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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Cryptocurrencies are volatile by nature. History tells us this and nothing about its current price activity has altered this so far. This may be changing on Bitcoin based on reports I have read but for the other alt coins volatility does not seem to have changed. Yes, historically I would have expected to see all cryptocurrencies move together but things are changing. For example Ripple and Stellar's charts are looking different to Bitcoin and Ether's. It seems they both are trying to eat into the market share that Bitcoin and Ether once enjoyed and to a certain extent are still enjoying, well Ether just about! Ripple is hot on its heels to take over as the 2nd largest valued by market cap. I do not trade Bitcoin and Ether. I have invested in both of them a couple of years ago through Exchange Traded Notes (ETN's) using XBT Provider One. I managed to invest in Bitcoin when it was around the $2000 mark and have held ever since. They are long term investments for me which I will just hold. I am not sure about adding to them as I watched them go all the way to $20,000 and then back to $6000. If Ripple goes below its current 100 day moving average price then my stop loss will execute me out of the trade. This is a more speculative trade for me and I want to test some theories and assumptions to see how they play out and sometimes you can only learn and gain experience by testing in the 'real market' in 'real market conditions'. One of my assumptions is that Ripple may have bottomed. Yes the price will go up and down like a yo-yo but I assume that it will do so slowly creeping upwards making higher lows which it has been doing since Monday 17th September 2018. It failed to make a higher high which is of concern. If the price of Ripple goes below 38.85 then I will accept I got this trade wrong.
  2. @Mercury, I think it is extremely important to understand what exactly 'money management' is. It is basically all to do with the amount of capital you allocate to a specific trade. In other words the actual size of your position that you trade. One could also add the amount of leverage one uses as part of money management. I personally think stop losses would also be part of money management as it has an impact on the amount of profit / loss one is going to make. Good / sound money management will assist one in making as much profit as possible and at the same time make the amount of losses as low as possible. One could argue that money management is there to reduce / minimise risk. So this in effect could be viewed as 'risk management'. The one thing you forgot to mention was 'trading risk'. Now, I love playing Poker. Poker can be a simple and fun game on a basic level. However on a more higher level it is all about odds and probability. Trading risk is all about the probability of losing a trade and the capital being used to trade. My answer to your question 1. is another question - Does it really matter? Stop losses are an important part of trading and risk management / money management. My answer to question 2. is that I tend to use a trailing stop which I use to trail my stop loss below the previous swing low until the price goes through it. I am also an advocate of moving averages. For short term trades I sometimes will use a stop loss when the price goes below the 20 DMA. For medium term trends - 100 DMA and for longer term trends - 200 DMA. I also sometimes use base stop losses when the faster moving average goes below the slower moving average and I would then exit my long trade. If the faster moving average goes above the slower moving average then I would exit my short trade. When there is a strong trend demonstrated by the price action then from my experience the price tends to move away from the moving averages. When the trend gets weaker it tends to move nearer to the moving averages. I find that the moving averages can act more as support and resistance. It would be interesting to see how others set their stop losses and what their trading style is.
  3. @Mercury, I don’t mean historical trades but in real time like I have done. So your next new trade whether it be long or short. ??
  4. Disclosure: I have an equity stake in this business and am a shareholder. I have included the link to Pod Point below as some of you may find the company very interesting. https://pod-point.com
  5. @Mercury, I am more than happy to share my personal trading information such where I set my stop losses but I too out of interest would like to know what asset you open a trade on next (both long and short) and at what price you enter and at what price you set your stop loss. Let me or the IG Community know and I am more than happy to share my stop loss details if I am still in Ripple due to extreme volatility that is possible or sharp trend reversal which is just as likely. Make no mistake this trade along with Stellar is extremely high risk at this juncture. However, I wanted to put 'my money were my mouth is' and share actual physical trades with the IG Community. This is one area which still needs to improve. Posters on the IG Community need to share actual physical trades like I have done on Orange Juice, Lumber, etc. in the past. I am sure if one looks hard enough then there will be something that one can trade based on 'technical indicators'. I look forward to seeing trading details of others so that I too can learn and improve.?
  6. @Caseynotes, Yes I see your viewpoint. I have mentioned this in posts before so apologies if you already know but I have invested in a start up called Pod Point over three years ago. It manufacturers and installs electric car chargers and its mission is to do so wherever there is a need for a car to remain in its place for an hour or more. So for example homes, shopping centres, work offices, etc.
