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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. , From a trend following perspective until there is a clear trend reversal and signal one has no reason to enter a long trade in either Bitcoin or Ether. You are merely relying on hope to see support for both Bitcoin and Ether in the short term which means there is an element of uncertainty as there is always on any trade. However, to increase your chances based on balance of probability it is far more effective to wait for confirmation before placing any such trade to increase your chances of success. For me from a technical perspective there is no long trade on for Bitcoin and Ether at this moment in time. This may well change in the future but right now if there is any trade on then it is a short trade. Most of the smart money has been made shorting Crypto's. There may be the final leg down to come where Bitcoin could hit between $3000 - $4000. This may not happen if there is lots of positive news released around Bitcoin but this is anyone's guess. I believe in the long term story for Cryptocurrencies, Digital Currencies, Blockchain, Tokenisation, ICO's, etc. but I will not go against the trend as this increases the chances of losing.
  2. My stop losses got triggered so I do not hold any long positions at this moment in time for any Crypto related investment / trades. I will only re-enter any long positions once there is a clear trend reversal. Yes I am short Bitcoin and Ether via spread bets on IG. How about you . What are your positions on Crypto or do you just post? Do you have any short positions on Cryptos?
  3. The only trade on for Bitcoin has been short unless you are day trading using volatility to maximise daily returns both on the long and short side. Bitcoin could easily hit between $3000 - $4000 levels before any monster move upwards. Right now the media is releasing negative news after negative news on Bitcoin. Also the price action is extremely negative with a strong downward bias. On top of this bans across the world is influencing those who believe media hype and 'market noise'. Once this is all out of the way, only then will there be any sustained move upwards in Bitcoin.
  4. The positive and bullish price action for Lumber has arisen from the wildfire led supply restrictions in Canada and the US. Also the hurricanes and tariffs imposed by the US government on Canadian imports. The story from a fundamental perspective is strong and supports the trend shown from a technical perspective based on the charts. This is a very good example of where fundamental and technical analysis support each other and the result is the bullish trend in Lumber over the last couple of years. I think from experience as production normalises and the supply situation improves then the price action will lose some momentum. In my opinion the strong demand in the US and the tariffs on Canadian Lumber should help keep a solid base and a floor under the prices. The chart for Lumber reminds me of chart for Brazil 60. Both have seen extremely bullish upward trends over a similar period of time. Both have been wonderful long plays. It just shows it is not about the 'sexy' oil or gold plays. Smart money is made in trades where many least expect.
  5. A lot can change depending on the time of posting. It seems like Lumber hit $52,300 area. I agree there could be a breakout and the potential is high for this. Lumber may try and go for $55,000 if it can continue. Bullish trends last longer than people think. However, when a bearish trend emerges and it will then it will be far more quicker during a shorter timescale. For now there seems to be a bullish trend emerging and it will be interesting to see if this is short term or longer.
  6. Lumber is holding firm at around $51000 level. There seems to be a bit of weakness entering the strength of the trend but no distinctive trend reversal yet. It could happen so one must be ready but at the moment just need to be patient and let the price action determine how one must react.
  7. Soybean Meal seems to be trying to breaking beyond the $38000 level but is finding it difficult. However, it seems to be holding its own at the moment. If it does hit $40,000 again then it really will get very interesting. Fundamentals are playing a very important part at the moment. Tariffs combined with increase in imports for certain countries meaning that demand vs supply is crucial in this set of circumstances.
  8. Lumber could be resuming it trend back upwards. If it goes back above $52,000 then it could get very interesting.
  9. Patience is key. Sometimes the smart move is to do nothing. If you believe in the Ether, Ethereum, Blockchain, Smart Contracts and have a strong enough conviction based on the data, information and analysis carried out then just be patient and see where Ether the end of the year.
  10. , This is interesting. It should cut costs in theory. It will be interesting to see if 'tech firms' try and emulate such a move. From memory, Metro Bank, went the direct listing route rather than IPO. Very interesting.
