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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. , This article is a bit misleading depending on your perspective. It states 22% of Bitcoin investors used borrowed money for trading. For example, I have traded Bitcoin using IG's spread betting facility and as a result have traded Bitcoin but never actually acquired it. It is the physical purchase and sale of the digital asset, Bitcoin, that moves the price either up or down. So the 22% who borrowed money did not use it to physically acquire Bitcoin but to merely speculate on the price movement. I suppose this is a dangerous form of leverage! Of these 22% they may only account for say 1% of the total Bitcoin market in terms of quantity and value of Bitcoin. It is reported that 1000 people control 40% of the Bitcoin market. It is these people who move the Bitcoin price. The other question is how have Coin Telegraph (Don't get me wrong, I look at their articles daily) have acquired this information? How credible is their reporting and how accurate are their sources? Do they hold any hard evidence of such statistics?
  2. , I think Turtle Trader would be a good one to start with. If you are familiar with the film Trading Places with Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd then you be familiar with the bet that was placed. I will write no more and you will understand what I mean when you read this book. In terms of adding to your position as the price increases then this is all dependant on your 'war chest'. By this I mean the amount of capital you have and the amount % you have decided to allocate to each trade / investment. I generally do not allocate all my funds on the first trade. The reason for this is quite simply if I get my trade wrong then the amount of capital I could lose is minimised. Say for example I open with a position of 1% and then the price increases. I could then add another 1% once the trade is in profit. I could keep adding until I have reached my allocated %. This could be 3%, 5% or whatever you have decided. As the price increases, I tend to move my stop loss behind the price to really protect my profits. The reason why I trade / invest in this way is if I get my trade wrong and my allocated capital was going to be say 5% and I have only initially invested 1% then I have minimised the amount I can lose on the trade depending on the stop loss level. The position would be smaller than if I had invested the full 5% straight away. I hope that I have explained that clearly and that it makes sense. Also as a result of the strategy I have adopted then I would only allocate my full capital target if the price really breaks out and gathers a lot of momentum. When this happens then the more frustrating thing is not having the necessary capital to take advantage. For me the key is to minimise losses and to take them quickly. It took me quite a few years to really accept this and execute such a view. One must preserve their capital so that should a trend arise that is going to make a trader / investor a lot of money in a short period of time then that capital is there. Taking small losses is far better and more effective than taking fewer but much bigger losses. Taking losses is extremely difficult which is why I always set stop losses which helps take the emotion out of the decision. It is easy to write about taking losses but it took me many years to really appreciate and adopt the words and sentences I have just written!
  3. I have an iPhone and I find the charting absolutely awful on the app. I think due to the smaller screen than say an iPad or iMac, I find using iPhone not a sensible or efficient option for charting and even just general viewing of charts.
  4. , I like the opportunity that IG provides it clients to spread bet on Bitcoin. At the moment I have no interest in physically acquiring Bitcoin or any other Cryptocurrencies as at this moment there is no confirmation that Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency of choice for the future within digital currencies. At present Bitcoin is not a widely adopted method of payment though it is slowly increasing but the pace is slow. I merely want to speculate on the price movement and look to maximise profit making opportunities. This is where spread betting is a good tool using leverage and risk management to profit from the price action of Bitcoin. Also capital is not tied up in actual acquiring of Bitcoin. TrendFollower
  5. , are you familiar with the trend following books such as Turtle Trader, Way of the Turtle, Market Wizards, etc? If you have not read them then you may appreciate and enjoy them. My philosophy is to try and never trade or invest against the trend. I tend to 'pyramid' upwards. So for example if I was looking at entering a trade or investment on the long side then I would enter the position and then as the price went upwards I would look to add on strength whenever there were dips using (oscillators) to assist me. I have made a few mistakes like you in the past on shares which were possibly more higher risk. I learnt some very harsh lessons where on the balance of probability the chances to making any money on such a strategy is less likely. It is possible but you require some luck and hope. They are not good ingredients to be a profitable trader / investor. When you average down like your example and the price keeps going against you then you need some mouthwatering and staggering returns just to breakeven. Also from my experience there is normally a reason and a very good one why the share price keeps declining. The stock market generally operates on a future discounting mechanism of around six months in the future so the declining share price is telling us something very important on how the market views the prospects of the company.
  6. , yes I read this story too. Interesting. The question for me now is whether this is a false move to sucker new investors in or whether Bitcoin will hit a new all time high this year in 2018? I think one of these options will happen and I think it is more likely to be that Bitcoin makes a new all time high this year. If I am wrong then I am wrong but that is my call at this moment in time. If other people think like this as well all over the world then there could be another monumental move coming in Bitcoin. If not then $1000 it is! Also until a clear winner emerges in the Cryptocurrency space then I think Bitcoin will remain the Crypto with the biggest market cap.