  7. @Mercury, I take you the point you raise in your second paragraph and in my opinion it is certainly a short term trend change. Whether it is a long term trend change we will find out shortly but it is for me approaching a mid term trend change. I will be interested in knowing when you place your next trade and at what price like I have shared with the IG Community for Ripple and Stellar. Now I totally appreciate that the trades may end up being quite short due to the volatility or sharp trend reversal but we will see.
  8. STELLAR and RIPPLE are the only Cryptocurrencies at the moment that are trading above their 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages that are offered on IG's Spread Betting platform.
  9. STELLAR and RIPPLE are the only Cryptocurrencies at the moment that are trading above their 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages that are offered on IG's Spread Betting platform.
  10. @Caseynotes, you are on the right theme. Uranium and Lithium demand could rocket with electric cars and lots of gadgets requiring battery power. Would you invest rather than trade here?
  11. This is some fascinating news in relation to Stellar that I thought I would share with the IG Community. Blockchain Announces $125 Million 'Airdrop' of Stellar Cryptocurrency http://fortune.com/2018/11/06/blockchain-stellar/ Stellar is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and now above its 200 day moving average. I have opened a long position with a wider than usual stop loss to try and ensure I do not get stopped out due to the potential of extreme volatility. I have included the link to the latest Crypto Coin Market Caps. https://coinmarketcap.com I think Stellar has lots of potential and its current market cap is a fraction off $5 billion. I think it has the potential to reach similar market caps of Ether and Ripple and hit the $20 billion levels. If it can or even exceed this if one thinks Ether and Ripple have further upside then the returns on Stellar could be staggering. I wanted to get in as early as possible on both Ripple and Stellar before the 'herd mentality' arrives and to give me the biggest chance of catching most of any potential monster move that may come. I have been waiting for the price action and moving averages to indicate to me to open a long position as there was no justification in doing so prior. The risk is a sharp trend reversal and I am stopped out hence the slightly wider than usual stop loss. If the trade goes against me then the key is not to worry and move on. One must not feel embarrassed or ashamed of any losing trades. I have experienced many losing trades in my time and I have had more losses than winners in my time. My fewer winners have outperformed my many losers to ensure I can continue trading. This trade could go against me relatively quickly but that is that fine and one must be comfortable with the amount of risk taken. I have taken this trade based on price action and the signals the 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA have presented me. Initial stop loss and then switch to trailing stop loss when in profit. I will have a very difficult decision to make should the trend be strong upwards as to whether I add to my positions. I know I should and would normally when trading Commodities but Cryptocurrencies is a 'different beast' altogether so I will need to think about it. If the trade goes against me then I will not have this difficult decision to make. My experience tells me that when Cryptos go up strongly over a couple of days then this is usually followed by sharp drops 'red days' which is partly down to profit taking by short term traders so I will need to keep a close eye on the price behaviour.
  12. I have just come across this article which is rather interesting. Morgan Stanley Report Shows Strong Institutional Investment for Bitcoin https://cointelegraph.com/news/morgan-stanley-report-shows-strong-institutional-investment-for-bitcoin
  13. Ripple is currently trading above its 20, 50, 100 and now just surpassed its 200 day moving average. I have opened a long position on Ripple. It is up 9% today and the chart is looking far stronger than other Cryptocurrencies with Stellar following it nicely. There have been some very positive news releases regarding Ripple too which have supported the price rises after the consolidation period. I also wanted to get in as early as possible in case there is a monster rally and certainly before the 'herd mentality' decide to join the party. The risk is a sharp trend reversal which stops me out. Therefore my stop is more wider than I usually would like to ensure I don't get stopped out due to the volatility which can be vicious in Crypto trading. I fully expect there to be sharp corrections along the way unless the reported decline in volatility in Bitcoin et al is seen going forwards.
  14. Ripple (XRP) Briefly ‘Flippens’ Ethereum to Become 2nd-Largest Cryptocurrency https://www.ccn.com/ripple-xrp-briefly-flippens-ethereum-to-become-2nd-largest-cryptocurrency/
  15. I though this article would be of interest to some of you. The Number of Bitcoin Short Positions Just Hit a 3-Month Low https://www.coindesk.com/the-number-of-bitcoin-short-positions-hits-3-month-low/
  16. @Caseynotes, It is a shame IG do not offer the commodity 'Uranium' on its Spread Betting platform for its clients to trade. I found this though!