  11. , It all depends from which perspective you are looking at this. Everyone has different levels of knowledge and experience in Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies. One must appreciate that what may be a 'great chat' for some may be a waste of 40 minutes for others. There is no right or wrong here. If you enjoyed it then that is absolutely fine. I actually thought Stephen came across very well. It is Nick Cawley that I had an issue with. I preferred something that posted from TED - Bettina Warburg. It was far more interesting to spend the time watching. I think this latest IG offering was great for beginners or for those seeking a better understanding on Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain and I don't have a problem with that. For me, time could have been better spent and I will leave it at that. I would strongly recommend you or anyone else for that matter to watch the Bettina Warburg presentation on Blockchain.
  12. I must admit I found it staggering that Nick Cawley is an expert. He seemed uninterested and showed very little passion and enthusiasm for such a 'hot' area at the moment. He also did not fill me with any confidence about his knowledge of Cryptocurrencies or Blockchain technology. The other gentleman was far more knowledgable and demonstrated far more passion and enthusiasm for the subject matter in question. What did investors really learn from this latest IG offering? Very little in my opinion. Was there anything within the 40 minutes that would help investors to make an informed trading or investing decision? Not in my personal opinion and certainly nothing from Nick Cawley.
  13. , I have the following two questions: What are your thoughts on the scaling solution for Plasma? I ask this in terms of the computational potential of the Ethereum blockchain. Will this solve the scalability issues of Ethereum? I am referring to 'Plasma Coins'. Does Ether need more institutional trading opportunities and institutional investors for it to really take on Bitcoin in terms of Market Cap? Can blockchain effectively and efficiently fix the internet? Thanks TrendFollower
  14. , Thank you very much for your response. However, I will politely disagree with the IG Smart Portfolio strategy. I have been investing for many years which in turn has built up some valuable first hand experience. I also am lucky enough to have friends and contacts who are far wiser, smarter and wealthier than me who also have a very similar investment approach to mine. The IG Smart Portfolio is not suitable for my risk appetite and risk tolerance. If one carries out research, quantifies data, establishes the trending themes, has conviction and confidence in ones own ability to judge the current potential and carry out meaningful analysis then it reduces the need to even think about ones strategy going wrong. I am referring to long term investing rather than trading. My approach to trading is very different to my approach to investing long term. I keep both portfolios totally seperate. My personal performance from my long term investment portfolio and my total and annualised returns more than justifies the level of higher risk that I am taking. You miss the 'key point' in my strategy. I accept there will always be downturns along the way in a long term investment strategy. However these will be more than likely to be followed by upturns. During these downturns, I invest lump sums. 'Be greedy when others are fearful'. This has helped me achieve some really excellent performance statistics over the years. During both downturns and upturns I will continue with the 'pound cost averaging' strategy. However, during the downturns I will make lump sum investments. This amplifies the profit potential when these very markets begin trending upwards. Investors tend to focus on total returns. That is important but for me I am more interested in annualised returns over a longer time period. As a long term investor who is not looking to sell or take any profits at this stage due to my long term wealth creation strategy then I embrace downturns. This gives me an opportunity to invest at lower prices on themes or ideas that I support over a longer time horizon. I don't worry about downturns or even see them as a risk. Once you start thinking like the IG Smart Portfolio then you are already reducing your chances of larger returns as the level of risk is being reduced in the portfolio. I accept this product may be suitable for some. However if you want the chance to earn the highest returns then you are better off creating your own smart portfolio and doing it yourself. If you don't have the discipline, time, energy, experience or knowledge then IG's Smart Portfolio may be worth considering.
  15. , Excellent. Just watched it and I totally agree. I strongly endorse comments. It is worth spending 15 minutes watching a very well presented 'presentation'.
