprise!
  9. I thought I would mention the trend in Cocoa - New York. I wanted to wait to see if anyone else brought this to the attention of the IG community but I could not wait any longer. Trends can materialise in commodities when one least expects. The markets premium over London reached its highest since 1977. Reports indicate that it relates to system fund buying and those trading the arbitrage covering their short positions in the US market and liquidating longs in London. From a fundamental perspective the worlds surplus is disappearing. From a technical perspective the trend is strong from the start of 2018 onwards. These trends can last longer than what one thinks.
  10. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/23/early-tech-investor-says-bitcoin-will-be-bigger-than-the-internet.html
  11. Many will call it a coincidence, but when one has seen such patterns over the course of the last several years then it becomes a trend that one begins to anticipate. Just take a look at the Trump and North Korea rhetoric as a more recent example. The bitcoin price went up after the news was released of the military air strikes against Syria. Even if this was a mere coincidence which it could have been, it does begin to highlight the idea that bitcoin could be one of the best hedges yet against economic and political turmoil. During such action do you think the Russians and Chinese are going to stick their money in gold which is something that can be manipulated or bitcoin? I think the true test to really ascertain if bitcoin is really becoming the new digital gold is to see by how much gold and bitcoin increased during the build up to the military strike in Syria and then by how much did they both increase once the military action in Syria was announced by the media. The answer is that bitcoin outperformed gold on both accounts. On this basis how can one even suggest that gold is a better hedge or a more efficient safe haven than bitcoin during current times. I accept gold has been a better safe haven during historical periods, that is unquestionable. I think going forwards something really exciting is happening which means that bitcoin is merely attempting to become digital gold v 2.0.
  12. I don't trade FX but I find that quite surprising. Trailing stops are brilliant when you are in winning positions as it enables you to exit with a guaranteed profit. If that is true then it gives the house an edge as if there are violent swings the your profit could turn into a loss very quickly indeed! On Spread-betting you have the option of 'normal' 'guaranteed' and 'trailing' to select when opening a position in terms of stops. For me personally, trailing stops are the way to go but even I am not sure whether during an open position if you can switch from one stop loss type to another or for those who do not set a stop loss whether one can be activated after you open a position. I have never opened a spread bet without a stop loss so I genuinely am not sure if it is possible or not on a spread bet. Interesting question and the answer will be even more interesting.
  13. , those people you refer to who had been waiting to pounce over three weeks may be just a few billionaires who are in the club of owning 90% of Bitcoin. They are the ones who move the prices. They wait for the right narrative to be released and then once this narrative gets widely released and not just on the actual day of the news then it gives Bitcoin a stronger background for the move. These Billionaires want Bitcoin to succeed and need to present as much credibility as possible to the world hence why the news stories become important. I would not be surprised if these few Billionaires who move the Bitcoin price control the news flow or are aware of when it is going to get released and have a strong calculated theory of moving the Bitcoin price. Though the actual news story itself may not be the cause, I think it was all part of the background narrative story to give the move upwards more credibility than just technicals. Bitcoin has to provide fundamental news to the 'person on the street' as they will not understand or follow the technicals. If you look back then you will find similar patterns where there is a narrative that has been released to the world which coincides with the technicals on Bitcoin. I think going forwards you will find the same patterns. However, you may right but if you are interested then going forwards when any such spike occurs have a look at both the technicals and fundamentals and see what you think. It does not matter when the actual news stories were written, it is when they are released to the mainstream around the world.
  14. Crypto's are moving downwards on negative new and upwards on positive news. The news itself may have no bearing on the future of these Cryptocurrencies but it seems that news flow is moving Cryptocurrencies right now.
  15. , I take it you have not heard about Bitcoin and the Sharia Law story? Islamic Scholar Says Bitcoin is Compliant With Sharia Law as Price Surges https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-declared-compliant-with-sharia-law-price-surges/
  16. Have a look at the price action of Gold right now at 20:33 compared to Bitcoin when Russia has called United Nations meeting in relation to possible US action in Syria. Bitcoin is up 12% and Gold is down 1.39%. Which is the better safe haven in times of political uncertainty and potential of war?
  17. I have to hand it to IG. The timing in releasing the Ether / Bitcoin (USD) was excellent. They could not have timed it any better and just at a time when there seems to signs of divergence where new recent lows have been made and the trend may be slowing and possible up-shoots begin to emerge. Ether's price action seems to be more positive upwards over the past few days than Bitcoin's. It is only small at the moment but as the days and weeks pass it could get bigger which is where the Ether / Bitcoin (USD) becomes interesting. Also you can short this.
  18. Maybe the fusion of Bitcoin and Gold could be the answer for the ultimate safe haven. There are companies right now looking to back Bitcoin with real physical gold. I am not so sure as I think Bitcoin wants to be a digital store of value which replaces the need to physically buy, hold or even the need to acquire gold. To answer your question if there was something like an EMP attack then unless it was in the entire world at the same time then the Bitcoin network would continue as normal around the rest of the world. How likely is it that there would be an EMP attack in the entire world at the same time? Very unlikely.
  19. Just in case people are not aware there is now a new trade available on IG to spread bet Crypto's. It is Ether / Bitcoin (USD). Ether seems to be outperforming Bitcoin in terms of percentage daily returns over the past few days.
  20. If there was World War III then I would put my money in Bitcoin. We saw what happened to the Bitcoin price when they was only rhetoric between Trump and North Korea.
  21. There is no method that can be used to identify a trend reversal with 100% accuracy. However, what you can do is monitor the price action and behaviour to help you identify when the trend could reverse. I say could as it is not a 100% guarantee. Some of the factors that one could consider is trying to identify any weakness in the trending move either on the long or short side. One could also look at the strength in any retracement move. You may see a break in any key support or resistance. A good signal is any break in the long term trend line. When you see the price being overextended or when the price goes parabolic then these can be good indicators but that is all they are. It is risky using any one of these in isolation and they need to be used together to give you the best chance on the balance of probability to make right calls more times than wrong calls over a period of time. If you look at the Bitcoin chart when the price went parabolic which is normally a sign that the dumb money is entering and the smart money is leaving then there was a trend reversal. From my experience parabolic moves upwards like a 'rocket' normally mean the end of the current trend on the long side from my experience.
  22. At the time of writing Bitcoin has hit $7094.00 and is up nearly 7%. There has also been an attack in the German city of Muenster. Traditionally Gold would be the safe haven or go to asset when there was any terrorism, political instability and economic crisis. However, Bitcoin, aiming to be the new digital store of value for the coming future has seen its price rise. Now it may well be just a mere coincidence but if you read some of my historical postings then you will see that during Brexit, Trump elections, North Korea tensions with Trump, acts of terrorism around the world then the price of Bitcoin has always been positive on the upside. It may just be mere coincidence and nothing more but when such patterns occur more frequently on such events then it does make one think that Bitcoin is having a real go at replacing Gold as 'the' safe haven asset to go to.
  23. https://sputniknews.com/business/201804071063306368-soros-fund-cryptocurrency-operations/
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