  17. FTSE 100 is a whisker above its 20 day moving average. If it trades below that then depending on whether there is any negative news and sentiment in the market about the UK economy, Brexit, news released from FTSE 100 constituents, and results released by companies in the FTSE 100, it could go down another leg!
  18. @Mercury, 1. Agree with you based on current price action. I doubt you will find a single person who can see any upside potential based on current price behaviour. If anyone does come forward then it will be based on fundamental analysis. These would be more long term traders and investors in Oil. 2. I do not do road maps so no comments. 3. For me I am saving my capital for Cryptocurrencies so cannot allocate any capital to Oil right now but it is trading below its 20, 50, 100 and now 200 day moving averages so anyone looking to seriously short oil would either already have done so or would certainly do so now based on the price action and current trend direction. One may want to look at the strength of the trend, momentum and volume to support any decision making but the ingredients seem to be in place for a short trade as you would be trading with the trend rather than against it thus increasing your odds/chances of success in the trade.
  19. @Caseynotes, Totally agree with your comments. I could not have worded it any better. At times there are a lot of charts being posted with: Arrows here Arrows there Predictions here, there and everywhere Apologies that was the poet in me.? It would be interesting to know how much technical analysis algorithmic 'black box' traders use. They use 'speed' as they're 'edge' and can enter positions microseconds before others. I would be interested to know if their computerised system uses many of the technical analysis theories and whether it is programmed within their computer system? Would anyone know? How much technical analysis would such traders use?
  20. From the chart (daily) one could infer that the bigger the move up the bigger the correction when it arrives. @Nelsy-Boy, yes you are right it would be super aggressive as one would think the next leg up in Apple will shortly commence but that does not necessarily mean it would be the wrong move. For me one should consider the following: Trend Strength Volume Volatility Momentum Let me know whether your next long candle supports a short move or not.
  21. @elle, First of all excellent thread and excellent question posted. From the chart (daily) it seems like a correction was due and some will love this opportunity to top up or buy on the dips. The price has gone below its 20 DMA, 50 DMA and 100 DMA. However at this point in time the price is still above its 200DMA so for me the current trend is down but the longer term trend is still in tact. If the price crossed the 200 DMA then I would say it could be leading to the end of the trend but this has not been confirmed just yet. The key question which presents itself here is whether one would short Apple right now. I think a more aggressive trader would have opened up a short as soon as the 20 DMA had been crossed but certainly before the 50 DMA was crossed. The one thing I have noticed on IG Community in general is a lack of discussion around short trades especially when the opportunities are presenting themselves yet there seems to be little discussion. I tried on my Lumber thread but did not get much discussion and Lumber was a brilliant short trade. When would some of you within the IG Community consider shorting Apple? What would need to happen to the price for you to consider opening a short?
  22. @Mercury, It is fine to have different views and that is perfectly normal. I am a more simplistic trader using price action and moving averages to identify trends to trade within Commodities and Cryptocurrencies. I follow strict rules and apply discipline. You are a more detailed analytical trader who uses all those many technical analysis tools listed above. I am sure you have strict rules and apply discipline. For Commodities I will try and establish why the price is behaving the way it is using fundamental analysis but my decision will still only be solely based on price action. The fundamental helps me to understand why the price may moving in the particular direction. For Cryptocurrencies I also do plenty of reading and research on a daily basis so that I am more or less in tune with the latest news in this arena. News release is key when trading Cryptocurrencies but again my trading decisions are solely based on price action.
  23. This article indicates to me that 'Tokens' are going gain some serious traction and as a result Cryptocurrencies are not going to fail anytime soon. SEC Official Says 'Plain English' Guidance On ICOs Is Coming https://www.coindesk.com/sec-official-says-plain-english-guidance-on-icos-is-coming/
  24. @Mercury, that is fair enough. This article is interesting as Bitcoin's volatility is reducing and the charts show us this. However what we have recently witnessed is a lot of volatility in equity markets. Bitcoin futures volatility sets record low https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-futures-volatility-sets-record-low-2018-11-05
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