  16. I have been investing into an ISA for many years now and have a high risk capital growth strategy. I invest in income funds including OEICS. I invest in around 20 different funds per month using a 'cost pound averaging' strategy but I have invested lump sums only during major recessions, corrections and financial crisis of course! This has helped to maximise my returns and profits. I will continue to only invest lump sums during such periods. My annualised performance is extremely healthy and overall my portfolio has never made a loss. Some of the funds may make a loss for the year but the others more than compensate for the losses. I invest in 'frontier market' funds, 'emerging market' funds, 'micro cap' funds, 'smaller companies' funds such as Japanese, US, European and UK. Also Asian smaller companies funds. I also have exposure to commodity funds such as metals, energy and agriculture. My funds that I invest in are at the higher risk end of the spectrum but with great risk comes the potential of greater returns. Your returns are far too low for my liking. Your 'aggressive' portfolio is for far more defensive and less adventurous investors than me. I have plenty of diversification over the 20 funds but also some similarities over stronger themes. I accept diversification can reduce the volatility and risk in an investment portfolio. However some of the best performing returns in an portfolio can some by investing in the stronger trending themes over the right period of time. Conviction in certain investment themes backed up by strong research, analysis and understanding is crucial.
  17. Interesting question. I did not realise that IG had a presence in India. I think cities like Mumbai and Ahmedabad in Gujarat could be very interesting for IG.
  18. To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin. At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4 hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections. As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying.
  19. Part I: I am getting asked a lot of questions on Blockchain. I have promised many that I will start a post and begin putting down some of my thoughts for the IG Community to read and consider. If those who read do not agree or appreciate my thoughts then that is absolutely fine. In my opinion (based on what I have read on the subject matter) then Blockchain is at the same level to where the Internet was during its earlier years. If Blockchain is applied successfully then it could make the Internet more decentralised which is how it was initially intended. I think it is the most important development since the Internet. For me in simple terms, Blockchain is a form of technology that can record transactions on a permanent basis which cannot be altered. This is extremely useful from an audit perspective. I can envisage most people checking and verifying information on the 'Blockchain'. It may well even replace the word database! Blockchain is the technology behind Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. They exist because of the Blockchain technology behind it and underpinning it. From a technical perspective, Blockchain could be described as a back end database that maintains a distributed ledger. From a business perspective, Blockchain could be described as an exchange network for moving transactions, value, assets without any intermediaries. From a legal perspective, Blockchain validates transactions which replaces that historically trusted institutions / organisations. One way of looking at Blockchain is merely an extension of the Internet. Those who appreciate the historical evolution of the World Wide Web will appreciate Blockchain and the journey it is heading towards. Just like the World Wide Web needs the Internet so too does Blockchain applications. The ambition is that they can bypass the Web and create a more decentralised version. This is one of the biggest promises of Blockchain technology. In all my time investing, my experience tells me that as a trend follower, the strongest impact for a trend or technology is whether it has a strong narrative. In my opinion, Blockchain, has an extremely strong narrative. The Internet too had a strong narrative. The most popular use of Blockchain technology has been Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In simplistic terms, Blockchain is like a very large database. Blockchain is also very technical. I suggest anyone who is genuinely really interested to read books on Blockchain as that is the only way they can really even begin to understand the complexities behind Blockchain. I am keeping things very simple for the IG Community. However I will add more detail and specifics in future parts to this post. Part II: If one looks at Blockchain from a technology perspective then one will implement it as a technology. However, if one looks at Blockchain as a business change enabler then one will begin to think about business processes. It is only when one starts looking at different business processes where Blockchain could be applied to make it more efficient, effective, robust and quick that the markets around the world really do begin to open up in one's mind. I think what people forget is that Blockchain offers a genuine new way of implementing trust in relation to transactions. It is perfectly feasible to make an assumption that going forwards in the future it will be machines that will compute trust rather than it being verified by humans. I think from an