  7. I did with some leverage via a spread bet position on IG's platform. The key is using leverage to maximise profits when there is such a strong trend. Of course risk management is crucial which goes without saying. I am not sure what you mean 5000 odd upside. Had anyone entered it's lowest point over the past few months then 15000 odd upside plus counting. Now add leverage to this and the trade begins to make sense. I did not get in at the lowest point of course as a trend follower I will never enter at the lowest point and never sell at the highest point. It is the chunk of the middle bit that I participate in.
  8. Lumber hit my $50000 target today as I expected and suggested previously. I know was a bit sceptical but I think experience in such markets provides the platform for such price targets. There are times when historical price behaviour based on charts cannot be replied upon to indicate future price moves. Lumber hit $50347. The question now is does Lumber go on and make new highs or does it correct in a major way due to speculative money forcing it above $50000? I think fundamental news will be key with supply and demand and this along with technicals will determine the future price action. It may even go up to $51000 or $52000 which may sucker traders in who enter established trends on new highs. This is very dangerous as there can be a trend reversal imminently. It could go up and then a big drop could follow. Lets see what happens. For all those with long positions just make sure you all have stops in place and please do take your profits on this monumental trade. You can always go back in if the need ever arises. However whilst the price action is going up then just hold. As they say let your winners run. It is all about profit maximisation. Your stop loss should be set in such a way that it only gets triggers on an established trend reversal.
  9. , , Congratulations to both of you. , thank you for the book list. Very much appreciated. I must admit I have not read Hedge Funds Market Wizards. I have read the previous two which are fantastic books.
  10. , Thank you very much for awarding me 1st prize. It is an honour I am extremely grateful. TrendFollower
  11. Yes a very strong chart showing positive and upward price behaviour.
  12. https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-can-help-uk-stay-relevant-after-brexit-says-eu-lawmaker/
  13. The price action of Lumber has a lot to do with the Canadian market and the tariff the US has put on the Lumber coming in from Canada. Trump is looking at a 20% tariff on all Canadian Lumber. However, it is not just the Canadian angle that is causing the spike in Lumber prices. There have been major fires in the US and a major fire in Canada. Generally if you look back historically, when ever there are supply and demand issues the price generally tends to go up.
  14. $37320 hit today. It seems the rain that never fell in Argentina and potential short covering has led to this recent rally. Argentina is a big player in the Soybean Meal market. It will be interesting to see what happens next.
  15. $49836 was hit today. This is either going to hit the magical $50000 tomorrow or tease us and another drop coming.
  16. I am only basing my comments on what I have read. Generally speaking 'Swing Traders' would hold a position anywhere from two days to say a couple of weeks. It is rare that a 'Swing Trader' would hold a position for a month, several months or even a year. If there are then these would be in the minority and would be extreme examples. I can understand as an intraday trader yourself why you would be looking for swings. But intraday traders do have time frames so it does matter. You can even build a time frame strategy built into your trading plan!
  17. A lot of people do not really understand swing trading. In simplistic terms someone who day trades would enter a position at the start of the day and close it by the end of the day. In swing trading a position can be open several days and even a couple of weeks. I personally follow a trend trading perspective. I see swing trading in terms of length of time a position is held as somewhere in between a day trader and a trend trader. It is suggested that large caps are most suited to swing trading. I thing swing traders look to maximise profits in a shorter timescale than say a trend trader and they will also minimise losses as will exit far quicker too. I think it is important to establish what one is going to swing trade first and the methodology behind how to select the swing trades.
  18. I can see that Crude Oil prices have broken past the support. Going through the 59.00 level was key. It will be interesting to see if prices test support near the 50 day moving average of around 57.00. There looks to be a upward trend line that is around the 61.75 level. For me momentum is going to be important. It seems a little bit negative to me.
  19. Soybean Meal is up another 860 odd points. Current price at time of writing is 35957. Soybean Meal hit a two and a half year high. The price behaviour seems to be based on the weather conditions. This is based on dryness in Argentina. From a fundamental perspective you have US and China trade relation issues. US exports were cancelled. When Fundamental and Technicals meet then it increases the chances of a move in favour of the direction in which the trend is travelling.
  20. After the bounce do you think there is potentially another leg up for Oil or simply another leg downwards?
  21. The 4 hour chart seems to be indicating the potential for the next leg up.
  22. , First of all thank you. I just watched the 30 mins or so Q & A and some of my questions were asked. This was a very good idea in principle. However, I was a bit disappointed that two so called 'Blockchain' experts / consultants thought Stellar was centralised and not decentralised. That would be Ripple! Also they did not state anything of any significance that would help me. I think it was for people who did not know what cryptocurrencies and blockchain were. However even for those people within in the 30 mins they did not even explain what cryptocurrencies or blockchain was. So for beginners I don't think it was particularly useful. It was not clear to me who the audience was and the how meaningful the 30 mins of Q & A actually was. I was disappointed but I still think the concept is a good one. The next one needs significantly improve to justify someone sitting and watching it for around 30 mins. TrendFollower
  23. You may want to look at Canada, Gibraltar and Switzerland. I have not done any research but am merely just suggesting off the cuff. These countries seem to have embraced Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.
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