evidential standard, it is not unreasonable to even suggest that proving that something did actually happen will be served by Blockchains. A lot of people will be aware of smart contracts and smart property. These in my opinion will be Blockchain's initial biggest drivers. I think the mainstream is simply not educated enough in the subject area to truly appreciate Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies. For example, if I had a rare vintage Swiss watch, expensive art, unique stamp or rare diamond ring then I would go to the relevant specialists and experts to get a true valuation of its worth. Blockchain and especially Cryptocurrencies are the same but the audience commenting on it may not have the specialist knowledge required to even understand what the true valuation could be for Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies. Why should a journalist, news reporter, mainstream media, person on the street, your neighbour, relative, friend or colleague be qualified to even comment that Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies are worthless and frauds. How can they without having the technical knowledge behind the subject area suggest that for example Bitcoin is going down to zero. I will end this part by stating that we are beginning to accept that the future of cars is 'self-driving' and 'electric / hydrogen'. If we open our mind then we will begin to accept that the future of money is 'digital' and the way to move assets and conduct transactions around the world are going to be based on the 'Blockchain'. Part III: Coming Soon
  20. http://fortune.com/2018/02/08/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-gold-price-buy/
  21. https://www.investopedia.com/news/tyler-winklevoss-bitcoin-gold-ether-oil-litecoin-testnet/
  22. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/spending-cryptocurrencies-on-everyday-purchases-is-getting-easier.html This is not bad for something which I see more as a digital store of value like Gold v.2.0! The reason why Bitcoin will be better than Gold is because you will be able to spend Bitcoin and use its store of value for purchasing more things than you ever could with Gold.
  23. I came across this interesting article. http://time.com/money/5178814/the-future-of-cryptocurrency/
  24. Two Bullish Signs For Bitcoin https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/03/02/two-bullish-signs-for-bitcoin/#4ecfca706383 I cannot believe it. I had noticed / observed the same thing many months ago. My historical posts will evidence this. Forbes are only now reporting on the price behaviour of Bitcoin during Trump vs North Korea!
  25. My views are all in my previous posts which I don't want to keep on repeating. Feel free when you get a chance to read some of my previous posts and then you will appreciate my viewpoint. I am positive about Cryptocurrencies, Digital Currencies and Blockchain Technology. I believe the valuations and thus share price will increase for quality Blockchain companies. I feel that the more robust and practical Cryptocurrencies will see their value appreciate. It may be Bitcoin it may not but I see Bitcoin more as a digital store of value and a 'Digital Gold v2.0'. Bitcoin has not crashed to zero like the media predicted. Nor has it crashed down to $1000 (though I accept it could). The price of an asset is merely what someone is prepared to pay for it (taking supply and demand) into account. I accept that is a very simplistic view and basic view but if I get time then I will go into the economics of it on a different post. Bitcoin did briefly go below $6000 which was still way up from the start of the year and is now hovering around the $10k to $11k levels which is still impressive and a remarkable price appreciation over the past year or two. If someone gave me physical gold, where would I store it? If I found somewhere to store it then there is likely to be storage costs and transport costs to move it if necessary. What can I buy from physical gold? Lets say I have gold bars and go to a coffee shop then will they accept my physical gold as payment? There are coffee shops appearing if reports are to be believed that will accept Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether as payment for even a simple cup of coffee. Gold is 'old school' and Cryptocurrencies is 'new school'. One must adapt and change with the times. One must open their mind and expand ones thinking to truly appreciate the transformation we are about to witness. I respect those who do not agree with me or share my viewpoint. They may be correct but my view is that ICO's, Tokenisation and cryptocurrencies are the future. Blockchain will of course be a part of this future. The new younger generation does not want to store its wealth or capital in the likes of physical gold. They understand digital more than commodities like Gold. Do you the new younger generation really appreciate how to invest in junior gold mining companies? Do they understand how the spot gold price works? Are they interested in gold production and the supply and demand for gold? I would argue that this new younger generation understands and appreciate the need to buy goods and services using digital means rather than physical. This means digital payments rather than physical payments. This transformation has already began and it may take a many years but this journey is going to create some serious wealth along the way.
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